bette meek-2013-a framework for fit
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Workshop Report
A framework for fit-for-purpose dose response assessment
M.E. Bette Meek a,, Michael Bolger b,1, James S. Bus c,2, John Christopher d, Rory B. Conolly e, R. Jeffrey Lewis f,Gregory M. Paolini g, Rita Schoeny h, Lynne T. Haber i, Amy B. Rosenstein j, Michael L. Dourson i
a R. Samuel McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, University of Ottawa, One Stewart Street, Suite 309, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1N 6N5b Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, 5100 Pain Branch Parkway, College Park, MD 20740, USAc Toxicology and Environmental Research and Consulting, The Dow Chemical Company, Building 1803 Washington St., Midland, MI 48674, USAd Independent Consultant, 8173 Suarez Way, Elk Grove, CA 95757, USAe U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 109 TW Alexander Dr., Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USAfExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences, Inc., 1545 Route 22 East, Annandale, NJ 08801, USAg Risk Sciences International, 325 Dalhousie Street, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1N 7G2
h U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., Washington, DC 20460, USAi Toxicology Excellence for Risk Assessment, 2300 Montana Ave., Suite 409, Cincinnati, OH 45211, USA
j Independent Consultant, 18 Ames Ave., Lexington, MA 02421, USA
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:
Received 11 September 2012
Available online 6 April 2013
Special note: This paper is dedicated to the
memory of Dr. Randall Manning of the
Georgia Department of Natural Resources.
Dr.Manning wasan earlyand avid supporter
of this collaborative effort, making
constructive comments during its 3rd
meeting, and listening well and supportingothers in their efforts to find common
scientific ground on seemingly intractable
risk assessment issues. His humor, kindness
and intellect are sorely missed.
Keywords:
Mode of action
Fit-for-purpose
Problem formulation
Framework
Tier
Endogenous
Methods compendium
a b s t r a c t
TheNRC report Science and Decisions:Advancing RiskAssessmentmadeseveral recommendations to improve
chemical risk assessment, with a focus on in-depth chronic doseresponse assessments conducted by the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The recommendations addressed two broad elements: improving
technical analysis and utility for decision making. To advance the discussions in the NRC report, in three
multi-stakeholder workshops organized by the Alliance for Risk Assessment, available and evolving risk
assessment methodologies were considered through the development and application of case studies. A
key product was a framework (http://www.allianceforrisk.org/Workshop/Framework/ProblemFormula-
tion.html) to guide risk assessors and managers to various doseresponse assessment methods relevant
to a range of decisioncontextsrangingfromprioritysettingto fullassessment,as illustrated by casestudies.
It is designed to facilitate selection of appropriate methodology for a variety of problem formulations and
includes a variety of methods with supporting case studies, for areas flagged specifically by the NRC com-
mittee for consideration e.g., susceptible sub-populations, population variability and background. The
framewok contributes to organization and communication about methodologies for incorporatingincreas-
ingly biologically informedand chemical specific knowledge into doseresponseanalysis, which is consid-
ered critical in evolving fit-for-purpose assessment to address relevant problem formulations.
2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
In 2009, the National Research Council of the National Academy
of Sciences (NAS) released a report entitled Science and Decisions:
Advancing Risk Assessment (NRC, 2009 also known as the Silver
Book). Recommendations encompassed two broad elements: (1)
improving technical analysis, namely developing and using scien-
tific knowledge and information to promote more accurate charac-
terization of risk; and (2) ensuring that risk assessments provide
meaningful support to allow discrimination among risk
management options. Specifically, recommendations addressed
the following areas: design of risk assessments, uncertainty and
variability, selection and use of defaults, a unified approach to
doseresponse assessment, cumulative risk assessment, improving
0273-2300/$ - see front matter 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yrtph.2013.03.012
Abbreviations: ARA, alliance for risk assessment; CPF, chlorpyrifos; MOA, mode
of action; NAS, National Academy of Sciences; NGO, non-governmental organiza-tion; NRC, National Research Council; PBPK/PD, physiologically-based pharmaco-
kinetic/pharmacodynamic; RfD, reference dose; VOI, value of information. Corresponding author. Address: Chemical Risk Assessment, McLaughlin Centre
for Population Health Risk Assessment, University of Ottawa, One Stewart Street,
Suite 309, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1N 6N5. Fax: +1 613 562 5380.
