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Bay/Bakool Gu 2011 17 th August, 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC Slide 2 FS Field Analysts travelled to all districts for data collection of crop, livestock and markets information Food security information was obtained through key informant and household focus group discussions Gu 2011 Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations Bay and Bakool Slide 3 Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income Bay Region : 2 Agropastoral Livelihoods (Bay Agropastoral High Potential, Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low Potential) Primary sources of income of poor: self- employment, employment, sale of livestock & livestock products and sale of crops. Primary sources of food of poor: own production and food purchase Primary livelihood asset of poor: land, cattle, sheep/goats Slide 4 Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income Bakool Region : 1. Pastoral Livelihood (Southern Inland Pastoral) Primary income sources of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products Primary food sources of poor: food purchase Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, sheep/goat and cattle 2. Agropastoral Livelihoods (Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low Potential and Bakool Agropastoral) Bay-Bakool Agropastoral: Main sources of income: the combination of agricultural labour, self- employment (firewood, charcoal and lime) and sale of livestock & livestock products. Main sources of food: own production (crop and livestock products) and purchase. Bakool Agropastoral is predominantly pastoral. Main sources of income: livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment (bush products) and agricultural labour. Main sources of food: purchase and own production. Slide 5 Climate Performance of the Gu 2011 Rainfall Overall statement: Climate was unfavourable in Bay and Bakool regions. Rainfall performance in terms of intensity, duration, distribution and coverage over time was below normal in both regions. Start of Gu rains: Effectively started in third dekad of April and interrupted by a long dry spell in the first two dekads of May; restarted in the third dekad of May but ended early in all livelihoods. Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Most areas of Bakool received 20-60% of normal, with the exception of small pockets, which received 60-120%. The satellite imagery data indicating 140- 180% of normal rainfall in east of Tieglow has not been confirmed through ground truthing. Most of Bay regions received 40-80% of normal rainfall. Slide 6 Climate Vegetation Conditions - Bay NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district & land cover Slide 7 Climate Vegetation Conditions - Bakool NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district & land cover Slide 8 Civil Insecurity Civil Security Situation: The overall civil security situation in Bay and Bakool agropastoral areas were relatively stable. However, in El Berde and Yeed in Rabdhure district (Bakool) is unstable due to recurrent political confrontations between the armed oppositions and the TFG. Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: Limited pastoral mobility. Restricted cross-border trade with Ethiopia. Disruptions of trade affecting both rural and urban areas. Slide 9 Agriculture Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates Bay region Districts Gu 2011 Production in MT Total Cereal Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2010 Gu 2011 as % of Gu PWA (1995-2010) Gu 2011 as % of 5 year average (2006-2010) MaizeSorghum Baydhaba 2553,6003,85514%27%29% Buur Hakaba 01,692 12%25%28% Diinsoor 451,0001,0456%12%11% Qansax Dheere 608008605%9%10% Bay Gu 2011 Total 3607,0927,45210%19%20% Slide 10 Agriculture Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates Bakool Region Districts Gu 2011 Production in MT Total Cereal Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2010 Gu 2011 as % of Gu PWA (1995-2010) Gu 2011 as % of 5 year average (2006-2010) MaizeSorghum Ceel Barde 0000% Rabdhure 021 7%15%26% Tayeglow 3014817810%18%31% Wajid 035 3%9%12% Xudur 2310612912%22%41% Bakool Gu 2011 Total 533103639%17%29% Slide 11 Agriculture Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates Bay Cowpea, Sesame, Groundnuts Production Estimates Districts Gu 2010 Production in MTGu 2011 Production in MT CowpeaSesameGroundnutsCowpeaSesameGroundnuts Baydhaba 6,0009201,925000 Buur Hakaba 2,4001200000 Diinsoor 2,760420300000 Qansax Dheere 1,7251,0351,050000 Bay Total 12,8852,4953,275000 Bakool Cowpea, Sesame, Groundnuts Production Estimates Districts Gu 2010 Production in MTGu 2011 Production in MT CowpeaSesameGroundnutsCowpeaSesameGroundnuts Ceel Barde 000000 Rabdhure 3200400 Tayeglow 210002100 Wajid 7800600 Xudur 126001700 Bakool Total 446004800 Slide 12 Agriculture Gu 2011 Cereal Production Trends (1995 2011) Regional Trend in Gu Cereal Production (Bay Region) Regional Trends in Gu Cereal Production (Bakool Region) Slide 13 Agriculture Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 2011) Annual Cereal Production by Season (Bay Region) Annual Cereal Production by Season (Bakool Region) Slide 14 Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos 1. Sorghum Crop Failure. Lafaale Village, Wajid, Bakool, FSNAU, July 11 2. Sorghum Crop Failure. Bulo Addoy, Dinsor, Bay, FSNAU, July 11. 