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20 Agustus 2014

Berdoa & Berharap Yang Terbaik! “The inevitability of what is coming is what is important. The timing remains uncertain. It need not occur in the next week or month. Timing may still be measured in years, but the outcome is more certain today than it was five years ago. The laws of economics make it so. Any geopolitical or economic misstep could trigger the event. Without such a misstep, the charade could continue for a while. A collapse is coming. It is unavoidable and will be worse than it should have been as a result of political duplicity.” -- Monty Pelerin of Economic Noise blog

“The fellow that can only see a week ahead is always the popular fellow, for he is looking with the crowd. But the one that can see years ahead,

he has a telescope but he can’t make anybody believe that he has it.” -- Will Rogers




Nampaknya hampir tidak ada yang memperhatikan resiko belakangan ini. Kecuali Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – sering dianggap sebagai bank sentralnya para bank sentral dunia. Ketua BIS yang berbasis di Swiss tersebut kepada The Telegraph bulan lalu mengatakan bahwa sistem finansial “in many ways is more fragile” daripada saat krisis akibat bangkrutnya Lehman Brothers lalu.

Ekonomi dunia masih rentan mengalami krisis finansial seperti yang terjadi pada 2007 tersebut, bahkan kini disertai bahaya tambahan yakni rasio hutang jauh lebih tinggi dan pasar negara berkembang sudah terpengaruh, demikian BIS memberikan peringatan. Jaime Caruana mengatakan bahwa para investor pun mengabaikan resiko pengetatan moneter karena kerakusan memburu keuntungan (yield).




Dia juga menyatakan kekhawatirannya bahwa: “it is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets’ buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally” and he noted that “markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” Dengan kata lain, dia katakana bahwa perilaku pasar keuangan sudah benar-benar ‘bercerai’ dari realitas ekonomi, dan suatu saat ini akan menimbulkan koreksi besar-besaran. Untuk mengingatkan Anda saja, bahwa BIS adalah salah satu dari sedikit institusi yang berhasil memproyeksikan terjadinya krisis lalu. Dan seperti yang terjadi saat ini, hampir semua orang/pihak menganggap lembaga ini hanya sekelompok bankir Swiss yang menjual ketakutan/kekhawatiran saja. Jadi apakah sejarah akan berulang? Jeff Thomas dari Casey Research, mengatakan tidaklah sulit untuk memprediksi apa yang akan terjadi nanti: “The number of people whose eyes have been opened seems to be growing, and many of them are asking what the collapse will look like as it unfolds. What will the symptoms be? Well, the primary events are fairly predictable: they would include major collapses in the bond and stock markets and possible sudden deflation (primarily of assets), followed by dramatic inflation, if not hyperinflation (primarily of commodities), followed by a crash of several major currencies, particularly the euro and the US dollar. We know a collapse is coming… If you’re paying attention you probably have the distinct feeling that we are in the middle of it right now. And guess what? The government and military know it’s coming too, as evidenced by large-scale simulations of exactly such an event and its fallout. But the collapse of our financial system, or hyperinflation of our currency, or a meltdown in US Treasuries is only the beginning. We know some or all of these events are all but a foregone conclusion. What we don’t know is the timing of the trigger event that causes the global panic to ensue and what will happen after these primary events take hold.” Jeff Thomas juga menambahkan, meskipun kita tidak akan tahu secara pasti, “secondary events” berikut adalah hal-hal yang mungkin terjadi ketika sistem finansial mulai kacau:




“The secondary events will be less certain, but likely: increased unemployment, currency controls, protective tariffs, severe depression, etc. But, along the way, there will be numerous surprises—actions taken by governments that may be as unprecedented as they would be unlawful. Why? Because, again, such actions are the norm when a government finds itself losing its grip over the people it perceives as its minions. Here are a few:

• Travel Restrictions. This will begin with restrictions on foreign travel, including suspension/removal of passports. (This has begun in a small way in both the EU and US.) Later, travel restrictions will be extended within the boundaries of countries (highway checkpoints, etc.)

• Confiscation of wealth. The EU has instituted the confiscation of bank accounts, which can be expected to become an international form of governmental theft. This does not automatically mean that other assets, such as precious metals and real estate will also be confiscated, but it does mean that the barrier for confiscation has been eliminated. There is therefore no reason to assume that any asset is safe from any government that approves theft through bail-ins.

