before and after maastricht: the case of slovenia boštjan jazbec member of the governing board bank...
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Before and After Maastricht:The Case of Slovenia
Boštjan JazbecMember of the Governing Board
Bank of Slovenia
Tabor, 23 May 2008
Views expressed are not necessarily views of the Bank of Slovenia.
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Outline
Problems with Maastricht Criteria Fulfilment
Exchange Rate: Shock Generator or Absorber?
Before and After Maastricht
The Case Study: Slovenia
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Strategies for Euro Adoption
Wait for Real Convergence to Take Place
Benefits of Euro Adoption?
Beat the Mastricht Inflation Criterion by
Exchange Rate Manipulation
Entusiasm for Inflation Targeting
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Economics or Politics?
Change of Maastricht Criteria requires change of Treaty
Problem with ECB Governance
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The Case of Slovenia
May 2004: Entry to EU
June 2004: Entry to ERM2
January 2007: Adoption of Euro
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Real Convergence Story?
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Where Do We Stand Today?
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Catching-up Process
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Inflation Criterion: Slovenia 2004 - 2008
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Is this Balassa-Samuelson Effect?
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Structure of HICP
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Food Prices in Slovenia and EMU
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Activity, Employment and Wages
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GDP Growth by Components of Expenditure
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Contributions to Employment Growth
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Financial Deepening
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Lending to Domestic Private Sector
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Interest Rates in Slovenia
Loans to Non-financial Corporations Loans to Households
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Financial inflows
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Current Account Development
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Conclusions
Maastricht Inflation Criterion
Benefits of Euro Adoption
Financial Stability Issue
At least we cannot have exchange rate and B-o-P crises