bill kuo developmental testbed center: overview, status and future direction

Bill Kuo

Developmental Testbed Center: Overview, Status and Future

Direction

OutlineBrief history of DTCDTC management structureHighlights of recent DTC accomplishmentsOn-going activities for FY2010Proposed DTC AOP for FY2011Future direction and challenges

Fundamental Purpose of DTCTo serve as a bridge between research and operations to facilitate the activities of both halves of the NWP Community

– Research: functionally equivalent operational environment to test and evaluate new NWP methods over extended retrospective periods

– Operational: benefits from DTC T & E of strengths and weaknesses of new NWP advances prior to consideration for operational implementation

NCAR/RAL & NOAA/ESRL

8-Member WRF Executive Oversight Board (existing)

AFWA NCAR NCEP OAR ARL FAA NRL OON ARL

DTC Executive Committee

AFWA NCAR NWS OAR(EC provides agency oversight and policy guidance, and sets high-level priorities.)

External CommunityScience Advisory Board

DTC

Director

Management Board(Director + Deputy. Dirs.)

DTC Management Structure*

*Blue indicates structure established by proposed DTC Charter

Management Structure Day-by-day management of DTC: Bill Kuo (Director), Steve Koch

(ESRL/GSD Director), Barb Brown (NCAR/RAL/JNT Director), Louisa Nance (DTC Assistant Director)

Priorities set by funding agencies with guidance from Science Advisory BoardExecutive

CommitteeMembers from funding agencies

Appoint DTC director, and provide executive oversight; Approve DTC AOP and budget; Approve membership of MB and SAB

Management Board (MB)

Director, deputy directors, members from funding organizations

Work with DTC Director to prepare DTC Annual Operating Plan (AOP) and budget; Assist DTC Director with the execution of DTC tasks

Science Advisory Board (SAB)

Members from operational and research communities

Provide advice to DTC Director on strategic direction and objectives; Review DTC Visitor Program proposals; Recommend codes for DTC testing

Brief history of DTCEstablished in 2003, initially funded by

USWRPTwo major functions of DTC:

Providing support for the community codes:WRF, HWRF, GSI, and MET

Performing testing and evaluation of community codes for research and operation:WRF test plan, DTC winter forecast experiment, WRF

Rapid Refresh core test, Extended core test, High-Resolution Hurricane (HRH) test, and Reference Configuration testing.

DTC Charter was signed in Sep. 2009, formally establishing the governing structure of DTC

For FY2010, DTC has a budget of ~$5M, and ~25 FTE (involving about 45 staff in NCAR/RAL and ESRL/GSD)

Past DTC FundingFunding Sources: NOAA, NCAR, AFWA, FAA (FY06,07), NSF

AFWA+ NOAA+HFIP 7

DTC Activity Time Line

Mar-03 Jan-04 Nov-04 Sep-05 Jul-06 Apr-07 Feb-08 Dec-08 Oct-09

WRF Test Plan DWFENMM5 CONUS

WRF-RRCore Test

ExtendedCore Test

HRH

NMM Tutorials Joint Tutorials

MET

GSI

HWRF

1st VisitorProgram

1st AO

05-06

2nd AO 3rd AO

07-08 08-09

RCsWRFRR-VL

HWT HWT

Community Codes

VisitorProgram

Test & Evaluate NWP Systems

DTC Organization & TasksDTC Director’s

Office

WRFWRF for

Hurricanes

GSI MET HMT HWT DET NEMS

DTC Visitor Program

WRF: WRF modeling systemWRF for Hurricanes: HWRF, AHW, HFIPGSI: Grid-point Statistical Interpolation data assimilation systemMET: Model Evaluation ToolsHMT: Hydrometeorology Testbed collaborationHWT: Hazardous Weather Testbed collaborationDET: DTC Ensemble TestbedNEMS: NOAA Environmental Modeling System

Two major functions of DTC:

A. Provide support for community systems

B. Conduct testing and evaluation of community systems for research and operations

DTC Tasking and FY10 Funding

Task areas Funding sourcesDTC Director’s office:

