base case draft – for comment rocky mountain states sub-regional transmission study

Base CaseDraft – For Comment

Rocky Mountain StatesSub-Regional Transmission Study

December 9, 2003

2

RMATSDraft - For Comment 2008 Base Case

Report Overview Objectives

Modeling approach and limitations

Key assumptions

Draft base case results

3


Base Case Objectives Focus on congestion issues that impact serving load in

the RMATS sub-region Assess the current system

• Existing system, plus new, viable investment already in progress• Identify incidence and duration of congestion • Estimate the resulting congestion costs • Include several load, gas price, and hydro sensitivities• Review plant performance

Illuminate opportunities for cost-effective projects• Estimate the incremental value of expansion on congested paths

Identify potential modeling modifications

4


Modeling Approach Modeled with ABB Market Simulator

• Production cost model

• West-wide scope with a particular focus on the RMATS region

• Detailed transmission representation

• Calculates nodal / bus prices

LP dispatch optimization is based on: • Variable O&M

• Fuel cost

• Transmission constraints

Impact of hydro and wind generation• Treated as a fixed dispatch to the system• After hydro and wind dispatch, the net load is passed to thermal dispatch• LMP differences are dampened as hydro is included

Single test year – 2008• Existing system with incremental resources and transmission

• All results presented in 2004 nominal dollars

Sensitivities to come (January): loads, gas prices, hydro conditions

5


Modeling Limitations Modeling assumes a single, seamless west-wide market

with no rate or loss pancaking, and no contractual impediments to trade

Not modeled:• Must-run generation

• Unit commitment

• Transmission wheeling and loss charges

• Generator forced outages

• Contractual / tariff constraints

• Bid behavior

Key Assumptions

7


# Assumption Subcommittee Consensus

Assumption Description

1 Inflation rate 2.5% applied to fuel and variable O&M

2 Transmission topology 32 bubble topology, as provided by the RMATS Transmissions Additions Team. See page 8.

3 Transmission path ratings & nomograms

X As modeled by SSG-WI. Need additional nomagram information and modeling data for new paths.

4 Transmission additions New transmission includes what is defined in the WECC 2008 LS case, as validated by SSG-WI and evaluated by the RMATS Transmissions Additions Team. Base case provides minimal additional transmission with minimal capital expenditure.

5 RMATS regional loads and average annual load growth

As provided by RMATS Load Addition Work Group (LAWG), based on WECC 2003 Load Forecast with RMATS modifications for current load forecasts (post 2003 data collection). See pages 9 and 10.

6 Gas prices X 2008 US average wellhead set at $4.00 and $5.00 / MMBtu. Basis differential will match the 5th NW Conservation and Electric Power Plan. See page 18.

7 DSM DSM will be handled by comparing load forecast scenarios with the assumption that lower load growth will be representative of DSM additions.

8 Existing thermal plants Existing thermal plants as modeled in the SSG-WI base case. See pages 12, 13, 19, and 20. Any excess capacity is exported.

9 Resource additions Includes plants sponsored by entities that have the ability to secure the proper permits, financing and construction, with more than half of the generation subscribed and with a description of associated transmission. See page 11.