• Food Shortages. The food industry operates on very small profit margins and survives only as a result of quick payment of invoices. With dramatic inflation, marginal businesses (suppliers, wholesalers, and retailers) will fall by the wayside. The percentage of failing businesses will be dependent upon the duration and severity of the inflationary trend.

• Squatters Rebellions. A dramatic increase in the number of home and business foreclosures will result in homelessness for anyone whose debt exceeds his ability to pay—even those who presently appear to be well-off. As numbers rise significantly, a new homeless class will be created amongst the former middle class. As they become more numerous, large scale ownership of property may give way to large scale “possession” of property.

• Riots. These will likely happen spontaneously due to the above conditions, but if not, governments will create them to justify their desire for greater control of the masses.

• Martial Law. The US has already prepared for this, with the passing of the 2012 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which many interpret as declaring the US to be a “battlefield.” The NDAA allows the suspension of habeas corpus, indefinite detention, and the assumption that any resident may be considered an enemy combatant. Similar legislation may be expected in other countries that perceive martial law as a solution to civil unrest.




The above list is purposely brief—a sampling of eventualities that, should they occur, will almost definitely come unannounced. As the decline unfolds, they will surely happen with greater frequency.” What Do the Charts Say? Pengamat pasar dan penulis produktif Charles Hugh Smith dari OfTwoMinds blog menyebut bahwa kenaikan satu arah bursa saham saat ini sebagai lahirnya complacency (rasa puas) dari keyakinan bahwa kita sedang berada dalam kondisi “New Normal.” Dalam kondisi tersebut, para investor memiliki keyakinan penuh bahwa pemerintah dan bank sentral akan menemukan formula yang tepat untuk mendorong kenaikan harga aset dengan cepat dalam rangka memuaskan investor tanpa menciptakan inflasi. Karena ‘dewa-dewa kesempurnaan’ tersebut terus mengawasi dan menjaga agar saham tidak jatuh, maka hanya ada tindakan logis di kepala kita: BUY! Tentunya kondisi New Normal ini tidak beda dengan kalimat yang mengatakan, “This time it’s different.” Namun Charles dalam laporannya berikut mengatakan bahwa ‘this time is not different’, mari simak alasannya dan sekaligus lihat juga sejumlah indikator favoritnya memberikan informasi bahwa reversal bursa saham sepertinya sudah dekat:

The Approaching Inevitable Market Reversal “Though we’re constantly reassured by financial pundits and the Federal Reserve that the stock market is not a bubble and that valuations are fair, there is substantial evidence that suggests the contrary. The market is dangerously stretched in terms of valuation and sentiment, and it does not accurately reflect fundamentals such as earnings and sales growth. Why do we care? If we own no stocks in a retirement or other account, we don’t care; it’s mere background noise. But if we’re exposed to the gyrations of the stock market in any way, we should care, because those who sell near the top before the market drops preserve not just their initial capital, but their winnings from the over five-year bull market. Those who fail to sell risk losing not just their gains, but quite possibly a material chunk of their initial capital. Another reason to care is that those who correctly bet on a market reversal profit handsomely, just as those who buy at the bottom of a decline profit handsomely.




Let’s start with the most fundamental truth: nobody knows the future. If any technique of prognostication worked every time, anyone with three 100% accurate forecasts in a row could turn $5,000 into $100,000 in three trades using options (or futures contracts). A decent rise or drop will triple an option bought before the move:

$5K → $15K

$15K → $45K

$45K → $135,000 That few manage the apparently simple task of making three accurate predictions in a row (and being confident enough in the technique to leave all the chips on the table) is powerful evidence that no such technique works consistently enough to last even three trades. That said, the benefits from being correct even once are powerful enough to make it worthwhile to pursue increasing the odds in our favor—even if the odds will never be 100% in our favor. New Normal: Cycles and TA Banished, or Hubris? There are three basic tools of prognostication: cycles, technical analysis, and fundamental analysis. While each subject is broad, we can boil them down:

1. Cycles do not presume to predict the causes of trend reversals; they only reflect that such reversals often follow patterns over time. One example is the business cycle, which traces the expansion of credit and risky investments made with borrowed money and the subsequent contraction in credit as bad bets are written off. There are many cycles of varying durations: for example, lunar; solar; and Kondratieff cycles. 2. Technical analysis seeks indicators that presage trend reversals. For example, declining volume and the narrowing of breadth (i.e., a handful of stocks is leading the index higher rather than broad-based participation in the rally) typically presage a breakdown of the rally. 3. Fundamental analysis holds that the stock market eventually realigns with the foundations of corporate valuations: earnings, sales, and prospects for future profit expansion or contraction.

