ben fox discusses the past, present and future of advertising
TRANSCRIPT
WE WILL MAKE ELECTRICITY ADVERTISINGSO CHEAP THAT ONLY THE RICH
WILL BURN CANDLES
– THOMAS EDISON
FOLLOW ME! LINKEDIN.COM/IN/BENFOX, @BENFOXGO
2005
2013
19000
$70B
SOURCE: BUSINESS INSIDER, PURPLE MOTES
201220001960
( In f la t ion
unadjusted)
$30B
198019401920
US NEWSPAPERAD SPEND 1704-2012
303 YEARS
NEWSPAPER
19000
2012
( In f la t ion
unadjusted)
US RADIOAD SPEND 1922-2012
RADIO
90 YEARS
20001960 198019401920
SOURCE: BUSINESS INSIDER, PURPLE MOTES
NEWSPAPER
$70B
$30B
19000
2012
( In f la t ion
unadjusted)
US TV AD SPEND 1945-2012
RADIO
TV
68 YEARS
20001960 198019401920
SOURCE: BUSINESS INSIDER, PURPLE MOTES
NEWSPAPER
$70B
$30B
19000
SOURCE: BUSINESS INSIDER, PURPLE MOTES
20131993
( In f la t ion
unadjusted)
US DIGITALAD SPEND 1993-2013 ~36.5 B
RADIO
20 YEARS
1960 198019401920 2000
$70B
$30B
TV
NEWSPAPER
19740
2023
28
38
48
2003 2013
MY LAST 10 YEARS OF ONLINE ADVERTISING
IN 2003, WHEN YAHOO
BOUGHT OVERTURE,
WE SPENT ALL OUR
TIME EXPLAINING
“SEARCH ADVERTISING”(And don’t say “Algorithmic
Search Results”)
1993:THE FIRST BANNER AD
ATT on HOTWIRED.COM CTR 78%!
ONLINE AD MEETINGS WITH CMO’s IN 2003
“Does this mean
advertising on
those AOL Disks?”
– Automotive CMO
Objection #1:
ONLINE AD MEETINGS WITH CMO’s IN 2003
“Does this mean
advertising on
those AOL Disks?”
– Automotive CMO
Objection #1:
“Why do I need to spend money
online? I don’t even have
the internet at my house!”
– Fortune 500 CEO
Objection #2:
ONLINE AD MEETINGS WITH CMO’s IN 2003
“Does this mean
advertising on
those AOL Disks?”
– Automotive CMO
Objection #1:
“Why do I need to spend money
online? I don’t even have
the internet at my house!”
– Fortune 500 CEO
Objection #2:
Well how have you been
replying to my emails?
Follow up:
“Oh that’s my secretary reading
them to me and replying
back to you!”
ONLINE AD MEETINGS WITH CMO’s IN 2003
“Does this mean
advertising on
those AOL Disks?”
– Automotive CMO
Objection #1:
“Why do I need to spend money
online? I don’t even have
the internet at my house!”
– Fortune 500 CEO
Objection #2:
Well how have you been
replying to my emails?
Follow up:
$7B
2003 ENTIRE US ONLINE
ADVERTISING SPEND
2013 DISPLAY: $8B!
$7B
2003 ENTIRE US ONLINE
ADVERTISING SPEND
$46B
2013 ENTIRE US ONLINE
ADVERTISING SPEND
2013 DISPLAY: $8B!
$7B
2003 ENTIRE US ONLINE
ADVERTISING SPEND
IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS
HAVE ONE OF THE
BIGGEST OPPORTUNITIES
OF THE LAST 100 YEARS
AVERAGE
AGE OF AGENCY
EMPLOYEE:
28!
NEWS INVENTORY,
SOCIAL INVENTORY
SMART PHONE ADS
ON PANDORA
CTV SAMSUNG
INVENTORY
CTV EXCLUSIVE,
NETBLOCKS
NEWSPAPER
RADIO
TV
BILLBOARDS
DIRECT MAIL
WHAT DO
YOU DO NEXT?
