bas i c basic impacts and adaptation for energy and infrastructure manmohan kapshe maulana azad...

B A S I C

B A S I C

Impacts and Adaptation for Energy and Infrastructure

Manmohan KapsheMaulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

International Climate Change Conference, October 19, 2005 Johannesburg, South Africa

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Presentation Sequence

Why Energy and Infrastructure?Special Characteristics of Energy and

InfrastructureMethodologyResultsMajor findings and conclusionsRecommendations and future work


Why Energy and Infrastructure? Energy and Infrastructure are essential for economic

development These are man made long-life assets investment is crucial to support a higher level of

industrial growth These systems are designed to tolerate a reasonable

level of variability but climate change can affect both average conditions and the probability of extreme events

Damages occur primarily because of high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity

Economic growth in India demands energy and development of its infrastructure

Huge investments are planned for these sectors


Special Characteristics of Energy and Infrastructure Impact are more directly associated with climatic extremes rather than averages.

Possibility of abrupt climate changes not anticipated by normal response planning

Substantively different for relatively developed, industrialized regions vs. less developed regions.

Negative impacts of climate change pose risks of higher economic damages in developed / industrialized areas but higher human damages in less-developed areas.

Economically significant. However, not generally considered to be heavily affected by climate change.

Sensitivity to climatic variability and change is relatively lower because of a high capacity to adapt in response to changes in climate.

Especially vulnerable are informal settlements within urban areas, which tend to be built on hazardous sites and to be susceptible to floods, landslides, and other climate-related disasters.

Coastal Settlements and industry show a higher vulnerability.


Civil Buildings

Bridges

Slope Cutting

Embankment

Tunnel

Forest Cover

Air QualityFlora/ fauna

Landerosion

Coast. Env.

Effect of project on environment, Short term impacts are prominent

Environmental Effects

Project Components

Forcing Variables

Conventional Impact Matrix


Reverse Impact Matrix

Dependent Variables

Forcing Variables Environmental Variables Project Components

Environmental Variables

Projects Components

2 4

3 1


Konkan Railway

The 760 Km long Konkan Railway on the Western coastal ghats of India is an engineering marvel with 179 main and 1819 minor bridges, 92 tunnels (covering 12% of the total route) and over 1,000 cuttings (224 deeper than 12 meters). The longest tunnel is 6.5 Km long and the longest bridge is over 2 Km. The pillars of the tallest viaduct bridge are more than 64 meters high, taller than Qutab Minar.


Konkan Railway: Climate Change ImpactsClimatic Parameter Impact Parameter Intervening Parameter Impact on KRC

Temperature Increase

High evaporation rate Stability and Strength of the building materials

Buildings gets weakened More and frequent repair and maintenance

Surface and ground water loss Crop productivity in the region may be affected

Agricultural fright traffic

Need for Air-conditioning Passenger traffic may shift to Air conditioned class

Affects efficiency, carrying capacity and composition.

Rainfall Increase

Ground and surface water level change

Flooding and water logging, Erosion reduces quality of land cover

Buildings affected, structural damages may take place. Increased maintenance and other related costs

Improved water availability in the region

Agricultural production Changes in agricultural freight traffic

Humidity increase Uncomfortable climatic conditions, Vegetation growth along the track

Passenger traffic, affected, increased maintenance cost

Sea Level Change

Land erosion Tracks tunnels and bridges may be affected

Increased maintenance,

Flooding Land stability, and land slides Damage to infrastructure,Reconstruction and relocation

Water logging Delays, risk increase

Extreme Events

Cyclone and high velocity winds and storms

Damage to buildings, communication lines etc

Disruption of services, repair and reconstruction costs

Cloud bursts Land erosion, floods, and land slides Extensive damage to infrastructure, High cost of repair and reconstruction


