Urban Development inPost-Conflict Angola

ten years afterAllan Cain

DEVELOPMENT WORKSHOPPresented to the

2011 BEIJING FORUMPanel Session IV

Transformation and Stability:Achievements and Challenges in Developing

Countries04 - 06 October 2011

Beijing, Peoples Republic of China

Background on Angola & China• Angola is China’s principal African trading partner• 25% of China’s African commerce is with Angola• 15% of China’s petroleum imports are from Angola• Angola and China are two of the fastest urbanising countries in

the world.• At 7% growth Luanda is the fastest growing city in Southern

Africa.• Much of Angola’s post-war reconstruction is financed by Chinese

credit lines.• Chinese – Angolan economic cooperation is estimated to be

about US$ 25 billion over the last decade.

Post-War Angola• In four decades of

conflict including 27 years of civil war, millions of Angolans fled the countryside for the relative safety of the big cities and their crowded shantytowns.

• With their meager resources, they built dwellings on land obtained by mostly informal mechanisms, often with little security of tenure.

Post-Conflict Challenges• The war resulted in the destruction of

infrastructure and the breakdown of institutions of all kinds

• The ability of Government to maintain an administrative presence and collect data of all kinds was also negatively affected.

• The last national census was conducted by the colonial regime in 1972

• The last complete national meteorological statistics were published for the year 1974.

• The “gap” of more than thirty-five years of meteorological information coincides with the recent period of accelerated climate change.

1932 1972 2007

The colonial government had built up an extensive network of over 500 meteorological stations across the country. Except for a few urban stations like Luanda most ceased reporting in the war.

Environmental & Climate Change

• A decade of post-war economic growth has transformed Angola,

• There are dramatic improvements in the country's infrastructure

• Rehabilitated roads are starting to bring cheaper food into the cities

• Urban development is taking place in the areas of commercial expansion catering to growing middle and upper income groups

• But many urban Angolans are still seeking to cross the line between poverty and prosperity.

Angola’s Decade of Transformations

Poverty and vulnerability• Many poor families have been excluded

from the benefits of the post-war peace dividend.

• In the decade since the end of the war the Angolan economy has grown by over 500% but at the same time poverty has only been reduced from 68% to 52% (CEIC 2011).

• Still almost one in five children do not live until their fifth birthday (IBEP 2010).

• The risks that caused the war were in fact not all resolved by the violent conflict…

• Many risks were exacerbated rather than resolved by the war.

• Physical, social and institutional infrastructure has been largely destroyed there is a very weak framework into which people can “re-integrate”

Assessing post-conflict risksAssessing post-conflict risks

Resettlement and re-integration At the end of the

war only 30% of the areas of return were considered to have achieved the minimum conditions for humanitarian resettlement (UN Guiding Principals)

Post-Conflict Risk Mapping

Landmine clearance

Eroded Institutions• Population migration has led to heterogeneous

communities: but there were excluded groups in some communities.

• The war encouraged mistrust, weakened customary leadership and eroded social capital (as shown by people retaining arms as an insurance policy)

Post-Conflict Risk Mapping

Institutions & Changing Roles of Women• Customary rural institutions

traditionally excluded women• Women’s roles however changed

during conflict. They shoulder a major burden in reconstruction, and need to participate more actively in civil institutions.

Poverty and Socio-Economic Inclusion

GINI Coefficient Comparison of Extractive Industry States (2005)

0.62

0.51

0.43

0.37

0.35

0.26

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Angola

Nigeria

Cameroons

Algeria

Egypt

Norway

Indicators (2007) Luanda L.Norte L. Sul Malanje Bie Huambo National

GDP per capita (US$) 8,783 432 907 1,960 237 394 3,422

Poverty Index % 45.1 64.2 64.0 73.7 83.6 56.5 55.5

Unemployment Rate % 20.9 18.9 18.7 19.7 22.4 37.5 27.4

Business Volume %[1] 71.2 0.6 1.6 1.3 0.3 4.2 100.0

[1] Percentage of national business transactions that occur by province. (IBID 2006 & CEIC 2011)

0.62

0.51

0.43

0.37

0.35

0.26

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Angola

Nigeria

Cameroons

Algeria

Egypt

Norway

Urban Challenges

76% of Luanda’s population lives in

informal Musseques

Development Workshop Angola

CRESCIMENTO EXPANSIVO

1989 - 100,80 Km²

1998 - 253,27 Km²2000 - 270,05 Km²

1980 - 19,42 Km²

2010 – 350,00 Km²

Luanda’s rapid urban growth in war and post-war years

Financing urban development• Large-scale investment is needed in bulk provision, such

as mains water supply and treatment, final rubbish disposal sites and mains sewerage.

