bill emanuel program scientist, terrestrial ecology carbon cycle & ecosystems focus area
DESCRIPTION
Overview of NASA Research in Carbon Data Fusion and Data Assimilation Carbon Fusion Workshop, May, 2006. Bill Emanuel Program Scientist, Terrestrial Ecology Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Focus Area. NASA’s Role in Earth Science. 2006 NASA Strategic Plan - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Science MissionDirectorate
Overview of NASA Research in Carbon Overview of NASA Research in Carbon Data Fusion and Data AssimilationData Fusion and Data AssimilationCarbon Fusion Workshop, May, 2006Carbon Fusion Workshop, May, 2006
•Bill Emanuel•Program Scientist, Terrestrial Ecology•Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Focus Area
NASA’s Role in Earth ScienceNASA’s Role in Earth Science
2006 NASA Strategic Plan2006 NASA Strategic Plan
NASA’s Mission: To pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research.
Develop a balanced overall program of science, exploration, and aeronautics consistent with the redirection of the human spaceflight program to focus on exploration.
Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs.
Research activities focus on providing data and information derived from remote sensing systems to answer the following science questions:
• How are global ecosystems changing?
• What changes are occurring in global land cover and land use, and what are their causes?
• How do ecosystems, land cover and biogeochemical cycles respond to and affect global environmental change?
• What are the consequences of land cover and land use change for human societies and the sustainability of ecosystems?
• What are the consequences of climate change and increased human activities for coastal regions?
• How will carbon cycle dynamics and terrestrial and marine ecosystems change in the future?
Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Focus AreaCarbon Cycle & Ecosystems Focus Area
U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)
• President’s Climate Change Research Initiative, June, 2001.
• Integrates the research of 13 Federal agencies.
• Includes the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
• Strategic Plan, July, 2003.• Chapter 7 describes Carbon Cycle research
within the CCSP.
Atmospheric CompositionClimate Variability and ChangeGlobal Water CycleLand-Use/Land-Cover ChangeGlobal Carbon CycleEcosystemsHuman Contributions and Responses
Surface and Aircraft MeasurementsSurface and Aircraft Measurements
T
2002 2010 2012 2014 20152004
Reduced flux uncertainties; global carbon dynamics
Funded
Unfunded
Global Ocean Carbon / Particle Abundance
N. America’s carbon budget quantified
Global Atmospheric CO2 (OCO)
2006 2008
Reduced flux uncertainties; coastal carbon dynamics
NA Carbon NA Carbon Global C Cycle
T = Technology development
Regional carbon sources/sinks quantified for planet
IPCC IPCC
Effects of tropical deforestation quantified; uncertaintiesin tropical carbon source reduced
= Field Campaign
Physiology & Functional Types
Go
als:
Glo
bal
pro
du
ctiv
ity
and
lan
d c
ove
r ch
ang
e at
fin
e re
solu
tio
n;
bio
mas
s an
d c
arb
on
flu
xes
qu
anti
fied
; u
sefu
l ec
olo
gic
al f
ore
cast
s an
d im
pro
ved
clim
ate
chan
ge
pro
ject
ion
s
Vegetation 3-D Structure, Biomass, & Disturbance T Terrestrial carbon stocks &
species habitat characterized
Models w/improved ecosystem functions
High-Resolution Atmospheric CO2 Sub-regional sources/sinks
Integrated global analyses
CH4 sources characterized and quantified
Report
P
Vegetation (AVHRR, MODIS)
Ocean Color (SeaWiFS, MODIS)
Land Cover (Landsat) LDCM Land Cover (OLI)
Vegetation, Fire (AVHRR, MODIS) Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPP) Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPOESS)
Models & Computing Capacity
Case Studies
Process UnderstandingImprovements:
Human-Ecosystems-Climate Interactions (Model-Data Fusion, Assimilation); Global Air-Sea Flux
T
Partnership
N. American Carbon Program
Land Use Change in Amazonia
Global CH4; Wetlands, Flooding & Permafrost
Global C Cycle
Kn
ow
led
ge
Bas
e
2002: Global productivity and land cover resolution coarse; Large uncertainties in biomass, fluxes, disturbance, and coastal events
Systematic Observations
Process controls; errors in sink reduced
Coastal Carbon
Southern Ocean Carbon Program, Air-Sea CO2 Flux
Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Roadmap
TransCom Inverse Model Comparisons TransCom Inverse Model Comparisons
Inverse model solution indicate a net carbon sink in temperate North America.
TransCom. Gurney et al. 2002. Nature 415:626–630. (http://transcom.colostate.edu/)
U.S. North American Carbon ProgramU.S. North American Carbon Program
The central objective of the U.S. North American Carbon Program is to measure and understand carbon stocks and the sources and sinks of CO2, CH4, and CO in North America and in
adjacent ocean regions.
