behavioral consideration in the formulation of …

© Johannes Siebert, Ralph Keeney 1

ÜBERSCHRIFT IN GROSSBUCHSTABENÜBERSCHRIFT IN GROSSBUCHSTABEN

BEHAVIORAL CONSIDERATION IN THE

FORMULATION OF OBJECTIVES


ÜBERSCHRIFT IN GROSSBUCHSTABEN

PROFILE JOHANNES SIEBERT

http://johannessiebert.com/

Academic background

• Diploma in Business Administration

• Dissertation in multi criteria decision making

• Habilitation in behavioral OR and decision analysis

Research

• “Improving individual and organizational decision making”

•Published i.a. in Operations Research, European Journal of Operational Research, Decision Analysis

Academic community

• Organizer of sessions and conferences

• Coordinating Board Member of the EURO WG on BOR

•Board Member of the Section on Multiple Criteria Decision Making (INFORMS)

Third-party projects

• Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism

• Oberfranken-stiftung and FraunhoferProject Group Process Innovation

• Adalbert-Raps-Stiftung

Consultancy

• Pentagon

• California Department of Transportation (Caltrans)

• Energie Baden-Württemberg

• Pharma

http://johannessiebert.com/



Give Yourself a Nudge (Ralph Keeney)5

Structuring Objectives4

Formulating Objectives3

Identifying Objectives2

Introduction to Value-focused Thinking1

Agenda



TIMING (PLANNED)

Content Format Duration Start End

Presentation (plus questions) 10 12:30 PM 12:40 PM

Self-introduction of participants 0 12:40 PM 12:40 PM

Introduction to Value-focused Thinking Presentation (motivation, methods) 22 12:40 PM 1:02 PM

Presentation (methods) 3 1:02 PM 1:05 PM

Experiment “objectives during a PhD” (Step 1+2) 12 1:05 PM 1:17 PM


Experiment “objectives during a PhD” (Step 3+4) 9 1:21 PM 1:30 PM

15 1:30 PM 1:45 PM

Presentation (results experiment) 6 1:45 PM 1:51 PM


Reformulation “objectives during a PhD” 16 1:59 PM 2:15 PM

15 2:15 PM 2:30 PM


Structuring “objectives during a PhD” 21 2:44 PM 3:05 PM

Presentation (applications) 10 3:05 PM 3:15 PM

15 3:15 PM 3:30 PM

Presentation 30 3:30 PM 4:00 PM

Q+A 15 4:00 PM 4:15 PM

Selected student presentation, open

questionsOpen questions, closing 15 4:15 PM 4:30 PM

Break

Give yourself a Nudge (speaker Ralph

Keeney)

Welcome and organizational issues

Identifying of objectives

Break

Formulation of objectives

Break

Structuring of objectives








Agenda



FOUNDATIONS OF DECISION MAKING

Many good decisions lead to a better life

Keeney, R. (1992). Value-focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decision making. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Picture source: https://blogs.unimelb.edu.au/seconds/2017/04/01/a-guide-to-figuring-out-the-rest-of-your-life-aimee/

”The only way to exert control over your

life is through your decision-making.

The rest just happens to you.”*




After your successful Ph.D you are working already for two yearsin the industry. A headhunter calls you and offers you anattractive job

Which decision(s) do you have to make?

Motivating example

Picture source: https://www.brama-west.de/de/pferdesportzubehoer/Fahrgeschirre-und-Zubehoer/kopfgestell-mit-scheuklappen.html




Your life is the result of

your previous decisions,

your actions,

the decisions and actions of other individuals andorganizations, and

happenstance.

You have the ability to maintain and improve your life in thefuture.

Your power to do this follows from a simple fact.

The only purposeful way you can influence anything in your lifeis through you decisions.

The rest just happens to you beyond your control

Decisions and the Quality of Your Life

Keeney, R. L. 2020. Give yourself a Nudge: Helping Smart People Make Smarter Personal and Business Decisions



Alternative focused Thinking

1. A problem occurs

2. Alternatives to solve the problem are identified, or often just accepted because they are already available

3. Specify your values

4. Alternatives are evaluated and a choice is made

AFT is backwards, constrained thinking and reactive

Alternatives are means to achieve your values, so begin with values

Value focused Thinking

1. A problem occurs

2. Specify your values, articulate and understand them

3. Identify your alternatives

4. Evaluate them in terms of your values and make a choice

VFT is forward focused, open, and proactive

BIASES AND CHALLENGES IN DECISION MAKING

How decisions are typically made vs. how decision should be made

Keeney, RL 1994. Using Values in Operations Research. Operations Research 42(5), pp. 793-813, Keeney, RL 1992. Value-focused Thinking: A Path to creative Decision Making. Harvard University Press, CambridgeSiebert, JU; Kunz, R 2016. “Developing and Validating the Multidimensional Proactive Decision-Making Scale”. Sonderheft „Behavioral Operations Research“ der Zeitschrift European Journal of Operational Research, 249(3), 864-877, dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.06.066