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (M.E. Bette Meek), [email protected]
(M. Bolger), [email protected] (J.S. Bus), [email protected] (J. Christopher),
[email protected] (R.B. Conolly), [email protected] (R.J. Lewis),
[email protected] (G.M. Paolini), [email protected] (R. Schoeny),
[email protected] (L.T. Haber), [email protected] (A.B. Rosenstein), dourson@-
tera.org (M.L. Dourson).1 Current address: Center for Chemical Regulation and Food Safety Exponent, 1150
Connecticut Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036, USA.2 Current address: Senior Managing Scientist, Center for Toxicology and Mecha-
nistic Biology, Health Sciences Group, Exponent, USA.
Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology 66 (2013) 234240
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Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology
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http://www.allianceforrisk.org/Workshop/Framework/ProblemFormulation.htmlhttp://www.allianceforrisk.org/Workshop/Framework/ProblemFormulation.htmlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yrtph.2013.03.012mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yrtph.2013.03.012http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/02732300http://www.elsevier.com/locate/yrtphhttp://www.elsevier.com/locate/yrtphhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/02732300http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yrtph.2013.03.012mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yrtph.2013.03.012http://www.allianceforrisk.org/Workshop/Framework/ProblemFormulation.htmlhttp://www.allianceforrisk.org/Workshop/Framework/ProblemFormulation.html -
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the utility of risk assessment and stakeholder involvement and
capacity-building within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(U.S. EPA).
As illustrated in Figure S-1 ofNRC (2009), the authors of the re-
port expanded the risk assessment paradigm of NRC (1983), prin-
cipally through inclusion of a problem formulation step including
framing of the assessment to address specific risk management op-
tions, explicit consideration of stakeholder input, and confirmation
that the assessment addressed the issues identified in the problem
formulation. The report (see Figure 58) provided additional guid-
ance on considerations for doseresponse assessment, including
endpoint assessment, assessment of mode of action (MOA), vulner-
able populations and background exposure, conceptual model
selection, and doseresponse method selection.
In response to recommendations of this report and other NRC
and international initiatives (e.g., NRC, 2007; IPCS, 2006, 2007;
Meek and Armstrong, 2007; Meek et al., 2011), improvement of
risk assessment practice continues to be explored in a series of ini-
tiatives, including the workshops described here, organized by the
Alliance for Risk Assessment (ARA, a coalition of non-profit
organizations).
The purpose of the workshop series, entitled Beyond Science
and Decisions: From Problem Formulation to DoseResponse
Assessment (henceforth, the ARA workshop series) was to extend
these discussions, with the goal of developing a practical compen-
dium of dose response assessment methods for fit-for-purpose
doseresponse analysis and potentially in future, other compo-
nents of risk assessment. While not referenced in the NRC report,
the concept of fit-for-purpose assessment has been widely adopted
recently in legislative mandates requiring greater efficiency in con-
sideration of much larger numbers of substances (see for example,
Meek and Armstrong, 2007) andin research initiatives, for example
in Lee et al. (2006), who described a fit-for-purpose approach for
biomarker method development and validation. Fit-for-purpose
doseresponse analysis encourages application of a level of rigor
commensurate with the intended purpose and use of an assess-
ment. As recommended by the NRC (2009) report, the nature andextent of the assessment needs to be considered in the problem
formulation stage, with level and complexity to be no greater than
that needed to identify the best choice among risk management
options (i.e., fit for purpose). In practice, this is accomplished
by having a variety of available tools (e.g., tools for acute vs.
chronic exposures) and using tiered approaches, proceeding down
the tiering only as far as necessary to set an issue, exposure or
chemical aside (as not of concern) or to target it for further assess-
ment and/or management.
Three multi-stakeholder workshops were held in 2010 and
2011. The workshops explored available and evolving methodolo-
gies through the development and application of case studies.
