bc - 2012 upfront preview - may 2012

8/13/2019 BC - 2012 Upfront Preview - May 2012

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EQUITY RESEARCH 30 April 20

U.S. MEDIA

TV Upfronts: What Investors Should Expect

As the annual TV upfront ad-selling process gets underway, the tone of the US TV

advertising market remains fairly upbeat. We think this could be another strong

upfront, although it may not be as robust as last years. We estimate 2012-2013

broadcast TV upfront revenue will increase 4% y/y, and we think cable will fare slightly

better with dollar volume up 6% y/y.

We expect another strong upfrontCBS continues to have the best ratings story of

the broadcasters, which should support best-in-class pricing. We project CBS will lock

in CPM increases of +10%, ABC +8%, Fox +9%, and NBC +7%. We believe this year the

broadcasters will generally sell slightly less inventory in the upfront compared to the

historically high levels of sell-out from last year.

although it may be difficult to top last years upfront. This time last year, the

economic outlook was generally optimistic and broadcast scatter pricing was pacing an

impressive ~25-40% above 2010-2011 upfront levels. While sentiment has improved

year-to-date, we believe the set-up for this years upfront is not quite as favorable as

last years; macro uncertainty and European contagion risks remain, which could

modestly limit upside.

Auto advertising driving ad improvement. The seasonally adjusted annual rate

(SAAR) for light vehicle sales in the US has sequentially increased for eight straight

months from June of last year through February of this year; March SAAR of 14.4M,

while slightly down sequentially from February, was still a solid result. We believe thesedatapoints bode well for auto advertising since it is the largest category and represents

an estimated 20% of all network and cable TV advertising.

Digital newfronts involving online advertisers in the upfront conversation. For the

first time ever, several digital media firms including AOL, Google, Hulu, Microsoft, and

Yahoo! will be having upfront presentations, in hopes of accelerating the shift of ad

budgets to the internet. Some digital media firms are emulating the TV sales process by

selling gross ratings points and guaranteeing impressions for online ads, much in the

same way that is currently done with TV.

Tweaking up US ad forecast, driven by higher internet estimates.Owing largely to

the improved / not as bad as once thought macro outlook, we are taking the

opportunity to tweak up our 2012 US ad forecast to +4.6% y/y (from +4.0%). We have

raised our estimates the most for internet advertising and have also tweaked up our

political advertising estimates.

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies coveredin its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interestthat could affect the objectivity of this report.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 14.

INDUSTRY UPDATE

U.S. Media

2-NEUTRALUnchanged

U.S. Media

Anthony DiClemente, CFA

1.212.526.1341

[email protected]

BCI, New York

Bo Tang

1.212.526.9297

[email protected]

BCI, New York


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Barclays | U.S. Media

30 April 2012 2

2012-2013 Upfront Preview

The upfront process has already begun for some networksincluding those for The Disney

Channel, Nickelodeon, FX, Discovery, Scripps, and MTVwith the broadcasters upfront

presentations to take place during the week of May 14. While the annual TV upfront ad-

selling season should be viewed as only one indicator of the health of the broaderadvertising market, it is important to the networks as it allows them to book a significant

portion (75-80% for the broadcast networks, 50-60% for the cable networks) of their

inventory in advance.

We think that for the networks best positioned heading into the upfront, double-digit

CPM increases could be within reach. This is consistent with comments from CBS CEO Les

Moonves at a competitor conference in late February in which he predicted that CBS is

going to get double-digit increases in the upfront. On the cable side, Fox Cable ad sales

president Lou LaTorre predicted at the FX upfront in late March that the high end of the

cable market would secure CPM increases of 11-12%.1

Based on season-to-date ratings and current pricing in the scatter market, we estimate

upfront prime-time sales to increase 4.3% y/y to $9.49 billion for the big 4

broadcasters (ABC, CBS, FOX, and NBC) and 6.3% y/y to $9.88 billon for the cable TV

market.

Figure 1: 2012-2013 Upfront Calendar

February & March April May

Date Network City Date Network City Date Network City

Mar. 7 BBC America LA Apr. 3 Scripps Networks DAL May 1 NBCU Digital NewFront NYC

Mar. 8 Fox News Channel LA Apr. 4 Bravo NYC May 2 YouTube Brandcast NYC

Mar. 8 The Hub CHI Apr. 5 Discovery NYC May 3 Scripps Networks LA

Mar. 13 Disney Channel NYC Apr. 12 BET Networks LA May 9 A&E Networks NYC

Mar. 14 Nickelodeon NYC Apr. 16 BET Networks CHI May 14 NBC NYC

Mar. 15 NBC News/MSNBC NYC Apr. 18 BET Networks NYC May 14 Fox NYC

Mar. 15 The Hub LA Apr. 18 Scripps Networks CHI May 15 ESPN NYC

Mar. 19 ABC Family NYC Apr. 18 Style Network NYC May 15 Univision NYC

Mar. 20 Scripps Network BOS Apr. 19 Discovery LA May 15 ABC NYC

Mar. 20 IFC NYC Apr. 19 Hulu NewFront NYC May 15 Discovery U.S. Hispanic NYC

Mar. 21 Fox News Channel CHI Apr. 19 Bravo DAL May 15 Telemundo NYC

Mar. 22 AMC NYC Apr. 19 BBC America NYC May 16 Turner Broadcasting NYC

Mar. 22 Discovery CHI Apr. 19 Nickelodeon CHI May 16 NCM Media Networks NYC

Mar. 27 Scripps Network DET Apr. 23 Scripps Networks NYC May 16 Fox Hispanic Media NYC

Mar. 27 Nickelodeon LA Apr. 24 MSFT Ad Digital NYC May 16 CBS NYC

Mar. 28 Cartoon Network NYC Apr. 24 AOL Digital NewFront NYC May 17 The CW NYC

Mar. 29 Scripps Network MIN Apr. 24 Syfy NYC May 17 USA Network NYC

Mar. 29 BBC America CHI Apr. 25 Yahoo Digital NewFront NYC

Mar. 29 FX NYC Apr. 25 Bravo CHIApr. 25 Oxygen NYC

Apr. 26 DIS Interactive NewFront NYC

Apr. 26 MTV NYC

Apr. 30 Scripps Networks ATL

Apr. 30 E! NYC Source: CAB, Digital Content NewsFronts, MediaBizBloggers.