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280626589_Developing_and_Validating_the_Multidimensional_Proactive_Decision-Making_Scale




Structuring Objecitves4




Agenda



„...Alice, and she (the Cat): “Would you tell me, please,

which way I ought to go from here?“

„That depends a good deal on where you want to get

to,“ said the Cat.

„I do not much care where -“ said Alice.

„Then it does not matter which way you go,“ said the Cat.

...“ (Alice in Wonderland, Lewis Carrol)

IDENTIFYING OBJECTIVES

Our objectives define our decision

Picture source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/John_Tenniel#/media/File:Alice_par_John_Tenniel_23.png




For PhD students

Suppose you have identified ten potential dissertation topics andnow have to pick one. Write down all the objectives that matterto you in selecting a dissertation topic.

For supervisors

Suppose your PhD candidate has identified ten potentialdissertation topics and now have to pick one. Write down all theobjectives that should matter to him or her in selecting adissertation topic.

Experiment “Choosing a Dissertation Topic” (Step 1)

You have 6 minutes. Please do only this step




Experiment “Choosing a Dissertation Topic” (Step 2)

Check all objectives that are important to your choice of a dissertation topic.A Is a topic acceptable to faculty for my doctorate S Helps me balance my career and personal life

BIs of interest to a faculty member that I want to

serve as my advisorT

Causes me to learn skills that will be applicable to future

research

C Leads to multiple publishable papers U Prepares me as an independent researcher

D Is of interest to me/maintains my interest V Improves ability to write research proposals for funding

E Can be scoped/is tractable WPuts me in control of the dissertation process (e.g.,

content, timing)

F Uses methods generalizable to other domains X Is innovative/pursues a new idea/novel

GIs interdisciplinary in nature/combines different

areasY

Is insightful/has results that weren’t obvious prior to my

work

H Utilizes my academic strengths Z Is relevant to real-world applications/is implementable

I Does not require lots of data gathering AA Will help people/organizations make better decisions

J Does not require a lot of data analysis BB Addresses problems that are important

K Provides opportunity to improve my writing skills CC Influences the work of others

LAddresses issues involving collaboration between

public and private sectorsDD Stimulates discussion with colleagues

MProvides opportunity for sufficient quantitative

analysisEE Leads to potentially fundable future research

N Allows for personal time during ‘dissertation years’ FF Provides basis for further research

O Is of interest to the research/academic community GG Opens new areas of research after the dissertation

P Is enjoyable to do HH Results in an interesting job talk paper

Q Helps me develop myself academically II Provides opportunities to work with top scholars

RHelps me build a coherent future research

program You have 4 minutes. Please do only this step




Identifying Values

Step 1: Create an initial wish list. Include every value you hope to achieve inthe decision situation Write down all the things that come to mind that you care about in facing this

decision Write down anything that you hope to achieve by making the decision

Step 2: Stimulate additional values by using mind-probing techniques andasking others

Step 3: Use each of the values already listed to search for missed values. Foreach listed value, ask yourself: Why do I care about this value? What does this value mean? What is the general category of this value?

Step 4: Do individual thinking first. Then, ask others for suggestions of valuesthat may be relevant Collect suggestions for values form several individuals (Stakeholders, Friends,

Knowledgeable individuals)

Identifying values




Techniques for identifying objectives

Adapted from Keeney, R. (1992). Value-focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decision making. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Technique Questions

Emotions and Feelings Articulate your emotions and feelings that are influenced by the decision

situation. Ask yourself why you care about these and how your alternatives

may address them.

Alternatives Identify a perfect alternative, a terrible alternative, some reasonable

alternatives, the status quo. What is good or bad about each?

Consequences Think about what might occur that is good or bad. What might occur that you

care about?

Goal and Constraints Review any goals and constraints. What are your reasons for setting having

these?

Different Perspectives Suppose a friend or someone you know faced your decision. What might

their values be? If you faced this decision at some time in the future, what

would concern you?

Strategic Values Consider the values for guiding your life that are relevant to any life-changing

decision? Are any of these values, or aspects of them, relevant to this

decision?