In the past six years of unprecedented central bank intervention, the belief that we’re in a “New Normal” that’s immune to downturns has taken hold—mostly because every downturn has been reversed by some additional central bank monetary intervention.




If the New Normal is truly permanent, then cycles and technical/fundamental analysis have been mooted: they no longer work because the central banks can push stocks higher essentially forever. Another school of thought holds that central bank intervention so distorts markets that central bankers’ efforts to eliminate downtrends introduce the seeds of instability which eventually disrupt the market. Believers in the New Normal hold that the Fed and other central banks have an unlimited ability to print money and buy assets, such that they can buy up the majority of markets to keep valuations elevated. I see such linear thinking as dangerously simplistic in a non-linear world, and I make the case that the Fed is far more constrained by the bond and currency markets than the New Normal faithful believe. We might also question the basic premise of the New Normal crowd, which is that the recent past is an accurate guide to the future. To quote songwriter Jackson Browne: “Don’t think it won’t happen just because it hasn’t happened yet.” Though the New Normal faithful see cycles as banished by the godlike powers of central banks, I see a pattern in the New Normal:

Central bank intervention seems to have generated a new cycle: five years of a roaring bull market that reaches bubble heights and then crashes over the following two years. Is there some reason to believe stocks can loft ever higher, other than central bank intervention?




The one fundamental metric that matters is profits. Let’s look at corporate profits and the S&P 500 (SPX):

It appears the stock market is responding to central bank intervention to the degree that the interventions have enabled corporate profits to soar. How has intervention boosted profits? One easy way is that by lowering the cost of credit to near zero, corporations have booked the savings in interest payments as profits. The question of the New Normal boils down to: Can corporate profits continue soaring? Or perhaps more to the point: Can central bank intervention keep pushing profits higher? Since interest rates are already near 0%, the answer seems to be that the fruits of QE and ZIRP have already been picked, and there is little more profit to be gained from these policies. There are a number of reasons to doubt that this steep ascent is sustainable: One is that a rise in the US dollar would crimp profits earned in other currencies. Another is that the global economy is weakening. Yet another is that household earnings remain stagnant.




This chart shows corporate profits have indeed rolled over in the first quarter of 2014:

And there are a number of other reasons to suspect the New Normal market is stretched. For example, bearish sentiment is low, and bullish sentiment is at multiyear highs:




Other conventional metrics of market activity such as corporate buybacks, mergers and acquisitions, issuance of junk bonds, margin debt, etc. are also at extremes. A continuance of the New Normal requires these extremes to become even more extreme, with no blowback (unintended consequences) or snapback. The emergence of inflation is also seen by some analysts as a precursor to a market correction. Two basic drivers of inflation—rising wages and expanding bank credit—are making a comeback:




And here’s the simplest measure of inflation: prices.




The last extreme to consider is volatility, which has slipped to multiyear lows on complacency born of a belief that central banks can enforce the New Normal of ever-rising markets at will.

(via Zero Hedge) The Big Question: When??? Is the New Normal enforceable even as markets reach extremes? Or is the faith in the central banks’ power to bend markets to their will just the latest manifestation of hubris? No one knows at the moment. But as I’ve shown, there are numerous persuasive reasons to be skeptical of the New Normal and the utmost faith it places in the notion that markets are in a permanent state of low volatility and rising profits… and therefore can only loft higher.”




Selanjutnya adalah Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com yang memberikan peringatan pekan lalu bahwa posisi “put Soros” naik ke rekornya, dan mulai mempertanyakan bahwa apakah investor terkenal tersebut mulai mengantisipasi kejatuhan pasar: “Back in February we observed, with some surprise, when Soros Fund Management, the investment vehicle of the famous Hungarian billionaire investor revealed in its Q4 13F that the firm had taken its bearish S&P 500 ETF - aka SPY - put exposure to a then record $1.3 billion notional, prompting us and many others to ask if Soros was preparing for a market crash. Fast forward to today when following the latest 13F disclosure from the same fund, we note, with double the surprise that a quarter after the same ETF put was lowered to "only" $299 million notional, Soros has once again increased his total SPY Put to a new record high of $2.2 billion, or nearly double the previous all time high, and a whopping 17% of his total AUM.




