Beta Test of a PrototypeDynamical Model Track PredictionEvaluation System for the Atlantic

(DYMES)Mark Boothe and Dr. Russell Elsberry

Department of MeteorologyNaval Postgraduate School

LCDR Laura SalvadorTropical Prediction CenterNational Hurricane Center

Funding provided by:USWRP

Acknowledgments:Jim Peak and Dan Martinez

Computer Sciences Corporation

Environment Structure TC Structure Synoptic Pattern

Synoptic Region

Intensity

Size

Transitional Mechanisms

Environmental Effects TC-Environment Transformations

Determines the direction & speed of the steering flow that

moves the TC

TC-independent processes that change environment

structure (steering)

TC-dependent processes that change environmental structure (steering) and

sometimes TC structure

Inputs to TC-Environment TransformationsResults of Transitional Mechanisms

Determines best steering level

Key factor in TC-Environment Transformations

TC Motion Meteorology Knowledge Base Framework

Environment Structure TC Structure Synoptic Pattern

Synoptic Region

Intensity

Size

Transitional Mechanisms

Environmental Effects TC-Environment Transformations

Inputs to TC-Environment TransformationsResults of Transitional Mechanisms

TC Motion Meteorology Knowledge Base Framework

Equatorial Westerlies (EW)Tropical Easterlies (TE)Poleward Flow (PF) / Equatorward Flow (EF)Midlatitude Westerlies (MW) / Easterlies (ME)

Exposed Low-level (XL)Tropical Depression (TD)Tropical Storm (TS)Hurricane (H)

Midget (M) Small (S)Average(A) Large (L)

Advection by Environment (ADV)Upper-level Low Evolutions: Upper-level Low Formation (ULF) Upper-level Low Dissipation (ULD)Midlatitude System Evolutions: Cyclogenesis (MCG) Cyclolysis (MCL) Anticyclogenesis (MAG) Anticyclolysis (MAL)

Beta Effect-Related: Beta-Effect Propagation (BEP) Ridge Modification by TC (RMT) Reverse Trough Formation (RTF)Cyclone Interactions: Midlatitude-Related: Direct (DCI) Response to Vertical Semi-direct (SCI) Shear (RVS) Indirect (ICI) Baroclinic Cyclone Interaction (BCI)

Standard (S) Upper-level Low (U)Poleward (P) Midlatitude (M)

72-HOUR MODEL FORECAST ERRORS ATLANTIC 2002

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

FORECAST ERROR (N MI)

OC

CU

RR

EN

CE

S NGPS

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

LARGE ERRORS29 OF 146

20%

72-HOUR MODEL FORECAST ERRORS ATLANTIC 2002

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

FORECAST ERROR (N MI)

OC

CU

RR

EN

CE

S GFDN

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

LARGE ERRORS14 OF 59

24%

72-HOUR MODEL FORECAST ERRORS ATLANTIC 2002

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

FORECAST ERROR (N MI)

OC

CU

RR

EN

CE

S UKMO

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

LARGE ERRORS15 OF 73

21%

72-HOUR MODEL FORECAST ERRORS ATLANTIC 2002

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

FORECAST ERROR (N MI)

OC

CU

RR

EN

CE

S GFS

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

LARGE ERRORS28 OF 145

19%

72-HOUR MODEL FORECAST ERRORS ATLANTIC 2002

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

FORECAST ERROR (N MI)

OC

CU

RR

EN

CE

S GFDL

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

LARGE ERRORS49 OF 152

32%

AVNOGFDNUKMO

NGPS

GFDL

E-DCIdegradingUKMO ?

ExcessiveDirect

CycloneInteraction

(E-DCI)

E-RMTdegradingAVNO ?

RMT

Verifyingposition

Value added: 48 n mi

72H FORECAST ERRORS ATLANTIC 2002

228.4

207.6

189.8 185.1179

160.4 159.2

0

50

100

150

200

250

GFDL GFDN AVNO UKMO NGPS SCON NCON

FO

RE

CA

ST

ER

RO

RS

(N

MI)

NCON/SCON

Dolly Aug 29/18 578 / 525 53 Dolly Aug 30/06 562 / 514 48

Edouard Sep 02/12 92 / 118 -26

Fay Sep 06/12 98 / 51 47 Fay Sep 07/00 132 / 150 -18

Gustav Sep 09/18 246 / 128 118

Hanna Sep 12/12 522 / 427 95

Isidore Sep 23/06 159 / 237 -78 Isidore Sep 23/18 114 / 198 -84 Isidore Sep 24/12 371 / 451 -80 Isidore Sep 24/18 329 / 510 -181

Kyle Sep 26/12 173 / 210 -37 Kyle Sep 27/18 147 / 75 72 Kyle Sep 28/00 119 / 71 48 Kyle Sep 28/06 134 / 86 48 Kyle Sep 28/18 78 / 78 0

Lili Sep 23/00 108 / 97 11 Lili Sep 23/12 216 / 189 27 Lili Sep 24/06 242 / 268 -26 Lili Sep 24/12 210 / 229 -19 Lili Sep 25/00 181 / 231 -50 Lili Sep 25/06 214 / 229 -15 Lili Sep 26/00 120 / 194 -74 Lili Sep 26/06 122 / 120 2 Lili Sep 26/12 173 / 274 -101 Lili Sep 27/00 155 / 169 -14 Lili Sep 27/12 102 / 155 -53

Rejected at least onedynamical model(SCON = NCON)and 72h forecast

verified27 times

Improved 11Degraded 15Equal 1

Average Errors (n mi):NCON: 211SCON: 222

AVNOGFDL

GFDN

UKMONGPS

E-DCIdegradingGFDN ?

ExcessiveDirect

CycloneInteraction

(E-DCI)

E-BCIdegradingGFDL ?

BCI

AVNOGFDL

GFDN

UKMONGPS

DegradedByI-BCI ?

DegradedByE-BCI ?

(AVNO) (GFDL)

Verifyingposition

ERROR MECHANISM NAME AND ACRONYM

Number of 72-h track forecasts with error > 250 n mi NGPS GFDN UKMO GFS GFDL

Direct Cyclone Interaction DCI 1-0 1-0 Semi-direct Cyclone Interaction SCI on Western TC SCI on Eastern TC

SCI SCIW SCIE

Indirect Cyclone Interaction ICI on Western TC ICI on Eastern TC

ICI ICIW ICIE

0-1 2-0

0-12 3-0

Ridge Modification by TC RMT 6-0 3-0 3-0 5-1 Reverse Trough Formation RTF 0-2 0-1 0-1 Response to Vertical Shear RVS 1-0 7-0 Baroclinic Cyclone Interaction BCI 0-2 0-3 0-5 Midlatitude System Evolutions Midlatitude Cyclogenesis Midlatitude Cyclolysis Midlatitude Anticyclogenesis Midlatitude Anticyclolysis

MSE MCG MCL MAG MAL

3-1

2-0

1-1

2-2

2-0 2-1

0-1

0-1

1-3

0-1 1-1

Tropical Cyclone Size (TCS) 0-1 Bad tracker 1 Not discernible or explainable 2 4 Fields/Tracks not available 15 3 2 10 10 Total of all poor forecasts 29 14 15 28 49 AL042002 - AL142002

Atlantic 2002

Ran DYMES191 times

63%63%12%12%25%25%

Assigned:Small Spread

120Compensating

Errors23

One errorMechanism

48

PLANS

• Complete the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific model traits knowledge bases for 2001 and 2002

• Review the error mechanism assignment rules

• Provide on-line training module by late May