Generic Values What values have you had for the same or similar decisions that you have

faced? Are these relevant now?




Think a bit harder about the objectives that matter when selecting adissertation topic. Many dissertation objectives will fall into one of thefollowing categories:

• Academic Objectives While A Student

• Academic Objectives After Graduating

• Personal Objectives While A Student

• Personal Objectives After Graduating

• Other

Consider each category and list any additional objectives that matter to you.

Categories to Stimulate Dissertation Objectives




Step 3: Please match the objectives you have identified in the first

step to the objectives you have identified in the second step by

writing the letters in the text box after the self-generated alternatives.

If an objective you named can be assigned to two or more

objectives, please select the alternative that you think fits better. If

no assignment is possible, please enter a "1". One alternative on the

list can also be assigned to several alternatives named by you.

Step 4. Please rank the objectives you mentioned so that the

alternative you would most likely implement is ranked "1". You can

move the objective using the drag & drop method. To do this, click

on the desired alternative on the left side and drag it to the right to

the desired position in the ranking field. In the ranking field, you can

change the order using the same technique.

Experiment “Choosing a Dissertation Topic” (Steps 3 and 4)

Please submit the questionnaire before 1.35



We continue at

1:45 PM




Experiment: MBA Internship Objectives

Study on the omission bias

Bond, S. D., K. A. Carlson, R. L. Keeney 2008. Generating Objectives: Can Decision Makers Articulate What They Want? Management Science, 54(1), 56-70.

Step 1: DMs generate as many relevant objectives as they can.

Objectives List

DM Objective A DM Objective B DM Objective C DM Objective D …. …. ….

Step 2: DMs see the master list and check all objectives that are relevant.

Master ListObjective

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective

Step 3: DMs map objectives from Step 1 to the master list. Checked items that map back are self-generatedobjectives; all others are recognized.


Objective D

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective B

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective A

Objective

Objective

Objective

DM Objective C

_____________

_____________

_____________

Step 4: DMs rate the importance of all checked objectives.


Objective D

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective B

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective

Objective A

Objective

Objective

Objective

DM Objective C

_____________

_____________

_____________

1

2

3

4

5




Results Experiment “Choosing a Dissertation Topic”

Self-generated objectives

Recognized objectives

Overall objectives

7.01 7.50 14.51

3.41 3.71 6.45

Number

SD

Cumulative distribution of self-generated and recognized objectives

38% 38% 37% 35% 33% 32% 31% 29% 27% 25%

62% 62% 63% 65% 67% 68% 69% 71% 73% 75%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Self-generated

Recognized








Agenda



FORMULATING OBJECTIVES

Values

are the things that we ultimately want to achieve by making decisions

express what is important to us, based on our dreams, desires, dislikes,…,

Some values are universal, others only apply to certain decisions

It is useful to restate values as objectives, because they are easier to understand

Objectives always consist of a subject and a verb (plus direction)

Setting clear goals for a decisions

Example value Restated as objective

Fuel consumption Minimize fuel consumption

Mileage Minimize mileage

Age Minimize age

Power Maximize horse power

Example: Buying a car



„Money“„Good

network“

„Flat should be

comfortable“

Maximize business

network

Have as good a

network as

possible

Maximize income

Have as high income

as possible

Maximize comfort

Have as high as

possible living

comfort

How can the value be stated as objective?

7




What does the value "Challenge" mean

when choosing a job?

Maximize

physical

challenge?

Maximize

intellectual

challenge?

Maximize

mental

challenge?


Maximize /

minimize

physical

challenge?

Maximize /

minimize

intellectual

challenge?

Maximize /

minimize

mental

challenge?



What does the value "work-life balance" mean

when choosing a job?

Minimize working

time?

Maximize

income?

Maximize free

time?




Maximize

performance?

What does the value "good engine" mean

when buying a car?

Minimize

consumption?

Minimize

emissions?




What does the value "Apartment should be

close to the airport“ when choosing a flat?

Minimize

distance to

airport?

Minimize travel

costs to airport?Minimize travel

time to airport ?





State your values as objectives

Discuss different formulations ofobjectives

Create a comprehensive master list ofobjectives in the googledoc together as agroup

Download your master list of objectives

Interact with the other group members

Group Task

We continue at 2:30You may have a break at 2:15

However, you can spend the break in the breakout rooms. There are nice people to talk to



We continue at

2.30 PM




Structuring Objecitves4




Agenda



STRUCTURING OBJECTIVES

Maximize decision

competence

Maximize decision quality

Maximize financial

independence

Have as successful a career as

possible

Have as good a career start as

possible

Why do you participate in this lecture?




