Bas Mijling Ronald van der A

AMFIC Final Meeting ● Beijing ● 23 October 2009

Results of WP5: Air Quality Forecasting

1. Implementation Air Quality Model

2. NO2 Reduction During the Olympic Games

3. Air Quality Forecast Service

4. Model Improvements

Overview CHIMERE

output

CHIMERE

ECMWF

meteo

MELCHIOR scheme44 species120 reactions

INTEX-B2006 inventory

GLGC database1 x 1 km²

emissions

monthly averagesgas phase: LMDZ-INCA2aerosol: GOCART

boundaryconditions

end field of previoussimulation

initial field

landuse

chemistry

Resolution 0.25 x 0.25 degree8 horizontal layersHourly concentrations of44 gases and aerosols

by Qiang Zhangand David Streets

INTEX-B Emissions

Model validationwith BBC measurements: PM10 measurements at 13h in central Beijing

with BJEPB measurements: Daily averaged NO2 surface concentration

Jul-Aug 2008

May-Jun 2008CHIMERE values scaledwith factor 0.6

May-June 2008

• Observations filtered for high cloud fractions and low clouds.• Simulated NO2 columns interpolated to time and footprint of retrieval• Free troposphere taken from climatology• Applying averaging kernel to eliminate a priori information of the

retrieval method

GOME-2 OMI

r=0.67 r=0.70

Model vs Satellite

1. Implementation Air Quality Model

2. NO2 Reduction During the Olympic Games

3. Air Quality Forecast Service

4. Model Improvements

• Compare satellite observations with model results (based on uncorrected emissions)

• Use relation xsat = (1–rp) α0 A·xmod

• Use Pre Olympic period as reference: rp=0 : xsat = α0 A·xmod

• Definition periods:

Period 1 Pre Olympic 2 May - 30 June

Period 2 Transition 1 July – 7 August

Period 3 Olympic 8 August – 17 September

Period 4 Post Olympic 18 September – 25 October

Method

Emission reduction during and after the Olympic Games

Oct-Nov 2008 May-Jun 2009

Monthly OMI NO2 over BeijingTaken from Witte et al. (2009)

Mijling et al., GRL (2009)

1. Implementation Air Quality Model

2. NO2 Reduction During the Olympic Games

3. Air Quality Forecast Service

4. Model Improvements

www.amfic.eu/bulletin

Regions Concentration fields Days

East China (whole Chimere domain)

BeijingShanghaiShenyangPearl River DeltaQingdaoSeoul (South Korea)

Ozone peak valueOzone peak 8 hour averageOzone daily averageNO2 peak value

NO2 daily average

PM10 daily average

yesterdaytodaytomorrowday after tomorrw

Web statisticswww.amfic.eu/bulletin

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Sep-0

8

Nov-08

Jan-

09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9

Sep-0

9

NOC: www.knmi.nl/beijing2008

Website statistics

VITO: www.vito.be/amfic

CERC: www.beijingairquality.cn

This system is installed at Beijing Capital Normal University and at the offices of the Beijing Environmental Protection Bureau as well as in Cambridge, UK.

Shanghai World Expo

Presentation at Dutch pavilion:

• Near real time satellite measurements of NO2

• Air Quality forecasts of Shanghai urban area by AMFIC-system

1. Implementation Air Quality Model

2. NO2 Reduction During the Olympic Games

3. Air Quality Forecast Service

4. Model Improvements

High nocturnal concentrations

Hong Kong: PM10 at 15h local time Hong Kong: PM10 at 03h local time

19 Aug

26 Aug 6-7 Sep

Caused by a lack of Urban Heat Island Effect: too low sensible heat flux over megacityTaking BLH=750 m and Kz=1 m2/s for Beijing decreases nocturnal PM10 with 25-30%

Nocturnal boundary layer height too low over megacities

Trace gases not well mixed due to low vertical diffusion coefficient Kz

PM10 Beijing (Aug-Sep 2007)

PM10 Hong Kong(Aug-Sep 2007)

Diurnal profile PM10

Difference satellite and model

-20 0 20

Future work

• Continuing Air Quality services

• Implementing VITO emissions

• More validation with ground data

• Updating emission estimates with satellite data: studying emission trends

• DRAGON-2 (poster), June 2008, Beijing• Evaluation NOC, Oct 2008, De Bilt• Air Quality Conference, March 2009, Istanbul• GEOS CHEM user meeting (poster), April

2009, Cambridge (USA)• EGU, April 2009, Vienna• DRAGON-2, June 2009, Barcelona• ACCENT AT-2 Follow up meeting, June 2009,

Mainz• AURA meeting, Sep 2009, Leiden

Presentation of results

Thank you!

AMFIC Final Meeting ● Beijing ● 23 October 2009