10 Thermal plant lives Plants assumed to remain in operation

11 Hydro plant lives All plants operating throughout study

12 Maintenance outages Same assumptions as SSG-WI study; based on the TCA cost benefit study for RTO West. See page 20.

13 Generator cost curves All generators by class and vintage are assumed to have similar cost curves

14 Renewable resources As modeled by SSG-WI, with additions per RMATS Resources Team. See page 14.

15 Wind modeling X Assumptions consistent with SSG-WI Study. Wind shaping will be subject to subsequent revision.

Base Case Assumptions

8


System “Balloon” DiagramB.C. HydroLOAD 7534Loss 394Gen 8159SI 231

SandiegoLOAD 3015Loss 45

Gen 1529SI -1530

SOCOLIFLOAD 14113Loss 318Gen 8106SI -6326

PG & ELOAD 16272Loss 721

Gen 15316SI -1676

NorthwestLOAD 19455Loss 870Gen 24939SI 4614

AlbertaLOAD 6656Loss 201Gen 7056SI 200

Aquila

LOAD 595Loss 16Gen 682SI 70

LADWPLOAD 3978Loss 442Gen 2312SI -2109

ImperialCALOAD 476Loss 20Gen 684SI 187

ArizonaLOAD 9873Loss 277

Gen 11919SI 1769

WAPA L.C.LOAD 140

Loss 103Gen 2982SI 2738

Mexico -CLOAD 1537Loss 35

Gen 1571SI -1

Sierra

LOAD 1197Loss 31Gen 1012SI -217

NevadaLOAD 4156Loss 49

Gen 3424SI -781

RMATS2008 BASE CASEOctober 14, 2003

LegendSI = SCHEDULED INTERCHANGE

ALL VALUES ARE GIVEN IN MW

MONT

WYO

IDAHO

UTAH

COLO

MPC

MdptBoise

& Snake KGB

JB

SWWyo

Bonz

ColW

Wyo

BHB

Ywtl

Bdvw CrsOvr

& Colsp

IPP

Bhills

LRS

MilesCity DCWest of

Broadview

MPC -Wyo

YellowtailSouth

Tot - 4B

Mont - NW

Idaho -Montana

JB West

IPC -Wyo

Tot - 4A

Monmt -Ngtn

Path C

FlamingGorge

Tot - 5

Bonanza West

IPP - Mona

Gonder - IPP &Pavant

BorahWest

West ofCrossover

NewMexico


Tot - 2ATot - 2B

Tot - 2C Tot - 3

32 Bubbles

ColE

West ofColstrip

TOT1A

Tot 2 Combined is Tot 2a & Tot 2b & Tot 2C

UTN

UTS

SWF

9


Loads by Western Interconnect Region- 2008Based on 2003 Load Forecast

NWPP-Canada

NWPP-US

RMATSAZ, NM & S. NV

California

Mexico - CFE

Summer: 58.4Winter: 57.0

Annual GWh with Coincidental Summer & Winter Peaks (GW)






177,493309,324

14,425

144,990136,828

130,743

Load: 913,803 GWh

Summer Peak: 156 GW

10


Loads by RMATS Area - 2008 Based on 2003 Load Forecast

Annual GWh with Non-Coincidental Summer & Winter Peaks (MW)

State AreaSummer Peak

(MW)

Winter Peak (MW)

Energy (GWh)

Colorado Colorado- East 8,878 7,920 52,311 Colorado Colorado- West 871 913 5,834 Idaho Goshen 1,275 1,144 6,123 Idaho Idaho- West 3,025 2,401 15,015 Montana Broadview 295 299 1,875 Montana Montana Power 1,107 1,120 7,033 Montana West of Colstrip 74 74 469 Utah Bonanza 49 46 289 Utah IPP 1 1 8 Utah Utah- North 4,818 3,705 26,801 Utah Utah- South 537 424 2,922 Wyoming Black Hills 851 835 5,674 Wyoming Jim Bridger 1 1 8 Wyoming Laramie River 531 520 3,761 Wyoming Wyoming- Central 304 298 2,111 Wyoming Wyoming- North 425 474 3,446 Wyoming Wyoming- South 423 409 3,140 Wyoming Yellow Tail 1 1 8 Total 23,353 20,311 136,828

11


Coal, 16,896

Gas, 7,741

Hydro, 4,629

Wind, 508

Other, 227 Geothermal, 23

RMATS Resources AdditionsFacility Location Technology

Capacity (MW)

