bfap baseline - agbiz › uploads › agbiznews18 › 180301_ferdi...• sa catching up with global...
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BFAP Baseline
Managing Agriculture’s Investments in
an Uncertain Environment
Prof Ferdi Meyer
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2
Context
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Real agricultural prices declining
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Per-capita use of grains and oilseeds
Source: Author calculations based on June 2016 USDA PSD Online data for 9 grains and 5 oilseeds and U.S. Census Bureau population estimates
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5Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
SA Household Disposable Income per Capita
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% C
han
ge Y
ear-
on
-Year Real Rate of Change
Context
Source: SARB, 2017
Fig. 16, Page 21
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6
SA economy - 2016Context
Gross domestic produt by industry 2016 (@ current prices) Agriculture, forestry,
hunting and fishing
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Wholesale and retailtrade, catering andaccomodationOther
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7
Manufacturing sales - 2016Context
Food and beverages
24%
Petroleum, chemical
products, rubber and plastic products
21%
Basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery
20%
Motor vehicles, parts and
accessories and other transport
equipment13%
Wood and wood products, paper, publishing and
printing8%
Other14%
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Agricultural growth
8 |
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9
Agriculture’s compositionContext
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10Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
The NDP is a good plan – Execution?
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11
Agriculture’s PerformanceContext
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12
Agriculture’s Performance - TradeContext
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13Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
SA Share of World Exports (Value)Context
2.0%
8.7%
5.6%
5.7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Wine Citrus Grapes Apples and Pears
Fig. 4, Page 7
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Households in agriculture: 2011-2015
14 |
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15Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Grains & Oilseeds
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16Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Grains & Oilseeds: Area Implication
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
Tho
usa
nd
hec
tare
s WM
YM
WS
WW
Sunflower
Soybeans
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17Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Domestic Price Trends: Catching up with Low Global Cycle
• Decreasing real commodity prices
• Firm decline from 2016 to 2017 providing relief for consumers
• White maize 62% lower oppose to 2016 levels. Recovery anticipated in 2018
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
R/t
on
Nominal
White Maize Yellow Maize Soybeans
Sunflower Wheat Canola
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
R/t
on
Real (2010)
White Maize Yellow Maize Soybeans
Sunflower Wheat Canola
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18Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Competitiveness : Western FS & Iowa, USA
$84 $80
$96
$106
$95
$104
$66
$102
$123
$62 $61 $61
$48
$59
$73 $66
$69
$53 $52 $59
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
US
$ p
er
ton
Maiz
e P
rod
uced
WFS per ton Establishment cost Iowa per ton Establishment cost
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19Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Provincial Recovery After Drought
-49%
63%
21%
-39%-45%
-35%-29%
18%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Bill
ion R
and
Gross Revenue 2016 Gross Revenue 2017 Percentage change: 2016-2017
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20Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
200
6
200
8
201
0
201
2
201
4
201
6
201
8
20
20
202
2
202
4
202
6
Th
ou
san
d t
on
s
R/t
on
Production
Domestic use
Net imports
Import parity -Randfontein
SAFEX
Export parity -deep sea
Soybean Production & Domestic Use
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21Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Soybean UtilisationGrains, Oilseeds and Potatoes
Benchmark crush capacity (2.06 Million
tons)
(80% Utilisation of dedicated soya and
dual capacity)
Benchmark crush capacity (1.40 Million
tons), (80% Utilisation of dedicated soya