While these case studies covered a number of important aspects
of the NAS text, particular attention was focused on problem for-mulation, use of information on MOA and endogenous and back-
ground exposure during solicited speaker presentations and
panel discussions. This paper summarizes the outcome of the
ARA workshops and the resulting ARA fit-for-purpose dose re-
sponse assessment methods framework. This framework, which
is illustrated by case studies, is designed for use by risk managers
and scientists in a variety of settings (e.g., government agencies,
industry), for a range of applications and/or levels of analysis
including distributional, non-threshold methods for estimating
risk-specific doses for toxic effects other than cancer. Case studies
were selected to be illustrative of various approaches rather than
as assessments for any specific environmental contaminant. How-
ever, the scope and variety of included case studies are anticipated
to assist in the determination of appropriate assessment strategiesand relevant risk management options. Additional case studies are
also being sought for consideration in the context of the
framework.
2. Description of the workshop series
2.1. Workshop objectives and structure
The DoseResponse Advisory Committee (DRAC), which in-cludes state, federal, industry, and NGO representatives, organized
the workshop series on behalf of the now more than 50 workshop
sponsors. The DRAC determined the agendas in consultation with
the Science Panel. The Steering Committee of the ARA, which in-
cludes representatives from state, tribal, the federal government,
academia, and environmental NGOs (www.allianceforrisk.org/
ARA_Steering_Committee.htm) provided oversight of the work-
shop series.
The workshops were designed to address technical aspects
(methods development) based on robust process (stakeholder
engagement), as described in Table 1. Important aspects included
(1) broadly advertising the workshops; (2) providing for web-
based participation; (3) posting all workshop-related materials
on the web; (4) providing an open process for interested partiesto develop and submit case studies; and, (5) sponsorship by a
group of more than 50 diverse organizations.
The first workshop included two primary elements. About half
of this workshop was devoted to presentations by thought leaders
from various sectors on activities related to issues raised in the
NRC (2009) report, as well as perspectives on the NRC report.
The other half of the workshop was devoted to brainstorming
and evaluation of the impact for the NRC recommendations of 27
submitted proposals for case studies developed by volunteer teams
of scientists from numerous organizations. Some of the case stud-
ies reflected previously published work, while others were de-
signed to evolve specific methodological issues identified in the
NRC (2009) Science and Decisions report, such as approaches for
low-dose extrapolation. Based on the recommendations from
Workshop 1, case studies were developed and presented to the Sci-
ence Panel at Workshop 2 for their review, recommendations, and
consideration for incorporation into the Framework (see
Section 3.1).
Workshop 3 was organized primarily around three cross-cut-
ting topics identified by the Science panel: (1) problem formula-
tion, (2) use of mode of action information, and (3) endogenous/
background exposure. Discussion of each of these themes was ini-
tiated by a presentation by an expert on the topic, followed by
Science Panel discussion in the context of the case studies
presented.
Presentations, meeting material and reports from all three of
the workshops are available at, http://www.allianceforrisk.org/
ARA_Dose-Response.htm.
2.2. The science panel
Following an open nomination process, the ARA Steering Com-
mittee selected a Science Panel designed to reflect a range of affil-
iations, perspectives, and expertise (e.g., biology, risk assessment,
modeling). Particular effort was made to include representatives
from the NRC Science and Decisions committee and environmental
NGOs. Invitations were sent to 27 nominees, with 13 individuals
accepting the invitation. The Science Panel members for
Workshops 2 and 3 are listed at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/
Workshop/Panel.htm. Science Panel members provided input on
the utility of the case study methods to address specific problem
formulations, and identified areas for additional development ofthe case study and/or method. After the first three workshops, a
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similar open nominations process was followed, and the ARA
Steering Committee selected a standing Science Panel to serve for
23 years.
3. Results and discussion
This section describes issues related to three cross-cutting
topics that were the focus of the third workshop: (1) problemformulation, (2) use of mode of action information, and (3)
endogenous and background exposure. In addition, it describes
the development of the framework to organize and provide ac-
cess to dose response assessment methods, as illustrated by the
case studies.
3.1. Framework for identifying context specific methods for dose
response analysis
A key product of the ARA workshops was a framework to
guide risk assessors to different dose response methods relevant
to a variety of decision contexts ranging from priority setting or
screening to full assessment, and illustrated by case studies. The
framework is designed for use by risk managers and scientistsat the problem formulation stage, to aid in selecting appropriate
dose response assessment methodology, based on the objectives
of any specific assessment taking into account factors such as
time and resource constraints. This central resource for access
to methods and guidance from many organizations was
considered helpful as a basis to promote better planning for dif-
ferent levels of analysis required for specific risk assessment
applications.
