betfairguru euro 2016 guide

7/25/2019 BetfairGuru Euro 2016 Guide

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BetfairGuru Trading ServiceEuro 2016 Betting Guide


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Hello and thanks for taking a look at the guide, hopefully all will go well and we can expand this

idea for future tournaments. It should be highlighted at the outset that this is merely an experiment

at this stage, being the culmination of a process I began some time ago now with the ultimate aim of

being able to include International Football advice for members of the BetfairGuru Trading

Service.

At the start of play, the groups will be as follows below. Our intention in this guide is to rank thestrength of each team, simulate the games multiple times, proect result likelihoods and then

establish which teams are perhaps being underrated (therefore value), which are overrated and

which players are likely to be the more unheralded stars of the tournament.

!he entire process is a lengthy one but one which will hopefully prove uni"ue and effective going

forward. Having access to an accurate repository for betting on competitive Internationals will giveus more options throughout the season than your average football trader.

#e$ll go through the groups one%by%one in the pages that follow before we get to the latter stages

and begin making predictions as to how it$s likely to all pan out at the business end.

Of course, to do this, we must also haver a reference with which to compare our proections and you

can see the full price lists for the main markets shortly before the tournament on the following page.

#e$ll look at the prices for groups separately in each section.

If you have any "uestions on this process or would like to learn how to build models like this, I will

have details of an upcoming workshop on the websitein the coming days so be sure to subscribeto ensure you don$t miss out&

Group A

Teams Teams

Albania England

France Russia

Romania SlovakiaSwitzerland Wales

Group C Group D

Teams Teams

Germany Croatia

Northern Czech

oland S!ain

"kraine Turkey

Group E Group FTeams Teams

#elgium Austria

$taly %ungary

Re!ublic $celand

Sweden ortugal

Group B
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All Teams Strength

TEAM STRENGTHS by group TEAM STRENGTHS ALL

TEAM STRENGTH TEAM STRENGTH

France &''()(* Germany &+&'),-

Switzerland -&.),' England &'/()0(

Romania &-,)0/ France &''()(*

Albania &+.)+& S!ain &(-.)0*

England &'/()0( $taly '0*.)(+

Wales --*)/- ortugal '*-,)++

Russia ./*),/ #elgium '/,*)(-

Slovakia /+.)/* oland '/'')0(

Germany &+&'),- Turkey '&'()(,

oland '/'')0( R) o2 $reland '(&&)/(Northern $reland */*)(+ Wales --*)/-

"kraine '-,)'- Croatia -0*),.

S!ain &(-.)0* Switzerland -&.),'

Turkey '&'()(, Sweden .-/)0-

Croatia -0*),. Russia ./*),/

Czech Re! 0-+)+( Czech Re! 0-+)+(

$taly '0*.)(+ Northern $reland */*)(+#elgium '/,*)(- Austria *(/)'*

R) o2 $reland '(&&)/( $celand +*&)/&

Sweden .-/)0- Slovakia /+.)/*

ortugal '*-,)++ Romania &-,)0/

Austria *(/)'* Albania &+.)+&

$celand +*&)/& "kraine '-,)'-

%ungary '&-)'( %ungary '&-)'(


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GRO! A

Group A

Albania

FranceRomania

Switzerland


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In what looks, on paper, to be a walk in the park for favourites and host%nation France, they face a

series of extremely defensive teams so goals may not be all that easy to come by. #hen we look at

the raw data though, goals should be plentiful so what is the issue here

I suspect it$s down to the way my ratings are compiled (based on individual player strength as

opposed to team strength)and what we may see is hard won victories by small margins as opposed

to the proected cricket scores.

!he rating suggest the final group table will end up looking like this

A table most of us would probably have selected before a ball is kicked but it$s always nice to have

something obective when betting in my opinion and, from experience, much prefer to trust

numbers than my own fleeting opinion. It$s always possible the proections are wrong, but that is, of

course, an error on my part - the data itself cannot lie or convince itself it knows better than

somebody else.

!he group betting for this group can be viewed on the following page and of particular interest to

me considering the proections are the following bets

GROUP A BTS

Albania to finish rock%bottom / 0.12

*traight Forecast % 0stFrance34nd*wit5erland / 4.67

Group A

Teams W D L Pts

France / ( ( ,

Switzerland & ( ' 0

Romania ' ( & /

Albania ( ( / (


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GRO! B

EnglandRussia

SlovakiaWales

Group B


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In what$s sure to be a tightly contested group for reasons we can$t "uantify, (Wales will be super-

motivated to beat England beyond what would normally be expected from other teams but try to put

a number to that) I don$t think the final group proections are that much of a surprise ina ll honesty

although going off my own opinion, 8ussia are a better side than #ales whom I believe to be

somewhat over%rated.