• Approaching 120 projects.• Involving more than 200
investigators.• About 10 major observation &
experimental networks.• A focus for remote sensing
observations and research.• Developing collaboration with
Mexico & Canada.
NACP Science PlanNACP Science Plan
• Published in 2002• Prepared by the U.S. Carbon
Cycle Science Steering Group• Steven Wofsy and Robert
Harriss, Co-Chairs• Describes a broad science
questions, goals, and a framework for a North American Carbon Program.
U.S. NACP Science QuestionsU.S. NACP Science Questions
1. What is the carbon balance of North America and adjacent oceans? What are the geographic patterns of fluxes of CO2, CH4, and CO? How is the balance changing over time? (Diagnosis)
2. What processes control the sources and sinks of CO2, CH4, and CO, and how do the controls change with time? (Attribution/Processes)
3. Are there potential surprises (could sources increase or sinks disappear)? (Prediction)
4. How can we enhance and manage long-lived carbon sinks ("sequestration"), and provide resources to support decision makers? (Decision support)
U.S. NACP GoalsU.S. NACP Goals
• Develop quantitative scientific knowledge, robust observations, and models to determine the emissions and uptake of CO2, CH4, and CO, changes in carbon stocks, and the factors regulating these processes for North America and adjacent ocean basins.
• Develop the scientific basis to implement full carbon accounting on regional and continental scales. This is the knowledge base needed to design monitoring programs for natural and managed CO2 sinks and emissions of CH4.
• Support long-term quantitative measurements of fluxes, sources, and sinks of atmospheric CO2 and CH4, and develop forecasts for future trends.
Observations
U.S. NACP ApproachU.S. NACP Approach
Observations & Experiments Science Results Estimates-Uncertainties
Predictive Models
Experiments
Diagnostic Models
Model-Data Fusion
Dynamic Maps
Decision Support
MultipleMultiple--Scale Scale Observations and ExperimentsObservations and Experiments
µm
m
ha
10 km
1000 km
Downscaling
Verification
Up-scaling
Prediction
NACP Data Assimilation FrameworkNACP Data Assimilation Framework
Integration Figure
4-D atmospheric data: CO2, CH4, CO
Remote sensing of land, oceans
Flux tower data
Land cover, land use, historical, inventory data, in situ ocean data
Forecast winds
surface, airborne,
satellite
Diagnostic modelsdata fusion,retrospective real-time
Surface Atmosphere fluxes (spatially/temporally resolved)
Sum of process data, models
North American sources and sinks for: CO 2, CH4, CO
Meteorological input data (sondes , radiances)
Bottom-up, process models
Mid-Continent Geographic DomainMid-Continent Geographic Domain
USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Major Land Resource Areas summarize distributions of climatic conditions and soil characteristics across the region.
Mid-Continent Intensive StudyMid-Continent Intensive Study
• Develop optimized sampling schemes for field and atmospheric measurements to efficiently monitor regional carbon stocks and fluxes.
• Use top-down approaches to provide a region-level estimate of net carbon fluxes during short periods (weeks) with an accuracy of 10% by increasing spatial and temporal coverage of atmospheric measurements and by enabling improvements in the parameterization of transport/mixing processes in the lower atmosphere.
• Use a variety of bottom-up techniques to provide daily to annual estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes over a region by improving process model structure and parameterization. A hierarchy of field and remote sensing observations should be used for model testing, development of data assimilation techniques, and model parameterization.
• Compare the top-down and bottom-up approaches and iteratively improve the independent approaches on daily to annual time scales.
• Produce carbon stock and flux maps at various levels of spatial and temporal detail, and compare the results of the top-down and bottom-up approaches to diagnose methods.
ClimateProducts(eg Silo)
Obs
Forward model
Model-Dataassimilation
Data Assimilation Approaches – Savanna Systems
Data
MODIS
MODISNBARLSTAlbedo EVI/NDVI(1km, 500m, 250m)
MODIS cluster12 Terabyte16 processor
CSIRO BRS CRCGA
Ground Obs
Ground & atm obs
AVHRR
22 y
ear A
rchiv
e
LUE
, FC, P
FT, structure
HyperspectralMISR
Dynamics
Pro
du
ctio
n (
t C h
a-1
d-1
)
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
time (day since start of period)
0 500 1000 1500
Re
spira
tion
(t C
ha
-1 d
-1)
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
Stocks
ERS-2 ATSR Fire 1995 - 2002
Disturbance
Grazing
AMSRAdvanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer
SRTMShuttle Radar Topographic Mission
Terrain/moisture
Landsat mosaic
Parameters
Compare
LAI, fPAR, GPP, NPP
TOPSTOPS
Observations to Decision SupportObservations to Decision Support