The framework is available on-line at http://www.alliancefor-
risk.org/Workshop/Framework/ProblemFormulation.html and on
the National Library of Medicines Enviro Health Links suite of
databases at http://sis.nlm.nih.gov/enviro/toxweblinks.html . The
current version is derived from the general structure of the
doseresponse portion of the risk assessment framework pre-sented in the NRC (2009) report (Figures S-1 and 58 of the
NRC report). Based on need, the user chooses from amongst a
number of methods options for different decision contexts (e.g.,
priority setting, screening and full assessment); the ARA frame-
work also references case studies illustrating methods that can
address the topics and questions in the NRC report. Case studies
were selected based on the Science Panels evaluation of the util-
ity of the method to address a practical application. Inclusion of a
method or case study as an illustration of a useful technique does
not imply Science Panel consideration or acceptance of the chem-
ical-specific outcome.
It is expected that the framework will continue to be updated
with new and evolving methods. For example, areas where addi-
tional methods or tools exist are identified, even if case studies
have not yet been presented for consideration. Additional case
studies illustrating these and other methods are expected to be
added to the framework as they are submitted and considered by
the Science Panel.
3.2. Major themes discussed at workshop 3
Although the NRC (2009) report focused primarily on ap-
proaches to doseresponse analysis for in-depth assessments ofhazard from chronic exposure, the case studies addressed a broad-
er range of methods relevant to a variety of different decision con-
texts, including those for short term exposures and screening
assessments (e.g., see Case Study #1 below).
In addition to populating the framework with individual case
studies, the Science Panel focused its discussions in the final work-
shop on three cross-cutting topics: problem formulation, use of
MOA information, and the issue of how to address endogenous/
background exposures. Discussions concerning those cross-cutting
topics are summarized here and illustrated by representative case
studies. Additional details on these case studies including
strengths, weaknesses and minimum data needs, are available
at: http://www.allianceforrisk.org/Workshop/WS3/CaseStudiesWS3.
html. The case studies presented here address some of the majorthemes from Workshop 3, as well as illustrating the range of variety
in data requirements, approaches, and sophistication of analysis.
3.2.1. Theme 1: Problem formulation consideration of the risk
management Objectives and Options
The NRC (2009) report emphasized that the level and complex-
ity of a risk assessment should be no greater than what is needed
to identify the best choice among risk management options. Thus,
in order to optimize requirements for data generation and/or iden-
tification, available risk management options need to be consid-
ered at the earliest stage of an assessment and re-considered in
an iterative fashion throughout the process, based on additional
complexities uncovered during initial phases involving consulta-
tion with stakeholders.The extent of formal problem formulation in risk assessment
varies among different programs, stakeholders and institutions,
depending on decision context.
Value-of-information (VOI) analysis is a decision analytic meth-
od that characterizes the relative contribution (in a specific deci-
sion context) of specific information in reducing various
uncertainties in an assessment (Yokota and Thompson, 2004).
VOI analysis can be part of the problem formulation step, as well
as contributing to consideration of whether or not more informa-
tion would meaningfully inform an assessment. While there are a
number of challenges in instituting formal VOI analysis (including
the need to specify prior distributions and the need to know the
sensitivity of decision-makers choices to risk assessment out-
comes), the panel considered that informal (qualitative) VOI anal-ysis could potentially assist in focusing resources on issues and
Table 1
Workshop Objectives.
General workshop objectives:
Additionally develop the content of the NAS (2009) report on improving
the risk assessment process to develop a compendium of practical, prob-
lem-driven approaches for fit for purpose risk assessments, linking
methods with specific problem formulations (e.g., prioritization, screen-
ing, andin-depth assessment) for use by risk managers at a variety of lev-
els (e.g., states, regional managers, people in a variety of agencies, and in
the private sector).
Implement a multi-stakeholder approach to share information, ideas and
techniques in support of developing practical problem-driven risk assess-
ment methods compendium.
Specific workshop objectives:
Identify useful doseresponse techniques for specific issues, including
consideration of relevant data, characterization of assumptions, strengths
and limitations, and how the techniques address key considerations in
the doseresponse.
