bias correction of satellite data in grapes-var · 2006-10-27 · bias correction of satellite data...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Wei Han Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CMA
ITSC15, 2006-10, Italy
Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR
![Page 2: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Status of GRAPES-3DVARMain components of GRAPES
Usage of satellite data in GRAPES-Var
Improvement of satellite data assimilationBias Correction
Error Tuning
Impact on Analysis and ForecastGlobal Model
Typhoon Forecast
Discussions and Ongoing Work
Outline
Developed DifferentObservation Operators
Monitoring the InnovationsAnd Tuning Parameters
Impact
![Page 3: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Main components of Chinese new generation NWP system
Global/ Regional Assimilation and Prediction
System
GRAPES-Var
GAPRES-Global
GRAPES-Meso
![Page 4: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Data usage of GRAPES-Var
AIREP
SYNOP
SHIPS
TEMP
Conventional data
Remote sensing data
ATOVS
AMV
Weather Radars
Assimilated directly
![Page 5: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
ATOVS�From Regional to GlobalSince Oct. 2005
Global l1b data from NOAA/NESDISGlobal l1b data from NOAA/NESDIS
Local received HRPT data from NSMCLocal received HRPT data from NSMC PREPROC ATOVS Level 1C data
ATOVS Level 1D data
NOAA16/17 AMSUB CH42005080118(-3h~3h)�From NESDIS
NOAA16/17 AMSUB CH42005080118(-3h~3h)�Local received
Typhoons Origin
![Page 6: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Satellite Data Assimilated In GRAPES in Nov. 2005
FY2C AMVs
GTS AMVs
NOAA16/17
AMSUB
2xAMSU-B (NOAA-16/17) Winds from 5 GEOS (Met-5/7 GOES-9/10/12)
NOAA15/16
AMSUA
2xAMSU-A (NOAA-15/16) Winds from FY2C
![Page 7: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Preprocessing of Satellite Data in GRAPES-Var
Quality control ( by NSMC )Thinning
Error Correlation (Not represented in the obs. covariance )
To reduce data volume
Observational error AssignmentStatistics of the Innovations
Tuning of the Error Setting
Bias correctionGlobal Model
Regional Model
![Page 8: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Bias Correction Scheme in Practice: Harris and Kelly(2001)’s scheme
Scan Bias �s=<dj(θ)-dj(θ=0)>Air Mass Bias : b=H(xb)-y-s
Least Square
p (predictors)�b : Air Mass Bias
Solution
cApb +=
1TT )(ppbpA −= Apbc −=
Predictors:Scan Bias
Latitude Band Average
Air Mass BiasThickness between 1000-300hPaThickness between 200-50hPaSurface temperaturesIntegrated water vapor
![Page 9: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
AMSUA Bias : H(xb)-Yo
Ch5-Ch10:Cold Bias of Obs.
Ch1-Ch4 and Ch11-Ch15:Warm Bias of Obs.
![Page 10: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Estimation of std. of AMSUA Error
![Page 11: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
AMSUB Bias of H(xb)-Yo
NOAA16 NOAA17
Bias
Std.
![Page 12: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Tuning of Obs. Error
Step1: Tuning of Obs. Error based on Innovation Statistics
Step2: Tuning of Different Observations
, , , , ,N
o o o osound synop amsu typeε ε ε εK K
( ) ( , )2
o osound amsu
pJ J Jα α= ⇒ =ε ε
![Page 13: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Noaa16 AMSUA
5.8323 5.4066 2.6716 0.9650 0.3840 0.2217 0.2326 0.4030 0.3273 0.3387 0.6327 1.3265 2.2177 3.3642 4.8095
![Page 14: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
AMSUB
NOAA17NOAA16
6.5990 4.6569 3.5632 3.0555 2.8246
6.7829 4.6709 3.6053 3.0412 2.7886
![Page 15: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Impact of Bias Correction
On Analysis Increments
On Forecast
Global ModelVerification against its own analysis(15 days)
ACC: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient
Typhoon Track Forecast
Regional Model
![Page 16: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Ananlysis Increments
dxa: T, q
Average of 2005080112—2005081512
15 days
![Page 17: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
500hpadxa: T, q
Average of 2005080112—200508151215 days
![Page 18: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
500mb ACC(2005080112-2005081012,144h Forecast)
0 1 2 3 4 5 60.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Forecast Day
Ano
mal
y C
orr.
