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Beyond the Economic crisis:Towards a New State of

consciousness

Partha S Ghosh

The Boston Pledge

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Two points:1. Where are we? The Challenges and

Possibilities Ahead

2. Uncovering the Next Economic Paradigm? Towards a new state of consciousness

Today:

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The last three decades

Liberalization & Globalization

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The Challenge of “Globalized Financial Markets”

iThe Emerging Environment

Past Present

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The current crisis is unprecedented

LocalizedLocalized GlobalizedGlobalized

Linear Linear ComplexComplex

Early Stage Early Stage ConstraintsConstraints

1929 1929 2009 2009

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Power of Global Human Intellect is more compelling

Classical and Keynesian Economics Fuzzy Economic Paradigm

Industrial Revolution

Land reforms

Capital

Natural ResourcesLabor

Knowledge

Natural ResourcesLabor

Capital

HumanIntellect

Expanded scope of trade

KnowledgeRevolution

1929 1929 2009 2009

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How about three World scale Tornados at the same time?iTurbulence x Turbulence x Turbulence = T ³

Tornado 1=Over engineering of Economic systems

Undermining of ethics

Tornado 3=Imbalance of 3Es

Tornado 2=Clash of Perspectives

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Changing Ecology

Finite Resources

Increasing Sea Level

65 Billion Tons of CO2

Rising Temperature

Increasing Population

Powerful Forces at Work? Require long-range thinking

Equity

Deforestation

Changing Ecology

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Changing Ecology

Finite Resources

Wall Street Expectations

Increasing Sea Level

65 Billion Tons of CO2

Rising Temperature

Increasing Population

Instincts are short, Challenges are long: Clash of Perspectives?

Digitization requirements

Equity

Deforestation

CO2

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Geo-Political Alliances are In Transition as well

Paradigm Shift

USSR

EC

NATO

Cold War

PastPastPast FutureFutureFuture

Bond by ColdWar Forces of Alliances

ExpandedEC China

Asia?ROW?“New and

IndependentIdentity”

Reconfigure

WTOIssues

Single MarketPolitics

Deconstruction of PastGeopolitical Architecture

Uncertainties

ROW

U.S.

Japan

Asia

?U.S.

?

Reconfigure New Role?

Middle East Uncertainties

Russia

OPEC

OPEC

Japan

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000GDP / Capita (US$)

Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

n (‘0

00

KW

Hr /

Cap

ita)

Energy Consumption per Capita vs. GDP per Capita (2004)1

Most of the world is still in the early stage of Economic development

Ukraine

Russia

US

Kazakhstan Czech Republic

Malaysia

TurkeyBrazil

RomaniaThailandChina Egypt PhilippinesIndonesia

India

Italy

FranceGermany

UKJapan

Canada

80% of Global Population

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0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Japan

US

UK

Canada

GermanyFrance

ItalyMexico

Malaysia

Brazil

China

IndiaIndonesia

Pakistan

Nigeria

Bangladesh

Population Density v/s Primary Crop Yield per Ha (2003)1,2

Population Density in Persons/ sq. km of Land Area

Prim

ary

Cro

p Yi

eld

(100

0 M

t/Ha)

Boston Analytics Research1. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (http://www.fao.org/)2. CIA World Factbook, 2003

Land is dear but productivity (yield/Ha) still remains low, in recent years declining

Unhealthy Equation: High population density but low productivity of land

3 Times

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Super Turbulence…The Journey forward ?

??

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Clearly we are at the End of a Long Era?Pr

oduc

tivity

of S

ocie

ty

Economic Development Curves

Industrial Revolution 1 (Steam Engine)

Industrial Revolution 2 (Internal Combustion

Engine)

Information Revolution

Low

High

Time

2005 ~2010

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Two points:1. Where are we? The Challenges and

Possibilities Ahead

2. Uncovering the Next Economic Paradigm? Towards a new state of consciousness

Today:

16020926-BWL-WKF-Slides (Revise II)

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New state of consciousnessNew state of consciousnessNew state of consciousness

Towards a New State Consciousness

X

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Two fundamental RequirementsiInnovation Game Board

Scope ?

Low HighCourage to reconfigure

Normal

Abnormal

State of Consciousness

Rules?

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Moving forward we have to avoid the danger of linear thinking

2008/9 2058/9

Socio-economic experiments

1. Economic Philosophy

2. Relationship of Human with Nature

3. Micro Economic business models

Freedom of Self Expression to Renaissance

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Fundamental phase shift is required to develop the next generation Models

Resource Commitment

EconomicImpact Leadership for

Paradigm Shifts “Unpredictability, complexity & invisible assets”

X ism?“Predictable Dynamics”

Smith & Marx

Strategic Window

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The missing Vectors in Economic thinking

Market

Location of Power of Resource allocation

State

Single Dimension thinking of Economics

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The missing Vectors in Economic thinking

Individual

Market

Global

Systems

Content of Power

Engagement of Power

Location of Power of Resource allocation

Newtonian to Einsteinian SpaceAtoms to Bosons

Govt.

Expanding Strategic Space

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Expanding Strategic Space

Japan?

?

?Conventional space

Strategic

China

Transactional

Our economic thinking has to transform along the Three Vectors

i More & Better of the Same?

or

i Fundamental transformation?

Government Market

Systems

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Multiple assets in perspectives

Innovative IntegrationInnovative Innovative IntegrationIntegration

Technology

Diversity

From Exploitative

Relationship with Nature

To

EnrichingRelationship with

Nature

Values

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Turbulent Times …The Journey forward ?

The Boston Pledge ?

X ism?

Smith & Marx

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Scope of the Field?

Point Solution

Industry’s Future (?): Two Strategic Vectors

Perspective?Holistic/Integrative Solution

Conservation driven

Consumption driven

Balance?

Bal

ance

of E

colo

gy

Balance of Economic Advance

GraminBank

The Boston Pledge

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A Blueprint for Knowledge Based Economic Development

Nature

Conservation

Infrastructure

Grass Roots(30%)

Growth Avenues

Dynamic Economy based on High

“Social Intelligence at the Grass roots”

Bold Moves / CRASH Programs

Midterm Initiatives Long-term“Evolution” Programs

Renaissance

75

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Last 5,000 Years… …..Future Possibilities..

Economics of Economics of Linear Linear MechanicsMechanics:: Extraction, Extraction, Exploitation & ExperimentationExploitation & Experimentation

Economics of Economics of Closed Closed Loop HarmonyLoop Harmony

Knowledge for Knowledge for Recovery/RecycleRecovery/Recycle

New Technologies

AgroAgro

Energyand PowerClean Clean

WaterWater

Bio MassBio Mass Solar , Wind Solar , Wind Fuel CellsFuel Cells

BroadbandBroadband Clean EnergyClean Energy

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Macro Economy?

Fundamentals ?Various Critical Issues

Depleting resourcesLow Land Productivity

Widening Gap

EnergyDisappearing Ice caps

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Four fundamentals

Leap frog Ideas

Multiple Perspectives

Integrative Approach

Acceleration of Solutions

Vision of the Outcome

Net

Eq

uit

y

Bala

nce

Balance of EthicsNegative

Negative

Positive

Positive

Investment in Next generation Knowledge

Intensive inclusive programs

Bottom up Renaissance

Competitiveness based on values