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Solar PV: Latest Developments from an Energy Forum in Switzerland Presentation to: ContractorsBreakfast Series March 16, 2016 Doug MacLean

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Solar PV:

Latest Developments from an Energy Forum in Switzerland

Presentation to:

Contractors’ Breakfast Series

March 16, 2016

Doug MacLean

1.Next 25 2.Check shuffled slides & add one line commentary where missing. 3.Add “Background” heading to each slide 4.Add kW Capacity in Yukon slide 27

5.Get production profile for bifacial solar 6.Chk “what we can do” 55-57 and “Summary” 79-80 7.Add “death Spiral”ReadCTI Coal Report 8.order/dups and notes text. 9.Put conf slides & pres on G: drive

Ben Power in Slide 20, 22 Ben: Cost/W?

Preamble

Source: http://www.swissvistas.com/image-files/switzerland-maps.jpg

Energy Forum

1. Keynote/Background

2. Photovoltaic (PV) Developments

3. Beyond PV (Adaptive Building Skins, ETS, PVT,

Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps)

4. PV in the North

5. PV Market Changes

6. PV Policy Considerations

7. Summary

8. What You Can Do Now

Put papers on G drive and change last sentence

1. Keynote/Background

"Electric power is everywhere present in

unlimited quantities and can drive the

world's machinery without the need of coal,

oil, gas, or any other of the common fuels.”

- Nikola Tesla

(1856 – 1943)

Source: http://freeenergynews.com/Directory/Quotes/

1. Keynote/Background

Drivers for the Conference

• European Directive 2010/31/EU

(Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD))

• Horizon 2020 Program

• National and Local Programs

1. Keynote/Background

Drivers for the Conference (continued)

• Renewables Directive 2009/28EC 20% Renewable Energy by 2020

– National Renewable Energy Action Plans

(NREAP)

PV Cell Efficiencies Source: NREL

Source: Proceedings, A3-2: Photovoltaics in architecture: separating facts from fiction Dieter Moor, ertex solartechnik, Austria, p. 135.

2. PV Developments -- Efficiency

Source: http://blog.thingswedontknow.com/2015/09/the-inspirational-butterfly.html

2. PV Developments -- Efficiency

Source: http://www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/amazing-chart-shows-again-why-solar-power-will-take-over-world.html.

2. PV Developments -- Cost

2. PV Developments -- Cost

Sources: http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/business/oil-price-rise-alternative-energy-1.3423661

Fill in. 3

Falling costs & rising efficiency boost solar

cells sales, even as fossil fuel prices fall

2. PV Developments – BIPV

PV panels can

cover the sides

and roof of

buildings

Source: Proceedings Slides, p. A158.

Source: Proceedings Slides, p. A164.

2. PV Developments -- BIPV

Using Building Integrated Photo-voltaics (BIPV) on over 75% of the façade resulted in minimized energy needs and increased comfort.

Source: Proceedings, A1-1: Benefits of translucent building envelope made of DSC-integrated glassblocks Luisa Pastore, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Italy, pp. 18-20.

2. PV Developments -- BIPV

Source: Proceedings, A5-3: Strategies to increase the deployment of PV in façades Christian Renken, CR Energie Sarl, Collombey, Switzerland

“Already today, [in Europe], the investment of PV in façades is a profitable alternative to non-productive conventional façades.” – Swiss study

Source: Proceedings, p. 1439

Source: Proceedings, p. 212

2. PV Developments -- Supply

The monthly yield of BIPV is getting more balanced…

Source: Proceedings Slides, p. A161 (A3-2: Building integrated PV applications, Dominik Müller, Solvatec AG, Switzerland).

2. PV Developments -- BIPV

Sources: Proceedings, A4-4: Transformation of a historical coal bunker into a solar power station using multi-colored BIPV, Kerstin Müller, baubüro in situ ag, Basel, Switzerland, Proceedings Slides: p. A156.

Source: Proceedings Slides A170

Source: Proceedings Slides, p. 188

Source: Proceedings Slides, p. 189

Source: Proceedings Slides, p. A166

2. PV Developments -- BIPV

2. PV Developments -- BIPV

Source: Proceedings Slides, p. A305.

2. PV Developments -- BIPV

Source: Proceedings, A3-2: Photovoltaics in architecture: separating facts from fiction Dieter Moor, ertex solartechnik, Austria, p. 135 – 142.