These techniques should appropriately reflect the relevant biology
(including the biology of thresholds), and mode of action information,
at a level of detail appropriate for the identified issue.
Provide methods to explicitly address human variability in cancer assess-
ment, and enhance the consideration of human variability in noncancer
assessment, including explicit consideration of underlying disease pro-
cesses, as appropriate for the relevant risk assessment context.
Identify methods for calculating the probability of response for noncancer
endpoints, as appropriate for the relevant risk assessment context. Develop a risk methods compendium that will serve as a resource for reg-
ulators and scientists on key considerations for applying selected dose
response techniques for various problem formulations, with suggested
techniques and resources.
236 M.E. Bette Meek et al. / Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology 66 (2013) 234240
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analyses that are fit-for-purpose for the relevant decision context
as a basis for increasing efficiency. Since there are few published
examples of informal VOI analysis the panel recommended devel-
opment of a case study to explore this avenue.
The panel noted that tiered approaches, such as summarized in
Case Study #1 below (see the full framework for further details),
also contribute to efficiency, with assessment proceeding to the
next tier only if needed to inform the risk management decision.
Prior problem formulation is helpful, then, in deciding which of a
series of approaches incorporating increasingly biologically in-
formed and chemical specific knowledge would meaningfully ad-
dress the choice among potential risk management options,
taking into account the potential impact of the decision and time
and resource constraints.
Case Study Box #1
Tiered Approach to Screening Level Development
Key point: A tiered approach appropriate for the decision
context, namely to set screening levels for acute exposures
for as many air contaminants as possible, for air permit-
ting for emissions from new or modified facilities.
Method: For chemicals with limited toxicity data, interim
screening levels for acute exposures can be derived using
a tiered approach. This includes application of either
default screening levels or derivation of generic health-
based screening levels, depending on the availability of
toxicity information and time and resource constraints.
Tier I assessments are based on a Threshold of Regulation
approach, using a default value of 2 lg/m3 (TCEQ, 2012;
the original case study was based on the then-current
default of 1 lg/m3). Tier II assessments can be based on
either (1) categorizing the chemical based on its LC50 and
identifying an appropriate Threshold of Concern for that
chemical category; or (2) using a conservative estimate
of a NOAEL-to-LC50 ratio based on a distributional analysis
of such ratios for known chemicals to extrapolate from the
LC50 for the chemical of interest to a health-protective
limit (Grant et al., 2007). Tier III assessments are based
on a relative toxicity/potency approach to extrapolate
from related chemicals (TCEQ, 2012).
Conclusions: Tiered strategies provide flexible and efficient
approaches, taking into account the decision context, data
availability and resource constraints. Screening assess-
ments use conservative default approaches with the goal
of providing health-protective results where the assess-
ment is resource-limited and/or the screening indicates
that further action and analysis are not needed. An impor-
tant aspect of using such tiered approaches is that if a
potential problemis indicated in a lower tier, and if impor-
tant for risk management, then the assessment is advancedto a subsequent, more informed, tier.
Consideration of the nature of decisions to be made in the
problem formulation is also critical to selection of the appropri-
ate form of expression of hazard for health-related endpoints;
that is whether or not to calculate a dose corresponding to a
specified risk level, such as the daily dose that, over a lifetime,
would result in a 1 105 population risk. The calculation of
risk-specific doses for any suitable endpoint (not just cancer
incidence) was noted by NRC (2009) as desirable, and of high
importance for cost-benefit analyses. However, the panel recom-
mended that this might be most useful when the measured or
predicted exposure approaches recommended limits such as a
Reference Dose (RfD). In other words, the panel recommended
that calculating a risk-specific dose may be helpful if exposure
is near an RfD or similar value, but it may be of much less
interest if the measured or estimated exposure is well below
(or well above) a safe dose, or if the application considered in
problem formulation requires the estimation of an RfD or similar
value.
Case Study #2 summarizes an approach developed by Hattis
et al. (2002) that could be used potentially to predict risk levels
at any dose of interest, if risk management options are best in-
formed by such analyses (e.g., cost benefit considerations). This
approach also draws on non-chemical-specific broadly based
information sources (i.e., for other chemicals and pharmaceuti-
cals) to improve the traditional uncertainty factor framework,
but draws on more generic (i.e., non chemical specific) informa-
tion and as such is likely to have greater relative uncertainty
than, for example, Chemical Specific Adjustment Factors (CSAF)
(IPCS, 2005).