• Financing urban development in a situation such as Luanda, which has a low fiscal base, is a severe challenge.

• This is due partly to the poverty of the majority of the inhabitants.

• The weak taxation regime in general partly due to a lack of up-to-date cadastre and population census.

• Financing is required at a scale that even the state cannot afford.

• Partnerships with private sector and international lenders are necessary.

• China has been the principal financer of Angolan reconstruction.

Contracts of Chinese Companies in Angola (2003 – 2009), US$ millions

Chinese Economic Cooperation

Angola’s Poverty Reduction Strategy

The Angolan Government has adopted four strategies that could have significant impacts on reducing urban poverty:

1. Water for All aims to bring an adequate and affordable supply of water to 80% of peri-urban and rural families by the end of 2012.

2. One million house programme aims to deliver social housing to the homeless by 2012.

3. Decentralisation and fiscal deconcentration aims to have democratically elected municipal councils after 2012.

4. Commitment to the Millennium Development Goals to reduce poverty by 50% by 2015.

One million house programme

115,000 houses to be supplied by State

685,000 houses to be self-built

• Building Government policy partnerships by involving Civil Society in monitoring.

• Urban Observatory Poverty Monitoring for the Ministry of Urbanism and Environment (MINUA) using the MDG 11 indicators of:

Water Environmental SanitationOvercrowdingLand tenureHousing quality

Using MDG for Pro-Poor Monitoring

Geographic Information Systems

Participatory and spatial mapping

Remote sensing

Focal areas of study

Luanda’s population reached 7 million in 2010 and is currently growing at 7% per year.

Building Population Density Model with Romote Sensing

Poverty Mapping of Luanda

76% of all Luanda's population lives in

Musseques with inadequate housing,

poor access to services and high

environmental and tenure security risks.

Findings• The poor occupy much of the

valuable inner-city land that is rapidly increasing in value.

• Most of poor families accumulated savings are tied up in the land they occupy and the house they built or purchase.

• Land tenure risks in peri-urban areas are increasing as occupancy rights remain insecure under new laws

• Recognising the poor’s tenure is a strategy for poverty reduction.

Findings: Demography and Migration Low expectations of future emigration out of peri-Low expectations of future emigration out of peri-urban areasurban areasMigration from rural areas in not the main factor for Migration from rural areas in not the main factor for urban expansion. The largest percentage migrated urban expansion. The largest percentage migrated from other bairrosfrom other bairros

The population of the peripheral bairros of Luanda is The population of the peripheral bairros of Luanda is growing mainly due to natural population increases growing mainly due to natural population increases and city-internal migration.and city-internal migration.

SISTEMA NACIONAL DE INFORMAÇÃO TERRITORIAL

Findings: Precarious Land Tenure

Outra0.0%

Cartao de morador 0.7%

Acordo foi publicado1.5%

Recibo da utilidade publica1.0%

Licença de arrematação

0.2%

Registro Predial0.5%

Direito de Superfície0.5%

Titulo de ocupação precario

5.6%

Testemunhado por tecnico do governo

6.8%

Croquis de Localização7.3%

Recebi uma declaração49.1%

Contrato de compra e venda12.2%

Nenhum documento14.4%

Only 6.8% of the urban population studied in Luanda have legalised tenure as defined by the current land legislation.

Increasing Tenure Insecurity for the Poor• The poor often occupy valuable inner-city urban real-estate.• Urban Plans involve Forced Removals of the Poor from the

Urban Centre and the creation of township-style settlments on the perifery on low-valued land.

• Expropriation of the poor’s assets deepens poverty.

Informal Land Market Research• Luanda has a triving informal land market. 61.3% of

transactions involve payments.• Since transactions are almost always documented they are

not really be considered “informal” by most occupiers.• 85% of those interviewed consider these transactions to be

legitimate.• The majority of transactions are not legally recognised by

the State. Only 6.8% of land transactions are substantiated with documents that the State considers legal.

• Most land occupiers risk loosing their land and housing assets is they become subject to forced removals, demolitions or re-location.

Land Value Mapping in Luanda 2010

Urban Land Policy Recommendations

1. Promote more functional and inclusive land markets2. Integrate existing practice into an inclusive land policy3. Recognize the right of occupation in ‘good faith’4. Incorporate the right to information into practice.5. Introduce regulations for Incremental tenure6. Strengthen institutions at the municipal level7. Build municipal land information systems (cadastres)8. Secure women’s land rights9. Facilitate public policy advocacy and civic awareness10. Execute pilot projects on land titling and land pooling11. Ensure just compensation is paid in case of land

expropriation

Dissemination of Lessons

Publication of Results in book “TERRA”

Terras 2001- 2010

Feeding the Public Domain CEDOC monthly Media Scan

Increasing media attention to land conflicts

Obrigado