HERE’S THE PLAYBOOK
FOCUS ON CONSUMER STATE
DISRUPTION DRIVES EVOLUTION
THE 1:1 MARKETING CONVERGENCE
1
2
3
FOCUS ON THE CONSUMER STATE!1
1 THE CONSUMER STATE AT HOME IS SIMULTANEOUS!
TOP ACTIVITIES PERFORMED DURING SIMULTANEOUS SCREEN USAGE
BASE: MULTI-SCREEN OCCASIONS (4486) Q: Which Activities did you do on your [DEVICE]
SOURCE: GOOGLE .COM “THE NEW MULTI-SCREEN WORLD: UNDERSTANDING CROSS-PLATFORM CONSUMER BEHAVIOR.” 2012
TOP ACTIVITIES PERFORMED DURING SIMULTANEOUS SCREEN USAGE
BASE: MULTI-SCREEN OCCASIONS (4486) Q: Which Activities did you do on your [DEVICE]
SOURCE: GOOGLE .COM “THE NEW MULTI-SCREEN WORLD: UNDERSTANDING CROSS-PLATFORM CONSUMER BEHAVIOR.” 2012
THE TOP STATES FOR USERS
ON MULTI-SCREEN ARE
EMAIL, WEB BROWSING & SOCIAL!
HOW MANY TV PLANNERS
ARE IN THE ROOM?
HOW MANY TV PLANNERS HAVE
PUT EMAIL & TVON A SINGLE IO?
MOBILE IS A TECHNOLOGY FEATURE,
NOT AN ADVERTISING SILO.
“Mobile” is actually
an at home device!
Second only to time
spent on TV
Source: Edwin Wong, Senior Director,
B2B of Strategic Insights, Yahoo!
EMAIL & SOCIAL DOMINATE THE MOBILE STATE
Source: Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism in collaboration with The Economist Group
Source: ExactTarget channel study 2012
DOES ANYONE KNOW WHAT THIS IS?
ADVERTISING
CHARACTERISTICS:
AFFLUENT EARLY ADOPTERS
SAFE BRAND ENVIRONMENT
HOME PAGE IS DEFAULT
HIGHLY ENGAGED AUDIENCE
ACTIVE USAGE
THIS IS A SAMSUNG SMART TV
THIS IS A SAMSUNG SMART TV
THIS IS A SAMSUNG SMART TV
THIS IS A SAMSUNG SMART TV
THE FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT TO SMART TV IS WELL UNDERWAY
18% of US Homes currently
own a Smart TV
33% of US Homes will have a
Smart TV in 2015
By 2015, 77MM Smart TV’s
will be shipped globally
– Morgan Stanley
– Forrester
– IHS
HOURS
PER DAY
AVERAGE 25-34 Y.O. CONSUMER
5 LIVE, DVR+3
$70B
WATCHING
TRADITIONAL
TV / DVR+3
SOCIALSEARCH
“TV” AD PLANNING MIGHT LOOKVERY DIFFERENT IN THE FUTURE!
$42B
$14B
$14B BROWSE
1
1HOUR
HOURS
HOUR
3
THE BEST AD
PLANNERS IN
THE WORLD MAPCONSUMER
STATE
THEIR ADVERTISING TO THE
DISRUPTION DRIVES
EVOLUTION2
DEVICE ADVERTISINGDEVICE ADVERTISINGCONTENT &
DISTRIBUTION
DEVICE ADVERTISINGDEVICE ADVERTISINGCONTENT &
DISTRIBUTION
CONTENT &
DISTRIBUTION ADVERTISINGDEVICE
CROSS CHANNEL PLATFORM
AN ADVERTISING ECOSYSTEM
LOCKED IN SILOS BY DISTRIBUTION IS NOW OPEN!
DISRUPTION WILL DRIVE AGENCY EVOLUTION
Monthly Planning Cycles
All Media GRP
Agency Performance Fee
Guaranteed Performance
Sales revenue share
NEXT
Fractional Attribution
Interactive, User Selected, Single user
targeted
$ +
12-24 Month Planning Cycles
No Online GRP
Agency Flat Fee
NOW
Last View/Click Attribution
22 mins Contact/8 mins ads/30
Second Interruption Spot
$
ORGANIZATION
Be an integrated agency even if your client isn’t
AGENCY EVOLUTION ROADMAP
HIRING DNA
The math major, not the marketing major, becomes the new must hire
DYNAMICALLY APPROVED CREATIVES
Let algorithms dynamically create, test, and recommend millions of creatives for you
DATA INTEGRATION
Deep integration with your clients’ sales data
TECHNOLOGY & VENDOR LEADERSHIP
Focus on data integration, analytics, reporting and optimization. Master delivery through long
term vendor partnerships
THE 1:1 MARKETING
CONVERGENCE3
CONSUMERS ARE LIVING IN A REAL-TIME WORLD!