Konkan Railway: Impact Analysis

Dep

end

ent

vari

able

s

Tem

pera

ture

Rai

nfal

l

Sea

lev

el r

ise

Ext

rem

e ev

ents

Wat

er lo

ggin

g

Veg

etat

ion

grow

th

Lan

d sl

ide

Saf

ety/

Eff

icie

ncy

Mai

nten

ance

Tra

ffic

vol

ume

Forcing Variables

Temperature L M L -- L -- -- -- L

Rainfall L -- M M M H L L M

Sea level rise -- -- -- M L M L -- L

Extreme events -- L -- M -- M L -- M

Water logging -- -- -- -- -- L L -- M

Vegetation growth L L -- -- -- L -- L --

Land slide -- -- -- -- M L M L H

Safety/Efficiency -- -- -- -- L -- L M M

Maintenance -- -- -- -- M L H H M

Traffic volume -- -- -- -- -- -- -- L M

E

nvir

onm

enta

l V

aria

bles

Proj

ect

Com

pone

nts

Environmental Variables Project Components


India: Observed and Simulated Rainfall

Precipitation scenario (2050s, CCSR/NIES model, Japan) 1 100 200 300 (mm/month)

J AN FEB MAR

AP R MAY J UN

J UL AUG SEP

OCT NOV DEC

J AN FEB MAR

AP R MAY J UN

J UL AUG SEP

OCT NOV DEC

Precipitation scenario (2100, HadCM model, IITM Pune, India)


Konkan Railway: Impacts and Adaptation

Presently 20% of repair and maintenance expenses on tracks, tunnels and bridges are due to climatic reasons.

An accident on 21st June 2003 night, resulting in over 50 deaths, was caused by landslide. Consequent to the accident, maximum permissible speed of trains was reduced from 120 Km/h to 75 Km/h.

Present vulnerable regions in the northern zone are shown on the map. Future rainfall pattern shows that such events are likely to occur more frequently and with higher intensity.

Identification of the vulnerable spots and installation of “Raksha Dhaga”.

Adaptation measures should also consider non technological measures


Climate Change Impact on Energy

Direct Impacts Space cooling and heating in residential, commercial

and industrial buildings Air-conditioning in transport vehicles Time of use and cooling load

Indirect Impacts Increased water requirement for irrigation Increased residential water requirement Water availability

Supply Side Impacts Hydroelectricity potential Activities of petroleum companies


Scenario Drivers and Model Parameters(ANSWER-MARKAL)

Scenario Key Drivers Implication on Critical parameters


Sensitivity of various sectors, change in demand, and direct and indirect linkages.

Demand ( ), technology efficiency ( )


Observed and Simulated Mean Annual Temp.

Temperature scenarios (2100, IITM Pune, India)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100Years

TW

h

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100Year

GW

Capacity for additional demand: 13 GW in 2100, i.e. 1.5% of reference case

Electricity demand increased by 64 TWh in 2100

Energy and electricity demand rise from building, irrigation and transport

Energy mix is unaltered.



Climate Change Impact on Emissions

02468

10121416

1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100Years

Mill

ion

Ton

In 2100, carbon emissions increase by 13.5 million ton, i.e. 1% rise over reference case

Emissions increase in power

and transport sectors

Cumulative increase 710 MT


Probability and VariabilityIncreasing mean and variability of the number of days with heavy rainfall will adversely affect the infrastructure, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken.

A. With increase in the mean, the probability of receiving heavy and concentrated rainfall increases resulting in increased threat to infrastructure

B. Increase in variability may cause extremely high concentration of rainfall. It may also result in many new locations getting high rainfall, and many existing locations with heavy rainfall getting more frequent and severe rainfall.

C. Simultaneous increase in mean and variability will make the system highly vulnerable as this will result in high number of days with heavy rainfall, scattered in time and space.