$623KVisitor program: $222KWRF (Wolff): $698KHWRF (Bernardet): $1,197KGSI (Huang): $622KMET (Fowler): $395KHMT (Tollerud): $323KHWT (Jensen): $148KDET (Toth): $651KNEMS (Carson): $173K

NOAA Core: $2,900K

HFIP: $328KUSWRP: $300KAFWA: $825KNCAR: $300KGSD: $300KNSF: $100KTotal budget:

$5,053KCollaborations with other testbeds

DTC Funding and ConstraintsNOAA OAR line item ($2.9M): General

guidance from “Program Change Summary (PCS)”. Considerable flexibility. AOP is a “proposal” that substitutes the PCS.

AFWA ($825K): Specific Statement of Work and deliverables. Limited flexibility. (P.M.: Steve Rugg)

USWRF ($300K): Specific Statement of Work and deliverables. Limited flexibility. (P.M.: Marty Ralph)

HFIP ($328K): Specific Statement of Work and deliverables. Limited flexibility. (P.M.: Fred Toepfer, Bob Gall)

NCAR, GSD ($300K each): FlexibleNSF ($100K): dedicated to Visitor Program

Community Code GoalsA free and shared resource with distributed

development and centralized supportDTC currently supports the following software

packages to the community: WRF: NWP model + pre- and post-processors * *WRF for Hurricanes (coupled atmosphere and ocean

system) * *Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Data

Assimilation System*Model Evaluation Tools (MET) – Verification package

Provide direct assistance through an email helpdesk for each software package * *

Facilitate community contributions to the respective code repositories

Support community outreach events (tutorials/workshops) * *

-in collaboration with MMM* and EMC*

GSI R2O Transition Procedure (draft)

Community research

Code development

candidate

Code development

candidate

1. GSI Review Committee Initial Scientific Review2. DTC-developer code merging and testing3. GSI Review Committee code and commitment review4. DTC->EMC GSI code commitment5. EMC->DTC GSI repository syncing

1 DTC branch

2

DTC branch

EMC branch

3

EMC trunkDTC trunk45

GSI Transition: O2R and R2OPast (two years

ago?) Distributed

developmentDifferent

applications and operational requirement (GFS, RTMA, NAM, RR, AFWA…)

Manual version control

No system documentation

limited system support (for GSI partners and community)

Non-portable system

CurrentGSI Review Committee

(DTC, NCEP/EMC, NASA/GMAO, NOAA/ESRL, NCAR/MMM-AFWA)

Multiple platform GSI system supported by DTC

SVN version control (Duel repositories with synced trunk and localized development branches)

Completed GSI User’s Guide and website

Annual community release and residential tutorial

Community user support by DTC ([email protected])

R2O infrastructure and application

mailto:[email protected]

HWRF Accomplishments – Past & FutureCommunity Code

Ongoing support for users of WRF for Hurricanes

Community WRF code baseline for 2011 implementationHWRF configuration in the general WRF code repositoryTests of community version to show skill equivalent to

operational HWRF used in 2008 and 2009

TestingHWRF testing infrastructure on njet (on-going) Run full end-to-end HWRF system (on-going)Collaborate with EMC & HFIP HWRF developers

on testing & evaluation of new capabilities for NCEP operations (on-going)

H050 (V2 Baseline)

HWR1 (V3.2 Baseline)

H56C (2010 HWRF)

HWRE (2010 V3.2+)

From Vijay (EMC)

Comparison to qualify WRF community code to be used as a baseline for 2011

Ligia Bernardet

Track error, but for East Pac.

New Thrust in FY2010: DTC Ensemble Testbed (DET)

Ensembles are used increasingly as a basis for forecasts in aviation weather, convective outbreaks, and major snowstorms.

