bb tour anz 2017 - predicting student success
TRANSCRIPT
Chris Eske Analytics Specialist APAC
Feb 2017
Predicting Student Success
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Answering one Critical Question Now
• What is the likelihood that a student will achieve a C or better grade?
• What is likelihood that a student will attend class next week?
Retention Rates in Australia
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• University of Divinity 95.5%
• XXXX University 73%
Student Success Return on Investment Calculator Current Full Time Student Numbers 25,000 Income per Student per annum $13,566*Current Retention Rate 95.00% Target Retention Rate 96.00% Increased Revenue $6,783,000 Note: Assumes two years of lost revenue per unsuccessful student
*Derived from Higher Education Research, Facts and Figures November 2015
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Blackboard Predict
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Predictive modeling overview
ProblemWhat is the question you are trying to answer?
IngestAggregate the data from multiple sources
ModelingTurn the data into valuable info (answer the question)
DistributePut the valuable info in the hands of those who can act on it
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Blackboard Predict
How it works• Aggregate student activity data
• Present risk report to faculty/advisors
Predictive Model• Current class activity from LMS
• Past student information from SIS
• Can include data from other sources: Portfolio, ebook/content, response systems
LMS/SIS
Alerts & reports
ActivityData analysis
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Sample model outputFeatures and weights
Week Zero Model Weekly Model
Current GPACourse add weeks prior
Transfer creditsEFC
Percent of classes passedEthnicity
Class loadAcademic year
Course modality
.00 .02 .04 .06 .08 .10 .12 .14 .16
Earned over attempted
Number of page views
Earned over possible
Percent of classes passed
Days since last page view
Posts to faculty
.00 .10 .20 .30 .40
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Who could intervene?
InstructorChannelLMS – visualizations
MessageProvide triage/assistance to the students who are at risk
StudentChannelLMS – visualizations
MessageCompare to average; project grades
Advisor/CounselorChannelCRM – tasksorPortal – visualizations
MessageThese are your students who need the most help
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Faculty and students Advisors (with CRM) Advisors (Portal)
Send results to the user
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Advisor dashboard
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Predict – a three month go live