Strategic objectives provide guidance for all decisions. They serve as themechanism by which leaders can guide decisions made by differentindividuals and groups within an organization. The strategic objectives canbe achieved by pursuing fundamental objectives

Fundamental objectives concern the ends that decision makers value in aspecific decision

Means objectives refer to actions that can be pursued to promotefundamental and strategic objectives

Means-ends chain: „How could you achieve this?“, „Why is thisimportant?”

Specification of fundamental objectives: What do you mean by that? / Ofwhat more general objective is this an aspect?“

Basic definitions

Adapted modified from Keeney 1993, p.64



Minimizedelivery times

Minimize orderprocessing time

Maximizecustomer

satisfaction

Maximize sales

Maximize profit

Is “minimize order fulfillment time” an

instrumental objectives or a fundamental

objective?




Using the following objectives, create a means-ends objectives network

Minimize health impacts

Minimize CO emissions

Minimize costs

Minimize CO doses

Lower breathing rate

Minimize CO concentrations

Reduce body activity

Maximize CO dispersion

Develop efficient technologies

Introduce fines for violators

Exercise: Set a National Ambient Air Quality Standard for CO




Means objectives and fundamental (ends) objectives can be related in a means-endsobjective network

The network shows how achieving means objectives contributes to achieving fundamentalobjectives

Comment: The colored arrows and question words serve only for didactical reasons.

Means-ends-network: National Ambient Air Quality Standard for CO

Adapted from Keeney, R. (1992). Value-focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decision making. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Introduce fines for violators

Develop efficient technologies

Minimize health impacts

Minimize CO doses

Reduce breathing rate

Minimize CO concentrations

Reduce body activity

Minimize CO dispersion

Minimize CO emissions

Minimize costs

means “influences”

Why?

Why?Why?

How?

How?


ÜBERSCHRIFT IN GROSSBUCHSTABENIs the goal "Minimize ecological footprint" an

instrumental objective or a fundamental

objective for companies?




Structure your objectives

Identify the fundamental objectives

Prepare to present your objectives hierarchy // fundamental objectives

Download your document

Interact with the other group members

Group Task

We continue at 3:00




Case Study: Identifying and structuring objectives of terrorists

Washington Times August 28th 2014




Case Study: Identifying and structuring objectives of terrorists

Siebert, J., Von Winterfeldt, D., & John, R. S. (2016). Identifying and structuring the objectives of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and its followers. Decision Analysis, 13(1), 26-50.




Complete - all of the important consequences of alternativesin decision context can be adequately described in terms ofthe set of fundamental objectives.

Non-redundant - the fundamental objectives should notinclude overlapping concerns.

Concise - the number of objectives, and sub-objectives,should be the minimum appropriate for quality analysis.

Specific - each objective should be specific enough so thatconsequences of concern are clear and attributes can readilybe selected or defined.

Understandable - any interested individual knows what ismeant by the objectives.

Requirements




Uses for means and fundamental objectives

Only fundamental objectives should be used to evaluate andcompare alternatives.

Achievement of the lowest-level objectives can be measuredusing “attributes” to describe and evaluate the variousalternatives.

Means objectives can be used to create alternatives

Whether an objective is a means or a fundamental objectivedepends on the decision context

Uses for means and fundamental objectives



PROACTIVE DECISION MAKING AN ITS IMPLICATIONS

Siebert, JU; Keeney RL 2015. Creating More and Better Alternatives for Decisions Using Objectives. Operations Research, 63(5), 1144-1158, http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2015.1411

Siebert JU; Kunz R 2015. Developing and Validating the Multidimensional Proactive Decision-Making Scale. Special Issue "Behavioral Operations Research", European Journal of Operational Research, 249(3) 2016, 864-877,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.06.066

Siebert, JU; Kunz, R; Rolf P 2020. Effects of Proactive Decision Making on Life Satisfaction. European Journal of Operational Research, 280(1) 2020, 1171-1187, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.08.011

Siebert, JU; Kunz R, Rolf P 2021. Effects of decision training on individuals' decision-making proactivity. European Journal of Operational Research, 294 (1), 264-282, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.01.010

http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2015.1411

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.06.066






PROACTIVE DECISION MAKING AN ITS IMPLICATIONS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8h-aoPh0peQ










Agenda


ÜBERSCHRIFT IN GROSSBUCHSTABENGive Yourself a Nudge to Make Better Personal Decisions

by

Ralph L. Keeney

website: http://ralphkeeney.com/

behavioral consideration in the formulation of …

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