90S-90N,0-360,500hPa
BCCtrlNoBC
0 1 2 3 4 5 60.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Forecast Day
Ano
mal
y C
orr.
20N-90N,0-360,500hPa
BCCtrlNoBC
1 2 3 4 5 6
ctrl 0.9744 0.9232 0.8498 0.7708 0.6869 0.5829
NoBC 0.9691 0.9195 0.8487 0.7605 0.6624 0.5679
BC 0.9684 0.9217 0.8525 0.7722 0.6955 0.5987
1 2 3 4 5 6
ctrl 0.9521 0.8413 0.6972 0.5557 0.4220 0.3152
NoBC 0.9441 0.8345 0.6953 0.5575 0.4265 0.3159
BC 0.9467 0.8362 0.6903 0.5621 0.4545 0.3668
![Page 19: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Ananlysis Increments
dxa: T, q
Average of 2005080112—2005081512
15 days
![Page 20: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
200hpa Analysis Increments
![Page 21: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Bias Correction For Assimilation of ATOVS in GRAPES: Impact on Typhoon Forecast
Global Model (One Case: MATSA)
Regional Model (One Case: RANANIM)
![Page 22: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
GRAPES Global Model:2005080112(UTC),120h Forecast
Different Initial Value onlyN: NCEP Analysis
G: GTS
S: GTS+AMSU+BC
O: Obs.
![Page 23: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Animation of 700hpa humidity 144h Forecast GRAPES Global Model
with Assimlation of AMSU+BC
![Page 24: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
NOAA16:AMSUA-ch5,200408126
warm core
![Page 25: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Innovation of AMSUA(NOAA16)Ch5-Ch8
Ch5,6,7,8
Ch5 Ch6
Ch7 Ch8
![Page 26: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
After Q.C.Without B.C
Ch5,6,7,8
Ch5 Ch6
Ch7 Ch8
![Page 27: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
After Q.C.With B.C
Ch5,6,7,8
Ch5 Ch6
Ch7 Ch8
![Page 28: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
After Q.C.Distribution of innovation of effective obs.
Dashed line: without B.C
Solid Line : with B.C.
![Page 29: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Residual
-1 0 10
20
40
60
80
-1 0 10
20
40
60
80
100
-1 0 10
20
40
60
80
100
-1 0 10
20
40
60
80
100
-1 0 10
50
100
150
-1 0 10
50
100
150
200
H(xa)-Yo
Ch5 Ch6 Ch7
Ch8 Ch9 Ch10
![Page 30: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
RANANIM:0414
No AMSUAMSU+BC
AMSU
2004081206,UTC
![Page 31: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
●
Precip. Forecast Durinig Rananim Landfall,24h
14Z13AUG2004 ForecastObs.
Arrows: 10m Wind Vectors Shaded�6-hour Accumulated Rainfall
![Page 32: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
●
20Z13AUG2004 ForecastObs.
Arrows: 10m Wind Vectors Shaded�6-hour Accumulated Rainfall
Precip. Forecast Durinig Rananim Landfall, 30h
![Page 33: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Discussion
GRAPES-3DVAR is Moving to a New StageOperational implementation
Refinement
Bias Correction and Obs. Error TuningVERY Important
Preliminary results is promising
Need More Work
Positive Impact of Satellite Data AssimilationGlobal Medium Forecast
Typhoon Forecasts
Other Verifications is Ongoing(Precip.,etc.)
Developed DifferentObservation Operators
Monitoring the InnovationsAnd Tuning Parameters
![Page 34: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Ongoing Work
Thinning( Resolution of Obs., Analysis and Model)Global ModelRegional and Mesoscale ModelConstant Distance Thinning
Bias CorrectionPredictorsParameter Estimation MethodBias ModelTreatment of Coast (No Options in RTTOV)
Observation Error Setting and Online TuningInteraction with Q.C.Diagnosis of E(Jmin)=p/2 (Talagrand,1999; Chapnik,2006)
![Page 35: Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR · 2006-10-27 · Bias Correction of Satellite Data in GRAPES-VAR. ÂStatus of GRAPES-3DVAR ªMain components of GRAPES ... After Q.C](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052500/5f1033807e708231d447f116/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Thank you for AttentionThank you for Attention