beyond paris: the electricity industry and the …€¦ · james leaton research director...
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BEYOND PARIS: THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY AND THE
ACCELERATED MOMENTUM OF CLIMATE POLICY
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Level of fossil powered generation has to shrink in 2DS – a small slice of a smaller pie
Source: Carbon Tracker, Lost in Transition report, Nov 2015
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Energy imports by value 2014 – reducing imports makes economy and energy system more resilient
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And many of the largest importers (EU, US, China, South Korea) are seeking to reduce GHG emissions too.
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Proposed new coal without CCS doesn’t fit in 2DS – many planned plants are not getting built
Source: Climate Action Tracker
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GDP and power generation decoupling, eg Japan Energy efficiency improves energy security
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BloombergNEF – the tide has turned - non-fossil dominate capacity additions
Power generation capacity additions (GW) 6
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EU Utilities changing structures & business models - e.g RWE, Vattenfall, e.on
Splitting fossil fuels/ and renewables:
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Costs of solar coming down rapidly – need to keep up
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Technological change faster than expected
Source: Carbon Tracker, Lost in Transition report, Nov 2015
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Its not just about Paris
Largest 2 economies developing technology at scale
Others will get on board or get left behind Five year plan and CPP already
setting clear direction
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“Climate change is the biggest issue for the future” Stranded assets: “..investors must be given the data to “invest accordingly” Mark Carney, Governor, Bank of England
Financial regulators are now tracking carbon
Capital markets regulators getting involved
Source: Financial Times
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New market structures, demand managers, suppliers, prosumers, create opportunites
• Energy becoming as much about technology and finance as engineering
• Established utilities lose customers and financial strength
• Companies and Cities generating their own energy
• Infrastructure and efficiency can create investment opportunities
• The energy transition is already underway
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