1Upfront and Center, Ad Week, 4/16/12.


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30 April 2012 3

We remind media investors that when looking at upfront statistics and trends, CPM

pricing is a more relevant indicator of projected advertising performance than sales /

dollar volume. One reason is that sell-out ratios obscure the Y/Y comparisons. Networks

have full control over inventory levels and can adjust how much inventory to sell in the

upfront market vs. hold back for the scatter market. Another reason is that scatter pricing

typically paces above upfront pricing, since advertisers must pay a premium for the

flexibility to purchase ad inventory later on in the scatter market, rather than upfront (the

only time in recent years when scatter paced below upfront pricing was in 2008, reflecting

concerns around the imminent downturn). Lastly, upfront contracts are cancellable.

Portions of the advertising contracts signed during the upfront season can be cancelled in

the 1st3rd calendar quarters. To be fair though, even though these cancellations dont

carry any formal penalty, the networks can disincentivize advertisers from exercising their

options by giving the ones who do cancel less favorable programming spots and charge

them more in the scatter market.

Broadcast TV upfront: CBS could be leading the pack again

We estimate 2012-2013 upfront dollar volume for the Big 4 (ABC, CBS, FOX, and NBC) toincrease to $9.49 billion, 4.3% above last years all-time high of $9.10 billion.

Figure 2: We estimate 2012-2013 upfront sales for the Big 4 (ABC, CBS, FOX, and NBC) to increase 4.3% Y/Y

Broadcast Network Prime-time Upfront Sales

ABC CBS FOX NBC Total "Big 4"

$in Billions Y/Y % $in Billions Y/Y % $in Billions Y/Y % $in Billions Y/Y % $in Billions Y/Y %

1992-93 $0.97 2.1% $1.10 10.0% $0.54 45.9% $1.05 (4.5%) 3.66 7.0%

1993-94 1.02 5.2% 1.04 (5.5%) 0.55 1.9% 0.92 (12.4%) 3.53 (3.6%)

1994-95 1.34 31.4% 1.21 16.3% 0.73 32.7% 1.21 31.5% 4.49 27.2%

1995-96 1.60 19.4% 1.30 7.4% 1.00 37.0% 1.70 40.5% 5.60 24.7%

1996-97 1.59 (0.6%) 1.18 (9.2%) 0.96 (4.0%) 2.01 18.2% 5.74 2.5%

1997-98 1.45 (8.8%) 1.20 1.7% 1.10 14.6% 2.15 7.0% 5.90 2.8%

1998-99 1.40 (3.4%) 1.15 (4.2%) 1.15 4.5% 2.10 (2.3%) 5.80 (1.7%)1999-00 1.70 21.4% 1.40 21.7% 1.30 13.0% 2.20 4.8% 6.60 13.8%

2000-01 2.45 44.1% 1.62 15.7% 1.30 0.0% 2.35 6.8% 7.72 17.0%

2001-02 1.60 (34.7%) 1.40 (13.6%) 1.30 0.0% 1.90 (19.1%) 6.20 (19.7%)

2002-03 1.50 (6.1%) 1.95 39.4% 1.30 (0.1%) 2.74 44.3% 7.50 20.9%

2003-04 1.70 13.0% 2.20 12.5% 1.60 23.5% 3.00 9.3% 8.49 13.3%

2004-05 1.60 (6.0%) 2.39 8.8% 1.60 0.1% 2.75 (8.2%) 8.34 (1.8%)

2005-06 2.10 31.2% 2.46 3.1% 1.59 (0.8%) 1.94 (29.6%) 8.09 (3.0%)

2006-07 2.21 5.5% 2.39 (3.2%) 1.62 1.7% 1.41 (26.9%) 7.63 (5.7%)

2007-08 2.36 6.8% 2.45 2.7% 1.81 11.8% 1.75 23.9% 8.37 9.8%

2008-09 2.50 5.8% 2.50 2.0% 1.95 7.8% 1.85 5.5% 8.80 5.1%

2009-10 1.90 (23.9%) 1.91 (23.6%) 1.61 (17.5%) 1.46 (20.9%) 6.88 (21.8%)

2010-11 2.40 26.2% 2.45 28.3% 1.98 23.1% 1.60 9.4% 8.43 22.5%

2011-12 2.50 4.2% 2.65 8.2% 2.20 11.1% 1.75 9.4% 9.10 7.9%

2012-13 $2.65 5.8% $2.92 10.0% $2.15 (2.1%) $1.78 1.4% $9.49 4.3%

Source: Media Week, SNL Kagan, Barclays Research.

Scatter pricing remains fairly resilient YTD

Upfront prices usually key off of scatter prices, and our upfront pricing assumptions reflect

management commentary on fairly robust 1Q scatter pacings (Figure 3). According to

comments from the February earnings season, scatter was pacing up in the mid-teens

(above upfront levels), which is particularly notable given the strong upfront from last year.

This year, we project CBS to lock in pricing increases of +10% Y/Y, ABC +8% Y/Y, FOX +9%

Y/Y, and NBC +7% (Figure 4).


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30 April 2012 4

Figure 3: Scatter market still relatively strong

Scatter Pricing (Above Upfront Levels)

1Q11 QTD Pacings 1Q12 QTD Pacings

ABC Up 30% Up "mid-teens"

CBS Up 40% Up "mid-teens"

Fox Up 25-40% At "a premium"NBC NA NA

Source: Company transcripts.

Figure 4: We project high single digit CPM increases in this years upfront

CPM Pricing increases

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13EABC 9.5% 9.0% 0.0% 8.3% 10.5% 8.0%

CBS 8.5% 8.0% (2.0%) 9.0% 13.5% 10.0%

FOX 8.0% 9.0% (2.0%) 8.3% 10.5% 9.0%NBC 5.0% 5.0% (7.0%) 6.5% 9.0% 7.0%

Weighted Average 7.9% 7.9% (2.5%) 8.2% 11.1% 8.7%Source: Ad Week, SNL Kagan, Barclays Research.