Goals for DTC Ensemble Testbed:Establish and support community ensemble modeling

infrastructure to facilitate research in ensemble predictionConduct testing and evaluation of key components of

ensemble systems to support research and operationCollaborate with research community to test and evaluate

proto-type ensemble forecasting systemsCollaborate with EMC on the development of next

generation SREF, and use it as a benchmarkServe as a critical element of the National

Mesoscale Probability Prediction (the “White Paper”) effort

Anticipated DTC Ensemble Testbed (DET) Accomplishments

Six-module infrastructure designed for DET

Initial development of ensemble configuration & initial perturbation modules

Preliminary DET Testing & Evaluation Plan

DET Ensemble Workshop (18-19 August 2010) - review DET technical design

WRF Ensemble Working Group re-activated to provide technical advice on the DET

Module 1: Configuration

Module 2: Initial

Perturbations

Module 4:

Statistical Post-Processi

ng

External

Sources (HMT, HFIP, HWT, etc...)

Module 3: Model

Perturbations

Module 5:

Product Generat

ionModule

6: Verificati

on

New Thrust in FY2010:NEMS model software framework

NOAA has adopted ESMF and developed NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) framework

• All EMC modeling systems are migrating toward NEMS software framework, including NMM-B, SREF, GSI, and HWRF.

• DTC must become familiar with the NEMS software framework in order to be an effective conduit between research and operation.

• DTC recently hired a DTC software engineer at EMC to work with EMC NEMS team and participate in the transition of WRF modeling system (including ARW and NMM) to the NEMS software framework.

• DTC is organizing a model software framework workshop in October 2010 to promote collaboration and communications on model framework

Plan for FY2011Anticipate level budget with FY2010 (with

contributions from partners at roughly the same as those of FY2010)

Proceed with the development of DTC Ensemble Testbed

Participate in the NEMS developmentContinue to support WRF, HWRF, MET and

GSI to the communitiesAllocate DTC resources to the various tasks

at similar levels of FY2010 (no major change expected)

No plan to take on new initiatives (unless additional resources become available)

Future Direction and ChallengesModel software framework:

WRF community remains on WRF CMI (Common Model Infrastructure)

NCEP moving its modeling systems to NEMSHow do we maintain effective path between

O2R and R2O?Data assimilation:

GSI community repository has an excellent start

Community is migrating toward 4D-Var and hybrid

Need to work with EMC and the community toward a hybrid system that can effectively support research and operations

Need to develop strong linkage between data assimilation and ensemble

Future Direction and Challenges:Hurricanes:

HWRF’s performance has been less than desirable over the past few seasons

HFIP is moving toward multiple model ensemble (e.g., HWRF, AHW, COAMPS, GFDL)

What is DTC’s role in hurricane prediction and HFIP?Working with EMC to improve the performance of

HWRFApplication of DET to support hurricane predictionWhat hurricane prediction systems should DTC

support to the community?

Future Direction and Challenges:DTC Ensemble Testbed:

The community strongly endorses this effort. However, the community also would like to see this effort accelerated.

Testing of various components of ensemble will require considerable computing resources.

Need to develop stronger linkage with HWT, HMT, and HFIP

Need to provide community support for DET ensemble infrastructure

Performance Measure:How do you measure the success of DTC?Some of the impacts are difficult to measure

quantitatively

SummaryDTC is a community facility dedicated to

supporting the transition between research and operations in NWP.

DTC has come a long way since its inception. We now have a well established facility and management structure.

Advances in computing technology and modeling science are causing rapid changes in NWP in various areas, for example: ensemble, advanced data assimilation, and cloud-resolving global model.

By working closely with research and operational communities, DTC has the potential to make significant contributions to the U.S. atmospheric science community, allowing U.S. to regain its pre-eminent position in NWP.

Questions to SAB:Is DTC taking on too much and spreading

too thin?Is the on-going effort appropriate for the

DTC?Is the resources allocation reasonable?Is DTC on the right track? What are your recommendations for DTC’s

future direction?

THANK YOU!