(o cricket scores expected but a comfortable ride for 'ngland is predicted and I am surprised howhighly 'ngland have rated overall in this tournament. Far from being the typical 9it$s our year: type,

I will say 'ngland seem to have discovered a handy knack of finding victories even when they

aren$t playing particularly well - albeit against far from stellar opposition.


I think 8ussia will have more to say and *lovakia are fresh off the back of some good form so I

don$t expect it$ll be plain sailing for the home nations but here I go again - guessing&

!he group betting for this group can be viewed on the following page and of particular interest tome considering the proections are the following bets

GROUP B BTS

;roup #inner - 'ngland / 0.


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GRO! "

Group C

GermanyNorthern

oland

"kraine


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An interesting group given ;ermany$s recent poor form and apparent lack of s"uad cohesion and

team spirit if newspaper reports are to believed. However, when we consider their tournament

record they are impossible to discount and I expect we$ll see what the ratings suggest and what we

always see - efficient and sometimes blistering group performances and easy "ualification from the

group for the #orld >hampions.


)oland will also have a say as they have an under%rated s"uad with most of their players now

gracing the top 'uropean leagues and a sure%fire goal machine in ?ewandowski. (orthern Ireland

and @kraine one of the weakest sides of allB will do well to register points and look for a C rdplace

finish - this should particularly suit (orthern Ireland who will likely ust play for draws in the hope

it$s enough to get them through as a "ualifier in C rdplace.

I don$t remember this Crdplace nonsense being used since the 011D world cup and it$s proven

difficult to predict which teams will receive the berths. In order to separate teams for the latter

stages, I used the teams attack ratings as the deciding factor with the logic being - better attacking

sides will likely have scored more goals and therefore be in a better place to "ualify in Crd

.

)rices for group betting on the following page and the bets of interest would be

GROUP ! BTS

@kraine to finish rock bottom / 2.0

Group C

Teams W D L Pts

Germany / ( ( ,

oland & ( ' 0

Northern $relan ' ( & /

"kraine ( ( / (


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GRO! #

Group D

Croatia

CzechS!ain

Turkey


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!he toughest group bar none and one which could swing all ways depending on each teams results

against *pain. However, the ratings suggest the final group table will end up looking like this

#ith !urkey given the nod over a super%talented >roatia side but one without ruthless goal threat

and a technically gifted and hard%to%beat >5ech team without an obvious outfield star.

*pain to walk it sounds about right, especially now they have given up on the Eiego >osta proect. Iwondered how a coach being paid millions per year and dripping in managerial honours could fail

to see how much he broke up their pattern of play during the last #orld >up. I often sat astounded

he was given game after game despite it being glaringly obvious to me what the issue was.

!he entire *panish system, in my opinion, only works if you have a fluid front man, playing back to

goal and happy to interact with the midfield whilst moving continuously. I think they call the most

fre"uently used, penetrative stages of the attack something like 9!he #all: and it seems near

impossible to defend against at times - this could not work with >osta in the side and whilst the

likely replacement is either an ageing ourneyman without top%level experience or an over%hyped

youngster who doesn$t score a lot of goals, the makeup of their s"uad suggests a reversion to the

tactic of old and I expect their struggles in the #orld >up to end.


GROUP " BTS

>5ech 8epublic to finish rock bottom / 4.Conte$s approach is a much more Italian way of playing the game

as opposed to the free%flowing stuff they were trying to play a couple of years back. #hilst gone arethe ultra%defensive days of the past, the high%intensity pressing in their own half and the midfield

hunting in packs are rather Sacchi-esqueand the perfect antidote to most other tactical systems

currently in favour. I also back them for every tournament as in my view they$re always over%priced.

!he numbers agree with most of what I$ve said above and elgium are given top spot courtesy of a

higher attacking rating therefore likely to have scored more goals. !he match between them is

predicted as a draw and I would think both sides would take that before the game.

*weden, Glatan aside, look distincly average and that$s a real shame for one of the most techincally

gifted players I$ve seen in what$s likely to be his last maor tournament. For ther romantics, his forceof will has been shown overwhelming at times but to carry the team through C tough games here is

asking too much in my opion.

Ireland lack star "uality but as always have a good team spirit, are hard to break down and don$t fear

giving their all, win or lose - an attribute 'ngland could have done with adopting over the years


GROUP BTS

*weden to finish rock bottom / 4.


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GRO! $

Group F

Austria%ungary

$celand

ortugal


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A very interesting group with a number of surprise teams in Austria and Iceland - you may also

mention Hungary as they look especially weak and it$s a wonder how they got here.

Austria blit5ed their "ualifying group dropping only 4 points and their football has come on leaps

and bounds in the last few years with a lot of their players now playing in top 'uropean leagues. As

with Hungary, the Austrians were once a great side but after decades of mediocrity it$s Austria that

is again making strides albeit a long way from both sides of years gone by.

