big cinema data: analysing global cinema showtimes

Deakin University CRICOS Provider Code: 00113B

THE KINOMATICS PROJECT: AN ASSESSMENT OF USING “SMALL” DATA TO SUPPORT “BIG” DATA

COLIN ARROWSMITH (RMIT UNIVERSITY), ALWYN DAVIDSON, BRONWYN COATE, AND DEB VERHOEVEN (DEAKIN UNIVERSITY)


CONTENTS

• Indian remittances study• Dyadic relationship analysis• The spread of HFR in The Hobbit


GLOBAL EXCHANGE OF IDEAS AND INFORMATION

Appadurai’s 5 Scapes

Mediascape Technoscape

Ethnoscape Ideoscape

Financescape


INDIAN REMITTANCES

Ethnoscape+

Financescape

Understand factors concerned with the diffusion of film across cinemas around the globe in order to better understand the factors that drive diffusion and diversity in domestic film markets

Using India as a case study we explore the relationship between remittance flows and the movement of film around the globe


INDIAN REMITTANCES

• Global showtime database• Remittance values from World

Bank• Migration figures from World

Bank• Population from World Bank• GDP from World Bank• Hofstede’s cultural dimensions

DATA


INDIAN REMITTANCES

Unite

d Ar

ab E

mira

tes

UK

Sing

apor

e

Colom

bia

Thailand USA

New Z

ealand

Nethe

rland

s

Norway

Ireland

Japa

n

Finl

and

Ukraine

Luxe

mbo

urg

Portug

al

Viet

nam

Italy

Chin

aCh

ile

Braz

il0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Percent Indian showtimesRemittances sent to India per capita

Perc

ent

India

n s

how

tim

es R

em

ittance

s sent to

India

per ca

pita


INDIAN REMITTANCES

• The level of remittances are a statistically significant determinant of the volume of screenings of Indian film

• The model predicts that on average if remittances to India increase by 1% then the screening of Indian films in that country will increase by just over 3%

• Exceptions to the rule:• South Africa – co-productions• Austria – mountain landscapes


INDIAN REMITTANCES

• Number of screenings is a stronger indicator than box office

• Level of remittances is the best indicator (from the variables included in the model) to indicate showtimes – more so than migration


DYADIC RELATIONSHIPS

Mediascape+

Ethnoscape

To explore the relationship between countries in the exchange of movies and the measure of the reciprocal nature of these relationships

Dyadic relationships: the inter-relationship between two things of similar kind. A strong reciprocal dyadic relationship is one that has an equal exchange between 2 nodes



ARG

AUS

BEL

BGR

BRA

CAN

CHE

CHLCH

NCO

LDEU GBR ES

PFI

NFR

AGRC

HKG IDN

IND

IRE

ISR

ITA

JPN

KOR

LUXMEX NLD

NORNZL PE

RPH

LPO

LPO

RSG

PSW

ETH

ATW

NUAE UKR USA VE

NVN

MZA

F0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Percentage of US Showtimes



• Global showtime database• Country of Origin and Production

Year - IMDb

DATA

• Determine the number of movies and showtimes produced by each country in 2012/2013 and calculate the number of movies/showtimes exhibited by each country of origin in each of the receiving countries in 2013

• Iterative methodology

METHOD



• Dyadic Analysis:

METHOD

“So, the dyad factor D will be minimum (0) when the inter-market reciprocity is lowest, and it will be maximum (1) when

the inter-market reciprocity is equal.”

where M12 and M21 are the market transfers in both directions from two markets/countries of interest