3. Sorghum Crop Failure with Crop Fodder Harvest. Carro Gaduud, Baidoa, Bay, FSNAU, July 11. 1 2 3 Slide 15 Gu 2011 Local Cereal Flow Map Bay supplies limited sorghum to the Bakool, Gedo and Banadir (Mogadishu). Currently, Bakool gets also cereals from Somali Region of Ethiopia. Bay region receives some maize from Somali region of Ethiopia through cross-border trade in Gedo and/or Bakool. Agriculture Slide 16 Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices (Baidoa - Bay) Regional Trends in Sorghum Prices (Hudur - Bakool) Factors influencing sorghum prices: Sorghum crop failure in all agropastoral livelihoods. High demand for sorghum due to crop production failure in southern Somalia Some decline of sorghum prices between June and July 2011 due to some new sorghum harvest Sorghum flow-in from Ethiopia Slide 17 Labour Rates & Availability Factors Influencing Wage Labour: Low agricultural activities and low labour demand due to poor seasonal performance Regional Trend in Daily Labour Rate, Hudur - Bakool Regional Trend in Daily Labour rate, Baidoa - Bay Agriculture Slide 18 Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Labour to Sorghum Hudur Bakool (3 kg/daily wage) Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Labour to Sorghum Baidoa Bay (4 kg/ daily wage) Factor Affecting ToT decline: Significant increase in sorghum prices Decrease of daily wage rate Slide 19 Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, Gu 2011 Water availability is poor to average for all livelihoods of the two regions Average to poor pasture condition in all areas of Bay and poor in Bakool region Average to poor body condition for camel and goats and poor for cattle and sheep. Normal migration for Bay and abnormal to normal for Bakool region. Slide 20 Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production Bay/Bakool Region Conception (Gu 11) Calving/kidding (Gu 11) Milk production (Gu 11) Expected calving/ kidding July Dec. 11 Trends in Herd Size (Dec. 11) LivelihoodsLivestock Species Bakool Camel: low Cattle: low Sh/goat: medium Camel: low Cattle: none Sh/goat: low Low Camel: low Cattle: low Sh/goat: medium Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: decrease (below baseline) Cattle: decrease (below baseline) Sheep/goat: decrease (below baseline) Camel: low Cattle: low Sh/goat: medium Camel: low Cattle: none Sh/goat: low Low Camel: low Cattle: low Sh/goat: medium B/Bakool Agro- pastoral Camel: decrease (below baseline) Cattle: decrease (below baseline) Sheep/goat: decrease (below baseline) Bay Cattle: low Sh/goat: low Camel: low Cattle: low Sh/goat: low Camel: medium Average for camel Cattle: low Sh/goat: low Camel: low B/Bakool Agro- pastoral Camel: decrease (below baseline) Cattle: decrease (below baseline) Sheep/goat: increase (below baseline) Slide 21 Livestock Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices Average Monthly Prices of Local Quality Goat (Baidoa Bay) Average Monthly Prices of Local Quality Goat (Hudur Bakool) Factors Influencing L. Goat prices: High supply of livestock into markets Poor livestock body condition Low demand for livestock currently. Slide 22 Livestock Regional Trends in Goat Prices & Terms of Trade Trends in Terms of Trade: Between Local Goat and Red Sorghum (Baidoa - Bay): 38 kg/head in Jul 11 vs 126 kg/head in Jul 10 Trends in Terms of Trade: Between Local Goat and Red Sorghum (Hudur - Bakool): 24 kg/head in Jul 11 vs 103kg/head in Jul 10 Factors Influencing TOT (goat to red sorghum): High cereal prices Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions and increased supply on markets Slightly improved ToT in Jul 11 due to increased goat and reduced red sorghum prices Slide 23 Livestock Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Bay and Bakool Mixed Livestock Body Condition Poor Cattle Body Condition. Bulo Gomor, Qansahdhere, Bay, FSNAU, July 2011. Early dried water-catchment, Bakaar weyn, Wajid, Bakool. FSNAU, July 2011 Near Average Goat Body Condition. Kobon, Qansahdhere, Bay, FSNAU, July 2011. Slide 24 Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Factors Influencing Commercial Import Prices: Increased fuel prices Increased international food prices Decreased commercial import supply from Northeast due to Monsoon season, which limited sea freight deliveries to the ports. Markets Slide 25 Summary of Nutrition Findings RegionNutrition Surveys (July 2011) Rapid MUAC Screening (%