Springerville Expansion Arizona Coal 400

Nebo Utah Gas- CCCT 147

Currant Creek Utah Gas- CCCT 525

Bennett Mountain Idaho Gas- SCCT 167

Pleasant Valley Wyoming Wind 144

Additional Colorado Wind Capacity Colorado Wind 23

Total 1,406

2008 RMATS Resource Allocation

Total Capacity

30,024 MW

12


-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Fuel Type

MW

Western Interconnect 37,712 81,566 65,724 2,958 2,508 2,069 9,262

RMATS 16,896 7,741 4,629 508 227 23

Coal Gas Hydro Wind OtherGeother

malNuclear

Generation Capacity by Fuel Type (MW)- 2008

WI Total: 201,799 MW

RMATS Total: 30,024 MW

13


Capacity Factors By Fuel

Western Interconnect

RMATS

14


Renewable Resources2008 Wind

Plant Bus Name AreaCapacity

(MW)Albrt_Wd LANGDON2 Alberta 150 AltmntWD TESLA PG & E 200 CO_Wind 1 LAMAR CO Colorado- East 160 CO_Wind 2 LAPORTE Colorado- East 63 NM_Wind BLACKWTR New Mexico 200 NW_Wind MCNARY North West 650 Plvy_Wind RAILROAD Utah-North 144 SnGrgnWd DEVERS So. Cal 350 SolanoWd VACA-DIX PG & E 200 Thch_Wd1 OMAR So. Cal 400 Thch_Wd2 ANTELOPE So. Cal 300 Wy_Wind MINERS Wyoming- South 141 Total MW 2,958

15


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Wet Median Dry

Hyd

ro G

ener

atio

n (

GW

H)

California

NWCanada

NW US

Rocky M tn

AZ-NM

California

NWCanada

NW US

California

NWCanada

NW US

Hydro Generation Is Consistent with SSG-WI

Sensitivity (January)

Sensitivity (January)

Current Run

16


-

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

MW

Western Interconnect - Net Position

Nameplate – Load (MW)

17


(4,000)

(3,000)

(2,000)

(1,000)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

MW

RMATS- Net PositionNameplate – Load (MW)

18


Gas PricesBase case assumptions: The 2008 US Average Wellhead will be set at $4.00 /

MMBtu and at $5.00 / MMBtu for a sensitivity

The basis differential will be set to match the 5th Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan

Currently, 2008 Henry Hub Gas Future Price $4.70/MMBtu range (nominal $)

Price BasisAverage US Wellhead price 4.00$ -$ Wellhead w/Fuel use (4%) 4.16 0.16 Henry Hub-Wellhead w/fuel use 4.28 0.28

AECO 3.83 (0.17) East-side PNW 4.23 0.23 Northern CA 4.46 0.46 Station 2 3.93 (0.07) Sumas - PNW 4.15 0.15 West-side PNW 4.52 0.52

San Juan 4.02 0.02 CO - PSColorado 4.38 0.38

Rockies 3.88 (0.12) UT-PACE 4.23 0.23 Wyoming 4.28 0.28 Montana 4.21 0.21 Idaho 4.23 0.23 N. NV-Sierra 4.57 0.57

Permian 4.11 0.11 Arizona 4.43 0.43 New Mexico 4.35 0.35 S. Nevada 4.44 0.44 CA Border 4.44 0.44 Southern CA 4.49 0.49

RAWG Proposal

Gas Price Forecasts (2008)

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

$6.00

STEP 50/50 NYMEX RMATS

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Typical Thermal Resource Values Are Used

Per Generation Technology / AgeFuel Type Technology Size Vintage Heatrate VOM $/MWh