Case Study Box #2
Use of Hattis Straw Man Approach for DoseResponse
Evaluation
Key point: Chemical-specific doseresponse data and gen-
eric distributional data are used to estimate risk for non-
cancer endpoints, based on the assumption of a
distribution of individual thresholds of toxicity.
Method: The Straw Man model provides a distribution of
risks at specified doses, and for illustrative purposes,
defines the reference value as the 5th percentile value of
the dose corresponding to a 1 in 100,000 increase in risk
of mildly adverse effects (Hattis and Lynch, 2007). Other
percentiles and risk levels could be used. The model ini-
tially estimates an uncertainty distribution for the effec-
tive animal dose expected to yield a 50% response
(animal ED50). It then applies a series of uncertainty distri-
butions based on specific chemical data, or empirical data
for other compounds to transform the animal ED50 to a
human ED50 uncertainty distribution (e.g., subchronic-to-
chronic, database deficiency, animal-to-human.) Next, sep-
arate distributions based on specific chemical data, or
empirical data for other compounds of human pharmaco-
kinetic and pharmacodynamic variability specific to the
organ system affected and the severity of effect are used
to account for human variability. The uncertainty distribu-
tions are combined in a Monte Carlo simulation to predict
a distribution of doses corresponding to a target risk level.
MOA data could be used in determining the relevant set of
reference chemicals for deriving the distributions.
Conclusions: The Straw Man approach draws on non-chem-
ical-specific broadly based information sources (i.e., forother chemicals and pharmaceuticals) to improve the tra-
ditional uncertainty factor framework. Science Panel mem-
bers recommended that further refinement would be
based on, for example, chemical-, endpoint- or route-spe-
cific MOA.
3.2.2. Theme 2: Fit-for-purpose MOA analysis for dose response
Most doseresponse assessments are based on effect levels
identified in animal or human doseresponse studies designed
principally to identify defined hazard response levels,
(e.g., NOAEL, LOAEL, etc.), followed by application of default
extrapolation approaches (e.g., division by uncertainty factors
or linear extrapolation). Only rarely are MOA data used directly
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in the doseresponse analysis and risk characterization. Lack of
integration of data on MOA limits predictivity, since results then
cannot be easily extrapolated to other chemicals and/or condi-
tions. Early focus on patterns of effects, taking into account
MOA data on toxicokinetics and dynamics, can be informative
in considering appropriate approaches for extrapolations
addressing interspecies differences and human variability. Thus
MOA analysis can be applied throughout an assessment, inform-
ing many aspects flagged as important in NRC (2009), including
but not limited to the approach for low-dose extrapolation. For
example, MOA is critical in identifying likely susceptible popula-
tions and the potential range of variability in response in both
the general and susceptible populations. Work to develop a
database of accepted MOAs as noted by Carmichael et al.
(2011) will additionally facilitate incorporation of MOA in risk
assessment to address issues raised within the NRC Science
and Decisions report.
The NRC (2009) noted that there is a need for increased
understanding in the risk assessment community of the basis
for defaults and their underlying assumptions, so that asses-
sors can evaluate if and when other approaches may be
appropriate. The NRC committee stressed that clear criteria
and guidance should be available for judging whether, in spe-
cific cases, data are adequate to support inference in place of
default, and what level of evidence is needed to justify use of
agent-specific data instead of a default. An important contribu-
tion of the workshops and framework relates to increasing
familiarity in an accessible and structured format, with inter-
national and existing relevant US EPA guidance and illustrative
case studies, addressing specifically the objective above cited
by the NRC committee (see, for example IPCS, 2005, 2006;
U.S. EPA, 1994, 2011).
Depending on the needs identified in the problem formulation,
there is a range of approaches incorporating increasingly biologi-
cally informed and chemical specific knowledge on MOA, into
doseresponse assessment (see Fig. 1 and associated guidance).
These approaches as considered here reflect a continuum ofincreasing degrees of understanding of how (the) chemical(s) in-
duce(s) critical adverse effect(s) and the implications of that infor-
mation for understanding dose response. Thus, problem
formulation should include consideration of the appropriate extent
of analysis of MOA in any assessment, depending on the expected
importance to potential risk management decisions. Transparency
in problem formulation regarding the expected value of the MOA
analysis also serve to provide up front incentives for valuing col-
lection of information on MOA.
