beyond zero emissions - zero carbon australia stationery energy plan
TRANSCRIPT
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BZE welcomesDoctors for the
EnvironmentThursday 19 September
Murali Nathan & Chitrani Perez
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Intro Slide
A plan to repower Australia with
100% renewable energy in 10 years
Zero Carbon Australia
Stationary Energy Plan
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Climate change is a problem of unprecedented scale andconsequence
Use of fossil fuels is the biggest cause of the problem
The ZCA Stationary Energy Plan provides easy solutions to theproblem of increasing need for energy from a growing populationwhile eliminating GHG emissions
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The difference between
2 & 4
is human civilisation
Business As Usual Global
Temperature Increase
2Guardrail Limit
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What kind of future do we need to prepare for ?
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A business as usual policy could see a 4 degree rise intemperatures by 2060.
On the hottest days, the temperatures could be :
6-8 degrees higher than the mean in China 8-10 degrees in Europe and 10-12 degrees in New York
Such unprecedented increases would give rise to a host ofissues about how the ageing infrastructure of our cities coulddeliver even survival-level services.
By 2100 the planet would become unliveable in most places.
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...if Australia builds up its coal exports
as currently planned, it would produce
30% of the carbon needed to pushglobal warming beyond two degrees.
By 2020 the countrys coal burnt
abroad will be producing three times asmuch CO2 as all the countrys cars
and factories and homes; by 2025, four
times. And so on.
Bill McKibben Do the math 2013
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Per Capita Global Carbon Budget 2010-2050
2/3 of a chance of keeping global warming < 2oC
Maximum CO2 next 40 years: 750 billion tonnes
= allocation of 85 tonnes for each person in the world
between 2010 and 2050
Australia emits >20 tonnes CO2 per Australian resident perannum
Business as usual: By 2050: >800 tonnes per person.
I.E. Our 85 tonnes share p.p. emitted in 4 years.
MUST reduce emissions to ZERO in 10 years so not to exceed
our share.
Source: Derived from paper by Prof HJ Schellnhuber, Director,
Potsdam Institute for Climate Science, Potsdam, Germany
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Per Capita Global Carbon Budget 2010-2050
R
ateofemissions
bynation
(tonnesofCO2
perca
pitaperyear)
USA
Germany
China
India
Burkina Faso
Quota: Global absolutemaximum of 85 tonnes per
person before 2050
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Head of the Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC in 2008, European Union and otherbodies talked about a 350 ppm atmospheric carbon as a desirable target to aim for.
In 2013 the levels breached 400ppm
More carbon in the atmosphere creates a negative feedback loop
A vast expanse of permafrost in Siberia and Alaska has started to thaw for the first time since it formed11,000 years ago, marked in dark blue on the map. It is caused by the recent warming in localtemperature. Peat bogs cover an area of a million square miles (or almost a quarter of the earth's landsurface) to a depth of 25 meters. Started to melt in the last 4 years with the potential to release vastquantities of methane trapped by ice below the surface - billions of tonnes of methane. World-wide, peatbogs store at least two trillion tons of CO2. This is equivalent to a century of emissions from fossil fuels.
This is one of the most feared tipping points
http://www.planetextinction.com
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Intro Slide
A plan to repower Australia with
100% renewable energy in 10 years
Zero Carbon Australia
Stationary Energy Plan
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Stationary Energy
Stationary energy is the supply of electricityto fixed outlet points; it is what we plug our
appliances into and run our industry from.