A. Increase in mean

More number of days with >200

mm rainfall

Very high number of days with >200 mm

rainfall

Less number of days with >200

mm rainfall

Light and spread-over rain

Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with

> 200mm rainfall

Present Climate

Future Climate

Pro

bab

ili t

y o f

O

ccu r

ren c

e

B. Increase in variance


mm rainfall Very high

number of days with >200 mm

rainfall


mm rainfall Very less number of days with >200 mm

rainfall

Present Climate

Future Climate

Pro

bab

ili t

y o f

O

ccu r

ren c

e



> 200mm rainfall C. Increase in mean and variance


mm rainfall Very high number of days with >200 mm

rainfall


mm rainfall

Present Climate

Future Climate P

roba

bil

i ty

o f

Occ

u rre

n ce



> 200mm rainfall

A. Increase in mean


mm rainfall

Very high number of days with >200 mm

rainfall


mm rainfall



> 200mm rainfall

Present Climate

Future Climate

Pro

bab

ili t

y o f

O

ccu r

ren c

e

B. Increase in variance


mm rainfall Very high

number of days with >200 mm

rainfall


mm rainfall Very less number of days with >200 mm

rainfall

Present Climate

Future Climate

Pro

bab

ili t

y o f

O

ccu r

ren c

e



> 200mm rainfall C. Increase in mean and variance


mm rainfall Very high number of days with >200 mm

rainfall


mm rainfall

Present Climate

Future Climate P

roba

bil

i ty

o f

Occ

u rre

n ce



> 200mm rainfall


Infrastructure Maintenance Costs

Long-life assets commissioned now will have higher failure rates after a century when they become old. Climate change shall also exacerbate in later part of the 21st century. Therefore, impact probability and costs on the infrastructure would increase significantly in later years.

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Rep

air

an

d M

ain

ten

an

ce C

ost

s

Cost Curve Under Climate Change

Conventional Bath-Tub Curve


Findings and Conclusions Long lived assets having low autonomous adaptive capacity will be

vulnerable to long-term environmental changes in the later half of the century, depending on location.

Impact of environmental change becomes important only in long term. Therefore, it is most often ignored in short-term analysis. Long term projects should carry out this analysis.

Many studies for emission assessment but very few for Impacts Non technological measures are also important for effective

implementation

Environmental impact studies should include impact of long-term environment change on project parameters and resources planning (e.g. energy, water)

Macro-micro / Global-local linkageE.g. Building code, Insurance

Integrated institutional design for policy formulation and implementation


Findings and Conclusions

Two important insights need for awareness building among the concerned people developing good quality databases

further studies are needed which would require Preparation of a catalogue of historic extreme events,

assessing the damages and providing the loss estimates Detailed GIS covers with topographic, vegetation and

geological details showing the major infrastructure systems and components

Sensitivity assessment of the infrastructure components with respect to various forcing climate parameters


Energy and Infrastructure: Adaptation Strategies

Facilities and linkages against extreme weather-related events

Contingency planning and disaster preparedness Changes in financial mechanisms to increase resiliency Relocation and industrial restructuring Planning for likely increase in demands Increased efficiencies in thermal conditioning Adaptation to be associated with marginal adjustments to

changes in climatic parameters Attention to the security of infrastructure Risk financing and risk mitigation


Recommendations

Incorporation of future climate extremes in the project design parameters in the immediate-term

Improved operational and maintenance practices in the near-term

Improved climate predictions and creation of insurance markets in the long-term


Scope for Future Work Establishing the parameters for the reverse link matrix and

identification of the cost structure. Estimating risks associated with Extreme events with the

help of Sectoral case studies Identification of forcing variables and values of thresholds Linking of scenarios to critical parameters Development of a model and GIS-based computer algorithm

for climate change impact studies Detailed regional climate variable projections Adaptation issues of climate change impacts: technology,

community response, innovations and insurance Financing adaptation research and activities Integrated impact assessment studies


Thank You.

bas i c basic impacts and adaptation for energy and infrastructure manmohan kapshe maulana azad...

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