DYADIC RELATIONSHIPSPercentage of Showtimes per Country

ARG AUS BEL BGR BRA CAN CHE CHL CHN COL

Country of Origin

ARG 2.036301 0.001838 0.000838 0 0.084205 0.000202 0.010712 0.096569 0 0.543741

AUS 1.525619 2.657318 1.213982 2.253801 1.538368 2.114579 1.45467 1.437206 1.503147 1.601627

BEL 0.45283 0.5563 5.469519 0 0.213389 0.274892 1.22801 0.030401 0.000562 0.457077

BGR 0 0.0001 0 0.520461 0.000132 0.202164 0.00073 0.000397 0.002448 0

BRA 0.083999 0.001069 0.007963 0 12.47642 0.018681 0.028485 0 0 0.034368

CAN 2.630982 2.760086 2.608605 2.17216 2.552039 5.397376 2.330637 2.602391 1.285552 3.477882

CHE 0.00139 0.043867 0.158637 0 0.051885 0.009022 4.911795 0.000199 0 0

CHL 0.003648 0.002138 0.00021 0.121441 0.002578 0.003875 0.004382 3.978596 7.2E-05 0.000849

CHN 0.005907 0.083924 0.011526 0 0.001718 0.018854 0.03944 0.002981 3.816237 0

COL 0.016418 6.68E-05 0.000629 0 0.002941 0.000116 0.000974 0.000994 0 1.717779

DEU 1.157048 0.792839 3.086611 1.105725 1.677697 0.85047 6.201643 1.837788 0.880113 1.17669

GBR 4.5726 9.268073 5.360129 4.189713 3.376975 7.6935 7.037439 3.452236 0.620413 5.134561

ESP 0.952828 1.008229 1.369685 1.451168 0.419507 0.298546 0.987715 1.697505 0.756318 2.362503

FIN 0.224634 0.0001 0.23827 0 0.074688 0.352276 0.204749 0.280765 0.007661 0.160598

FRA 1.613961 2.611146 8.171588 2.801817 1.864251 2.187162 6.445833 1.013377 1.121208 1.898531

GRC 0.000261 0.001036 0.00461 0 0.000463 0.000116 0.024589 0 0 0.000212

HKG 0.082175 0.081953 0.126155 0 0.002479 0.002834 0 0.069347 1.679055 0

IDN 0.180767 0.001971 0.00021 0 3.3E-05 0.000202 0.000487 0.156974 0 0

IND 0.25026 1.533826 1.230118 1.435351 0.411212 1.881589 0.968238 0.000795 0.001397 0.957327

IRE 0.2037 0.003809 0.240365 0 0.269206 0.007605 0.068899 0.132931 0 0.140337

ISR 0.091904 0.009822 0.233869 0 0.099407 0.04089 0.442122 0.00159 0 0.000106

ITA 0.238011 0.766111 1.436744 1.766507 0.335467 0.513058 1.212672 0.335209 0 0.449864


DYADIC RELATIONSHIPSNumber of movies % per Country

country of

origin

ARG AUS BEL BGR BRA CAN CHE CHL CHN COL DEU

ARG 79.16667 2.604167 1.5625 0 10.41667 2.604167 6.770833 7.291667 0 5.208333 5.729167

AUS 2.575107 32.18884 3.862661 2.145923 4.72103 14.59227 7.725322 2.145923 1.287554 2.575107 12.44635

BEL 5.673759 11.34752 57.44681 0 15.60284 19.14894 21.98582 4.964539 0.70922 5.673759 22.69504

BGR 25 37.5 31.25 12.5 37.5 87.5 31.25 12.5 0 25 62.5

BRA 7.586207 3.448276 1.37931 0 82.06897 1.37931 3.448276 0 0 5.517241 4.827586

CAN 7.296137 10.72961 6.223176 2.145923 9.656652 55.79399 9.656652 5.150215 2.7897 6.223176 11.58798

CHE 6.504065 5.691057 8.943089 0 12.19512 8.943089 67.47967 0.813008 0 0 26.01626

CHL 18.75 2.083333 2.083333 2.083333 16.66667 4.166667 6.25 54.16667 2.083333 8.333333 14.58333

CHN 3.225806 8.602151 2.150538 0 7.526882 16.12903 11.82796 6.451613 29.03226 0 11.82796

COL 27.77778 2.777778 8.333333 0 13.88889 5.555556 5.555556 8.333333 0 55.55556 5.555556

DEU 6.046512 9.767442 9.302326 0.930233 13.25581 11.86047 18.60465 3.488372 0.930233 4.418605 63.72093

ENG 7.236842 17.89474 9.210526 2.631579 9.473684 21.57895 12.89474 6.578947 2.5 5.657895 18.02632

ESP 20.61404 4.385965 3.947368 1.315789 9.649123 4.824561 5.263158 6.578947 0.438596 12.2807 8.333333

FIN 7.692308 5.769231 11.53846 0 11.53846 13.46154 7.692308 3.846154 1.923077 7.692308 21.15385

FRA 8.576642 11.31387 20.80292 1.277372 16.60584 19.34307 23.54015 4.379562 1.094891 5.291971 18.79562

GRC 3.636364 10.90909 5.454545 0 12.72727 5.454545 3.636364 0 0 1.818182 9.090909

HKG 2.631579 10.52632 5.263158 0 7.894737 10.52632 0 5.263158 21.05263 0 18.42105



• Combine the different indicators of exhibition• Percentage of screenings• Percentage of movies• Number of movies produced by each country

METHOD



• Strong Dyadic Relationship Between• Canada and France; Hong Kong and China; Colombia

and Chile; Singapore and Taiwan• Canada and Australia; Germany and France; Finland and

USA; Italy and Belgium; Brazil and Argentina; USA and New Zealand

MAIN FINDINGS

• Possible Influences• Cultural similarities• Language• Geography/Borders


THE HOBBIT IN HFR

Technoscape+

Mediascape

Purpose: to examine changing technology (technoscape) of film media at a global scale (mediascape)


TECHNOLOGIES USED

• Trilogy using different technologies (3D and HFR)

• 2D• 3D• IMAX• IMAX 3D• HFR 3D


HOBBIT 1


HOBBIT 2


BASIC STATISTICS

• Total screenings for 48 countries• The Hobbit 1 (all)

1,840,093• The Hobbit 1 (HFR)