Ben

2. PV Developments – Bifacial PV

The monthly yield of solar cells can be raised by using bifacial PV cells …

Source: http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/hitachi_bifacial.jpg

Ben Power

2. PV Developments -- Shading

Source: Proceedings, A4-1: A size-flexible, shade robust photovoltaic system for integration in roofs and façades, Josco Kester, ECN Solar Energy, Netherlands, p. 154.

Source: Proceedings Slides, p. 217.

2. PV Developments – Cost

Sources: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/innovation-pre-fab-solar-farms-could-slash-cost-of-big-solar-98806

A prototype prefab 6 kW solar farm installed

… in four (4) minutes, reducing cost.

Ben

3. Beyond PV -- Adaptive Building Skins

Sources: E2-1: Energy Frames - A new technology for intelligent glazed façades Frederik V. Winther, Rambøll, Copenhagen, Denmark

E3-2: Monitoring energy and comfort performance of transparent adaptive façades L. Bianco, Valerio Verso, Valentina Serra, Politecnico di Torino, Italy

3. Beyond PV – ETS

In this simulation, building inhabitants consciously shift high loads to night time (e.g., using ETS or batteries) or to peak availability periods thus improving operation and reducing cost.

Source: F4-2: Simulation of captive use for building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) Samuel Summer Matter, Head Engineering Department, BE Netz AG, Switzerland

3. Beyond PV -- PVT

Combined PV and Solar Thermal (PVT) panels are showing significant promise over using the technologies separately.

Source: Proceedings, A1-2: Glazed photovoltaic-thermal component for building envelope structure Tomas Matuska, Czech Technical University, Prague, Czech Republic, p. 30.

Whitehorse has more yearly PV potential (960 kWh/kW) than Berlin, Germany (848 kWh/kW) where PV panels are widely used…

Sources: http://pv.nrcan.gc.ca/index.php?m=r and personal communication from Shane Wolffe

http://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/?s=Snow+no+more

4. PV in the North

4. PV in the North

Lower ambient temperatures can improve winter energy production -- 25% at -25˚C; better at -40˚C .

Sources: http://www.greenenergyfutures.ca/episode/solar-myths, para. 8. http://www.thegreenage.co.uk/article/the-impact-of-temperature-on-solar-panels/ http://science.opposingviews.com/temperature-affect-solar-panels-20687.html http://www.noyodecia.com/wind-power-system-basics-home-power-magazine.html (graph)

Because of work done here, we know vertical panel installation can improve winter electricity production … by about 10 to 20% compared to a 45 – 55˚ tilt.

.

Source: Unpublished data for Yukon, S. Andre.

4. PV in the North

4. PV in the North

This is confirmed by some initial data from solar panels in Tagish, Yukon.

Source: Personal Communication, Anne Middler, Feb. 17, 2016. http://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/?s=Snow+no+more

We now know that clearing snow can improve winter production slightly, particularly for panels installed at a low angle. Panels installed vertically rarely, if ever, require snow removal.

Source: http://www.nait.ca/docs/NAIT_Reference_Array_Report_March_31_2015.pdf, page 5.

4. PV in the North

4. PV in the North

The difference in albedo from dry concrete or asphalt (~0.2) to fresh snow on the ground (~0.8) can boost PV output by 5-10%

Source: https://pvpmc.sandia.gov/modeling-steps/1-weather-design-inputs/plane-of-array-poa-irradiance/calculating-poa-irradiance/poa-ground-reflected/albedo/

We know that vertical rails can expedite snow load shedding to improve winter production.

Source:

http://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2016/01/mounting-solar-panels-to-vertical-rails-can-encourage-snow-shedding-says-whitepaper/.

http://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/?s=Snow+no+more

4. PV in the North

Source: Proceedings, p. 208.

Production for Whitehorse, and vertical PVs vs a 50˚ tilt angle: North: 29% East 59% West 55% South: 81%

Production vs Tilt and Orientation Whitehorse, Yukon (60.7 ˚ N)

Production vs Tilt and Orientation Aqaba, Jordan (29.5 ˚ N)

Production vs Tilt and Orientation Barcelona, Spain (41.3˚ N)

Source: Shane Andre, personal communication

4. PV in the North

5. PV Market Changes

Source: Proceedings Slides, PVPS Task 15 Acceleration of BIPV, p. A257. See also: http://cleantechnica.com/2016/02/10/global-solar-pv-pipeline-now-exceeds-200-gw-ihs/

Source: At left: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_onshore_wind_farms At right: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_by_country