Louisa Nance

DTC Director’s Office & Visitor Program

Director’s Office ResponsibilitiesInternal Coordination

Manage and coordinate DTC tasksPlanning, budgeting, execution and reporting

External CommunicationConduct or assist with workshops and tutorialsInteract with DTC partners on collaborative

effortsMaintain the DTC WebsiteProvide administrative support for DTC EC, MB

& SAB meetingsHost the DTC Visitor Program

Director’s OfficeManagement

Bill Kuo – Director (0.5 FTE)Louisa Nance – Assistant Director

(0.5 FTE)Barb Brown – JNT Director (0.10

FTE)JNT DTC Manager (0.25 FTE)

Steve Koch – GSD Director (0.10 FTE)GSD DTC Manager (0.25 FTE)

Administrative SupportPam Johnson (0.50 FTE)

Travel: $30 KExternal committee

meeting support: $36 K

Materials & Supplies: $10 K

Computers: $25 K

Total FTEs: 2.20 FTEs

Major accomplishments - past 6 monthsInternal Coordination

DTC staff retreatMonthly staff / task lead meetings

External CommunicationFacilitated AOP 2011 discussions with

operational centersCompleted implementation of DTC Management

StructureMB teleconference meeting (May 2010)1st face-to-face meeting of DTC Executive Committee

(26 August 2010)Established the DTC Science Advisory Board

Next 6 months…Planned activities -

Coordinate planning activities for AOP 2011Coordinate strategic planning activitiesProvide support for upcoming workshops and

tutorialsContinue making improvements to DTC websiteImplement tools to assist with task and staff

coordinationMajor accomplishments

AOP 2010 reportAOP 2011 document and budgetDraft Strategic Plan for next 5 years

DTC Visitor Program – AOP 2010Major accomplishments – past 6 months

Proposal to NSF for $100 K funded (double past contributions)Total budget for visitor projects: $200 K

Distributed Announcement of Opportunity to communityFocus areas based on input from MBRevamped program to increase support for PIs and

added graduate student option

Planned activities – next 6 monthsSelect projects to be funded based on SAB

recommendations and MB approval

DTC Visitor ProgramReceived 22 proposals in response to AO

Type of support14 PI

7 graduate student1 PI or graduate student

TopicsEnsembles (1)Verification (8)Data assimilation (5) – including data impact studiesModel testing (6)New model features (2)

Estimate available funds to support 6-7 projects

Challenges for DTC Visitor ProgramHow can the DTC make its visitor program more

effective?Current funding level limits the types of projects

that can be fundedDTC EC recently recommended expanding the

visitor program to include longer-term targeted R2O projects or a grants program

How does the DTC attract the research community to work on projects relevant to operations?

Should educating and training the next generation of scientists be part of this program’s goals?

Bottom line: The DTC is looking for input from SAB/MB on defining/refining the goals and scope of the DTC Visitor Program

Jamie Wolff

WRF Task:Community Support & Test and Evaluation

Collaborators:

NESL/MMMESRL/GSD

NCEP/EMC

ESRL/GSD

NCEP/EMC

ESRL/GSD

NCEP/EMC

http://www.noaa.gov/

WRF Task GoalsCommunity Support

Maintain, support and facilitate contributions to the community-released code repositories, currently including: WRF * * Post Processing Software *

Support community outreach events * *-in collaboration with MMM* and EMC*

Testing and EvaluationExtensively test and evaluate a variety of model

configurations that will provide benefits to both the operational and research communities

Maintain verification results of primary configurations for subsequent (major) model versions

Community SupportMajor accomplishments - past 6 monthsWRF v3.2 release (April) * *Community outreach and support * *

WRF Workshop: 21 – 25 June 2010WRF Tutorial: 26 July – 6 Aug 2010wrfhelp email support

Buy-in to develop a Code Management Plan for a community post processorAFWA, DTC, EMC, GSD


Testing and EvaluationMajor accomplishments - past 6 monthsPublished/updated online documentation for

past & current WRF T&E activities on the DTC T&E webpage http://www.dtcenter.org/eval