Gas/Oil Steam <100 MW Pre 1960 12,500 $5.00Gas/Oil Steam >100 MW Pre 1960 11,500 $5.00Gas/Oil Steam <100 MW Post 1960 10,500 $5.00Gas/Oil Steam >100 MW Post 1960 9,500 $3.00Gas SCCT Pre 1985 13,500 $8.00Gas CCCT Pre 1985 9,300 $5.00Gas SCCT <70 MW Post 1985 9,500 $5.00Gas SCCT >70 MW Post 1985 10,500 $5.00Gas CCCT Post 1985 7,250 $2.00Coal Steam <100 MW Pre 1960 12,000 $4.00Coal Steam >100 MW Pre 1960 11,000 $2.00Coal Steam <100 MW Post 1960 11,000 $3.00Coal Steam >100 MW Post 1960 10,500 $2.00Coal Fluid Bed 10,500 $2.00Diesel 11,000 $12.00Gas/Oil CCCT Post 2001 7,000 $2.00

Note: - KLG JudgementPeakersCycling plantsAero-derivitives, Optimized for SCLarger Units, Optimized for CCCombined CyclesFor peakers, it is assumed that the maintenance is deferred until a set number of hours is reached.Baseload plants are assumed to be staffed & running.

20


Values consistent with SSG-WI study (% year, very approximate)

Maintenance Outages

Combined Cycle 7%CT 7%Coal Plant 10%Steam Oil/Gas 10%Nuclear 12%Geothermal 10%Wind* 14%**Built into provided spread sheet that was provided to modelers for hourly pattern. Most likely maintenance outages.

Draft Base Case Results

22


Determined location of expected loads and resources• “New” 2008 resources in RMATS are mostly gas-fired CCCTs in a region

where the dominant capacity by fuel type is coal

Defined the boundaries of transmission usage and their associated costs• Area LMPs show transmission limitations and development opportunities.

See chart on page 24.

• Top 5 congested paths:

– Idaho – Montana

– IPP DC line

– TOT 2C

– Combined PACI and PDCI

– Brownlee East

– See charts on pages 27-31

Draft Base Case Results

23


• Clearing prices seen in certain RMATS areas signal the need for increased transmission to alleviate transmission congestion and levelize / stabilize the prices: (See table on page 26)

– Lowest LMP for load average prices were at WAPA LC and Yellow Tail

– Lowest LMP for generator average prices were at WAPA LC, IPP, Bonanza, Utah South, COw, BDVw, LRS

Draft Base Case Results (continued)

24


Idaho - Montana Duration Curve

-3 5 0

-3 0 0

-2 5 0

-2 0 0

-1 5 0

-1 0 0

-5 0

0

5 0

1 0 0

1 5 0

2 0 0

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0

Interface FlowID AH O - M O N T A N A

MW

T i m e

25


IPP DC Duration Curve

-5 0 0

-0

5 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0

Interface FlowIP P D C L IN E

MW

T i m e

26


TOT 2C Duration Curve

-3 0 0

-2 0 0

-1 0 0

0

1 0 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0

Interface FlowT O T 2 C

MW

T i m e

27


Combined PACI & PDCI Duration Curve

-5 0 0 0

-2 5 0 0

0

2 5 0 0

5 0 0 0

7 5 0 0

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0

Interface FlowCo m b i n e d P A C I & P D C I

MW

T i m e

28


Brownlee Duration Curve

0

2 5 0

5 0 0

7 5 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 5 0

1 5 0 0

1 7 5 0

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0

Interface FlowBR O W N L E E E A S T

MW

T i m e

29


RMATS Interface Path Expansion Values

• “Expansion values” represent the value of the next MW of additional transmission capacity

• Calculated as:

• The difference in marginal nodal / bus price at each end of the path

• Over a 1-year period (2004$)

• “Expansion values” represent the value of the next MW of additional transmission capacity

• Calculated as:

• The difference in marginal nodal / bus price at each end of the path

• Over a 1-year period (2004$)

30


Base Case Next Steps RMATS participants to provide comments on

this draft Obtain additional information on nomograms

and new paths to monitor Get final consensus on transmission additions Finalize gas price assumptions Clarify wind shaping assumptions Run gas price, load and hydro sensitivities

