between seismology and seismic design · between seismology and seismic design prof. roberto...
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Between Seismology and Seismic DesignProf. Roberto Paolucci
Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale, Politecnico di Milano
Milano, 10 dicembre 2013
Roberto Paolucci
2Outline
Seismic hazard analysis for critical facilities SIGMA Project, 2012-2013, 90 k€
High-performance computing tools to produce physics-based earthquake ground shaking scenarios in large urban areas Contract PoliMi-MunichRE, 2012-2013, 150 k€
Guidelines for the seismic design of a gas pipeline in Central Italy Contract PoliMi - SNAM Rete Gas, 2013, 128 k€
Integrated seismic design and assessment of foundations and structuresDPC-Reluis Project, 2011-2013 90 k€
Perspectives for research in Engineering Seismology at Politecnico
Roberto Paolucci
3The Sigma Project
Objective
to reduce uncertainties in the different phases of the seismic hazard assessment (SHA) process, with specific care to long return periods of interest for critical industrial facilities.
Major topics
earthquake catalog assessment improved catalog of seismogenic faults from national to European strong motion databases quantification of uncertainties in the probabilistic SHA accounting for site effects in the PSHA
Italian partners: PoliMi, INGV, Università della Basilicata
Roberto Paolucci
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: input
Seismogenic zones
4
Statistical analysis of earthquake catalogs within each zone
Empirical ground motion prediction equations
M
log N
N = Expected number of earthquakes per year with Magnitude > M
log N = a -bM
b ~ 1
Distance
log PGA
M2
M1
Roberto Paolucci
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: output 5
Seismic hazard map of Italy
PGA values with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years at rock sites (475 yrs return period)
Roberto Paolucci
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: output 6
Roberto Paolucci
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: objectives 7
(Macro) Seismic zonation
Seismic actions for design
Roberto Paolucci
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(1) Site-specific probabilistic hazard assessment in the Po plain area
The Sigma Project: contributions of PoliMi
Roberto Paolucci
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(1) Site-specific probabilistic hazard assessment in the Po plain area
main steps:
updated earthquake catalog for improved characterization of the seismogenic sources and models of occurrence
application of different Ground Motion Prediction Equations and quantification of uncertainties through a logic tree approach
constrain seismic hazard at long return periods by numericalsimulations of rare (characteristic) events from seismogenicfaults
The Sigma Project: contributions of PoliMi
Roberto Paolucci
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(1) Site-specific probabilistic hazard assessment in the Po plain area
10-1 1000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
T[s]
UH
SA
[g]
CAS site, RP 475 yr
AB11 (erg)AB11 (non-erg)Fea10 (erg)Fea10 (non-erg)Ita13 (erg)Ita13 (non-erg)Fea10 (erg) ROCKNTC2008 soil C
10-1 1000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
T[s]
UH
SA
[g]
CAS site, RP 2475 yr
AB11 (erg)AB11 (non-erg)Fea10 (erg)Fea10 (non-erg)Ita13 (erg)Ita13 (non-erg)Fea10 (erg) ROCKNTC2008 soil C
10-1 1000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
T[s]
UH
SA
[g]
CAS site, RP 10000 yr
AB11 (erg)AB11 (non-erg)Fea10 (erg)Fea10 (non-erg)Ita13 (erg)Ita13 (non-erg)Fea10 (erg) ROCK
The Sigma Project: contributions of PoliMi
Roberto Paolucci
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(2) Assessment of approaches to account for site effects in the PSHA
The Sigma Project: contributions of PoliMi
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(3) Numerical simulations of earthquake ground motion in the Po plain during the May-June 2012 seismic sequence
The Sigma Project: contributions of PoliMi
~ 8 km
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(3) Numerical simulations of earthquake ground motion in the Po plain during the May-June 2012 seismic sequence
The Sigma Project: contributions of PoliMi
M5.9 20/05/2012
M5.8 29/05/2012
Mirandola
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(3) Numerical simulations of earthquake ground motion in the Po plain during the May-June 2012 seismic sequence
The Sigma Project: contributions of PoliMi
May 29, 2012 (MW 6.0)
Roberto Paolucci
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Quaternary sediments (Po plain):
Quaternary sediments
Miocene formations
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1
Shear Strain (%)
G/G
max
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Dam
ping
Rat
io (%
)
Shear ModulusDamping Ratio
50015800
800300
)(
z
zVS
mzz
mzmz
zVP
5005001800
50015018001501500
)(
NLE soil behaviour in the top 150 m
5000725.02000
20001800
)(
z
z
mzzmz
mzzQS
500)500(03.08050015080
15030)(
3D subsoil model for the Po Plain
0 1000 2000 3000 4000-7000
-6000
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
VS (m/s)z
(m)
3D-basin3D-bedrock
Milana et al. (2013)
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(3) Numerical simulations of earthquake ground motion in the Po plain during the May-June 2012 seismic sequence
The Sigma Project: contributions of PoliMi
SD Elements#
Nodes#
t(s)
Duration (s)
fmax(Hz)
Walltime(512 cores)
3 1’852’651 50’850’136 0.001 50 ~1.5 ~4.55 h
Numerical simulations in the FERMI supercomputer, CINECA
Roberto Paolucci
Verification: comparison with the DWM (Hisada’s code)
RAV0MRN SAN0
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Roberto Paolucci
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(3) Numerical simulations of earthquake ground motion in the Po plain during the May-June 2012 seismic sequence
The Sigma Project: contributions of PoliMi
seismic fault
top of Early Pliocene(Messiniano)
Quaternary sediments
6 km
2 km0
4 km
8 km
Mirandola
Roberto Paolucci
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(3) Numerical simulations of earthquake ground motion in the Po plain during the May-June 2012 seismic sequence
The Sigma Project: contributions of PoliMi
Roberto Paolucci
20The PoliMi-MunichRE contract
Motivation (1)
Recent earthquakes in large urban and industrial areas caused major and unexpected losses for the reinsurance industry
8 costliest earthquake events worldwide
Roberto Paolucci
21The PoliMi-MunichRE contract
Motivation (2)
Empirical tools for ground motion prediction equations, that are not well constrained by records of real earthquakes, should be improved by synthetic ground motions based in numerical simulations
0.1 1 10 100Distance [km]
4
5
6
7
Mag
nitu
de
ITA10_MwITA10_MlRemoved data
available earthquake records in Italy
range of potential
damage to structures
Roberto Paolucci
22The PoliMi-MunichRE contract
Objective
to develop an open-source high-performance numerical code for seismic wave propagation analyses and to apply it for the generation of earthquake ground shaking scenarios in large urban areas
Roberto Paolucci
23The PoliMi-MunichRE contract
SPEED web sitehttp://mox.polimi.it/it/progetti/speed/SPEED/People.html
SPEED has been selected as one of the emerging applications with industrial relevance within the project PRACE-2IP WP 9.3 (2012-2013)
Roberto Paolucci
24The PoliMi-MunichRE contract
SPEED is an open-source code for the simulation ofseismic wave propagation in two- and three-dimensionalcomplex media.