Established several DTC RCshttp://www.dtcenter.org/configBroadly distributed information to the user

community (through wrf-news and WRF Workshop)Established baseline for determining impacts of

future developments

http://www.dtcenter.org/eval

http://www.dtcenter.org/config

Community Support - next 6 monthsPlanned activities

Continue on-going community support * *Enhance WRF Regression testing *Continue transition from WRF Post Processor (WPP)

to Unified Post Processor (UPP) *

Anticipated major accomplishmentsUPP Code Management Plan * * *Community-UPP code repository *WRF Tutorial * *

-in collaboration with MMM*, EMC*, GSD* and AFWA*

Testing and Evaluation - next 6 monthsPlanned activities

Perform evaluation of NAM/GFS Precipitation Forecast Comparison

Retest select RCs with WRF v3.2.1Begin manuscript on DTC T&E methodology

Anticipated major accomplishmentsResults of the NAM/GFS T&E made available to entire

communityPosted on the DTC T&E webpagePresented at relevant conferences

Updates on retested-RCs posted on DTC RC webpage

Community Support - AOP 2011Planned Activities

Maintain / Enhance WRF regression testing *Continue on-going efforts in community support * *Continue to prepare community-UPP software package for

distribution *Extensively testWrite documentationProvide community support upon release

Define a plan for how to facilitate interactions between research and operations into the future given change in environment

Anticipated major accomplishmentsWRF release (v3.3 April 2011) * *Community-UPP version 1.0 release (April 2011) *Tutorials (Jul 2011 and Jan 2012) * *WRF Users Workshop (Jun 2011) *


Testing and Evaluation - AOP 2011Planned activities

Continue expansion of RC testing and evaluation Retest select designated DTC RCs and establish new, as appropriate Encourage submission of CCRCs

Gather sponsor & community input on direction of future testingHost a physics workshop for mesoscale modeling (Spring 2011)Work on publications for DTC methodology and results from

select test activities

Anticipated major accomplishmentsNew/Updated RC results posted on the DTC RC webpage and

presented at relevant conferencesCoordinated efforts on physics improvements promoted within

the communityManuscript(s) published

Resource requirements for AOP 2011Staff Category FTE

Scientists 2.3

Software Engineers 1.55

Students 0.52

Scientists Software Engineers

Dudhia Carson

Fowler Gill

Harrold Halley Gotway

Nance Harrop

Wang Oldenberg

Wolff Slovacek

Associate Scientist II

Ziady

Non-salary Cost

Travel $3K

Workshops $25K

Publications $1.5K

Challenges How does DTC remain relevant to both the operational and research

communities as NEMS is established?What will be the path of WRF?

Continue to offer joint tutorials? Role of DTC in WRF repository maintenance?

Should DTC support (software distribution, documentation, tutorials, help desk) NMM-B to the community? via WRF or NEMS?

With limited funding, how does the DTC conduct enough configuration testing to make an impact on the community as a whole?How many configurations should DTC test in a given year?What will make up the “Performance measure” to show improvement?

How can the DTC promote more rapid advancement in physics?Can DTC help facilitate a coordinated effort among the community to

make progress on physics improvements? Should developers be encouraged to work on a suite rather than individual scheme?

Should the DTC become primarily focused on physics testing? For example, test a physics suite under WRF then retest under NEMS if it shows

promise?

Ligia Bernardet

WRF for Hurricanes

External collaborators:NOAA Environmental Modeling Center

NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryNOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology DivisionUniversity of Rhode Island

WRF for Hurricanes GoalsFacilitate transfer of research to operations by

creating a framework for NCEP and the research community to collaborate

Support the community in using operational hurricane models

Develop and maintain a hurricane testing and evaluation infrastructure at DTC

Perform tests to assure integrity of community code and evaluate new developments for potential operational implementation

Major accomplishments - past 6 monthsRelease of a beta-version of HWRF code to the

community: code management, documentation, support to 122 registered users.

Inclusion of HWRF features in community WRF code, creating a community WRF code with 2010 operational capabilities. Successful tests indicating that community code will be adopted as a baseline for 2011 operational HWRF.