CONSUMERS ARE LIVING IN A REAL-TIME WORLD!
CONSUMERS ARE LIVING IN A REAL-TIME WORLD!
CONSUMERS ARE LIVING IN A REAL-TIME WORLD!
CONSUMERS ARE LIVING IN A REAL-TIME WORLD!
CONSUMERS ARE LIVING IN A REAL-TIME WORLD!
CONSUMERS ARE LIVING IN A REAL-TIME WORLD!
CONSUMERS ARE LIVING IN A REAL-TIME WORLD!
19000
SOURCE: BUSINESS INSIDER, PURPLE MOTES
20131993
( In f la t ion
unadjusted)
ALL CURRENT USAD SPEND
$160 Billion 2012
RADIO
1960 198019401920 2000
$70B
$30B
TV
NEWSPAPER
DIGITAL
THE DEATH OF
“TV”, “RADIO”, “OUTDOOR”, ETC.
IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!
THEY ALL EVOLVE!
2013
$
2023
RADIO
NEWS
PAPER
TV
LAST
PRINTED
Page
AM/FM
AUDIO
FTP/ CABLE
STREAMING AUDIO
DIGITAL PRINT
LTE/FIBER
$200B
2013
$200B
2023
ADVERTISING EVOLVES INTO A DIGITAL SINGULARITY
PRAGMATIC PLANNING
THE NEAR FUTURE MEDIA PLAN:
DEVICE AGNOSTIC
CONSUMER STATE
DEVICE AGNOSTIC
CONSUMER STATEMEASURING ACROSS MEDIA TYPES
USING ALGORITHMIC CREATIVES
THROUGH CENTRALIZED DELIVERY
USING AN ALL MEDIA GRPs
WITH TRUE FRACTIONAL ATTRIBUTION
TARGETING ALL AUDIENCES OR A SINGLE PERSON
DIRECTLY INTEGRATED TO YOUR ADVERTISERS’SALES DATA WAREHOUSE AND CRM
WHILE OPTIMIZING AGAINST DAILY POINT OF SALE RESULTS
BILLIONS OF EXCHANGE BIDS
WHILE BACKING OUT AGAINST A TOTAL LIFETIME CUSTOMER VALUE METRIC
COLLECTING YOUR AGENCY FEE AS A SALES BASED REVENUE SHARE
In real time.
THE ADCONION MARKETPLACE
77OF TOP100 ADVERTISERS
1.1 BILLIONVIDEO AND
DISPLAYSTREAMS, OF
WHICH 65% AREEXCLUSIVE
REVENUE SPLIT
50%AGENCY
5,000+
TOP-TIERINVENTORYPARTNERS
INTEGRATEDTECH STACK
BIG DATA PREDICTIVEMODELING
PROPRIETARYRTB
AUDIENCE 360ANALYTICS
DEVICE MANUFACTURERSAPP DEVELOPERSCONTENT OWNERS
CROSS-CHANNEL, CROSS-DEVICE
DISPLAY MOBILE SOCIAL CTV700MM
UNIQUES PER MONTH
50%DIRECT CLIENT
40 BILLION EVENTS PER MONTH
2.7 BILLION BID REQUESTSPER DAY
3 GLOBAL
CO-LOCATION FACILITIES ON
CONTINENTS3
ADCONION TARGETING PLATFORM
OUR SUPPLY
OUR DEMAND
2005
2013
2023
2023
2023
2023
THE NEXT 10 YEARS IS YOUR TIME.
ARE YOU READY!?
FOLLOW ME!:linkedin.com/in/benfox
@benfoxgo
C ON TAC T AD C ON ION D IR EC T AT:s a l e s @ a d c o n i o n d i r e c t . c o m