baselines for environmental restoration: species, habitats...
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Steven Murawski University of South Florida College of Marine Science
March 7, 2012
Baselines for Environmental Restoration: Species, Habitats, & Ecosystems
Species Habitats Ecosystems
Role(s) of environmental baselines in restoration planning for species, habitats and ecosystems
Examples of the use of baselines in specific restoration and recovery programs
Considerations in the choice and use of environmental baselines
Filling the baseline “Gap”: Importance of broad scale observing & research
Overview
Provide the scale against which to assess injury from specific natural or anthropogenic shocks
Can (under certain circumstances) aid in setting objective, achievable goals for environmental restoration (e.g., end points)
In combination with robust monitoring programs, baselines inform the choices of goals and trajectories to achieving societal aims of restoration
Importance of Environmental Baselines
Mangrove Losses in Florida
Percent Loss0 20 40 60 80 100
Biscayne Bay
Tampa Bay
All Florida
Mangrove ecosystems are a major nursery area for a wide array of biota and a carbon sink Much of west Florida’s mangroves have been
Lost, but can be restored using salt marsh restoration first as “nurseries” Chronic Resource Injury
Long-term wetlands loss Northern Gulf of Mexico Related to: Sediment starvation Channelization (oil & gas) Subsidence SLR
Boesch et al.
Broad-scale context: Overlap of fish larvae and the BP spill
Murawski/USF
Dissolved oxygen profiles for 419 validated profiles as compared to mean and standard deviation for 1o ocean climatology for area around the wellhead. Vertical red dashed line indicates the DO2 level for hypoxia (1.4 mL/L) source: World Ocean Atlas (NOAA)
Hyp
oxic
Lev
el
Acute & Local Resource Injury
Such as deep DO in the Gulf of Mexico
Shifting Baselines & the role of Complexity
Selecting Informative Baselines under environmental variation (un-achievable or set too low?
Timelines of degradation & recovery
Role of Adaptive Management Approaches
Considerations in the Use of Baselines
Carlos Duarte, et al. 2009. Return to Neverland: Shifting Baselines Affect Eutrophication Restoration Targets. Estuaries and Coasts DOI 10.1007/s12237-008-9111-2
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When do we declare victory?
California Sea Lion
Year1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Land
ings
(mt m
eats
)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Surv
ey b
iom
ass
(g/to
w m
eats
)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000Sea Scallops, U.S. Georges Bank
Sometimes nominal baselines shoot too low….. Roles for models
A Typical Stock Undergoing collapse…..and recovery
Moratorium
Developing Indicators and Restoration Actions is an Exercise in Adaptive Management
Baselines
Annual Reprt 2007-2008
Skin Ulcers on Red Snapper ^
Conger eel
tilefish
Southern hake
West Florida Shelf
Northern Gulf Can we substitute space for time?
Northern Gulf West Florida Shelf
Importance of Filling the Baseline “Gap” • Many regions and issues have little to no
baseline monitoring • For example, wrt Deepwater Horizon,
confounds injury assessment
• Robust but directed Observing programs need to fill specific gaps