87,088

• The Hobbit 2 (all) 1,733,138

• The Hobbit 2 (HFR)153,252


GLOBAL SCREENINGS FOR HOBBIT 1 AND 2

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 530

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

Hobbit1Hobbit1HFRHobbit2Hobbit2HFR


GLOBAL SCREENINGS FOR HOBBIT 1 AND 2 (log scale)

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 531

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

Hobbit1Hobbit1HFRHobbit2Hobbit2HFR


SCREENINGS FOR HOBBIT 1 BY REGION

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

AustralasiaEuropeNorth AmericaSouth AmericaAsia


SCREENINGS FOR HOBBIT 1 BY REGION (Log scale)

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

AustralasiaEuropeNorth AmericaSouth AmericaAsia



Australian screenings of The Hobbit

January

February

March

April

May

JuneJuly

August

September

October

November

December

100000 100000

100000

100000

10000 10000

10000

10000

1000 1000

1000

1000

100 100

100

100

10 10

10

10

Europe

January

February

March

April

May

JuneJuly

August

September

October

November

December

1000000 1000000

1000000

1000000

100000 100000

100000

100000

10000 10000

10000

10000

1000 1000

1000

1000

100 100

100

100

10 10

10

10

North America (incl Mexico)

January

February

March

April

May

JuneJuly

August

September

October

November

December

1000000 1000000

1000000

1000000

100000 100000

100000

100000

10000 10000

10000

10000

1000 1000

1000

1000

100 100

100

100

10 10

10

10

South America

January

February

March

April

May

JuneJuly

August

September

October

November

December

100000 100000

100000

100000

10000 10000

10000

10000

1000 1000

1000

1000

100 100

100

100

10 10

10

10

Asia (inc Middle East)

January

February

March

April

May

JuneJuly

August

September

October

November

December

100000 100000

100000

100000

10000 10000

10000

10000

1000 1000

1000

1000

100 100

100

100

10 10

10

10

Total screenings of "The Hobbit"

January

February

March

April

May

JuneJuly

August

September

October

November

December

10000000 10000000

10000000

10000000

1000000 1000000

1000000

1000000

100000 100000

100000

100000

10000 10000

10000

10000

1000 1000

1000

1000

100 100

100

100

10 10

10

10



week0

week1

week2

week3

week4

week5

week6

week7

week8

week9

week1

0

week1

1

week1

2

week4

7

week4

8

week4

9

week5

0

week5

1

week5

20

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

AustralasiaAsiaEuropeNorth AmericaSouth America


SCREENINGS FOR HOBBIT 2 BY REGION (Log scale)

week0

week1

week2

week3

week4

week5

week6

week7

week8

week9

week1

0

week1

1

week1

2

week4

7

week4

8

week4

9

week5

0

week5

1

week5

21

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

AustralasiaAsiaEuropeNorth AmericaSouth America


HOBBIT 2 SCREENINGS (week 51 – 28 December 2013)


HOBBIT 2 SCREENINGS (week 8 – 1 March 2014)


HOBBIT 2 “LANDSCAPE”


HOBBIT 1 VENUES


HOBBIT 2 VENUES


PERCENT CHANGE IN VENUE NUMBERS FROM HOBBIT 1 AND HOBBIT 2 IN HFR

PHL C

ount

THA C

ount

NLD C

ount

KOR Cou

nt

FRA C

ount

SGP

Count

WAL C

ount

MEX C

ount

IDN C

ount

POR C

ount

UKR Cou

nt

VNM Cou

nt

NZL Cou

nt

AUT Cou

nt

SWE

Count

IRE

Count

CAN Cou

nt

ARG Cou

nt

DEU C

ount

CHE Cou

nt

BGR Cou

nt

BEL C

ount

ZAF Cou

nt

NOR Cou

nt-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200


PERCENT CHANGE IN VENUE NUMBERS FROM HOBBIT 1 AND HOBBIT 2 IN HFR


HOBBIT 1 HFR


HOBBIT 2 HFR


HOBBIT 1 HFR VENUE STANDARD ELLIPSES (68% and 95%)


HOBBIT 2 HFR VENUE STANDARD ELLIPSES (68% and 95%)


THE HOBBIT IN HFR

• Initial screening for Hobbit 1 > Hobbit 2

• Total screenings for Hobbit 2 likely to exceed that for Hobbit 1

• Hobbit 2 exhibits bi-modal distribution (in Asian region)

• Distinct geographic differences in screening of Hobbit 1 in HFR and Hobbit 2 in HFR

CONCLUSIONS


WHERE TO FROM HERE?

• Further analysis of The Hobbit (3D)

• Comparison with micro-scale survey of Adelaide’s “Wallis” cinemas

• Explore “ethnoscapes” through Hofstede’s theoretical framework (cultural dimensions)

• The change in dyadic relationships over time


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

• Thanks are extended to the Australian Research Council (ARC) for providing the funding (DP120101940) for this project

• Thanks to Stuart Palmer for Dyadic Analysis support

big cinema data: analysing global cinema showtimes

Data & Analytics