capacity)
Fig. 52, Page 56
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Uti
lis
ati
on
ra
te
Th
ou
sa
nd
to
ns
Soybean crush Soybean full fat
Soya crush capacity (80% utilisation) Soya and dual crush capacity (80% utilisation)
Implied utilisation rate (Soya capacity) Implied utilisation rate (Soya and dual capacity)
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22Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Livestock
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23Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Meat Consumption: 2026 vs. CurrentLivestock and Dairy
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
20
14
-16
2026
20
14
-16
2026
20
14
-16
2026
20
14
-16
2026
20
14
-16
2026
Beef Chicken Sheep meat Pork Eggs
Th
ou
sa
nd
to
ns
Net Imports
Domestic Production
Net import share inconsumption (RightAxis)
Net export share ofconsumption (RightAxis)
23%
19%
5%
30% 22%
• Slowdown in growth from past decade
• Chicken dominates consumption growth
-> affordability
• Affordability vs. income level of consumer
base
• Trade share projections differ by meat type
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24Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Relief for Livestock ProducersLivestock and Dairy
• SA catching up with global cycles
• Declining feed – meat price ratios supported
by time required for supply response
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
Ra
tio
Chicken to maizeratio domestic
Chicken to maizeratio international
Beef to maize ratiodomestic
Beef to maize ratiointernational
• Relative competitiveness of beef
and poultry production - extent of
price increases across sectors
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25Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Net Trade in Beef Products – Shift in MarketsLivestock and Dairy
• Predominantly high value cuts
destined for Middle East
• Vet protocols are paramount – need
to remain free of FMD
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Th
ou
sa
nd
s t
on
s Fresh or chilled edibleoffal: bovine
Frozen, boneless meat
Frozen, bone in cuts
Frozen, Carcass & HalfCarcass
Fresh or chilled, boneless
Fresh or Chilled, bone incuts
Fresh / Chilled, Carcass &Half Carcass
Source: ITC Trademap
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26Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Cost Competitiveness of SA Poultry ProducersLivestock and Dairy
• More expensive to
produce a whole bird in
EU than in SA
• SA remains higher cost
producer than USA,
Brazil, Argentina,
Ukraine
• Feed costs primary
driver of higher
production costs –
Value chain approach
required
• Differences in consumer
demand & marketing
strategies across
countries
Source: BFAP & WUR, 2017
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% d
evia
tio
n t
o S
ou
th A
fric
a
Primary production & slaughter cost 2015
Primary production & slaughter cost 2013
Fig. 77, Page 76
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27Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Horticulture
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28Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Agricultural Census: Flyover data Breede Valley Pilot
CropCurrent Pilot
(2017) – Ha
Previous Census
(2013/14) – Ha% change
Proteas 5 7 -38%
Figs 39 18 +115%
Lemons 57 29 +98%
Naartjies 324 34 +860%
Oranges 164 201 -18%
Wine Grapes 15 849 17 189 -8%
Source: WC DoA, SIQ (2017)
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29Bureau of Food and Agricultural PolicySource: SAMAC (2016) and Trademap (ITC) 2017
Macadamia Production and ExportsHorticulture and Wine
+10% p.a.
Kernel: USA (49%),
NL (9%)
In Shell: China (64%),
Vietnam (31%)
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30Bureau of Food and Agricultural PolicySource: HORTGRO (2016) and Trademap (ITC) 2017
Berry Exports and ProductionHorticulture and Wine
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31Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Western Cape drought
Industry
Total
Productio
n 2016/17
Estimated
Total
Production
2017/18
Drop in
Productio
n (%)
GVA Shock
2016/17 vs
2017/18
(R million)
Employme
nt losses
Wine Grapes 1 599 728 1 279 782 -20.0 -591.21 -2 809
Table Grapes 186 772 153 000 -18.1 -787.36 -4 019
Pome Fruit 1 376 279 1 256 773 -8.7 -898.26 -9 635
Stone Fruit 319 424 293 288 -8.2 -458.26 -2 070
Citrus 311 955 287 887 -7.7 -259.24 -1 280
Alternative Fruit* 7 693 7 037 -8.5 -36.35 -220
Major
Vegetables**1 104 580 881 280 -20.2 -78.73 -2 716
Grains*** 1 558 200 986 928 -36.7 -2 812.97 -7 482
Total 6 464 630 5 145 975 -20.4 -5 922.37 -30 230
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32Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
African markets