Creation of an infrastructure to run HWRF on jet - being used for extended regression tests to control quality of community code.

WRF V3.1.1

WRF V3.2

WRF V205/2004

07/2009

03/2010

HWRF code management: atmospheric model

HWRF for operations (2011)

oper HWRF2009

oper HWRF2010

Upgrades 2011

48

2010 baseli

ne

Tutorial,

HWRF Beta

release

Potential Contributions from Community & NOAA Research to

HWRF

WRF V3.2.1

(…)

WRF V3.2.1+

1st HWRF releas

e

WRF V3.2.1+

08/2010

09/2010

02/2011

(…)

04/2011 WRF V3.3

Planned activities - next 6 monthsExpand DTC HWRF testing suite by adding

capability to read native GFS data.Qualify DTC HWRF testing suite by repeating a

comprehensive test run on NCEP machine. Results will be used to create a Reference Configuration for the community code.

Expand DTC HWRF testing suite by adding HYCOM.Run test of community code using HYCOM as HWRF

ocean component (instead of POM).Incorporate new developments in WRF code.Prepare for April 2011 Tutorial.

Anticipated major accomplishments - next 6 monthsCompletion of planned HWRF tests (including

HWRF-HYCOM) and dissemination of results. Upgraded HWRF community code (with

operational 2011 features, 3rd nest, revised tracker etc.)

Preparation of HRH manuscript for publication.

Plans for AOP 2011Upgrade testing suite by adding NCEP Unified

Post-Processor (UPP) and ability to run 3 nests (including new coupler).

Participate in EMC developmental and pre-implementation tests. Actual tests are TBD, but could include changes in resolution and physics.

Explore tests of AHW features in HWRF (physics and initialization).

Evaluate HWRF model performance through sensitivity experiments and model diagnostics to understand weaknesses and sources of error.

Anticipated major accomplishments – AOP 2011Hurricane Prediction Test Plan, in collaboration with

HFIP program office.Transition of Community WRF to 2011 HWRF

operations.Tutorial in April 2011.Expanded WRF Community Code with addition of

new developments for HWRF.Expanded HWRF Testing infrastructure on jet with

the addition of new components.Provide input to NCEP pre-implementation

decisions through HWRF testing and evaluation at DTC.


Scientists 4.02



Shaowu Bao Timothy Brown

Ligia Bernardet Laurie Carson

Eric Gilleland Christopher Harrop

Louisa Nance Donald Stark

Jamie Wolff

Associate Scientist

Project Scientist

Non-salary Cost

Travel $10 K

Workshops $20 K

Publications $1.5 K

ChallengesHow can the DTC better serve the hurricane operational

and research communities?How can the research community be attracted, engaged

and supported?How can DTC transition R2O under the constraints of

operational timelines and limited computing resources?`How can DTC best identify the weaknesses of the

operational models and work towards improving them?Should the DTC engage in evaluation of ensemble

hurricane forecasting and explore ensemble configuration (number of members, resolution etc.)?

HWRF in NEMS era: how to foster R-O collaboration under this new framework?

Xiang-Yu (Hans) Huang

Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation Data Assimilation

System

Collaborators: AFWA, NCEP/EMC, NASA/GMAO, NOAA/GSD, NCAR/MMM

GoalsProvide current operational GSI

capability to the research community (O2R);

Provide a framework for distributed development of new capabilities & advances in data assimilation.

Provide a pathway for data assimilation research to operations process. (R2O).

Provide rational basis to operational centers and research community for enhancement of data assimilation technique and systems and, eventually, numerical weather forecast systems.