(January) Finalize and present base case

Appendix

32


2008 LMP PricesB.C. HydroLOAD 7534Loss 394Gen 8159SI 231

SandiegoLOAD 3015Loss 45

Gen 1529SI -1530

SOCOLIFLOAD 14113Loss 318Gen 8106SI -6326

PG & ELOAD 16272Loss 721

Gen 15316SI -1676

NorthwestLOAD 19455Loss 870Gen 24939SI 4614

AlbertaLOAD 6656Loss 201Gen 7056SI 200

Aquila

LOAD 595Loss 16Gen 682SI 70

LADWPLOAD 3978Loss 442Gen 2312SI -2109

ImperialCALOAD 476Loss 20Gen 684SI 187

ArizonaLOAD 9873Loss 277

Gen 11919SI 1769

WAPA L.C.LOAD 140

Loss 103Gen 2982SI 2738

Mexico -CLOAD 1537Loss 35

Gen 1571SI -1

Sierra


NevadaLOAD 4156Loss 49

Gen 3424SI -781

RMATS2008 BASE CASEOctober 14, 2003

LegendSI = SCHEDULED INTERCHANGE

ALL VALUES ARE GIVEN IN MW

MONT

WYO

IDAHO

UTAH

COLO

MPC

MdptBoise

& Snake KGB

JB

SWWyo

Bonz

ColW

Wyo

BHB

Ywtl

Bdvw CrsOvr

& Colsp

IPP

Bhills

LRS

MilesCity DCWest of

Broadview

MPC -Wyo

YellowtailSouth

Tot - 4B

Mont - NW

Idaho -Montana

JB West

IPC -Wyo

Tot - 4A

Monmt -Ngtn

Path C

FlamingGorge

Tot - 5

Bonanza West

IPP - Mona

Gonder - IPP &Pavant

BorahWest

West ofCrossover

NewMexico


Tot - 2ATot - 2B

Tot - 2C Tot - 3

32 Bubbles

ColE

West ofColstrip

TOT1A

Tot 2 Combined is Tot 2a & Tot 2b & Tot 2C

UTN

UTS

SWF

Area

Load Avg Price

Gen Avg Price

NEW MEXI $40.31 $39.42ARIZONA $39.94 $39.27NEVADA $40.49 $40.29WAPA L.C $39.69 $39.78MEXICO-C $41.24 $40.83IMPERIAL $42.18 $42.62SANDIEGO $43.31 $42.31SOCALIF $43.46 $44.46LADWP $42.91 $46.37IPP $0.00 $39.95PG AND E $42.90 $43.15NORTHWES $41.28 $40.95B.C.HYDR $41.23 $41.52AQUILA $41.22 $40.43ALBERTA $37.73 $37.56IDAHO $41.34 $40.23YLW TL $39.94 $41.38MPC $40.47 $40.06SIERRA $41.72 $41.35WYO $40.35 $39.98SW WYO $40.31 $40.38BONZ $40.42 $39.66UT N $40.67 $40.71UT S $40.53 $39.92COL E $40.68 $40.65COL W $39.95 $39.53BHB $40.34 $0.00B HILL $40.38 $40.07LRS $40.12 $39.74JB $0.00 $40.34KGB $41.22 $41.22BDVW $40.58 $39.94CRSOVRCO $40.60 $40.27