Iceland also "ualified - somehow - and find themselves very much out of their depth but with

nothing to lose, 5ero expectancy on their shoulders and a favourable group they will look to at least

salvage some pride and perhaps thank their stars they got grouped with Hungary&

Final group proections look like this

)ortugal looked decidedly average although better than 'nglandB in their recent friendly but I

expect to see a good side, technically gifted, comfortable in possession and also not shy of a little

spite which I think you need in the big games.


GROUP # BTS

Hungary to finish rock bottom / 4.D6

*traight Forecast % 0st)ortugal34ndAustria / C.22

Group F

Teams W D L Ptsortugal / ( ( ,

Austria & ( ' 0

$celand ' ( & /

%ungary ( ( / (


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$inal stages)roections for the last 07 were difficult as, mentioned earlier, there is a different system in place

this time around with Crdplace teams able to "ualify from the groups also. I worked around this by

focusing on the attacking ratings given that attacking sides were likely to have scored more goals

and therefore likelier to end up ranking higher for Crd%places sides.

!he proections for the rest of the tournament can be found in the following pages, followed by a

section on betting suggestions at the end of the guide which summarises the bets we have looked at

in the earlier parts of the guide.


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%ast 16Here are the proected games for the last 07

In most cases, exactly what you$d expect but I was surprised at #ales$ showing. )ortugal and Italy

were predicted to draw - something I would predict - and )ortugal were given advantage

considering they were better offensively.

!his may seem a crude way of ascertaining the victor but you have to use something and as it$s only

a test I went with primitive logic and settled it this way.

!his gives us "uarter%finals as follows

Last 16

Matches W!!er

' Switzerland oland

oland

& S!ain S!ain

R) o2 $reland

/ England England

Croatia

+ ortugal 3raw

$taly

* Germany Germany

Russia

0 #elgium #elgium

Turkey

. France France

Croatia

- Wales Wales

Austria


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&uarter $inals

Fairly dominant wins proected for each victor here, barring 'ngland who are picked to scrape

home vs )ortugal. France shall demolish #ales whereas *pain and ;ermany are strong favourites in

their matches also.

!his leaves us with the top 6 in the betting market so the system may not be too bad after all.A

dutch bet would give us a worst%case scenario of a small win, provided everything goes to plan of

course and it$s hardly the most original suggestion in the world but there$s no point in working the

numbers if you$re going to ignore them in the "uest to appear creative.

*emi%finals are then structured as follows..

$inner %arket & BT

Outright winner % E@!>H '! France 6.4B3;ermany 2.2B3*pain 7.7B3'ngland 0DB

"uarter F!a#s

Matches W!!er ' oland S!ainS!ain

& England England

ortugal

/ Germany Germany

#elgium

+ France France

Wales


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Semi $inals

In two very close affairs, *pain are taken to edge 'ngland there is nothing in this game according

to the figures - D.D4 of a goal when all$s said and doneB whilst France fall here to the ;ermans in

slightly less tense circumstances.

In reality, both of these games could go either way but the finalists are taken as follows

Semiina' Bet

ack the 1D minute draw in both semi%finals / !>ack @nder 4.2 goals in both semi finals / !>

Se$%F!a#s

Matches W!!er ' S!ain S!ain

England

& Germany Germany

France


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$inal

;ermany are crowned winners and as #orld >hampions it$s perhaps no surprise it worked out this

way. !heir expected performance and margin of victory are both identical to their semi%final against

France suggesting there is very little between *pain, France and ;ermany on any level in any given

match up.

A low scoring affair suggests the value will be that side, but I expect the prices will hardly be

outrageous either so play it as it comes as it$s kind of expected in a final anyway.

!hanks for reading and I$ll be sure to fire out an update after the tournament to look at how we

would have done had we followed this advice to the letter. It$s pleasing for me to have a full modelin place at all for International matches and I expect it$ll have to be a work in progress before we get

it exactly where we want it.

#ith matches limited, this will take some time but if anybody would like to explore it further, don$t

be shy in getting in touch.

#e$ll finish with a summarised bets list.

F!a#

Matches W!!er ' S!ain Germany

Germany


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All Bets %istedGROUP A BTS

Albania to finish rock%bottom / 0.12

*traight Forecast % 0stFrance34nd*wit5erland / 4.67

GROUP B BTS

;roup #inner - 'ngland / 0.

ack @nder 4.2 goals in both semi finals / !>

And an $outside the box$ type bet but a much considered one all the same although not part of the

method explained in this guide, ust my own bet....

Top Goa'scorer

+arko Arnautovic / 4DD

betfairguru euro 2016 guide

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