Major accomplishments - past 6 months

Code Management and Community SupportFormed GSI Review CommitteeCommunity support for multiple platform GSI system

R2O infrastructure and application

GSI T&EConfiguration testingData impact study

GSI R2O Transition Procedure (draft)

Community research

Code development

candidate

Code development

candidate

1. GSI Review Committee Initial Scientific Review2. DTC-developer code merging and testing

• Merge code with the latest GSI trunk version following the GSI coding standard

• Perform the DTC regression test• Perform impact study of the code changes

3. GSI Review Committee code and commitment review4. DTC->EMC GSI code commitment5. EMC->DTC GSI repository syncing

1 Code commitment

candidate(DTC branch)

2

Code commitment candidate

(DTC branch)

Code commitment candidate

(EMC branch)

3

Code in EMC repository

trunk

Code in DTC repository

trunk

45

Planned activities - next 6 monthsMaintain an administrative structure through the GSI Review Committee

Maintain community GSI repository and sync with the EMC primary GSI repository

Enhance GSI community utilities toolsProvide GSI community supportPlan and organize GSI annual residential tutorial

Release new GSI Beta versionFinish GSI testing and evaluation (T&E) in the end-to-end testing system

Anticipated major accomplishments - next 6 monthsImplementation of GSI Review

Committee function Coordination and advisory meeting (quarterly)

GSI code review (weekly)GSI Beta release in February, 2011Report on GSI T&E results

Plans for AOP 2011Code management & supportGSI T&E

• Conduct extensive tests of end-to-end system

• Contribute to R2O transition, coordinate & assist community code commitment

Explore alternative DA methods/systems including collaboration and community support

Reassess the long term strategy of the project

Anticipated major accomplishments – AOP 2011Implementation and improvement of

the GSI Review Committee functionsGSI annual releaseGSI annual residential tutorialGSI benchmark test reportPlan for ensemble based data

assimilation system community service: system testing, collaboration, community support readiness


Scientists 3.2



Kathryn Crosby Don Stark

Hans Huang

Ming Hu

Hui Shao

Chunhua ZhouNon-salary Cost

Travel $18 K

ChallengesCollaboration and coordination:

GSI review committeeDistributed ensemble DA groups

R2O Connection and communication with

the communityImplementation of R2O procedure

T&E Limited staff and expertise (especially

in Ensemble based DA)Objective evaluation tools and utilities

under construction

Tressa L. Fowler

METSupport and Development

In collaboration with NASA, NOAA/ESRL

MET GoalProvide comprehensive, high quality

verification software to NWP community.

Community Support Software Development

Major accomplishments - past 6 monthsMET Support

Expanded Tutorial with more verification background info

MET Help RT ticketingMET Development

Ensemble ToolWWMCA (World Wide Merged Cloud Analysis)

ToolMETViewer GUI development and database

expansion.

Examples from METViewer

Planned activities - next 6 monthsMET Support

Tutorial (Feb 2011).AMS talks featuring MET.

MET DevelopmentVerification workshop (Nov 2010).Incremental improvement for wind verification.Implement MODE time domain.Preliminary investigation of time verification.

Anticipated major accomplishments - next 6 monthsMET Support

Continued outstanding user support.New expanded tutorial.

MET DevelopmentPreliminary methods for verifying through time

identified.CloudSat capability implemented into MET.METViewer alpha release.

Plans for AOP 2011MET Support

Semi-annual tutorials, expanded and improved.MET Development

Annual WorkshopImproved methods for verifying clouds.Research on methods for verifying through

time.Improvements in ensemble methods in

collaboration with DET.Expanded capabilities of METViewer.

Anticipated major accomplishments – AOP 2011MET Support

Improved TutorialsMET Development

Informative workshopMET software release

Improved ensemble, cloud, and time verification. METViewer database and display release.

Workshop Teaser:Time forecasts as Markov ChainsECMWF Forecast “Jumpiness”Verifying cloud fractions as probabilities


Scientists 0.6


Students 0.2


Tressa Fowler Randy Bullock

Tara Jensen John Halley Gotway

Paul Oldenburg

Anne HolmesNon-salary Cost

Travel $6 K

Workshops $25 K

ChallengesMany NWP users are not familiar with

verification, requiring us to promote the science before the software.

Observations come in a huge number of different formats, we only support a few.

Our software could be more user friendly.

bill kuo developmental testbed center: overview, status and future direction

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