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Baseline GrowthGrowth in real GDP: Outlook vs. Past Decade
Source: IMF, 2017
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%Per Capita
Past Decade Outlook
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%Total
Past Decade Outlook
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34
SSA rapid population growthTransformation in Regional Agri-food System
Source: World Bank Development Group, 2015
Fig. 123, Page 123
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35Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
200
1
200
2
20
03
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
20
08
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
US
D B
illi
on
s
SSA Imports from non-SSA
SSA's imports from SSA
SSA Total Food Imports from 7 to 40 billion USD (2001-2015)(intra SSA trade from 1 to 10 billion USD)
Source: ITC, 2017
Fig. 126, Page 125
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36Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Intra-SSA Top 10 Agri ImportsTransformation in Regional Agri-food System
Product label2015
Average annual
growth rate:
2001 - 2015
(USD billions) (% of Total) (%)
Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers 1.032788 12.8% 20.1%
Cereals 0.922442 11.4% 10.5%
Animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage
products; prepared edible fats; animal 0.794882 9.8% 14.0%
Beverages, spirits and vinegar 0.784497 9.7% 12.1%
Sugars and sugar confectionery 0.631979 7.8% 9.9%
Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic
invertebrates 0.569927 7.0% 14.0%
Miscellaneous edible preparations 0.529197 6.5% 9.1%
Coffee, tea, maté and spices 0.482271 6.0% 9.0%
Edible fruit and nuts; peel of citrus fruit or melons 0.351619 4.3% 13.4%
Preparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk;
pastrycooks' products 0.310362 3.8% 13.5%
Table 21, Page 127
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37Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
List of supplying markets from SSA of food imported by SSA
Transformation in Regional Agri-food System
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Rest SSA
Swaziland
Kenya
Senegal
Tanzania, UnitedRepublic of
Côte d'Ivoire
Namibia
Zambia
Uganda
Ethiopia
South Africa
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38Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Regional Production and Prices in Maize Markets
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
SA ZAM MOZ TAN MAL ZIM KEN
$/t
on
Mil
lio
n t
on
s
Maize production & Prices
2014 2015 2016 2017 Maize price
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39Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Regional Production and Prices in Maize Markets
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
20
14
201
5
201
6
20
17
201
8
201
9
202
0
Th
ou
san
d t
on
s
Maize Net Exports
Total Net Trade
Zimbabwe
Uganda
DRC
Mozambique
Malawi
Tanzania
Zambia
Kenya
South Africa
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40Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Tanzania Sunflower Market
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41Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Selected bottlenecks of growth
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42Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Tariffs: South Africa vs. Competitors
Market Product
Market
Imports
('000 US $)
Exporters: Tariff & Export Value
South Africa
Tariff
South Africa
Exports
('000 US $)
Peru Tariff
Peru
Exports
('000 US $)
Chile
Tariff
Chile
Exports
('000 US $)
China
Grapes
603 197 13% 5342 0% 85 035 0% 171 362 (28%)
Thailand 114 948 43% 0 0% 29 720
Japan 51 715 17% 0 8.5% 25 017 (48%)
South
Korea189 512 45% 0 0% 126 654 (67%)
Market Product
Market
Imports
('000 US $)
Exporters: Tariff & Export Value
South Africa
Tariff
South Africa
Exports
('000 US $)
Peru Tariff
Peru
Exports
('000 US $)
Chile
Tariff
Chile
Exports
('000 US $)
Taiwan
Apples
244 576 20% 4 380 0% 32 956 (13%)
China 46 312 10% 25 0% 4 213 (9%) 0% 20 739 (45%)
China Plums 51 902 10% 45 0% 22 650 (44%)
China Avocadoes 11 956 25% 0 0% 74
Horticulture and Wine
Source: DAFF
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43Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Unlocking and Protecting Natural Resources
21 000 Ha
6 600 Ha
8 100 Ha
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44Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy
Boosting Output with the Correct Support
Source: GHS 2010- 2015 (Stats SA) Source: IVIS
Income sources for rural HH’s
Income sources for rural HH’s linked to
public private sector support programs
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45
Something to think about….