Case Study Box #3 illustrates the potential of information on
MOA to inform more predictive and accurate quantification of
doseresponse in humans, including potentially sensitive popula-
tions; see also the case study on chemical-induced ovarian ef-
fects (Kirman and Grant, 2012). Implications of the mode ofaction analysis for this case study are relevant to other com-
pounds that act through cholinesterase inhibition, but for which
fewer data are available; the case study also illustrates how
MOA can be helpful in addressing one of the more generic meth-
odological issues raised in the NRC report (i.e., addition to back-
ground). In relation to the latter, the NRC (2009) report stated
that effects of exposures that add to background processes
and background endogenous and exogenous exposures can lack
a threshold if a baseline level of dysfunction occurs without
the toxicant and the toxicant adds to or augments the back-
ground process, an idea initially raised by Crump et al.
(1976). However, Case Study #3 provides an example of using
a data-based, computational modeling approach to inform the
low-dose response in the face of background biological activity,
rather than being constrained to either of two alternative default
approaches.
Case Study Box #3
Quantitative Assessment of Sensitivity and Variability in
Humans
Key points: This study addresses MOA, human kinetic anddynamic variability, background response variability, and
interaction with background exposures and predisposing
disease processes.
Method: A source-to-outcome model provided a quantita-
tive description of the relationship. between the amount
of dietary residues of chlorpyrifos (CPF) in food, and the
impact of the exposures on inhibition of cholinesterase in
exposed populations (Price et al., 2011; Hinderliter et al.,
2011). Longitudinal dietary exposure was modeled and
combined with a physiologically based pharmacokinetic/
pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model of response. The
resulting model quantitatively predicts changes in the
activity levels of cholinesterase that occur as a result of
an oral (i.e., dietary) dose of CPF. Variability in dose andresponse was addressed through Monte Carlo analysis.
Conclusions: The approach illustrates the use of chemical-
specific MOA data to characterize the doseresponse for
a chemical at environmentally relevant exposures, includ-
ing consideration of variations in background biological
activity. It allows for identification of a dose that does
not cause a biologically meaningful change in a critical
precursor MOA key event (cholinesterase inhibition), and
by inference, one where increases in apical effects are
not expected, even for individuals who are at increased
susceptibility due to other stressors. This approach is an
example of how MOA can inform a population threshold
as defined by NRC (Conceptual model 2 as described by
NRC, 2009, page 141).
3.2.3. Theme 3: Endogenous and background exposures
The Science Panel identified several issues relevant to the dose
response implications of exogenous exposures that had similar
impact as an endogenous process. In such scenarios, population
variability in endogenous levels and associated response needs to
be considered, but high variability alone is an inadequate basis
to conclude that exogenous exposure may be a trivial contributor
to risk. Of critical importance is the quantitative difference be-
tween the magnitude of response associated with endogenous
exposures compared to that induced by exogenous exposures. In
particular, a key issue in this comparison is how close the biologi-
cal response to endogenous levels is to an adverse effect level (i.e.,how much of a margin exists between the level of exposure for the
biological response and the level of exposure for the adverse ef-
fect). It would be helpful to understand, for example, the relative
contribution to total dose of both endogenous and exogenous
sources, and any kinetic differences between the two sources in
the formation or disposition of the chemical that may affect its
toxic potential. This sort of information can better inform selection
of dose response models appropriate for assessing risks associated
with low-dose exogenous exposures, as a basis for informing risk
management options (see also the case study on background/
endogenous damage at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/Workshop/
WS3/CaseStudies WS3.html).
As an example, DNA damage originating from some exogenous
chemical exposures may be identical to that resulting from
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endogenous biological processes. For other chemicals, these two
sources of DNA damage may be differentiated, but only by complex
laboratory testing. For example, Swenberg et al. (2011) showed
that low-level exogenous chemical exposures result in DNA ad-
ducts, the nature of which are indistinguishable from those result-
ing from endogenous background, and those resulting from
exogenous exposure only exceed endogenous levels at higher
doses. These cases can provide key generic insights into the poten-
tial shape of the dose response curve and the risk associated with
low-level exposures to some DNA-reactive substances.
