bgr energy systems
TRANSCRIPT
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BGR ENERGY SYSTEMS
BGR was incorporated as a joint venture between GEA
Energietechnik GmbH, Germany and the Promoter, Mr.
B.G. Raghupathy, to manufacture and sell On‐line
Condenser Tube Cleaning Systems, Debris Filters and
Rubber Cleaning Balls used in Thermal and Nuclear
Power Plants.
The company executes Turnkey Contracts to supply the
Balance of Plant ("BOP") Equipment, Services and Civil
works for Power Generation projects, in which it
supply, from a single source, the Balance of the plant,
i.e. items other than the Boiler, Turbine and Generator.
Having successfully executed BOP contracts, it has
begun to focus on Engineering, Procurement and
Construction ("EPC") contracts, in which it Design,
Engineer and Supply all of the equipment required for
a Power Plant including the Boiler, Turbine and
Generator and Civil works. The Company is currently
executing BOP and EPC contracts tailored to customer
demands. It also has an infrastructure business
intended to provide construction services and
technology oriented projects to the infrastructure
sector.
BGR is one of the strongest plays in the construction
space with concentrated focus on the power segment.
It with its strong expertise & competent in house
manufacturing capabilities has emerged as one of the
leading player in the BOP space. Over the last 24 years,
BGR has transformed itself from being a multi product
manufacturer for the power plants to a turnkey service
provider undertaking entire BOP contracts
independently from the domestic State Electricity
Boards (SEBs). The company has completed more than
130 contracts in India and abroad.
CMP (02/02/2010) 474.90
Stock Details
BSE Code: 532930
NSE Code: BGRENERGY
Bloomberg Code: BGRL.IN
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 3733
Shares O/S 72 mn
52 Week H/L 590/107
Face Value Rs 10
Relative Performance 1m 3m 1Yr
NTPC (2)% 10% 228%
Nifty 2% 2% 71%
Shareholding Pattern as of 31/12/2009 Promoters 81.3%
Institutions 8.5 %
Public & Others 10.2 %
Rabin Bihani (09951633560)
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Business Profile
BGR Energy carries on the business in two segments, the
Supply of systems and Equipment and Turnkey Engineering
project contracting.
In the Turnkey Engineering project contracting business, the
company engineer, manufacture, procure, construct and
commission projects in the Power and Oil & Gas sector,
wherein it take Turnkey responsibility to supply of a range of
equipment and services, including the civil works required for
a project and other work as may be required under the
contract for such project.
DIVISIONS Power Projects Business: The company provides turnkey
EPC and BOP services for coal‐based Thermal Power Plants
and Gas‐based Combined Cycle Power Plants typically over
100 megawatts (MW). The first contract was completed in the
year 2002. After entering into BOP components (all
components other than boiler, turbines and generators – list
mentioned below) and gaining experience, the company has
entered into EPC contracts, where it design and supplies all
equipment required for a power plant including boilersturbines and generators and civil works.
1. Design & Engineering of Civil, Electrical and
Mechanical Systems
10. Effluent Plant Treatment
2. Civil Works including 11. Demineralisation Plant
a. Chimney 12. Ash Handling System
b. Natural and Induced Draft Cooling Tower 13. Coal Handling Systems
3. Substation and Switchyard. 14. Gas Conditioning a& Metering Skid
4. Plant Piping System 15. Fabrication of Column and
Structures
5. Air Fin Cooler 16. Welded Finned Tubes
6. Air Cooled Condenser 17. Heat Recovery Systems
7. Deaerator 18. On‐line Condenser Tube Cleaning
Systems
8. Desalination Plant including RO System 19. Debris Filter
9. Condense Polishing Plant 20. Rubber Cleaning Balls for
Condenser
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The company manufactures around ~40% in house of the
products included in the BOP plant and rest is sourced from
the various domestic and international suppliers. It is now
implementing two EPC contracts and four BOP projects at present. The company usually bids for the projects having
secured financial closure. The power projects division’s sales
increased to ~INR 1653 cr in FY09 from ~INR 114 cr in FY05
which accounted for 86% of BGR’s total revenue in FY09.
