barack obama. obama’s inheritance 1.two us counterinsurgency wars 2.one global war against radical...
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Barack Obama
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Obama’s Inheritance
1. Two US counterinsurgency wars
2. One global war against radical Islam
3. Arab Spring
4. Rising power in China
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Obama’s Foreign PolicyUS National Security Strategy May 2010
Threats• Non-state Actors: The “dark
side” of globalization– Al-Qaeda
• WMD proliferation• Non-Democratic Regimes• Economic Instability • Cyber attacks• Afghanistan/Pakistan• Middle East Instability• New balance of power in
Asia (rise of China)
US Role• Economic renewal at home• Expanding markets• Economic Stability: G-20• Promote US values• “Underwrite global security”• “Shaping international
order”• Engagement• China and Russia within a
stable international order• Strengthening Alliances
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1. Counterinsurgency (COIN) in Iraq
Getting Out: 2/09 Plan Combat Operations Officially End: 9/10/10
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COIN in Afghanistan
• December 2009: Additional 33,000 troops
• Withdrawal in 2014
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Obama Policy
• 2/27/09 Speech• Refocus on
Afghanistan
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2. Global War against Radical Islam
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Drone Strikes
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Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
Anwar al-AwlakiKilled by drone strike
9/30/11
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Attacks 2009
Nidal Hasan Umar Farouk 11/5/09 Abdulmutallab
Killed 13 at Ft. Hood 12/25/09
Northwest FLT 253
Amsterdam to Detroit
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May 1, 2011• Bin-Laden killed
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Counterterrorism Strategy
• Special Forces
• Drone strikes
• Criminal cases
• GW Bush balance: – capture and detain over kill
• Obama balance: – kill over capture and detain
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3. Arab Spring 2010-2011Timeline
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Balancing US interests
• counterterrorism
• human rights and democracy
• OIL
• alliance with Israel
• Iranian threat
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Policies• Encouraging Egyptian military to oust
Mubarak• Trying to salvage Yemeni leaders then
helping negotiate their resignations• Trying to salvage Bahraini leaders, but
encouraging them to move faster on political reform
• Bombing Libya• Diplomacy with Syria then harsh language • Saudi Arabia: silence
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The Dilemma
• Saudi Arabia vs. Iran
• Israel vs. Iran
• After dictators fall– Sectarian civil wars?– Theocracies less friendly with US?– Al-Qaeda opportunities?– Are democracies more or less likely to be
allies of the US?
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4. Rise of China
• One nation catches up to the US
• Rising Challenger
• Declining hegemon
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US vs. China
Obama and Pres. Hu Jintao
Obama and Pres. Xi Jinping
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China as Challenges• Rival Power
• Ideology– One-Party State vs. Liberal Democracy
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China sees Hegemony
Encirclement? (US, Japan, S. Korea, India)
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China sees threat: Launch Tube HatchesUSS Alabama (SSBN)
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Sending a Message?Obama Administration’s first state dinner
• Michelle Obama and Indian PM Singh
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Pivot to Asia
Defense Guidance 2012: – Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership
Priorities for 21st Century Defense
Clinton at East-West Center– “America's Engagement in the
Asia-Pacific” text