3.3. Additional methods needed
The Science Panel identified the following priorities for future
addition to illustrate and populate the framework:
Risk assessment for combined, multiple, exposures including
aggregate and cumulative exposures.
Case studies on value of information.
Case studies that illustrate an entire risk assessment, from prob-
lem formulation to conclusion.
Case studies that illustrate in vitro to in vivo extrapolation.
The Science Panel also recommended investigating the poten-
tial utility of linking the ARA methods Framework to case studies
and examples that illustrate methods that have not undergone
ARA Science Panel review.
4. Conclusions and future work
There is a wide range of decision contexts, necessitating differ-
ent approaches to doseresponse analysis. Incorporation of
increasingly biologically informed and chemical specific knowl-
edge in MOA-based approaches has the potential to additionally
refine estimates of hazard based on issues identified by the NRC
(2009) committee, including, for example, consideration of suscep-tible subgroups, though this must necessarily be balanced against
resource and time constraints for completion of assessments to in-
form risk management.
Sharing and communicating in structured fashion (the devel-
oped framework to consider potential contribution of these meth-
odologies in a problem formulation context) is considered
important as a basis to increase understanding of the availability
of various methodologies incorporating increasingly biologically
informed and chemical specific knowledge. The ARA methods
framework is expected to contribute to increasing transparency
in the basis for selection of fit-for-purpose approaches to dosere-
sponse assessment as well as to promote continuing advancements
in that practice, as a basis to increase predictivity and efficiency.
Such transparency is anticipated to aid in distinguishing and com-municating science judgments (i.e., weighting of options based on
transparent consideration of available scientific support) from
science policy, (i.e., selection of options motivated by the desire
for increased public health protection). Subsequent revisions of
the ARA framework are intended to better enable interested risk
assessment scientists to consider a broad range of dose response
methods in the context of recommendations made in the NAS re-
port and perhaps more importantly, may facilitate selection by risk
managers of an appropriate dose response method through a re-
view of problem formulations offered in different case studies.
The ARA is facilitating an ongoing process to expand the repos-
itory of fit-for-purpose methods for doseresponse analysis. New
methods and revisions will be incorporated to keep the ARA meth-
ods Framework and materials evergreen. This approach includes
Science Panel review of methods on a regular basis, allowing for
updates to additionally illustrate the ARA risk assessment methods
framework. Additional enhancements could also include expansion
of the framework from the current focus on doseresponse meth-
ods to include other components of risk assessment.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.
Funding sources
The workshop series described in this paper was supported by
over 50 sponsorsand collaborators, includinggovernment agencies,
industry groups, scientific societies, non-profit organizations/con-
sortia, and consulting groups. These groups are listed at http://
www.allianceforrisk.org/ARA_Dose-Response_Sponsors.htm . Some
government employees received travel reimbursement for their
participation, but no other compensation.
Disclaimer
The information in this document has been funded in part by
the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. It has been subjected
to review by the National Health and Environmental Effects Re-
search Laboratory and approved for publication. Approval does
not signify that the contents reflect the views of the Agency, nor
does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute
endorsement or recommendation for use. This paper reflects the
views of the authors and does not necessarily represent views or
policies of the employers of the non-Agency authors. These views
should also not be construed to represent those of science panel
members who are not listed as contributing authors. Nor should
these views be construed to represent those of the projects 55
sponsors.
Acknowledgments
The authors thank the almost 50 sponsors and collaborators
includinggovernment agencies, industrygroups,scientificsocieties,
non-profit organizations/consortia, and consulting groups (http://
www.allianceforrisk.org/ARA_Dose-Response_Sponsors.htm ). The
workshop series built upon the consideration of the evolution of
risk assessment of the authors of Science and Decisions (NRC,
2009). Results of the workshop series are available at http://
www.allianceforrisk.org/ARA_Dose-Response.htm . The authors
wish to thank all of the workshop participants for their contribu-
tions, particularly the case study authors, science panel members
who declined or were otherwise unavailable for authorship andOliver Kroner for his work in organizing the workshops.
Fig. 1. Increasingly biologically-informed and chemical-specific approaches.
M.E. Bette Meek et al. / Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology 66 (2013) 234240 239
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