begin with introductory video youtube/watch?v=zh-dbsboxby
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Begin with introductory video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zH-dBsbOxbY. Climate Change & Sea-Level Rise Along the Gulf of Mexico A COSEE Online Institute Presentation Dr. E.D. Estevez [email protected] Mote Marine Laboratory. Today’s Topics. Sea level background Signs of sea-level rise - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Begin with introductory video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zH-dBsbOxbY
Climate Change & Sea-Level Rise Along the Gulf of Mexico
A COSEE Online Institute Presentation
Dr. E.D. [email protected]
Mote Marine Laboratory
Today’s TopicsSea level background
Signs of sea-level rise
Projections of future sea-level rise
Visualizing sea level now and in the future
Sea-Level Variations
• Waves• Tides• Storm Surges• Seiches• Intra-Annual Cycles• Multi-Annual/Decadal Cycles (El Niño, AMO)• Planetary Cycles (Milankovitch Cycles)• Anthropogenic Forcing
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/
In the Context of Climate Change…
The main contributors to sea level and sea-level rise are:
1. Steric effects- the expansion of the world ocean as it warms
2. “New water”- addition of water from ice sheets and glaciers
Other factors are also involved.
SubsidenceSubsidence, or the sinking of land, has multiple
causes.Without sea-level rise, a subsiding coast
experiences a relative rise in sea level.Subsidence added to sea-level rise enhances the
rate of relative sea-level rise.Subsidence contributes to the loss of coastal
wetlands, butCoastal wetlands and forests are also affected by
the present rate of sea-level rise, even in the absence of subsidence.
Effects: Sea Level RiseWHAT WE KNOW
Many tidal wetlands are keeping pace with sea level changes. Some are accreting vertically, migrating up-slope, or both.
Open estuarine waters, brackish marsh, and mangroves in south Florida estuaries are expanding.
Wetlands elsewhere are perishing as estuarine and coastal forests and swamps are retreating, replaced by marsh vegetation.
Even at constant rates of sea level rise, some tidal wetlands will eventually “pinch out” where their upslope migration is prevented by upland defenses such as seawalls.
Effects: Sea Level RiseWHAT IS PROBABLE
Major spatial shifts in wetland communities, including exotic species invasions, will occur.
More lowland coastal forests will be lost during the next one to three centuries as tidal wetlands expand across low-lying coastal areas.
High diversity wetlands in tidal freshwater reaches of coastal rivers will be replaced by low diversity wetlands.
Most tidal wetlands in areas with low freshwater and sediment supplies will “drown” if sea level rise outpaces their ability to accrete vertically.
Effects: Sea Level RiseWHAT IS POSSIBLE
More than half of the saltmarsh, shoals, and mudflats critical to birds and fishes foraging in Florida estuaries, could be lost during the 21st century.
Recreational and commercial fish species that depend on shallow water, or intertidal and subtidal plant communities, are vulnerable.
The loss of tidal wetlands will result in dangerous losses of the coastal systems that buffer storm impacts.
Lido Key, Sarasota County, FloridaWednesday 09/16/09 11:05 am (2.4 ft. astronomical)
Gulf Waters Flooding Storm-water Drains at Normal High Tide
We Already Adapt
• Seawalls, Docks and Piers• Bridges and Causeways• Stormwater Systems• Beach Policies and Practices• Wetland Creation• Building Heights• Disaster Preparedness
www.floridaoceanscouncil.org
Sea-Level Rise Visualization for Alabama and Mississippi.
http://gom.usgs.gov/slr/slr.html
This pilot project is a collaborative effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Coastal Services Center, Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium, and U.S. Geological Survey.
Insert second video with pan of beach
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWVG2AyI1nQ
Mobile State Docks, Mobile Riverhttp://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?stn=8737048 Mobile State Docks
Used with permission by Sarasota Magazine www.sarasotamagazine.com
For Local HelpLouisiana Universities Marine Consortium• http://www.lumcon.edu
Gulf Coast Research Laboratory• http://www.usm.edu/gcrl
Dauphin Island Sea Lab• http://www.disl.org
NOAA CO-OPS Water Level Program• http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov
Thank You, and Thanks to…Brian M. McCann, Ph.D. Center for Educational and Training TechnologyMultimedia Development GroupMississippi State University
Rusty Holmes and Joe NickelsonMote Marine Laboratory
Barbara LauscheMote Marine Policy Institute
Sarasota Magazine
Anonymous reviewers
…and the many public agencies from whom slides were borrowed.