Some observations, which we presented previously: the "Soros put" is a legacy hedge position that the 84-year old has been rolling over every quarter since 2010. Since this was an increase of 638% Q/Q this has some people concerned that the author of 'reflexivity' and the founder of "open societies" may be anticipating some major market downside. Furthermore, remember that what was disclosed yesterday is a snapshot of Soros' holdings as of 45 days ago. What he may or may not have done with his hedge since then is largely unknown, and since there are no investor letters, there is no way of knowing even on a leaked basis how the billionaire has since positioned for the market. Then again, considering that not only Yellen, who has warned about bubble pockets in stocks, but the BIS, Icahn and numerous other fund managers, now openly warn that the entire market has entered bubble territory, perhaps this is a case where the simplest explanation is also the right one...” Investment advice Adam Taggart dari Peak Prosperity menyatakan bahwa narasi pemulihan dari Wall Street dan media mainstream tidak masuk akal. Alasannya ada di kutipan berikut, yang di dalamnya juga menjelaskan apa yang dapat dilakukan untuk melindungi atau bahkan meningkatkan kesejahteraan untuk hidup lebih baik: Let’s Stop Fooling Ourselves “The American experience of rising standards of living and general prosperity have always rested upon a deep and healthy middle class. That middle class, by most any available economic or financial measure, is steadily losing ground as a direct consequence of Fed and DC policies. By forcing the stock market higher, the Fed has simply made a small minority of the country better off. By funneling endless amounts of free money to the biggest banks, the Fed has enriched the banking system. The Fed truly seems to believe that this is the right course of action: that a stable and profitable banking system coupled to rising stock prices will somehow generate the necessary confidence within the middle class required for them to once again go on a borrowing binge.




Because that's what the system has devolved into, for better or worse: our economy is founded on credit and borrowing, not earnings and savings. The problem is, outside of the manufactured statistics of government and the manufactured stock prices of the Fed, the median family has far less earning power this year than last. And it knows in its heart of hearts that DC will tax more and return less as time goes on, and that job security no longer exists as corporations ruthlessly pursue bottom line results. Quite rationally, many families are realizing that's not an appropriate environment for taking on more debt. More profoundly, the big picture numbers just don't add up. A nation that's collectively in hock to the tune of 373% of GDP – not including entitlement liabilities which launch that figure to more than 1000% – needs to seriously face the fact that it cannot make good on its current promises, let alone entertain making them larger. And yet here we are, with every outlet of the current power structure vigorously promoting that "all is well" while minimizing or completely ignoring those who would seek to open a dialog about the wisdom, or lack thereof, of ramming asset prices higher and supporting historically ruinous levels of deficit spending by printing money out of thin air. Redefining Prosperity As dire as the trends look, there is much that can be done to ameliorate their impact – and enter the future with grace and optimism – if as a society we have the courage to do it. There's no doubt that simply continuing along the status quo is a vote for digging ourselves deeper as the constraints of the future arrive. Behavior change is necessary in order to improve our chances. At the core of the needed change is redefining prosperity. In modern society, it has largely come to be defined by material possessions, usually assuming that the more (and the more expensive), the better. In the future, we'd do much better to define it by:

• our health (both physical and emotional) • our purpose • our ability to meet our needs sustainably • our relationships • our level of happiness

In sum, all things that were once valued much higher in our culture.




It's important to realize that when the cheap energy and associated cheap-credit era arrived, the work of all those energy and liquidity "slaves" allowed us to disassociate ourselves from centuries-old customs and live a much more isolated, materialistic life. While freeing in ways, perhaps, we are beginning to realize that those values and norms evolved for a reason. We'll be on a journey of rediscovering their worth as we start trending back towards more historic baselines. The good news is the list of prudent behavior to adopt is long, and it's growing as we (here at PeakProsperity.com and related sites) work together to identify those with the most promise:

• Live below your means – Rather than pride yourself on what you purchase, pride yourself on what you don't. That doesn't mean you must live miserly or live in poverty. Learn the peace of mind that comes from knowing you can afford the things you do buy, and the confidence that comes from growing your savings. (Frugality is the #1 quality that all self-made millionaires share)

• Buy quality and maintain it – When you do purchase something, buy for utility and longevity. "Cry once" is a good motto: in other words, pay a premium if necessary to get what will meet your needs best over the longest time horizon (versus "crying often" and spending more $$ over the long run because you bought an inferior product that needed chronic repairs or replacement). Take good care of what you do buy to ensure it will be there as you need it when you need it.