Source: Company Captive Power Projects: It provides turnkey EPC and BOP
services for power plants of less than 100 MW. It had been
started in 2006.The division recorded revenue of ~INR 38.4 cr
in FY09.
Oil and Gas Equipment: The division manufacturing gas
conditioning and metering skids, storage tanks, pipeline pig
launching and receiving systems, gas processing complexes,and gas compressor packages related to the oil and gas
industry got started in 2001. The division recorded revenue of
~INR 57.6 cr in FY09.
Air Fin Coolers: This division manufacturing air fin coolers,
which cool process fluids and gases used in the refining,
0
200
400
600
800
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FY05 FY07 (18 mths) FY08 FY09
Revenues
Revenues
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Source:
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VENUE BR
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615 BOPs would be required of which orders for 526 has
already been placed while the rest has to be placed for. The
company has been one of the few integrated provider for the
power plants which has the presence in all the segments of
BOP package.
BOP status as on July '09 Name of BOP BOPs required Order Placed Balance Order Coal Handling Plant (CHP) 68 57 11
Ash Handling Plany (AHP) 69 59 10
Demineralised (DM) water Plant' 69 57 12
Cooling Tower 145 126 19
Chimney 117 104 13
Fuel Oil (FO) Systems 71 59 12
PT Plant 76 64 12
TOTAL 615 526 89
Source: CEA, Mangal Keshav Securities Ltd.
Rising Star
From the multi product manufacturer to the turnkey service
provider undertaking entire BOP contracts independently from
the domestic State Electricity Boards, BGR energy had
transformed itself vigorously over the last 24 years. The
company has completed more than 130 contracts in India and
abroad. It has executed turnkey BOP works for various power
projects in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan.
Projects Completed Project Contract Value
(Rs mn) Scope of Contract Commissioning
Date 23 MW CCP Chittorgarh, Rajasthan 444 BOP Feb‐03
95 MW CCPP (Phase I) at Valuthur,
Tamil Nadu
594 BOP Mar‐03
92.2 MW CCPP (Phase II) at Valuthur,
Tamil Nadu
3553 EPC May‐08
120 MW CCPP at Karuppur, Tamil
Nadu
2697 EPC Jul‐05
330 MW CCPP at Dholapur,
Rajasthan
2095 BOP Dec‐07
500 MW TPS at Vijaywada, Andhra
Pradesh
5788 BOP Apr‐09
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The company has increased its focus on undertaking the EPC
contracts, which forms the higher end of the value chain of the
power projects. For this purpose it has associated with
DongFang Electric to source the BTG equipments. DongFang
Electric would be supplying the BTG package for the two large
EPC contracts at Mettur, Tamil Nadu and Kalisind, Rajasthan.
EPC Projects under execution Project Capacity
(MW) Fuel Order Value(Rs in
cr) Contractual Completion Schedule
RRVUNL ‐ Kalisindh TPS,
Rajasthan
2 x 600 Coal 4900 42 Months
TNEB ‐ Mettur TPS, Tamil
Nadu
1x600 Coal 3100 39 Months
Source: Company BGR Energy also has initiated plans of the backward
integration to strengthen its position in the EPC space. It has
signed a 20 year licensee agreement with Foster Wheelers,
USA to manufacture and sell sub‐ and super‐critical boilers. It
has floated a special purpose vehicle, BGR Boilers Private Ltd
and plans to invest Rs5bn for the boiler plant. The plant would
have a capacity of 3000MW and the boilers will be of capacities
ranging from 300MW to 1000MW. The plant is expected tocome up in Tamil Nadu in the next 2‐3years. Currently the
company is awaiting the approvals from the government.