The ZCA Stationary Energy Plan is a detailed,
fully costed, resourced model to repower
Australia with 100% renewable energy in 10years
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Zero Carbon Australia Plan (ZCA) -
Guiding Principles Blueprint for a Zero Carbon Australia in 10years
Fully accept latest climate science evidence Specifies only Commercial-Off-The-Shelf
technology
Maintain or enhance Australias: Energy Supply security and reliability
Food and water security
Standard of living
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Traditional Power Generation
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Concentrated Solar
Thermal with
Storage CENTRALRECEIVER
(TOWER)
290oC
565oC
565oC
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Heliostat Field
Torresol Gemasolar
in full operation
Heliostat
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Thermal
Storage
Hot & Cold Tanks
exterior view
Interior of
tank under
construction
Solid
salt
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Spain 2011
Torresol Gemasolar
20MW. 15h storage
Only the beginning
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Brightsource and Abengoa are currently working on a 500 megawatts concentrated solar project in California thatwould be composed of twin 250-megawatt units with what should be the tallest solar towers in the world
Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a major exporter of oil and gas. Abu Dhabi is also a leader inrenewables. Their Shams Power Company in early 2013 started operating the 100MW Shams 1 concentrated
solar power (CSP) station
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World Solar Thermal growth
Globally 17.54GW built or under development
USA 8.67GW
Spain 4.46GW
China 2.5GW
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World Wind Power growth
Global investment increased 30% p.a. in last decade
China target 150 GW wind by 2020: (nearly 68 GW by
June 2012)
Denmark 50% wind by 2025 (Already 22% in 2011) Sweden 4,000 MW 1100 Enercon Turbines
Gl b l Wi d P th
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Global Wind Power growth
China 75,000 MW (2012) Target: 150,000 MW by 2020
U.S. 60,000 MW ~ 28% annual growth
Germany 31,000 MW ~ 7.5% annual growth
Spain 23,000 MW ~
Canada 6,200 MW ~ 25% annual growth
Portugal 4,500 MW ~ 13% annual growth
World-wide 282,000 MW (2012) - tripled since 2007
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In July 2013 the world's biggest offshore wind farm opened in the UK (175 turbines, 630MW)
The UK targets 16GW of offshore wind power by 2020, a huge increase from the 3.3GW of
installed capacity that they have now
- London Array
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"GWEC Global Wind Statistics 2011" Global Wind Energy Commission. Retrieved 15 March 2012.
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100% Renewable Energy for
Australia - three main components
Concentrated solar
thermal power
Wind powerUpgraded
electricity grid
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Module
220MWSunlab 220
X 17 = 1 Solar region
3500MW capacity
12 = 60% of Australias
Stationary Energy
delivered by Solar Thermal
with storage
Concentrated solar thermal power
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Module
7.5MW
Enercon
E-126
Turbine
330 = 1 Wind region
2500MW capacity
23 = 40% of Australias
Stationary Energy delivered by
Wind
Wind power
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100% Renewable Stationary Energy
~60%
Concentrated SolarThermal with storage
~40%Large scale
wind farms
~2% Backup withbio-mass and hydro
Existing grid
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Australia's renewable energy grid: 2020Australias Renewable Energy Grid 2020Solar RegionWind region
New HVDC line
New HVAC line
Existing grid
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Australia Best Solar Resource in the World
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30 year Cost to Economy all energy
BUSINESS AS USUAL ZCAZCA
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What about the jobs
lost in the mining and
oil industries?
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Labour Requirements
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507,000
tonnesCO2 saved
30 years
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How much will it cost?Can we afford it?
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Solar Thermal Cost Reduction
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Safe Climate: 3% of GDP for 10 years
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ZCA per year and Australias GDP
ZCA
AUS GDP (2009)
1200 ZCA $37Bn for 10 years
Australian Gambling 2009 $20Bn
Australian Insurance 2009 $38Bn
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30 year Cost to Economy all energy
BUSINESS AS USUAL ZCAZCA
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Why Coal Seam Gas is not a great idea
1.Methane is atleast 20 times more damaging than carbon di-oxide.
2.Leakages from extraction, processing, transport and delivery to point of use can be as much as 12%
3.Extraction involves potentially hazardous methods such as fracking
Fracking is the process of pumping water, sand and a cocktail of different chemicals, underground at huge
pressure in order to fracture open the coal seam and allow the gas to escape.
Fracking uses massive amounts of water a scarce resource in Australia. 11 million litres per well.Queensland alone has issued licences for 40,000 wells. Nationwide nearly a 100,000 wells could be in
operation by 2020.
CSG extraction damages prime agricultural land beyond repair
Fracking creates micro-seismic events (mini earthquakes), which cause the connection of naturallyseparated geological layers. This process can contaminate ground water with hazardous chemicals.
Australia does not require companies to list the chemicals they use in fracking fluids. However, experience in
the USA, Queensland and NSW shows the use of known carcinogens as well as other chemicals including:ethylene glycol, which affects kidney function, the lungs and heart; the BTEX group (Benzene, Toluene,Ethyl Benzene and Xylene), which affect bone marrow, the blood system and cause leukaemia; and othertoxins that affect hormone regulation and the reproductive system-http://quitcoal.org.au/fracking-in-victoria/
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Zero Carbon Australia - Conclusion
Will secure our climate and future
Technically doable
Uses commercially available technologies
Fully Resourced
We have the materials
Jobs rich
Fully Costed
3% of GDP for 10 years & 60% saving
over BAU in 30 years
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