beyond 2011 the future for population statistics? (introduction to options and consultation)
DESCRIPTION
Context Census – every 10 years Population statistics Social conditions Housing Uses: Resource allocation Service planning and delivery: local use, hospitals, commercial use Policy development, monitoring and review EU regulations and duty to report to Parliament small areas + multivariate combinationsTRANSCRIPT
Beyond 2011The future for population statistics?
(Introduction to options and consultation)
Outline
• The Beyond 2011 Programme ContextWhy look beyond 2011?Aims & timeline
• Statistical options development
• User consultation
• Wider engagement strategy
Context
• Census – every 10 yearsPopulation statistics Social conditions Housing
• Uses: Resource allocationService planning and delivery: local use, hospitals,
commercial usePolicy development, monitoring and review
• EU regulations and duty to report to Parliament
small areas+
multivariatecombinations
Beyond 2011
• Why look beyond 2011?Rapidly changing society
Evolving user requirementsNew opportunities – SRSA (2007) Traditional census difficulties International trends
• Exploring new options for the future provision of population and socio-demographic statistics
International Context
Enumeration Methods: households, UNECE member states
4
28
5
4
5
3
37
1
3
3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
No Census / No Plans
Traditional FieldOperation
Register & SampleSurvey
Register &Questionnaire
Administrative Registers
2011 2001
Source: United Nations
Statistical Options Development
• Administrative data-based options– Aggregate model– Record Level model– Intermediate model
• Census options– Traditional census – long form to everyone– Short-form/Long form census– Rolling census– Short form census and continuous survey
• Survey options– Address register + survey– Continuous survey
CENSUSPopulation Data
Socio demographicAttribute Data
CoverageAssessment
incl. under & over-coverage- by survey and admin data?
Socio demographicSurvey(s)
SOURCESFRAME DATA ESTIMATION OUTPUTS
Admin Sourc
ePopulatio
n estimate
s
AddressRegister
Household
CommunalEstablishments
Adjusting formissing data and error
Adjusting for non responsebias in survey (or sources)
Surveys to fill gaps
Commercial
sources?
Maintained national address gazetteer – provides frame for
population data & surveys
All National to Small Area
BEYOND 2011 – Overview of Statistical Options
Admin Sourc
e
Admin Sourc
e
Comm Source
increasing later?
Attribute estimate
s
Population distribution
provides weighting for attributes
InteractionalAnalysisEg TTWA
Socio demographic
SECURE ENVIRONMENT
Longitudinaldata
Household structure etc
??
Qualitymeasurement
Beyond 2011 – Options Development
May 2011
Late 2011
Autumn 2011
End2011
June2012
2014
longlist of
options
USERCONSULTATION
REFINEDEVALUATION
CRITERIA
INITIALEVALUATION
CRITERIA
shortlistof
options
2011 CENSUS OUTPUTS
recommendedoption(s)
FINALEVALUATION
CRITERIA
Early2012
Late 2013
AGGREGATEMODELS
ASSESSMENT
RECORD LEVELMODELS
ASSESSMENT
ROLLING CENSUS& OTHER OPTION
ASSESSMENT
PUBLICCONSULTATION
User Consultation
• Autumn 2011• Consultation document and questionnaire• Workshops
London 21 October (RSS)Leeds 3 NovemberCardiff 8 NovemberLondon 14 November
Wider Engagement Strategy
• Co-operation with devolved administrations
• Public acceptability - public consultation 2013
• Legal issues
• Political issues