5. PV Market Changes

5. PV Market Changes

Source: http://www.techinsider.io/map-shows-solar-panels-to-power-the-earth-2015-9

Add roof area needed

6. PV Market Changes

There is growing environmental pressure to leave fossil fuels, such as coal, in the ground

Source: http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/unburnable-carbon-why-we-need-to-leave-fossil-fuels-in-the-ground

Fill in. 4 to 7

5. PV Market Changes

China reports:

Coal now not indispensible

for power generation. Source: http://snip.ly/7m761#http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/base-load-power-a-myth-used-to-defend-the-fossil-fuel-industry-96007, March 2, 2016 See also: http://www.raponline.org/press-release/new-rap-analysis-shows-fresh-solutions-to-renewable-energy-duck?utm_source=ZohoCampaigns&utm_campaign=US+RAPPORT+March+2016_2016-03-02&utm_medium=email

Fill in. 2

5. PV Market Changes

The Tangshanpeng Wind Farm in northern China

China’s CO2 emissions fell in 2015 due to

a decline in coal, boost in renewables

Source: http://e360.yale.edu/

Fill in. 2

5. PV Market Changes

Queensland energy minister Mark Bailey

Australia: Queensland Energy Minister says rooftop solar will soon be the biggest source of electricity in the state.

Source: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/qld-energy-minister-says-rooftop-solar-will-soon-be-biggest-generator-45057, February 19, 2016.

Fill in. 2

5. PV Market Changes

The world is now adding more capacity for

renewable power each year than coal, natural

gas, and oil combined Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-14/fossil-fuels-just-lost-the-race-against-renewables

Fill in. 2

5. PV Market Changes

Source: http://www.utilitydive.com/news/wind-and-solar-provided-all-new-us-electric-capacity-in-january/415195/

Fill in. 3

Wind and solar provided all new U.S.

electric capacity in January, 2016.

5. PV Market Changes

Get article1.

In the U.S., there are twice as many

solar workers as coal miners

Source: http://fortune.com/2015/01/16/solar-jobs-report-2014/

5. PV Market Changes

Sources: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/02/01/3743082/renewables-revolution/ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-12/germany-proves-life-with-less-fossil-fuel-getting-easier

Fill in. 3

Grid Reliability Is Increasing with Renewables

5. PV Market Changes

Older nuclear power plants are also being phased out and replaced with renewable energy

Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France

5. PV Market Changes

Sources: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/10/denmark-wind-windfarm-power-exceed-electricity-demand

Fill in. 3

Wind power generated 140% of

Denmark's electricity daily demand on

at least one occasion.

5. PV Market Changes

In Germany, renewable energy currently is 27 percent of gross electricity consumption

Source: http://thebulletin.org/can-germanys-renewable-energy-revolution-be-replicated-united-states9169

Fill in

5. PV Market Changes

Sources: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/03/uruguay-makes-dramatic-shift-to-nearly-95-clean-energy?CMP=share_btn_fb

Renewables now provide over 94% of

Uruguay’s electricity

5. PV Market Changes

Sources: https://www.good.is/articles/2015-the-year-costa-rica-derived-99-percent-of-its-electricity-from-renewable-energy?utm_source=thedailygood&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailygood http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/costa-rica-renewable-energy-climate_us_56798c79e4b014efe0d6f524

… and 99% of Costa Rica’s electricity.

5. PV Market Changes

Sources: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/29/worlds-biggest-floating-solar-farm-power-up-outside-london

Fill in. 3

World's biggest floating solar farm

powers up outside London

Source: http://www.gizmag.com/fosen-vind-largest-wind-power-project-europe/42059/

5. PV Market Changes

Norway to build Europe's largest onshore wind power project

5. PV Market Changes

Sources: https://www.facebook.com/guy.dauncey/posts/10153337076346516, February 29, 2016. http://www.entrepreneur.com/slideshow/271820, March 5, 2016. http://constructionreviewonline.com/2016/02/first-solar-powered-airport-south-africa-opens/ , February 29, 2016.

