Page 4
Big bad budget balances 2011-17
Source: Treasury Budget May 8
Page 5
The bogeyman: net debt 2011-17
Source: Treasury Budget May 8
Page 6
Wayne’s fiscal dragnet
Source: Treasury, AMP Capital
Page 7
Health spending cut!
Source: Treasury Budget May 8
Page 8
Education not so smart,vocational flat
Source: Treasury Budget May 8
Page 9
Scary places – the states
Page 10
Those who grow old…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/specials/census-2011/
Source: ABS, ABC.net.au
Page 12
RESTRUCTURING HAPPENS
Page 17
Australia - real GDP growth
Source: Treasury Budget May 8
Page 21
Value of Australian commodity exports
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1990-91 1993-94 1996-97 1999-00 2002-03 2005-06 2008-09 2011-12
farm exports
mineral resource exports
Page 22
China: building Europe in 15 years
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
Page 24
Mining income
Source: Treasury May 2011 Source: Aust Treasury
Page 25
Resources investment pipeline
•Source: Treasury MYEFO Nov 29
Page 26
CAPEX KA-BOOM!
• Source: ABS May 31
Page 27
Canine Corporation
CEO CFO
Page 28
MINING CAPEX
• Source: ABS May 31
Page 29
Manufacturing capex
Source: ABS May 31
Page 30
Manufacturing CAPEX
• Source: ABS May 31
Page 31
Manufacturing exports exist!
Source: Treasury Budget, ABS
Page 32
Real retail turnover
Source ABS August 2
Page 33
Department stores departing…
Source ABS August 2
Page 34
RETAIL BACK TO NORMAL?
• Source: Morgan Stanley, ABS
Page 36
Short-term visitor arrivals March 02 401,800
March 03 398,200 March 04 424,200 March 05 456,900 March 06 456,800 March 07 473,000 March 08 467,900 March 09 468,700 March 10 481,300 March 11 483,800
March 12 504,800Source: ABS May 9 (trend)
Page 37
Source: ABS August 3
Page 38
Tourism changing, not dying
Source: Treasury Budget, ABS
Page 39
PEOPLE – our future
•Source ABS Sept
2008 Net migration 315,700 Population growth 2.2% (467,300) 2011 Net migration 184,00 Population growth 1.4% (302,600) (NSW 1.0% Qld 1.5% NT 0.8% WA 2.9%)Source: ABS June 20
Page 41
The numbers game
Now 2050 Japan 127 million 100 million
China 1.34 billion 1.42 billion
India 1.21 billion 1.7 billion
Page 44
The nation not doing it tough
Page 46
Gross national savings
Source: Treasury Budget May 8
Page 47
Dirty great big massive huge data
Page 48
Non-resources non-booming but non-bad
Source: Treasury Budget May 8