Upfront sell-out levels could be modestly below last years levels

We estimate that the Big 4 broadcasters (ABC, CBS, FOX, and NBC) will sell slightly less

inventory in this years upfront compared to the historically high sell-out levels from last

years upfront (Figure 5). We think that a network like CBS that is well-positioned going into

upfront negotiations will be able to maximize sell-out while maintaining substantial pricing

increases. On the other hand, a network like NBC, which has more holes in its schedule and

weaker ratings momentum, may seek to try and hold back more inventory in the hopes of

getting better rates later on in the scatter market. On the whole, we think sell-out is likely

lower this year as some advertisers may want to maintain some flexibility in case of

macro choppiness, as we saw in the second half of 2011.

Figure 5: We estimate sell-out levels to be down slightly versus last year

Primetime Upfront Inventory Sold2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13E

ABC 80.0% 80.0% 70.0% 75.0% 76.0% 76.0%

CBS 80.0% 78.0% 65.0% 78.0% 80.0% 80.0%FOX 74.0% 75.0% 65.0% 80.0% 80.0% 77.0%

NBC 77.5% 80.0% 70.0% 80.0% 80.0% 75.0%

Weighted Average 78.2% 78.3% 67.4% 78.0% 78.9% 77.3% Source: Ad Week, SNL Kagan, Barclays Research.


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30 April 2012 5

Broadcast upfront analysis by network: CBS should lead in dollar volume

We present our outlook for the 2012-2013 upfront by broadcast network below in Figure 6.

We have detailed our calculations in the tables below, but there are two key assumptions

that we wanted to specifically call out. The first is that as a proxy for estimating the

potential ratings shortfalls at a given network, we used the season-to-date change in TV

ratings for total U.S. households. Since the broadcast networks skew differently towardsvarious demos (CBS, for example, appeals towards older audiences, while Fox skews

towards younger audiences), we used total U.S. households as our target demo because it

encompassed the broadest reach. Another key assumption is that the broadcast networks

guarantee advertisers 2% ratings growth for spots sold in the 2012-2013 upfront. TV

networks typically guarantee a certain percentage increase in impressions to advertisers,

and we believe 2% ratings growth to be a reasonable assumption for the broadcasters.

While broadcast viewership growth has been tepid over the years, we believe the

broadcasters remain optimistic about their ratings trajectory and think this ratings erosion

will flatten out and potentially reverse. Also, ratings guarantees differ by network based on

various factors including perceived strength of programming line-up, competitiveness of

schedule on a given night, etc.


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Figure 6: We estimate CPM pricing increases of ~9% y/y and sell-out levels of ~77% for the Big 4

2012-2013 Upfront Sales By Broadcast Network

ABC Description

Total upfront sales from '11-'12 season ($B) $2.50 Per SNL Kagan, Ad Week

% of inventory sold in '11-'12 upfront 76% Per SNL Kagan, Ad Week

Upfront sales if 100% of inventory were sold ($B) $3.29 $2.50B / 76%

% change in ratings (4.2%) Y/Y change in Total HH season-to-date ratingsSales erosion from ratings shortfalls ($0.14) $3.29B x (1 4.2%) $3.29B

% growth in impressions from ratings guarantees 2% Barclays Research estimate

Sales uplift from increased impressions $0.07 $3.29B x (1 + 2.0%) $3.29B

% change in CPMs (cost per thousand) 8% Barclays Research estimate

Sales uplift from higher CPMs $0.26 $3.29B x (1 + 8.0%) $3.29B

Total upfront sales assuming 100% of inventory sold ($B) $3.48 $3.29B $0.14B + $0.07B + $0.26B

% of inventory sold in '12-'13 season 76% Barclays Research estimate

Total upfront sales based on 76% of inventory sold: $2.65 $3.48B x 76%

Y/Y % change in upfront sales 5.8% Y/Y change in upfront sales

CBS Description












Y/Y % change in upfront sales 10.0% Y/Y change in upfront sales

FOX Description












Y/Y % change in upfront sales (2.1%) Y/Y change in upfront sales

NBC Description




% change in ratings (0.8%) Y/Y change in Total HH season-to-date ratings

Sales erosion from ratings shortfalls ($0.02) $2.19B x (1 0.8%) $2.19B








Y/Y % change in upfront sales 1.4% Y/Y change in upfront sales Source: Media Week, SNL Kagan, Nielsen, Barclays Research.


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At the CBS network, we are modeling 10% y/y increases in CPM pricing, which is consistent

with CEO Les Moonves comments at a competitor conference in late February about

getting double digit increases in the upfront. While CBS ratings for total households in

the season-to-date are currently down 2.0%, they are the best-performing of the four major

broadcasters after adjusting for NBCs airing of the Super Bowl. CBS has very few holes in

its schedule. It continues to see strong ratings for its sitcoms including The Big Bang

Theory, How I Met Your Mother, Mike & Molly, and its newest hit Two Broke Girls.

Two and a Half Men has also held up remarkably well post-Sheen. The networks

dramasThe Good Wife, NCIS, and Criminal Mindshave continued to generate

solid ratings this season. In light of our expectation for 10% pricing increases given CBS

relative ratings outperformance (which gives us confidence in its pricing power), we think

that CBS will seek to maximize its sell-out levels. We estimate 80% sell-out this year, the

same level as last year.

At Disneys ABC network, we are modeling 8% Y/Y increases in CPM pricing. Season-to-

date, ABC ratings have been down 4.2%. Although some of the networks franchises are

aging (Greys Anatomy, Desperate Housewives), ABC continues to find success with

Dancing with the Stars andModern Family. Happy Endings has also become a breakout hit

this season, and Once Upon a Timehas quietly kept up in the ratings race. We assume that

ABC sells 76% of its inventory this year, same as last year.