In House Design and Manufacturing
BGR manufacturers ~18‐20 components of the BOP package
out of more than 40 items like coal handling plant, cooling
towers, civil works, transformers, switchgears, etc as
compared to that of its peers like that of the BHEL, Alstom
Projects, L&T, Reliance Infrastructure, Thermax and TataProjects. This gives it the advantage in timely execution of the
projects with lesser involvement in vendor management and it
also offers cost efficiencies. To facilitate undertaking this kind
of projects, the company is increasing its employee strength
and had added 500 employees in FY09 and has a planning to
add similar number in FY10.
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Divisio
Air Fan
Oil and
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Source:
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On the back of the huge order book, the company would post a
good revenue growth in the coming years. The bulk of the
revenues would be contributed by the power segment. The
four large orders (2 EPC and 2 BOP) the company bagged in
the last 18months would start to generate revenues from
Q2FY10E. The deliveries of equipments for both the Rajasthan
and Tamil Nadu order have started and thus the company
would start to recognize revenues on these two large projects.
Thus the revenues would start to gain momentum in H2FY10E.
Also, the robust order inflows in FY10 would help sustain the
high growth in revenues in FY11E. The two largest order flow
in FY10 being
a) Chandrapur Mega Project (2 x 500 MW) for Rs 16.3 bn and
b) Marwa Thermal Project (2 x 500 MW) for Rs 16.3 bn.
Thus I estimate the revenue growth to be around ~42% in
FY11 and ~28% in FY12 with a CAGR of ~24% from FY10 to
FY15.
Strong Management Team
The company has a strong and experienced management team.
Such a strong and experienced management team alleviates
the execution risk of such large power projects. The execution
risk is especially higher when it is working with the
government agencies like SEBs. Also there has been a history
of delay happening in some of the past projects.
Recently Mr. T. Sankarlingam (ex CMD of NTPC Ltd) has joined
the company as its Managing Director. There has been other
senior appointments in the senior management of the
company which provides comfort on the execution cycle of the
company. Also, Mr. V. Anantha Krishnan (former executive
director of BHEL) has joined BGR Boilers as Director
Operations. This reflects well on the company’s commitment tobecome an integrated EPC player in the power space with in‐
house manufacturing facilities.
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Financial Outlook
Revenue I expect that the net sales of the company to show a CAGR of
approximately 25% from FY10 to FY15. The net sales isestimated to be around Rs 26.5 bn and to be around Rs 80.5 bn
in FY15.
EBITDA and EBITDA Margin The EBITDA is expected to grow from ~ Rs 386 cr to Rs 1175
cr at a CAGR of 25% from FY010 to FY15.
15.119.3
26.5
39.0
49.8
60.1
70.4
80.5
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.050.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E
Sales (Rs bn)
Sales (Rs bn)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
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The EBITDA margin would, I believe, consolidate around the
levels of 15%.
Risk and Concerns
Execution Risk BGR had execution delays in the past. The 500MW thermal
power plant at Vijayawada was scheduled to be completed in
July 2008 but the project got completed in April 2009.
Similarly, the 500MW Kakatiya project is under execution
which was schedule for completion by February 2009. Hence,
executing the two sizeable EPC contracts without any delay
would be a test for BGR, as it would involves handling large
number of subcontractors. Also, any delay in such large
contracts would procrastinate earnings.
Dependence on Chinese Manufacturers – Quality concerns BGR has placed orders of BTG with Dongfang for both of its
EPC contracts. Dongfang Electric Corporation is one of the
major manufacturers of BTG in China with an annual capacity
of around 30,000 MW per year. There has been concerns
regarding these products not suited for Indian coal. Also, a
turbine supplied by Dongfang for the West Bengal Power
Development Corp.’s 300MW Sagardighi project had failed in
mid 2008. Occurrence of any such incidents, supply of inferiorquality of equipment, or any delay from Dongfang would
impact BGR’s operations.
Competition For contracts that has been tendered as EPC, BHEL is a major
competitor. However, recently BHEL has increased its focus on
BTG orders than executing entire EPC contracts. In case of
contracts tendered as BTG and BOP orders separately, many
players compete for BOP orders while BTG orders are usually
awarded to BHEL.