Clearing Prices $/MWH

33


Western Interconnect Expansion Values

Yellow highlighting indicates RMATS interfaces

All monetary amounts in nominal 2004 $

Interface Rev LimitFwd Limit

Average Flow

Minimum Flow

Maximum Flow

Rev Direction Expansion Costs

Fwd Direction Expansion Costs

Total Expansion Value

SILVER PEAK - CONTROL 55 KV -17 17 -4 -17 17 $77,829 $386 $78,215 WOR - PV to Devers -9999 1550 1441 179 1550 $0 $68,801 $68,801 WOR -n- El Dor to Lugo -9999 2754 2266 -508 2754 $0 $38,984 $38,984 ALBERTA - BRITISH COLUMBIA -720 700 510 -720 700 $1,700 $30,974 $32,674 IDAHO - MONTANA -337 337 -67 -337 191 $30,558 $0 $30,558 North of Miguel -9999 2000 1606 411 2000 $0 $12,951 $12,951 SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO (NM1) -1048 1048 885 293 1048 $0 $10,166 $10,166 IPP DC LINE -1400 1920 1670 -821 1920 $0 $8,639 $8,639 INYO - CONTROL 115 KV TIE -56 56 -30 -57 25 $8,000 $0 $8,000 TOT 2C -300 300 21 -300 300 $4,852 $2,846 $7,698 PAVANT, INTRMTN - GONDER 230 KV -235 440 352 7 440 $0 $6,981 $6,981 Combined PACI & PDCI -9999 7300 3032 -4510 7300 $0 $6,178 $6,178 BROWNLEE EAST -9999 1750 821 -82 1750 $0 $5,458 $5,458 COI -3675 4800 1847 -3555 4800 $0 $3,077 $3,077 Southern CA Imports -15200 15200 13283 2488 15200 $0 $2,941 $2,941 BRIDGER WEST -9999 2200 1799 891 2200 $0 $2,871 $2,871 TOT 5 -9999 1675 1108 -966 1675 $0 $2,655 $2,655 TOT 3 -9999 1424 814 -521 1424 $0 $2,134 $2,134 NORTHWEST - CANADA -3150 2000 -377 -3150 2000 $14 $1,932 $1,946 ARIZONA - CALIFORNIA -9999 5700 4898 -270 5700 $0 $1,706 $1,706 TOT 7 -9999 890 528 -257 890 $0 $1,613 $1,613 CA INDEPENDENT - MEXICO (CFE) -800 408 61 -727 408 $0 $1,523 $1,523 PG&E - SPP -150 160 1 -150 160 $1,334 $116 $1,450 NW to Canada, East BC -400 400 23 -400 400 $843 $540 $1,383 EOR - HASSYAMP- N.GILA -9999 1273 867 -76 1273 $0 $1,140 $1,140 INTERMOUNTAIN - MONA 345 KV -1200 1400 -300 -1200 1400 $952 $135 $1,087 NORTHERN - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA -3000 3400 231 -3000 3400 $44 $886 $930 PACIFIC DC INTERTIE (PDCI) -3100 3100 -1266 -3100 3100 $781 $28 $809 PATH C -1000 1000 188 -750 913 $27 $565 $592 Path 15 Borah W Summer -9999 9999 1088 -88 1816 $0 $471 $471 MONTANA - NORTHWEST -1350 2200 1321 -41 2200 $0 $260 $260 BONANZA WEST -9999 785 337 -405 785 $0 $252 $252 Tot 2a, 2b, 2c Nomogram -1600 1570 -159 -1600 1570 $252 $0 $252 BILLINGS - YELLOWTAIL -400 400 20 -391 400 $0 $237 $237 Imp.Valley to Miguel -9999 1560 1291 296 1560 $0 $154 $154 TOT 2B2 -300 265 9 -230 265 $0 $117 $117 TOT 2A -9999 690 -150 -947 690 $0 $69 $69 TOT 4B -9999 680 237 -269 680 $0 $64 $64 BORAH WEST -9999 2307 1476 -74 2307 $0 $40 $40 MIDPOINT - SUMMER LAKE -400 1500 537 -400 1500 $37 $0 $37 NORTH OF SAN ONOFRE -9999 2440 1214 -592 2440 $0 $20 $20 IDAHO - NORTHWEST -1200 2400 498 -1200 1962 $20 $0 $20 SOUTHWEST OF FOUR CORNERS -9999 2325 1203 -293 2325 $0 $18 $18 TOT 1A -9999 650 80 -787 650 $0 $10 $10

base case draft – for comment rocky mountain states sub-regional transmission study

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