Big Shift or Big Return? Visible Minority Representation in the

2015 ElectionAndrew Griffith

Metropolis Toronto 5 March 2016

Agenda• Riding portrait

• Candidates

• MPs Elected

• Over/under representation

• 33 Visible Majority Ridings

• MP comparison

• Implications

2

Methodology

• NHS and Elections Canada data

• Mix of names, photos, MP profiles, Parliamentary website

• Number of visible minority citizens (15 %), not total population (19 %)

3

Concentration vs Dispersion 2015 Electoral Ridings View of Ethnic Enclaves

50

100

150

200

Ethnic Origin Visible Minorities Religious Minorities015

35218

67

42

77

144

11293

65

182

135

27

< 5% 5-20% 20-50% 50-70% 70% plus4

Growth in Candidates 2015 Visible Minority 2004 - 2015 Elections

5%

9%

14%

18%

Citizens Lib CPC NDP BQ2004 2006 2008 2011 2015

5

2015 Candidates

6

PERCENTAGE OF WOMEN CANDIDATES 2015 ELECTION

13%

25%

38%

50%

Liberal CPC NDP Green Bloc

28%

39%43%

20%

31%

3%

11%13%13%

17%

Visible Minorities Women

Visible Minority Candidates Gender and Party, 33 Visible Majority Ridings

7

VISIBLE MINORITY CANDIDATES BY GENDER IN 33 RIDINGS WITH OVER 50 % VISIBLE MINORITIES

8

17

25

33

Lib CPC NDP

5

77

141817

Men Women

15%

30%

45%

60%

Citizens Overall CPC Cabinet NDP Liberals Other

40%

18%

39%

31%

17%

25%

51%

20%

6%

12%8%8%9%

15%

Visible Minorities Women8

2011 Elections

15%

30%

45%

60%

Citizens Overall Liberal Cabinet CPC NDP Other

27%

41%

17%

48%

27%26%

51%

0%5%6%

16%

21%

14%15%

Visible Minorities Women9

2015 Elections

Voter Turnout Comparing Immigrants to Canadian Born

10

20%

40%

60%

80%

2011 2015 Change

8%

78%

70%

5%

76%71%

14%

70%

56%

< 10 years citizens > 10 years citizens Canadian-born citizens

13%

25%

38%

50%

Visible Minority Women

50%

0%

45%

3%

13%13%

35%

9%

34%

24%

50%

17%

Liberal Cabinet Liberal PS or Equiv CPC Critics CPC Dep CriticsNDP Critics NDP Dep Critics 11

Cabinet and Critics

10%

20%

30%

40%

Visible Minority Women Indigenous

0%

37%

7%

0%

18%

2%5%

21%22%

Liberal Conservative NDP12

Parliamentary Committees Membership 2016 as Share of Caucus

10%

20%

30%

40%

Visible Minority Women

33%

4%

8%

0%

21%

4%

Liberal Chair Conservative Vice-Chair NDP Vice-Chair13

Committee Chairs 2016 Liberal Only

Visible Minority MPs Gender and Party

14

VISIBLE MINORITY CANDIDATES BY GENDER IN 33 RIDINGS WITH OVER 50 % VISIBLE MINORITIES

8

17

25

33

Liberal Conservative NDP

2

1

12

5

27

Men Women

Riding Profiles

• Most VisMin MPs elected in ridings with majority or large number of VisMin citizens

• 20 % elected in ridings where VisMin numbers are small

15

5

4

15

23

Visible Majority Ridings20-50 % VisMin5-20 % VisMin≦ 5 % VisMin

Visible Minority MPs by Province

16

6%

12%

18%

24%

8

15

23

30

ON Quebec British Columbia Alberta

Number VisMin MPs % VisMin Citizens % Provincial Seats

11.8%

16.7%

11.5%

22.3%

13.5%

21.5%

8.2%

21.1%

47

9

27

22.3%

11.5%

16.7%

11.8%

21.1%

8.2%

21.5%

13.5%

Visible Minority MPs Representation by Ethnic Group

17

115

5

6

6

23

South AsianChineseWest AsianBlackArabLatin AmericanSoutheast Asian

Visible Minority MPs Representation by Religion plus Jewish MPs

18

4

6

3

3

911

17

SikhMuslimChristianHinduNo AffiliationJewNot known

Over/Under Representation Compared to Visible Minority Citizens

19

1.8%

3.5%

5.3%

7.0%

South Asian Chinese West Asian Black Arab L American SE Asian

Percentage Total MPs Percentage Total Citizens

33 Visible Majority Ridings• 23 Ontario, 8 BC, 1 Alberta, 1 Quebec

• Two-thirds of candidates (68) and elected MPs (23) visible minority

• 48 percent MPs visible minority men, 21 percent vismin women

• Liberals won all but three (two Conservative, one NDP)

• Popular vote 52.3% Liberal compared to overall 39.5% — majority, not plurality

• 20% gap with Conservatives. 31.6% share, identical to national

• NDP did less well (15.9%) compared to their overall 19.7%

20

Cabinet• Gender parity (15 men, 15 women, plus PM)

• But all 5 supporting ministers, 1 of whom visible minority

• 5 Visible Minority Ministers • 3 men, 2 women • 3 foreign-born • 4 Sikh, 1 Muslim

• 2 Aboriginal (1 woman, 1 man)

• 2 Persons with Disabilities (1 woman, 1 man)

• Diversity and Inclusion committee

21

Parliamentary Secretaries, Other

• 35, of which 12 women (34 percent)

• 8 visible minority (23 percent) • 6 men, 3 women • 6 foreign-born • 3 Black, 3 South Asian (2 Sikh), 1 Chinese, 1 Arab, 1 Latin American

• 1 Aboriginal woman

• Other • Government whips, gender parity but no visible minority • House leaders, 2 men, 1 visible minority (Chinese)

22

Aboriginal Peoples

• 54 Aboriginal candidates (5.3 %)

• 10 elected MPs (3.0 %), up from 7 (2.3 %), compared to 4 % of the population

• 8 Liberal, 2 NDP

• Increase in Aboriginal vote

23

MP Comparison Visible Minority and Not VisMin

24

VISIBLE MINORITY CANDIDATES BY GENDER IN 33 RIDINGS WITH OVER 50 % VISIBLE MINORITIES

20%

40%

60%

80%

Foreign-born Total Foreign-born MPs Gender

25.1%

3.4%

10.2%

31.9%

74.5%

67.8%

Visible Minority Not VisMin

Median age of VisMin MPs 48 compared to 52 for all MPs

Conservative Values• “New Canadians are naturally conservative in

the way they live their lives: they are entrepreneurial; they have a remarkable work ethic; they are ... [an] aspirational class; they want stability; they are intolerant of crime and disorder; they have a profound devotion to family and tradition, including institutions of faith. That whole spectrum of values is conservative …

Former Minister Jason Kenney, 16 June 2010

25

‘Big Shift’ - Not so fast

• Outreach — ‘showing up’ — not enough

• Policies matter: citizenship and immigration restrictions

• Wedge politics weaker than broader values

• Overall campaign message vs boutique politics

26

Conclusion• All parties compete for ethnic votes

• Greater efforts to recruit visible minorities

• Visible minorities well-represented

• But variance among different groups

• Limits to identity/wedge politics

27

Andrew Griffith

Email: agriffith232@gmail.comTwitter: @andrew_griffithLinkedIn: andrewlgriffithFacebook: Andrew Griffith C&MBlog: www.multiculturalmeanderings.wordpress.com

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