The first solar powered airport

in South Africa has opened

5. PV Market Changes

Source: http://ecowatch.com/2014/02/14/worlds-largest-solar-thermal-plant-opens-for-business/ http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=121544&p=irol-newsArticleNRG&ID=1899656 http://ecowatch.com/2014/12/04/rooftop-solar-outshine-solar-farms/

Solar Thermal Plant opened near Ivanpah in the Mojave Desert Dec. 31, 2013

Capacity: 392 MW

5. PV Market Changes

Source: http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/08/africa/ouarzazate-morocco-solar-plant/

Fill in. 4 to 7

World’s Largest Concentrated Solar Thermal Plant (CSP) opened in Morocco

Capacity: 160 MW 500 MW when all phases complete

5. PV Market Changes

Solar panels and installation are already being offered for free in New Zealand

Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/67650722/Free-panels-place-solar-power-within-reach-for-kiwis

Fill in. 4 to 7

5. PV Market Changes

Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/15/california-clean-energy_n_7578810.html

Fill in. 3

DirecTV has built a solar farm at one of its California offices. Its television technicians now offer solar energy packages when visiting customers' homes

California invests in Clean Energy

5. PV Market Changes

Sources: http://www.iflscience.com/environment/california-set-give-solar-panels-low-income-families, May 27, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/groups/657584194344617?view=permalink&id=669493639820339, January 27, 2016 http://www.gridalternatives.org/clients

Fill in. 3

California Giving Free Solar Panels

to Low-Income Families

5. PV Market Changes

Sources: https://ilsr.org/small-ohio-town-to-feature-large-distributed-solar-and-storage/, February 22, 2016

Ohio town has installed 3 MW

of solar cells and battery storage.

5. PV Market Changes

There is now a 2 MW solar farm in Alberta

Sources: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10207675389015562&set=gm.995001933880372&type=3&theater

5. PV Market Changes

Colville Lake, NWT, now has solar panels and batteries to allow the community to run entirely on the sun’s energy in the summer.

Sources: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/02/21/the-nwt-village-set-to-run-entirely-on-the-sun-

this-summer.html/

5. PV Market Changes

Solar panels on the research centre and visitor centre in Old Crow are part of the community's plan to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels.

Sources: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/02/21/the-nwt-village-set-to-run-entirely-on-the-sun-

this-summer.html/ http://yukon-news.com/news/old-crow-pushes-for-renewable-power/ http://kza.yk.ca/projects/

5. PV Market Changes

Source: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/this-battery-storage-revolution-could-happen-quicker-than-we-thought-70574

Fill in 1.

Elon Musk has sold $1 billion of battery storage devices, even before he had a product, or built a factory.

5. PV Market Changes

Source: http://www.takepart.com/article/2014/06/17/now-elon-musk-building-worlds-solar-panel-factory

Get photo of solar factory 1.

Now Elon Musk is building the

world’s biggest solar panel factory

6. PV Policy Considerations

Source: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/why-evs-will-make-solar-viable-without-subsidies-91738

Fill in. 3

In some cases, EVs are now on parity with conventional cars in terms of owner cost.

5. PV Market Changes

Electric Vehicle Innovation is increasing …

Source: http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/02/23/news/part-bike-part-car-velometro-take-cities-storm, Feb. 23, 2016.

5. PV Market Changes

… with applications in buses proving positive …

Sources: http://cleantechnica.com/2016/02/22/electric-buses-efficient-as-he-nrel-finds/, Feb. 22, 2016.

http://evobsession.com/nrel-proterra-ev-buses-possess-average-fuel-economy-roughly-4-times-higher-than-that-of-cng-baseline-buses/

5. PV Market Changes

Large scale battery storage use is increasing Sources: http://www.utilitydive.com/news/why-battery-storage-is-just-about-ready-to-take-off/407096/ Photo: AES Energy Storage, Dayton, Ohio (40 MW) http://www.rtoinsider.com/miso-energy-storage-tariff-20988/ http://aesenergystorage.com/2013/09/30/aes-reaches-more-than-100-mw-of-grid-scale-storage-in-the-u-s-with-40-mw-resource-in-ohio/

AES 100 MW Energy Storage, 40 MW Resource, Dayton Ohio

5. PV Market Changes

Source: http://cleantechnica.com/2016/02/18/australian-energy-storage-market-rise-ihs/, Feb. 18, 2016. See also: http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/28/uk-will-add-1-gigawatt-of-energy-storage-by-2020-ihs-predicts/

Fill in. 3

Residential, Commercial and Grid-scale energy storage sales are booming …

5. PV Market Changes

PV is becoming popular in Alberta, in spite of its status as Canada’s largest oil-producing province.

Source: https://www.facebook.com/groups/albertamicrogen/permalink/668047143298322/

Fill in. 4 to 8 + ck others

Micro-Generation in Alberta

Public Group

5. PV Market Changes

This Alberta home PV system has a capacity of 43 kW and will be expanded to 50 kW.