At News Corps Fox network, we are modeling 9% Y/Y increases in CPM pricing. We think

Fox goes into the upfront slightly less well-positioned than in prior years. The network hasbeen #1 in 18-49 for seven consecutive seasons, but its ability to capture the 18-49 ratings

crown this season could be in question. This is partly due to ratings softness from

American Idol, which we estimate contributes roughly one-third of Foxs gross ratings

points in an average week. However, many of Foxs other shows have performed well,

including its newest hit sitcom New Girl. Also, Fox is comping against the 2011 Super Bowl

this year, which somewhat obscures ratings trends. We estimate that the network will hold

back slightly more inventory in the upfront and sell 77%, below the 80% it sold last year.

Figure 7: 11-12 Season-to-Date Live Ratings Total HH Figure 8: 10-11 Season-to-Date Live Ratings Total HH

(4.2%)(2.0%)

(9.3%)

(0.8%)

(25.0%)

(20.0%)

(15.0%)

(10.0%)

(5.0%)

0.0%

5.0%

ABC CBS FOX NBC

(6.0%) (5.7%)

(8.6%)

(19.0%)

(25.0%)

(20.0%)

(15.0%)

(10.0%)

(5.0%)

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

ABC CBS FOX NBC

Source: Nielsen Media Research.Note: Season-to-date defined as 9/25/11 to 4/22/12. Source: Nielsen Media Research.Note: Season-to-date defined as 9/26/10 to 4/24/11.


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At Comcasts NBC network, we are modeling 8% Y/Y increases in CPM pricing. NBC ratings

in the season-to-date are down -1.0%, the lowest decline of the major broadcasters,

although this is helped by NBCs carriage of the Super Bowl this past February. We think

NBC will try to hold back more of its inventory for the scatter market in the hopes that

ratings trends will improve. We estimate NBC to sell 75% of its ads in the upfront as

opposed to 80% last year.

Cable TV Upfront: Could be up in the mid-to-high single digits

A decade ago, the 1992-1993 cable TV upfront was only $0.81 billion in size, representing

18% of total upfront dollars. Last year, total cable TV upfront revenues surpassed that of

broadcast for the first time in history, with cable upfront dollar volume representing 51% of

total upfront commitments. For this year, we estimate cable to retain its 51% share of the

upfront, equating to a total upfront haul of $9.88 billion, or 6.3% y/y growth.

As cable penetration approaches that of broadcast, cables upfront dollar volume has

caught up with that of broadcast as well. While cable networks typically sell less inventory

in the upfront than broadcast networks do (50-60% for cable vs. 70-80% for broadcast),

the cable TV upfront has nevertheless become as important as the broadcast TV upfront.

Figure 9: We estimate Cable TV to maintain its share of upfront dollars committed

Cable Network Upfront Sales

Cable Cable as % of

$in Billions Y/Y % Total Upfront

1992-93 $0.81 8.0% 18%

1993-94 0.90 11.1% 20%

1994-95 1.11 23.3% 20%

1995-96 1.67 50.5% 23%

1996-97 1.97 18.0% 26%

1997-98 2.29 16.2% 28%

1998-99 2.72 18.8% 32%

1999-00 3.60 32.4% 35%2000-01 4.75 31.9% 38%

2001-02 4.03 (15.2%) 39%

2002-03 4.60 14.1% 38%

2003-04 5.35 16.3% 39%

2004-05 6.23 16.4% 43%

2005-06 6.54 5.0% 45%

2006-07 6.60 0.9% 46%

2007-08 7.00 6.1% 46%

2008-09 7.60 8.6% 46%

2009-10 6.73 (11.4%) 49%

2010-11 8.00 18.9% 49%

2011-12 9.29 16.1% 51%

2012-13 $9.88 6.3% 51%

Source: SNL Kagan, Barclays Research.


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30 April 2012 9

Auto advertising driving ad improvement

The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for light vehicle sales in the US has sequentially

increased for eight straight months from June of last year through February of this year;

March SAAR of 14.4M, while slightly down sequentially from February, was still a solid

result. Barclays Autos & Auto Parts analyst Brian Johnson recently raised his US SAARestimate to 14.4M for the full-year, which implies approximately 13% y/y growth (for more

info, please see his 3/2/12 note, February sales continues surge; raising 2012 SAAR

forecast to 14.4mn on strong fundamentals). Bigger picture, SAAR still remains below the

peak levels of 16M-17M reached in 2005-2007. We believe these data points bode well for

auto advertising since it is the largest category and represents an estimated 20% of all

network and cable TV advertising.

Figure 10: SAAR improved sequentially for eight straight months from June 2011 February 2012

13.0 13.1

11.7 11.512.2 12.2

13.1 13.2 13.6 13.6 14.2

15.1

14.4

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Mar-

11

Apr-1

1

May

-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-1

1

Nov-1

1

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-

12

Mar-

12

US Light Vehicle SAAR

Source: Barclays Research.Note: SAAR in millions.

Digital newfronts joining the upfront conversation

For the first time ever, several digital media firms including AOL, Google, Hulu, Microsoft,

and Yahoo! will be having upfront presentations of their owncalled newfrontsin

hopes of accelerating the shift of ad budgets to the internet. (We attended Hulus newfront

a couple of weeks ago; please see our 4/19/12 note Hulu Upfront Highlights Increasing

Focus on Originals for more info.)

Some digital media firms are emulating the TV sales process by selling gross ratings points

and guaranteeing impressions for online ads, much in the same way that is currently donewith TV. While its unclear how much upfront commitments these digital newfronts will

generate, we think they are emblematic of digital media playing a larger role in advertising

budgeting and planning.

Some advertisers have already indicated their plans to increase advertising spending on

online video. According to a recent Wall Street Journal article2, GM plans to increase its

digital ad spend by 3-5% this year, using its TV and print ad budgets to fund the new digital

expenditures, which will be mostly in online video. Samsung Mobile plans to take 30% of its

2Online Video Turns Up Heat, Wall Street Journal, 4/23/12.


