CETMAP ATLANTIC UPDATE

Ben Best, Jason Roberts, Pat Halpin

Nov 2011 Draft Report (550 p)

Since then… More datasets Standardize dataset ingestion Enhanced environmental predictors Mix platforms Segment transects Spatial models for Encounters & Group

Size Subset for model validation and

performance R scripts to Python tools

Added datasets

Updated Atlantic datasets

2006 - 2009

Static Predictors

Dynamic Predictors

Dynamic Predictors (cont’d)Polarity

Mixing Platforms

ship

aircraft

env

Credit: NODES report illustrations

Mixing Platforms

Segmentation

Segmentation

Segmentation (cont’d)Spanning (10 km, 1 hr)

Non-spanning

5 km

10 km

25 km

50 km

100 km

150 km

250 km

Data Dashboard

Det formulas – AIC, GoF, ChiSqN obs by

platform, region

N obs vs seg length(limited by spp, region, platform)

Det prob vs distance - ESW

Fit data specification

Model Input Dataregions taxon platforms segmentations detfxns model_id

GM Balaenoptera edeni boat 200 GM_hn-cds Bal_ede_GM_01

GM Feresa attenuata boat 200 GM_hn-cds Fer_att_GM_01

GM Globicephala spp. boat 200 hr-beaufort Glo_spp_GM_01

GM Kogia spp. boat 200 hr-beaufort Kog_spp_GM_01

GM Mesoplodon spp. boat 200 hr-beaufort Mes_spp_GM_01

GM Peponocephala electra boat 200 GM_hn-cds Pep_ele_GM_01

GM Physeter macrocephalus boat 25 GM_hn-cds Phy_mac_GM_01

GM Pseudorca crassidens boat 200 GM_hn-cds Pse_cra_GM_01

GM Stenella attenuata boat 25 GM_hr-cds Ste_att_GM_01

GM Stenella clymene boat 200 GM_hn-beaufort Ste_cly_GM_01

GM Stenella clymene/longirostris boat 200 GM_hn-beaufort Ste_clylon_GM_01

GM Stenella coeruleoalba boat 200 hn-beaufort Ste_coe_GM_01

GM Stenella longirostris boat 200 GM_hr-beaufort Ste_lon_GM_01

GM Steno bredanensis boat 200 GM_hr-beaufort Ste_br_GM_01

GM Ziphius cavirostris boat 200 hn-beaufort Zip_cav_GM_01

GM;GM Grampus griseus boat;plane 100;200 hr-beaufort;hr-cds Gra_gri_GM_01

GM;GM Stenella attenuata/frontalis boat;plane 10;200 hr-beaufort;hn-beaufort Ste_attfro_GM_01

GM;GM Stenella frontalis boat;plane 200;200 hr-beaufort;hr-beaufort Ste_fro_GM_01

GM;GM Tursiops truncatus boat;plane 25;5 hr-beaufort;hr-beaufort Tur_tru_GM_01

NE Balaenoptera borealis plane 200 NE_hn-cds Bal_bor_NE_01

NE Lagenorhynchus albirostris plane 200 NE_hn-cds Lag_alb_NE_01

NE Stenella coeruleoalba boat 25 hn-beaufort Ste_coe_NE_01

NE Ziphius cavirostris boat 50 hr-cds Zip_cav_NE_01

Model Formulas – 180 variations 10000s digit - region

1000 - GM

1000s digit - season

1000 - All year 2000 - GM winter: DayOfYear >= 18 AND DayOfYear <= 73 3000 - GM spring-fall: DayOfYear >= 106 AND DayOfYear <= 275

100s digit - env/space/time combination

Encounter rate:

100 - env + space + time 200 - env + te(space, time, bs='ts', k=10) 300 - env + space 400 - env + time 500 – env

10s digit - smoothing controls

10 - REML 20 - GCV.Cp, gamma=1.6 30 - GCV.Cp, gamma=1.0, k=5 per predictor 40 - GCV.Cp, gammma=1.6, bs=ts, k=3 50 - GCV.Cp, gammma=1.6, bs=ts, k=4 60 - GCV.Cp, gammma=1.6, bs=ts, k=5 70 - GCV.Cp, gammma=1.6, bs=cs, k=3 80 - GCV.Cp, gammma=1.6, bs=cs, k=4 90 - GCV.Cp, gammma=1.6, bs=cs, k=5

1s digit - customized tweak

0 - base model with no tweaks

Prediction Grid

Observations – Test vs Train Sperm whale

Explore Data

Fit Model

Predict Density: Sperm whale - Jul

Encounter Rate

Group Size

X

Sperm whale density - Apr

Sperm whale density - May

Sperm whale density - Jun

Sperm whale density - Jul

Sperm whale density - Aug

Sperm whale density - Sep

Tools for Workflows

Roberts JJ, BD Best, DC Dunn, EA Treml, PN Halpin (2010) Marine Geospatial Ecology Tools: An integrated framework for ecological geoprocessing with ArcGIS, Python, R, MATLAB, and C++. Environmental Modelling & Software.

Next Steps Run predictions on rest of species for GoMex Ingest 2 recent sets of data (NARWSS,

UNCW) Run predictions on Atlantic species Variance estimation Rare species modeling approaches (BRT,

RandomForests, ZIP Bayes, Maxent…) Generate static report Elicit expert review Validation and sensitivity (segmentations /

platform / prediction avg) Populate CetMap / SEAMAP / MarineCadastre

Thank youComments or questions?

Maxent for Density? Allocate density through

Maxent suitability surface (VanDerWal et al 2009; Oliver et al

2012; Jiménez-Valverde 2011) a la RES

or Maxent(occ) * f(GS) = Density

Variability through bootstrapjava -jar maxent.jar -X 25 replicates=100 100 runs, 75% randomly chosen presence records mean, standard deviation and lower confidence limits per

pixel

Variable Importance

Interrogate Pixel