• Take control of your income – Avoid being a wage slave for your entire life. There are innumerable reasons why your situation with your employer can change faster and more drastically than you think. Cultivate an income you "own", either full-time or on the side, so that you aren't left 100% vulnerable to a sudden change in employment.

• Cultivate resiliency – Invest in your skills, your homestead, your health, and your community. These will all serve you well as economic growth slows further due to reasons outlined in the Crash Course – and for the skeptics, these are solid investments no matter which way the economy turns. For those new to resiliency, our What Should I Do? Guide is a useful resource to start with.

• Simplify – Learn that less is more. Fewer things to deal with frees you up to focus more on those that matter most. In addition to being a good philosophy to live by, it also reduces the number of things to pay for and the number of things to be taxed on. Both of which leave more money in your pocket.




• Apprentice/mentor – Learn how to do important tasks yourself instead of becoming dependent on paying someone. If you can trade labor for learning, you may be able to avoid some or all of the excessive time and $ costs of academia. If you have expertise, pass it on to others around you. In this way, we create resiliency at the community level, improving the odds that an effective local support network is in place if ever needed.

• Shop & invest locally – Keep capital inside your community to strengthen it and enable re-investment. So much is currently sent to multinational corporations and Wall Street banks – never to return – that even a small percentage redirection will make a big impact at the local level.

• Prefer hard assets to paper ones – In a world of runaway central bank money printing, paper currencies (like the U.S. dollar) are not a smart option for storing wealth. Nor are dangerously inflated paper securities like stocks and bonds. If possible, purchase physical assets you can tangibly hold and store, like precious metals, and for the rest of your investments, find a financial advisor who has a strategy that takes hard assets and depleting resources into account.

• Consider multi-generational living – The economics of the future may force this on us, and that may not be a bad thing. But it's better to adopt this lifestyle by your own choice, on your own terms, if possible. We have moved so far away from this model of living, at great cost – both money-wise and socially. Knowledge transfer, chore sharing, child/elder care, emotional support, cost reduction, pooled purchasing power – there are many advantages to co-habitating with close family or friends.

• Get and stay fit – The benefits of good health on quality of life, longevity, and net worth are just too numerous to ignore. The modern "sick care" industry over-focuses on treating what breaks. Instead, focus on achieving and maintaining wellness.

• Use your productive output as an alternative currency – Much can be acquired without $, in trade for your support or skills. Both goods and services. Learn to ask: What can I trade? before asking How much does it cost? You'll save money while at the same time increasing your perceived value to those around you.

• Pursue happiness – Learn that pleasure comes from relationships, from having purpose, from creation, and having new experiences. All of these can be enjoyed in a multitude of ways, and few require spending lots of money. If you manage to simplify your life (see above) and find pleasure in doing so, you'll be much more likely to enjoy the future, whatever it brings.




• Require awareness and accountability for the future – Hold your elected officials to the same standards you hold yourself. Vote accordingly. Participate in the democratic process. It may not work as well or as fast as we want, but boycotting will only guarantee us disappointment. In a nutshell, hope for the best but don't plan on miracles.

• Trust yourself – Always rely on your own good sense and intuition about what makes sense for you and your family in your unique situation. Do consult with those who have insight and experience to share that will help you make the most informed choices you possibly can, but remember that your present and future are your own responsibility. Do not ever fully relinquish this power to anyone else – not the government, not a family member, not a professional adviser, not even "the experts." Always, always trust yourself first and foremost.

There are other prudent behaviors to add to this list, but this is a pretty good start. And a good start is what we need, as a country and a global community: to stop denying the reality around us and start getting on with how we want to deal with it.” Conclusion Faktanya masih sama bahwa tidak ada orang yang bisa memprediksi masa depan dengan tepat. Hal terbaik yang dapat dan seharusnya dilakukan adalah bersiaplah. Jangan lupa faktor kunci yang selalu membuat para investor yang baik tetap bertahan – SAFETY. Selalu menomor-satukan investasi dengan resiko lebih rendah, dan jika ingin mengambil investasi beresiko tinggi pakailah dengan dana yang Anda siap untuk kehilangannya. Sukses selalu dan semoga Tuhan memberkati Anda sekeluarga!




Di akhir laporan yang suram ini, seperti biasa agar Anda tetap ceria, berikut saya lampirkan 2 gambar kartun lucu:




Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung hari ini!

Regards,

Nico Omer Jonckheere VP Research and Analysis PT. Valbury Asia Futures

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