SPEED is jointly developed by MOX (The Laboratory forModeling and Scientific Computing, Department ofMathematics) and DICA (Department of Civil andEnvironmental Engineering) at Politecnico di Milano.
SPEED is a discontinuous Galerkin spectral element codethat incorporates the open-source libraries METIS andMPI for the parallel computation (mesh partitioning andmessage passing). It has been designed with the aim ofsimulating large-scale seismic events, allowing theevaluation of the typically multi-scale wave propagationproblems in its complexity, from far-field to near-field andfrom near-field to soil-structure interaction effects .
Roberto Paolucci
25The PoliMi-MunichRE contract
The SPEED approach
Roberto Paolucci
26The PoliMi-MunichRE contract
Dynamic Soil Structure Interaction Traffic-induced vibrations
Seismic wave propagation in complex geological configurations
L’Aquila basin
SPEED potential applications
Roberto Paolucci
27The PoliMi-MunichRE contract
Roberto Paolucci
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~ 5 hours on FERMI using 512 cores
SANTIAGO DEL CILE
The PoliMi-MunichRE contract
Roberto Paolucci
29The PoliMi-MunichRE contract
Web repository of earthquake ground shaking scenarios
Roberto Paolucci
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Volume: ~ 50x80x45 kmSEs: ~ 350,000 hexahedra (~200,000 SEs in the basin)
non-conforming meshing strategy
The PoliMi-MunichRE contract
Work in progress: Wellington, New Zealand
Roberto Paolucci
31The PoliMi-MunichRE contract
Work in progress: Wellington, New Zealand
Roberto Paolucci
32The contract PoliMi – SNAM Rete gas
Objective
to prepare guidelines for the seismic design of the Sulmona-Foligno gas pipeline .
Major topics
overview of technical norms and guidelines in-field investigations (→ Zanzi, Lualdi) seismic input (→ Paolucci) seismic analysis under transient ground deformation,
including dynamic soil-structure interaction(→ Perotti, Martinelli)
seismic analysis under permanent ground deformation, including slope-stability, liquefaction, fault rupture (→ di Prisco, Pergalani, Mariani)
Roberto Paolucci
33The contract PoliMi – SNAM Rete gas
Roberto Paolucci
34The contract PoliMi – SNAM Rete gas
expected earthquake induced slope displacements along the pipeline (Pergalani & Compagnoni)
Roberto Paolucci
35The contract PoliMi – SNAM Rete gas
pipeline subjected to strike-slip fault rupture with increasing fault offsets
Roberto Paolucci
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Software for the design spectrum-compatible selection of real accelerograms(in cooperation with Università Federico II, Napoli)
Site definition andreference
structural codeselection (Italian,
European, or S5).
Limit statedefinition forcode-based
spectrumconstruction,or be
user definedspectrum input.
Target spectrumand compatibility
bounds.
Definition ofrange of periodswhere theaverage of the sethas to match thetarget spectrumand matchingtolerances.
Selection ofsearch for one setonly or formultiple sets, andsearch for originalor amplitude-scaled records.
Choice of setsize: one, sevenor thirty muti-componentrecords.
Choice of how many horizontal components should have each record in the set.
Definition of binsof interest in
terms of source,intensity, and site
parmeters.
Output management and secondary options
The project DPC-RELUIS
Roberto Paolucci
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Integrated seismic design and assessment of foundations and structures
The project DPC-RELUIS
Experimental results
Roberto Paolucci
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Integrated seismic design and assessment of foundations and structures
The project DPC-RELUIS
Numerical simulations by a non-linear macro-element model of the foundation
Roberto Paolucci
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Integrated seismic design and assessment of foundations and structures
The project DPC-RELUIS
Recent Publications
Paolucci R., Figini R., Petrini L. “Introducing dynamic non-linear soilfoundation-structure interaction effects in displacement-based seismicdesign. Earthquake Spectra, 29: 475–496, 2013
Ni P., Petrini L., Paolucci R. “Direct displacement-based assessment with nonlinear soil–structure interaction for multi-span reinforced concrete bridges”. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, in press, 2013.
Pecker A., Paolucci R., Chatzigogos C., Correia A., Figini R. “The role of non-linear dynamic soil-foundation interaction on the seismic responseof structures”. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, DOI 10.1007/s10518-013-9457-0, 2013.