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30 April 2012 10

upfront money and put it into online video. If nothing else, some advertisers believe the

added option of buying online ads gives them added leverage in its negotiations with the TV

networks.

Tweaking up US ad forecast owing largely to higher internet

estimatesWe are tweaking up our U.S. advertising forecast to +4.6% Y/Y (from +4.0% Y/Y) in

2012E and to +2.3% Y/Y (from +1.6% Y/Y) in 2013E. Our estimates are driven primarily

by higher internet estimates (where we are raising our estimates by ~500 bps in 2012 and

2013) and a slightly higher political advertising forecast, offset by lower traditional/print

media estimates.

Within internet, we have raised our online ad forecast following the release of the Interactive

Advertising Bureaus 2011 results. The reported results came in above our expectations,

with paid search and mobile driving much of the upside. The desktop-based search market

continues to see solid volume growth, even in light of the rapid proliferation of mobile

devices and mobile search, as we believe the mobile market is in large part incremental to

PC-based search. This is also the first time that the IAB has explicitly disclosed mobile

online advertising revenue, which is recording impressive growth as advertisers continue to

seek ways to reach audiences on mobile devices. While there have been some concerns

around the ability to achieve similar CPCs and CPMs on mobile as on PC, the volume growth

in mobile has served to offset softness in pricing, and we believe we are still in the very early

innings here. While the display market recorded weaker overall growth than we had

projected in 2011, we continue to forecast robust growth in certain formats such as Digital

Video, which we believe is becoming an increasingly attractive brand advertising platform

for large advertisers.

Within political, we had previously written about how this year would be a record election

season for political advertising as two judicial decisions in 2010 essentially lifted restrictions

on corporate spending for federal candidate elections, giving way to the rise of super PACs

(for more info, please see our 1/31/12 note, Does Political Advertising Drive Media

Stocks?). But the impact of these super PACs has been larger than we expected. Not only

do these court decisions allow the PACs to raise and spend unlimited amounts of

contributions, but the PACs must also pay full-fare / market rates for the ads it purchases,

another positive for political advertisers. Its important to point out that the candidates can

purchase political ad spots at discounted rates (called the lowest available rate), but if the

money comes from a PAC, then it must pay the market rate. As a result of all of these

factors, we are tweaking up our 2012 political advertising estimate.

Our estimate changes are summarized in Figure 11. Feel free to email us for the detailed

model.


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30 April 2012 11

Figure 11: Barclays Advertising Forecast, Current vs. Prior (2012E-2013E)

Current 2012E Prior 2012E (in bps)National Broadcast TV (including Olympics) (1) 9.2% 9.1% +0 bps

Local Broadcast TV (including political) 15.4% 15.3% +10 bps

National Cable TV 7.5% 7.5% +0 bps

Internet (local & national) 18.3% 13.6% +470 bps

Outdoor 2.9% 2.9% +0 bpsRadio 0.4% 0.4% +0 bps

Magazines (1.7%) (0.5%) (120 bps)

Direct Mail (7.0%) (7.0%) +0 bps

Newspapers (7.7%) (6.7%) (100 bps)

Directories (18.0%) (17.0%) (100 bps)

Total U.S. Advertising (incl. political & Olympics) 4.6% 4.0% +60 bps

Total U.S. Advertising (excl. political & Olympics) 3.1% 2.5% +60 bps

Current 2013E Prior 2013E (in bps)National Broadcast TV (including Olympics) (1) (1.0%) (1.1%) +20 bps

Local Broadcast TV (including political) (6.7%) (6.1%) (60 bps)

National Cable TV 8.0% 8.0% +0 bps

Internet (local & national) 17.3% 12.3% +500 bps

Outdoor 3.6% 3.6% +0 bps

Radio 1.3% 1.3% +0 bps

Magazines (1.7%) (1.0%) (70 bps)Direct Mail (6.0%) (5.0%) (100 bps)

Newspapers (6.8%) (4.8%) (200 bps)

Directories (16.0%) (12.0%) (400 bps)

Total U.S. Advertising (incl. political & Olympics) 2.3% 1.6% +70 bps

Total U.S. Advertising (excl. political & Olympics) 3.9% 3.1% +80 bps

Source: Barclays Research.(1) English networks only.


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30 April 2012 12

Figure 12: Barclays Annual U.S. Advertising Spending Forecast (2008A-2013E)

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E '11-'14 CAGR

Newspapers (Local / National) $34,740 $24,821 $22,795 $20,728 $19,132 $17,826 (6.6%)

Annual Growth / Decline (17.7%) (28.6%) (8.2%) (9.1%) (7.7%) (6.8%)

Radio (Local / National) $17,756 $14,303 $14,992 $15,039 $15,092 $15,286 0.9%

Annual Growth / Decline (9.9%) (19.4%) 4.8% 0.3% 0.4% 1.3%

Outdoor $6,991 $5,901 $6,143 $6,389 $6,572 $6,806 3.3%


Online $23,448 $22,661 $26,041 $31,796 $37,629 $44,126 17.3%

Annual Growth / Decline 10.6% (3.4%) 14.9% 22.1% 18.3% 17.3%

Magazines $19,533 $15,554 $15,573 $15,463 $15,208 $14,949 (1.5%)

Annual Growth / Decline (6.9%) (20.4%) 0.1% (0.7%) (1.7%) (1.7%)

Directories $11,195 $8,956 $6,890 $5,436 $4,456 $3,743 (15.4%)

Annual Growth / Decline (10.1%) (20.0%) (23.1%) (21.1%) (18.0%) (16.0%)

Direct Mail $23,459 $19,853 $20,600 $20,469 $19,041 $17,899 (6.0%)

Annual Growth / Decline (5.8%) (15.4%) 3.8% (0.6%) (7.0%) (6.0%)

Network Television $13,604 $12,889 $12,989 $13,318 $13,896 $14,397 3.8% Annual Growth / Decline (5.7%) (5.3%) 0.8% 2.5% 4.3% 3.6%

Cable Television $22,356 $21,472 $24,168 $26,241 $28,239 $30,408 7.4%

Annual Growth / Decline 4.1% (4.0%) 12.6% 8.6% 7.6% 7.7%

Local Broadcast Television $16,090 $13,762 $14,851 $15,099 $15,725 $16,244 3.5%


Other Television $2,991 $2,784 $2,961 $3,106 $3,401 $3,596 7.0%


Total Television $55,042 $50,907 $54,970 $57,765 $61,261 $64,645 5.6%


TOTAL EXCL. POLITICAL & OLYMPICS $192,164 $162,955 $168,003 $173,084 $178,390 $185,279 3.8%


TOTAL ADVERTISING $194,529 $163,410 $170,751 $173,661 $181,677 $185,938 4.3%


Total Advertising as a % of GDP 1.36% 1.17% 1.18% 1.15% 1.15% 1.12% Source: MAGNA, Barclays Research.Note: Dollars in millions.