Source: https://www.facebook.com/groups/albertamicrogen/?fref=nf/

Fill in. 4 to 8 + ck others

Micro-Generation in Alberta

Public Group

5. PV Market Changes

PV systems are being installed in Yukon.

Source: https://www.facebook.com/groups/solarenergyintheyukon/permalink/841340049322251/, March 7, 2016 – Left Photo Personal communication from John Maissan – Right Photo.

kW Capacity in Yukon

Micro-Generation in Alberta

Public Group

5. PV Market Changes

Previous work showed that ETS is an economic option in Yukon that could complement PV.

5. PV Market Changes

Source: http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/enphase-is-turning-its-microinverters-into-grid-optimization-agents?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=gtmsocial, Feb. 10, 2016.

Fill in. 3

PV microinverters (Smart Inverters) are proving to be good grid-optimization agents

5. PV Market Changes

Homes are beginning to be pre-wired for solar power, solar batteries, and electric car chargers Added benefit: emergency backup power

Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/home-property/77053905/new-homes-prewired-for-solar-power-batteries-and-electric-car-charging

Fill in. 4 to 8 + ck others

5. PV Market Changes

Source: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/why-evs-will-make-solar-viable-without-subsidies-91738

Fill in. 3

Solar + Electric Vehicle + Stationary Battery = Free Electricity Possible after 8 years

6. PV Policy Considerations

Integrating PV on electrical grids has sometimes created a stormy situation … in which lies an opportunity … Sources:

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/can-the-utility-industry-survive-the-energy-transition

https://ilsr.org/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2016/03/Report-Mighty-Microgrids-PDF-3_3_16.pdf

6. PV Policy Considerations

Source: http://m.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/new-report-finds-net-metering-under-attack-across-the-united-states_100023348/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter, February 23, 2016. http://policyintegrity.org/publications/detail/managing-future-electricity-grid, Feb. 19, 2016

Fill in. 3

Net metering under review across the United States

6. PV Policy Considerations

Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics, March 8, 2016

Fill in. 3

Grid parity is improving.

6. PV Policy Considerations

Sources: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-17/what-just-happened-to-solar-and-wind-is-a-really-big-deal

Fill in. 3

as US Tax Credits for Renewables Extended

6. PV Policy Considerations

Australia says there are no current concerns about the growing market penetration of renewable energy on its grid …

Source: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/sa-network-says-no-issues-with-renewables-as-it-looks-to-wind-solar-micro-grids-70844

Fill in. 4 to 7

6. PV Policy Considerations

… and smooth sailing is expected to return

Source: http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/can-the-utility-industry-survive-the-energy-transition

6. PV Policy Considerations

Finally, remember what Justin Hall-Tipping, CEO of Nanoholdings said about electricity transmission to neighbouring houses becoming free?

Source: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NWXL5_NQ31Y/T5VWg_AlC4I/AAAAAAAAAyw/EZhmTeTsDZI/s1600/JustinHall-Tipping.jpg

6. PV Policy Considerations

It happened. 2 weeks ago.

Source: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2079334-blockchain-based-microgrid-gives-power-to-consumers-in-new-york/?utm_source=NSNS&utm_medium=SOC&utm_campaign=hoot&cmpid=SOC, March 2, 2016

7. General Summary

What has changed:

the world is taking climate change

seriously,

there’s been a sea change in Chinese

energy behaviour,

clean energy is taking hold in developing

countries, and

the price of solar and wind power is

falling.

Source: http://grist.org/climate-energy/4-surprising-reasons-why-clean-energy-is-gaining-

on-fossil-fuels/

7. General Summary

The EU directive (2010/31/EU) requiring

“nearly zero energy” (nZEB) in new

buildings by 2020 (2018 for new public

buildings) is making a difference.

Significant EU & private research funding

is accelerating energy-related advances.

7. General Summary (concluded)

Experience around the world is showing

that investments in renewables like solar is

beginning to pay big dividends.

The EU’s approach to programs, incentives

and regulations is resulting in reduced

energy use, and more use of renewable

energy in all new buildings.

Ben Power

8. What You Can Do Now

Consider measures that can lower your

energy use like LED lighting, insulation

retrofits, better windows, etc. ….

Consider installing a solar system at your

home or business.

Consider other complementary technologies

like ETS, electric battery storage, an electric

vehicle, solar thermal, wind power, etc.

Ben Power