Bay Area Bay Area Earthquakes –Earthquakes –

Utility & Lifeline Utility & Lifeline IssuesIssues

JEANNE PERKINSConsultant, ABAG Earthquake and

Hazards Program

Realistically – earthquakes dominate any analysis.

141

Shaking Hazard - Shaking Hazard - Loma Prieta Versus Entire Loma Prieta Versus Entire HaywardHayward

Key Key ExternalExternal “inputs” to “inputs” to business?*business?* 1 - People?

safety/housing/families?2 - Transportation?

roads/bridges/airports?

3 - Utilities? power/ communications / water?

*NOTE: these are “beyond” your facilities and equipment

1 – People:1 – People:

Housing Impacts Housing Impacts

Past Housing ImpactsPast Housing Impacts Over 16,000

uninhabitable units in Loma Prieta

Over 46,000 uninhabitable units in Northridge

Over 155,000 uninhabitable units in future Hayward or San Andreas earthquakes

What Happens - M 6.9 on What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire HaywardEntire Hayward FaultFault • 155,700 uninhabitable units

• (300,000 – Katrina)

• 356,600 people displaced

• (1,700,000 – Katrina)

• 110,300 peak shelter population

What Happens - M 6.7 on What Happens - M 6.7 on Southern Hayward FaultSouthern Hayward Fault • 93,000 uninhabitable units

• 220,000 people displaced

• 70,000 peak shelter population

The Nightmare Goes On and The Nightmare Goes On and On...On...

Peak Shelter Population

01000020000300004000050000600007000080000

Northridge

The HaywardEarthquake"Nightmare"

The Housing Crisis Goes The Housing Crisis Goes On and On...On and On...

SHELTERING SHELTERING

Peak - 70,000 people on day 7Peak - 70,000 people on day 725,000 in shelters on day 9025,000 in shelters on day 90

.. and On and On..... and On and On...

DOLLAR LOSSESDOLLAR LOSSES

Residential Losses = Residential Losses = $ 90 Billion$ 90 Billion

Losses Covered by Earthquake Losses Covered by Earthquake

Insurance = $ 4.4 Billion – Insurance = $ 4.4 Billion – 5%5%

Multifamily vs.Multifamily vs. Single-Single-FamilyFamily

84% of the problem in the Southern Hayward Earthquake Nightmare

Collapse: 1994 Northridge Collapse: 1994 Northridge QuakeQuake

Who Has the Housing Who Has the Housing Problem?Problem?

• Workers repairing the housing

• Workers repairing the roads

• Workers repairing the pipelines

• Workers running the offices

•ALL OF USALL OF US

2 - Transportation 2 - Transportation ImpactsImpacts

2 PAST EARTHQUAKES2 PAST EARTHQUAKES

142 road closures in Loma Prieta140 road closures in Northridge

18 FUTURE EARTHQUAKES 17 Bigger than these earthquakes 0 Bigger than New Orleans

What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault --Hayward Fault --

1,650 total closures – (1,138 if South Hayward)

Most toll bridges not usable for days

Some problems in the Hwy. 101 and 37 corridors in Marin, SF and San Mateo counties

Entire East Bay isolated

7 state-owned toll 7 state-owned toll

bridges:bridges:◦San Francisco-Oakland

Bay◦San Mateo-Hayward◦Dumbarton◦Richmond-San Rafael◦Carquinez◦Benicia-Martinez◦Antioch

PLUS - PLUS - ◦Golden Gate (GGBHD)

* Golden Gate Bridge owned and operated by the Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District (GGBHTD)

*

Initial Mitigation Priority = Initial Mitigation Priority = Key FacilitiesKey Facilities

Yes! Progress! Yes! Progress!

Recovery TimelineRecovery Timeline

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 14

27

40

53

66

79

92

105

118

131

144

157

170

183

196

209

Number of Days After the Earthquakes

Nu

mb

er

of

Str

eet

an

d F

reew

ay C

losu

res

Loma Prieta

Northridge

PROBLEM = PROBLEM = Roads vs. Transportation Roads vs. Transportation StructuresStructures

Hundreds of road closures due to faulting and liquefaction and….

These same roads will have water pipeline breaks.

Isolation and HORRIBLE access with repairs delayed due to number, not complexity, of problem.

Airport Airport System System ImpactsImpacts

What Happens - M 6.9 on What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward FaultEntire Hayward Fault SFO probably

disruption / accessOAK probably

CLOSEDSJC disruption -

should be OK due to retrofit /rebuilding completed in 2003

ABAG working to get a recovery plan for airports

3 - Utility System 3 - Utility System ImpactsImpacts

What Happens to Water What Happens to Water Lines- M 6.9 on Entire Lines- M 6.9 on Entire Hayward FaultHayward Fault 507 documented water pipeline leaks/ruptures in Loma Prieta

BUT IN A HAYWARD QUAKE:5,500 leaks/ ruptures due to

shakingPLUS 100 or more due to

landslidesPLUS 500 due to faultingPLUS 1,000-2,000 ? due to

liquefaction

Initial Mitigation Priority = Initial Mitigation Priority = Key FacilitiesKey Facilities

Water storageAqueductsWater

treatmentWastewater

treatmentPumps and

pumping plantsTunnels

Distribution Systems Not Yet Distribution Systems Not Yet FixedFixed

Assume that water may be disrupted for weeks or months – not 72 hours.

Additional delays due to problems with the roads (access) and impacted workers.

Bay Area Bay Area Earthquakes –Earthquakes –

Big Picture EffortsBig Picture Efforts

Bay Area Multi-Jurisdiction Bay Area Multi-Jurisdiction Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Local Hazard Mitigation Plan GOAL –GOAL –To develop a disaster-resistant To develop a disaster-resistant region byregion byReducing the potential loss of life, property damage, and environmental degradation from natural disasters, while

Speeding economic recovery from those disasters.

Long-Term Recovery Long-Term Recovery InitiativeInitiativeGOAL – 3 years to recovery – not 10 years

Financing Recovery

Recovery of Government

Housing (including soft-story)

Business (particularly small local ones)

Long-Term RecoveryLong-Term Recovery (continued)(continued) Utilities and Transportation

Schools and Education

Health Care

Land Use Change

Governance

Where iWhere is ABAG’s information s ABAG’s information on the internet?on the internet?

http://quake.abag.ca.gov/

AND we need your feedback on AND we need your feedback on thesethese MITIGATION and MITIGATION and RECOVERY efforts! RECOVERY efforts!