beat bill belichick - deep learning comes of age!
TRANSCRIPT
TB + BB
Bill Belichick Tom Brady
+ =
15 years together3 Super Bowls
PASS OR RUN?On any given offensive play…
Coach Bill can either call a PASS or a RUN
What determines this?
Game situationOpposing team
Time remaining, etc, etcYards to go (until 1st down)
Basically, lots of s*it.
BUT WHAT IF??Question:
Can we try to predict whether the next play will be PASS or RUNusing historical data?
Approach:
Download every offensive play from Bilichick-Brady era since 2000
Use various Machine Learning approaches to model PASS / RUN
Disclaimer: I’m not a Seahawks fan!
Extract known features to build model inputs
DATA COLLECTIONData:
13 years of data (2002 -2013 season)194 games total
14,547 total offensive plays (excludes punts, kickoffs, returns)
Response Variable: PASS / RUN
Model Inputs:Quarter, Minutes, Seconds, Opposing Team, Down, Distance,Line of Scrimmage, NE-Score, Opposing Team Score, Season,
Formation, Game Status (is NE losing / winning / tied)
MODEL RESULTSH20 Model Confusion Matrix Overall Accuracy
Random Forest
Gradient Boosting(100 Trees)
GLM
(100 Trees) 74%
75%
72%
SO, COACH PETE CARROLL…75% Accurate at predicting PASS / RUN*
*Assumes non-deflated footballs!
We’ll ‘play’ our model live on Super Bowl 32!