Raw Material prices Most of the contracts received by BGR are fixed price contracts,
any unexpected rise in prices of raw material or power
equipment would adversely affect margins going forward.
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Valuation
I have made the valuation of the company on the basis of the
DCF model. I have forecasted the cash flows till FY15 and then
applied the terminal growth rate of 5% which is below the GDP
growth rate considering the half yearly GDP growth rate of the
country. The forecasting has been done after taking into
account the slippages on the capacity addition. The key to such
a forecasting is that the company executes the project without
further delay. The valuation further contains the assumption
that on an average the assumed capital expenditure is spent by
the company.
Based on the valuation, I arrive at the fair value of the
company’s stock at Rs 566. Based on the prevailing market
price, the stock is undervalued and provides a good potential
upside.
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PROJECTED INCOME STATEMENT FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E
IncomeSales Turnover 2645.28 3902.22 4984.77 6006.01 7037.95 8050.89
Excise Duty 13.23 19.51 24.92 30.03 35.19 40.25
Net Sales 2632.05 3882.71 4959.85 5975.98 7002.76 8010.63
Other Income 39.48 58.24 74.40 89.64 105.04 120.16
Total Income 2671.53 3940.95 5034.25 6065.62 7107.80 8130.79
Expenditure
Raw Materials 1842.44 2717.90 3471.89 4183.19 4901.93 5607.44
Power and Fuel Cost 2.63 3.88 4.96 5.98 7.00 8.01
Employee Cost 105.28 155.31 198.39 239.04 280.11 320.43
Other Manufacturing Expenses 210.56 310.62 396.79 478.08 560.22 640.85
Selling and Administration Expenses 86.59 127.74 163.18 196.61 230.39 263.55
Miscellaneous Expenses 37.90 55.91 71.42 86.05 100.84 115.35
PreOperative Expenses Capitalised 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Expenses 2285.41 3371.36 4306.64 5188.94 6080.50 6955.63
EBITDA 386.12 569.59 727.61 876.68 1027.30 1175.16
Less: Depreciation 10.93 14.80 20.57 27.38 34.91 42.99
EBIT 375.20 554.79 707.04 849.29 992.39 1132.17
Less: Interest 99.12 107.09 116.85 128.14 140.86 155.05
EBT 276.08 447.71 590.20 721.16 851.53 977.13
Less: Tax 93.87 152.22 200.67 245.19 289.52 332.22
EAT 182.21 295.49 389.53 475.96 562.01 644.90
Appropriation
Proposed Dividend 32.80 44.32 58.43 71.39 84.30 96.74
Corporate Dividend Tax 5.25 7.09 9.35 11.42 13.49 15.48
Balance Carried forward to BalanceSheet 144.17 244.07 321.75 393.15 464.22 532.69
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PROJECTED BALANCE SHEET FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E
Sources of Funds
Share Capital 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0Reserves 489.2 633.3 877.4 1199.1 1592.3 2056.5 2589.2
Total Shareholder's Funds 561.2 705.3 949.4 1271.1 1664.3 2128.5 2661.2
Secured Loan 636.0 698.1 763.3 843.2 935.6 1039.7 1155.7
Unsecured Loan 71.8 77.6 84.8 93.7 104.0 115.5 128.4
Total Debt 707.8 775.7 848.1 936.9 1039.5 1155.2 1284.1
TOTAL 1269.0 1481.0 1797.5 2208.0 2703.8 3283.7 3945.3
Application of Funds
Gross Block 113.2 181.1 253.5 342.2 444.9 560.6 689.5
Less: Accum. Depreciation 22.1 33.0 47.8 68.4 95.8 130.7 173.7
Net Block 91.1 148.0 205.7 273.8 349.1 429.9 515.8
Capital Work in Progress 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4