Note: The Nielsen material contained in this report represents Nielsen estimates and does

not represent fact. Nielsen has neither reviewed nor approved this report and/or any of the

statements made herein.


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30 April 2012

ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S)

I, Anthony DiClemente, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any orall of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectlyrelated to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

Barclays Research is a part of the Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates (collectively and eachindividually, "Barclays"). For current important disclosures regarding companies that are the subject of this research report, please send a writtenrequest to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 17th Floor, New York, NY 10019 or refer to http://publicresearch.barcap.com orcall 212-526-1072.

The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's totalrevenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.

Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from acceptingpayment or reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.

In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer tohttps://live.barcap.com/publiccp/RSR/nyfipubs/disclaimer/disclaimer-research-dissemination.html.

The Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays produces a variety of research products including, but not limited to, fundamentalanalysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ

from recommendations contained in other types of research products, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, orotherwise.

Primary Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)

CBS Corp. (CBS, 27-Apr-2012, USD 34.33), 2-Equal Weight/2-Neutral

CBS Corp. (CBSA, 27-Apr-2012, USD 34.72), 2-Equal Weight/2-Neutral

News Corporation (NWSA, 27-Apr-2012, USD 19.58), 2-Equal Weight/2-Neutral

News Corporation (NWS, 27-Apr-2012, USD 19.87), 2-Equal Weight/2-Neutral

Walt Disney Co. (DIS, 27-Apr-2012, USD 43.35), 2-Equal Weight/2-Neutral

Guide to the Barclays Fundamental Equity Research Rating System:

Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as 1-Overweight, 2-Equal Weight or 3-Underweight (see definitionsbelow) relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry sector (the "sectorcoverage universe").

In addition to the stock rating, we provide sector views which rate the outlook for the sector coverage universe as 1-Positive, 2-Neutral or 3-Negative (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system. Investorsshould carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.

Stock Rating

1-Overweight- The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-monthinvestment horizon.

2-Equal Weight- The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.

3-Underweight- The stock is expected to underperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-monthinvestment horizon.

RS-Rating Suspended- The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily due to market events that made coverage impracticable orto comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including where the Corporate and Investment BankingDivision of Barclays is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.

Sector View

1-Positive- sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are improving.

2-Neutral- sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating.

3-Negative- sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are deteriorating.

Below is the list of companies that constitute the "sector coverage universe":

U.S. Media

AMC Networks (AMCX) CBS Corp. (CBS) CBS Corp. (CBSA)

Cinemark Holdings Inc. (CNK) Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings (CCO) Discovery Communications Inc. (DISCA)

DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (DWA) Interpublic Group of Companies Inc. (IPG) Lamar Advertising Co. (LAMR)


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30 April 2012


National Cinemedia Inc. (NCMI) News Corporation (NWSA) News Corporation (NWS)

Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) Regal Entertainment Group (RGC) Scripps Networks Interactive, Inc. (SNI)

Time Warner Inc. (TWX) Viacom Inc. (VIAB) Viacom Inc. (VIA)

Walt Disney Co. (DIS)

Distribution of Ratings:

Barclays Equity Research has 2308 companies under coverage.

42% have been assigned a 1-Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Buy rating; 54% ofcompanies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

42% have been assigned a 2-Equal Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 49% ofcompanies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

13% have been assigned a 3-Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 39% ofcompanies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

Guide to the Barclays Research Price Target:

Each analyst has a single price target on the stocks that they cover. The price target represents that analyst's expectation of where the stock willtrade in the next 12 months. Upside/downside scenarios, where provided, represent potential upside/potential downside to each analyst's price

target over the same 12-month period.Barclays offices involved in the production of equity research:

London

Barclays Bank PLC (Barclays, London)

New York

Barclays Capital Inc. (BCI, New York)

Tokyo

Barclays Capital Japan Limited (BCJL, Tokyo)

So Paulo

Banco Barclays S.A. (BBSA, So Paulo)

Hong Kong

Barclays Bank PLC, Hong Kong branch (Barclays Bank, Hong Kong)

Toronto

Barclays Capital Canada Inc. (BCCI, Toronto)

Johannesburg

Absa Capital, a division of Absa Bank Limited (Absa Capital, Johannesburg)

Mexico City

Barclays Bank Mexico, S.A. (BBMX, Mexico City)

Taiwan

Barclays Capital Securities Taiwan Limited (BCSTW, Taiwan)

Seoul

Barclays Capital Securities Limited (BCSL, Seoul)

Mumbai

Barclays Securities (India) Private Limited (BSIPL, Mumbai)

Singapore

Barclays Bank PLC, Singapore branch (Barclays Bank, Singapore)


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30 April 2012


CBS Corp. (CBS) Stock Rating Sector View

USD 34.33 (27-Apr-2012) 2-EQUAL WEIGHT 2-NEUTRAL

Rating and Price Target Chart - USD (as of 27-Apr-2012) Currency=USD

Date Closing Price Rating Price Target

16-Apr-2012 32.31 32.00

04-Nov-2011 25.18 31.00

04-May-2011 27.21 30.00

25-Mar-2011 24.67 25.00

17-Feb-2011 22.35 23.00

05-Nov-2010 17.01 21.00

04-Aug-2010 15.64 19.00

23-Apr-2010 16.48 18.00

03-Feb-2010 13.75 17.00

06-Nov-2009 12.72 13.00

11-Sep-2009 11.76 12.00

11-Aug-2009 10.59 11.00

Clos ing Pr i ce Target Pr i ce Rat ing Change

Jul- 09 Jan- 10 Jul- 10 Jan- 11 Jul- 11 Jan- 12

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

15-May-2009 6.70 2-Equal Weight 9.00

Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting

Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker and/or liquidity provider in securities issued by CBS Corp. or one of its affiliates.

Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the securities of CBS Corp..

Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from CBS Corp. within the past 12 months.

CBS Corp. is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC and/oran affiliate.

Barclays Capital Inc., through Barclays Market Makers, is a Designated Market Maker in CBS Corp. stock, which is listed on the New York StockExchange. At any given time, its associated Designated Market Maker may have "long" or "short" inventory position in the stock; and itsassociated Designated Market Maker may be on the opposite side of orders executed on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in the stock.

Valuation Methodology:Our $32 price target represents a 2012E P/E multiple of 13.7x on $2.35 of EPS. Our sum-of-the-parts valuation model isbased on a target EBITDA multiple of 9.0x. Segment multiples are based upon comparable public market and private market multiples ofcomparable companies and segments. Valuation is also supported by a discounted cash flow analysis.

Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Price Target: Risks include: 1) Slowdown in local and national advertising;2) Continued significant declines in radio listenership; 3) Increased secular shift of viewers to cable television from the national broadcastnetworks and local station affiliates.
https://live.barcap.com/go/NYF/flex/equity/EquityChart.jsp?ticker=CBS&legend=CBS%20Corp.&shortlegend=CBS&currency=USD&enddate=20120427&begindate=20110427&userId=tangbo1&appName=RPShttps://live.barcap.com/go/NYF/flex/equity/EquityChart.jsp?ticker=CBS&legend=CBS%20Corp.&shortlegend=CBS&currency=USD&enddate=20120427&begindate=20110427&userId=tangbo1&appName=RPS


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30 April 2012


CBS Corp. (CBS/A / CBSA) Stock Rating Sector View




16-Apr-2012 33.15 32.00

04-Nov-2011 25.57 31.00

04-May-2011 27.32 30.00

17-Feb-2011 22.52 23.00

Closing Price Target Price


5

10

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35

05-Nov-2010 16.97 21.00


Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker and/or liquidity provider in securities issued by CBS Corp. or one of its affiliates.

Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the securities of CBS Corp..

Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from CBS Corp. within the past 12 months.

CBS Corp. is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC and/oran affiliate.

Barclays Capital Inc., through Barclays Market Makers, is a Designated Market Maker in CBS Corp. stock, which is listed on the New York StockExchange. At any given time, its associated Designated Market Maker may have "long" or "short" inventory position in the stock; and itsassociated Designated Market Maker may be on the opposite side of orders executed on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in the stock.

Valuation Methodology:Our $32 price target represents a 2012E P/E multiple of 13.7x on $2.35 of EPS. Our sum-of-the-parts valuation model isbased on a target EBITDA multiple of 9.0x. Segment multiples are based upon comparable public market and private market multiples ofcomparable companies and segments. Valuation is also supported by a discounted cash flow analysis.

Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Price Target: Risks include: 1) Slowdown in local and national advertising;2) Continued significant declines in radio listenership; 3) Increased secular shift of viewers to cable television from the national broadcastnetworks and local station affiliates.
https://live.barcap.com/go/NYF/flex/equity/EquityChart.jsp?ticker=CBSA&legend=CBS%20Corp.&shortlegend=CBSA&currency=USD&enddate=20120427&begindate=20110427&userId=tangbo1&appName=RPShttps://live.barcap.com/go/NYF/flex/equity/EquityChart.jsp?ticker=CBSA&legend=CBS%20Corp.&shortlegend=CBSA&currency=USD&enddate=20120427&begindate=20110427&userId=tangbo1&appName=RPS


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30 April 2012


News Corporation (NWS/A / NWSA) Stock Rating Sector View




09-Feb-2012 19.21 22.00

04-Mar-2011 17.60 20.00

23-Apr-2010 16.12 18.00

03-Feb-2010 13.67 16.00

28-Jan-2010 12.52 15.00

05-Nov-2009 11.94 14.00

15-May-2009 8.60 12.00



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07-May-2009 9.45 11.00


Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker and/or liquidity provider in securities issued by News Corporation or one of its affiliates.

Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from News Corporation in the past 12 months.

Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the securities of News Corporation.

Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from News Corporation within the past 12months.

News Corporation is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.

News Corporation is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLCand/or an affiliate.

Valuation Methodology:Our $22 target price is based on 14.2x our CY2012E EPS of $1.55. This implies a 6.2x EV/EBITDA and 5.9% FCF yield.Our target price is also supported by sum-of-the-parts and DCF analysis.

Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Price Target: News Corp's revenues and earnings are very dependent onthe performance of its Fox assets given that the latter contributes roughly 60% of News Corp's consolidated group revenues and 70% of itsoperating profits. Global advertising markets have a significant effect on News Corp's earnings as close to half of the group's revenues areadvertising based.
https://live.barcap.com/go/NYF/flex/equity/EquityChart.jsp?ticker=NWSA&legend=News%20Corporation&shortlegend=NWSA&currency=USD&enddate=20120427&begindate=20110427&userId=tangbo1&appName=RPShttps://live.barcap.com/go/NYF/flex/equity/EquityChart.jsp?ticker=NWSA&legend=News%20Corporation&shortlegend=NWSA&currency=USD&enddate=20120427&begindate=20110427&userId=tangbo1&appName=RPS


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30 April 2012


News Corporation (NWS) Stock Rating Sector View




09-Feb-2012 19.96 22.00



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04-Mar-2011 18.72 20.00


Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker and/or liquidity provider in securities issued by News Corporation or one of its affiliates.

Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from News Corporation in the past 12 months.

Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the securities of News Corporation.

Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from News Corporation within the past 12months.

News Corporation is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.

News Corporation is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLCand/or an affiliate.

Valuation Methodology:Our $22 target price is based on 14.2x our CY2012E EPS of $1.55. This implies a 6.2x EV/EBITDA and 5.9% FCF yield.Our target price is also supported by sum-of-the-parts and DCF analysis.

Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Price Target: News Corp's revenues and earnings are very dependent onthe performance of its Fox assets given that the latter contributes roughly 60% of News Corp's consolidated group revenues and 70% of itsoperating profits. Global advertising markets have a significant effect on News Corp's earnings as close to half of the group's revenues areadvertising based.
https://live.barcap.com/go/NYF/flex/equity/EquityChart.jsp?ticker=NWS&legend=News%20Corporation&shortlegend=NWS&currency=USD&enddate=20120427&begindate=20110427&userId=tangbo1&appName=RPShttps://live.barcap.com/go/NYF/flex/equity/EquityChart.jsp?ticker=NWS&legend=News%20Corporation&shortlegend=NWS&currency=USD&enddate=20120427&begindate=20110427&userId=tangbo1&appName=RPS


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30 April 2012


Walt Disney Co. (DIS) Stock Rating Sector View




10-Jan-2012 39.63 2-Equal Weight

10-Aug-2011 31.54 44.00

23-Mar-2011 42.24 52.00

09-Feb-2011 43.36 50.00

01-Feb-2011 39.88 46.00

08-Oct-2010 34.51 42.00

04-Dec-2009 30.84 36.00

21-Sep-2009 28.00 34.00

Clos ing Pr i ce Target Pr i ce Rat ing Change


15

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30

35

40

45

50

55

06-May-2009 25.87 1-Overweight 32.00


Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker and/or liquidity provider in securities issued by Walt Disney Co. or one of its affiliates.

Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Walt Disney Co. in the past 12 months.

Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the securities of Walt Disney Co..

Walt Disney Co. is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.

Barclays Capital Inc., through Barclays Market Makers, is a Designated Market Maker in Walt Disney Co. stock, which is listed on the New YorkStock Exchange. At any given time, its associated Designated Market Maker may have "long" or "short" inventory position in the stock; and itsassociated Designated Market Maker may be on the opposite side of orders executed on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in the stock.

Valuation Methodology:Our target price of $44 is based on a 14.2x multiple of our CY2012E EPS of $3.09. Our price target is also supportedthrough sum-of-the parts and DCF analysis.

Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Price Target: Disney's theme park operations are sensitive to economiccycles. The recessionary environment could result in weaker advertising revenue for the ABC network and ABC TV station groups. Deterioratingconsumer confidence could impede the consumer's ability to spend on Disney vacations, impact advertising trends at ABC & ESPN, and/orimpact Consumer Products. Disney could struggle to produce successful movie/TV content. And finally, Disney could be vulnerable to thestructural shift of media properties from TV to the internet.
https://live.barcap.com/go/NYF/flex/equity/EquityChart.jsp?ticker=DIS&legend=Walt%20Disney%20Co.&shortlegend=DIS&currency=USD&enddate=20120427&begindate=20110427&userId=tangbo1&appName=RPShttps://live.barcap.com/go/NYF/flex/equity/EquityChart.jsp?ticker=DIS&legend=Walt%20Disney%20Co.&shortlegend=DIS&currency=USD&enddate=20120427&begindate=20110427&userId=tangbo1&appName=RPS


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(Licence No.: 13/952/2008, Registered Office: Al Jazira Towers, Hamdan Street, PO Box 2734, Abu Dhabi).

Barclays Bank PLC in the Qatar Financial Centre (Registered No. 00018) is authorised by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority (QFCRA). Barclays Bank PLC-QFC Branch may only undertake the regulated activities that fall within the scope of its existing QFCRA licence. Principal place of business in Qatar: Qatar FinanciaCentre, Office 1002, 10th Floor, QFC Tower, Diplomatic Area, West Bay, PO Box 15891, Doha, Qatar. Related financial products or services are only available to BusinessCustomers as defined by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority.

This material is distributed in the UAE (including the Dubai International Financial Centre) and Qatar by Barclays Bank PLC.

This material is distributed in Saudi Arabia by Barclays Saudi Arabia ('BSA'). It is not the intention of the publication to be used or deemed as recommendation, option or

advice for any action (s) that may take place in future. Barclays Saudi Arabia is a Closed Joint Stock Company, (CMA License No. 09141-37). Registered office AFaisaliah Tower, Level 18, Riyadh 11311, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Authorised and regulated by the Capital Market Authority, Commercial Registration Number1010283024.

This material is distributed in Russia by OOO Barclays Capital, affiliated company of Barclays Bank PLC, registered and regulated in Russia by the FSFM. Broker License#177-11850-100000; Dealer License #177-11855-010000. Registered address in Russia: 125047 Moscow, 1st Tverskaya-Yamskaya str. 21.

This material is distributed in Singapore by the Singapore branch of Barclays Bank PLC, a bank licensed in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Formatters in connection with this report, recipients in Singapore may contact the Singapore branch of Barclays Bank PLC, whose registered address is One Raffles QuayLevel 28, South Tower, Singapore 048583.

Barclays Bank PLC, Australia Branch (ARBN 062 449 585, AFSL 246617) is distributing this material in Australia. It is directed at 'wholesale clients' as defined byAustralian Corporations Act 2001.

IRS Circular 230 Prepared Materials Disclaimer: Barclays does not provide tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed to be tax advice. Please beadvised that any discussion of U.S. tax matters contained herein (including any attachments) (i) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by you for thepurpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties; and (ii) was written to support the promotion or marketing of the transactions or other matters addressed herein.Accordingly, you should seek advice based on your particular circumstances from an independent tax advisor.

Copyright Barclays Bank PLC (2012). All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any manner without the prior written permission ofBarclays. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England No. 1026167. Registered office 1 Churchill Place, London, E14 5HP. Additional information regarding thispublication will be furnished upon request.


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