Investments 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
Inventories 12.5 19.7 29.1 37.2 44.8 52.5 60.1
Sundry Debtors 1278.0 1579.2 1863.7 2231.9 2689.2 3151.2 3604.8
Cash and Bank Balance 15.9 244.8 573.5 950.4 1209.4 1506.5 1781.6
Total Current Assets 1306.4 1843.8 2466.3 3219.6 3943.4 4710.2 5446.4
Loans and Advances 671.2 805.4 966.5 1159.7 1391.7 1670.0 2004.0
Fixed Deposits 595.0 595.0 595.0 595.0 595.0 595.0 595.0
Total CA, Loans & Advances 2572.5 3244.2 4027.8 4974.3 5930.1 6975.3 8045.4
Deffered Credit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Current Liabilities 1337.1 1842.4 2329.6 2901.5 3406.3 3921.5 4385.8
Provisions 67.7 79.0 116.5 148.8 179.3 210.1 240.3
Total CL & Provisions 1404.8 1921.4 2446.1 3050.3 3585.6 4131.6 4626.1
Net Current Assets 1167.7 1322.8 1581.7 1924.0 2344.5 2843.6 3419.3
Miscellaneous Expenses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Assets 1269.0 1481.0 1797.5 2208.0 2703.8 3283.7 3945.3
Ratios (x)Debt Equity 1.26 1.10 0.89 0.74 0.62 0.54 0.48
Average ROE % 32.47% 41.89% 41.03% 37.44% 33.77% 30.30%
Book Value Per Share 97.96 131.86 176.55 231.15 295.63 369.61
EV/EBITDA 1.47 0.99 0.78 0.65 0.55 0.48
P/BV 5.78 4.30 3.21 2.45 1.92 1.53
P/E 22.38 13.80 10.47 8.57 7.26 6.32
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PROJECTED CASH FLOW STATEMENT FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E
Profit before Interest and Tax 375.20 554.79 707.04 849.29 992.39
1132.17Add: Depreciation 10.93 14.80 20.57 27.38 34.91 42.99
Change in Working Capital 73.91 69.78 34.60 ‐161.55 ‐202.05 ‐300.60
Total Tax Paid ‐93.87 ‐152.22 ‐200.67 ‐245.19 ‐289.52 ‐332.22
Cash Flow from Operating Activities 366.16 487.16 561.54 469.93 535.73 542.34
Capital Expenditure 67.90 72.43 88.73 102.67 115.67 128.93
Change in Investments
Other Items
Cash Flow from Investing Activities -67.90 -72.43 -88.73 -102.67 -115.67 -128.93
Net Debts Raised/Repaid 67.90 72.43 88.73 102.67 115.67 128.93
Dividend Payment (including tax) 38.05 51.41 67.78 82.82 97.79 112.21
Interest Paid 99.12 107.09 116.85 128.14 140.86 155.05
Cash Flows from Financing Activities -69.26 -86.07 -95.90 -108.29 -122.98 -138.33
Net Cash Flows 229.00 328.66 376.92 258.98 297.08 275.08
Opening Cash Balance 15.85 244.85 573.51 950.42 1209.40 1506.48
Closing Cash Balance 244.85 573.51 950.42 1209.40 1506.48 1781.56
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DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW VALUATION FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E
EBIT 375.20 554.79 707.04 849.29 992.39 1132.17
Tax 127.57 188.63 240.40 288.76 337.41 384.94
NOPAT 247.63 366.16 466.65 560.53 654.98 747.23
Depreciation and Ammortisation 10.93 14.80 20.57 27.38 34.91 42.99
Working Capital Changes 73.91 69.78 34.60 -161.55 -202.05 -300.60
Operational Cash Flow 332.46 450.75 521.81 426.37 487.84 489.62
Less: Capital Expenditure 67.90 72.43 88.73 102.67 115.67 128.93
Free Cash Flow to Company 264.56 378.32 433.09 323.70 372.17 360.69
Discounted Value of FCF 264.56 338.18 346.06 231.21 237.62 205.86
Terminal Value 5512.791
Discounted Terminal Value 3146.32
Sum of Present Value of FCFs 1623.48
EV 4769.81
Net Debt 707.8
Add: Cash 15.85
Total Equity Value 4077.86
Value Per Share 566.37
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