banking and the state

6
7/29/2019 Banking and the State http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/banking-and-the-state 1/6 %DQNLQJDQGWKH6WDWH 0LVHV'DLO\)ULGD\)HEUXDU\E\ 7KRUVWHQ3ROOHLWKWWSPLVHVRUJGDLO\DXWKRU7KRUVWHQ3ROOHLW ´,WKDGFRPHWREHDFFHSWHGWKDWWKHSLJVZKRZHUH PDQLIHVWO\FOHYHUHUWKDQWKHRWKHUDQLPDOVVKRXOG GHFLGHDOOTXHVWLRQVRIIDUPSROLF\WKRXJKWKHLU GHFLVLRQVKDGWREHUDWLILHGE\DPDMRULW\YRWHµ 2UZHOO*>@$QLPDO)DUP6 7KH6WDUWLQJ3RLQW&LYLOL]DWLRQ%HJLQV 7KHIRXQGHURIWKH0HGLFLEDQNLQJG\QDVW\*LRYDQQLGL%LFFL GH0HGLFL²VDLGWRKLVFKLOGUHQRQKLVGHDWKEHG´6WD\RXWRIWKHSXEOLFH\Hµ>@ +LVZRUGV UDLVHWKHTXHVWLRQ+RZPXFKGREDQNHUVNQRZDERXWWKHWUXWKRIPRGHUQPRQH\DQGEDQNLQJ" 7RGHYHORSDPHDQLQJIXODQVZHUWRWKLVTXHVWLRQLQWKHWUDGLWLRQRIWKH$XVWULDQ6FKRRORIHFRQRPLFV RQHKDVWRVWDUWULJKWDWWKHEHJLQQLQJDQGWKDWLVZLWKWKH  SURFHVVRIFLYLOL]DWLRQ &LYLOL]DWLRQGHQRWHVWKHGHYHORSPHQWWKURXJKZKLFKPDQVXEVWLWXWHVWKHVWDWHRIWKHGLYLVLRQRIODERU DQGVSHFLDOL]DWLRQWKDWLVSHDFHIXODQGSURGXFWLYHFRRSHUDWLRQIRUWKHVWDWHRIVXEVLVWHQFHWKDWLV DYLROHQWKDQGWRPRXWKH[LVWHQFH ,QKLVPDJQXPRSXV +XPDQ$FWLRQ KWWSPLVHVRUJGRFXPHQW+XPDQ$FWLRQ /XGZLJYRQ0LVHV² SXWIRUZDUGDSUD[HRORJLFDOH[SODQDWLRQRIWKH  SURFHVVRIFLYLOL]DWLRQZKLFKKHOSVXVXQGHUVWDQG WKHFRXUVHRILWVHYROXWLRQ >@ 7R0LVHVWZRIDFWRUVDUHDWWKHKHDUWRIWKHSURFHVVRIFLYLOL]DWLRQ7KHUHPXVWEHDQ LQHTXDOLW\RI ZDQWVDQGVNLOOVDPRQJSHRSOH7KLVLVDQHFHVVDU\FRQGLWLRQIRUSHRSOHWRZDQWWRVHHNFRRSHUDWLRQ 0DQPXVWUHFRJQL]HWKDWKLJKHUSURGXFWLYLW\LVSRVVLEOHWKURXJKDGLYLVLRQRIODERU0LVHVWKXV DVVXPHV²DVDQHFHVVDU\FRQGLWLRQ²D PLQLPXPLQWHOOLJHQFH DPRQJKXPDQEHLQJVDQGDZLOOLQJQHVVWR XVHWKLVLQWHOOLJHQFHLQSUDFWLFDOOLIH  0RQH\(PHUJHV±&DUO0HQJHUV7KHRU\RIWKH2ULJLQRI0RQH\ 7KH LQHTXDOLW\RIVNLOOVDQGZDQWV DFFRPSDQLHGZLWKWKHDVVXPSWLRQRID PLQLPXPLQWHOOLJHQFHOHDGV SHRSOHWRHQJDJHLQWKHGLYLVLRQRIODERUDQGVSHFLDOL]DWLRQ7KLVLQWXUQEULQJVDERXWWKH QHHGIRU LQWHUSHUVRQDOH[FKDQJH 7KHSULPLWLYHIRUPRIDQH[FKDQJHHFRQRP\LVEDUWHU%DUWHUKDVOLPLWDWLRQVKRZHYHU)RULQVWDQFH XQGHUEDUWHUH[FKDQJHRSSRUWXQLWLHVGHSHQGRQDGRXEOHFRLQFLGHQFHRIZDQWV 6RRQHURUODWHUSHRSOHDVVXPLQJDPLQLPXPRILQWHOOLJHQFHZLOOUHDOL]HWKDWXVLQJDQ LQGLUHFWPHDQV RIH[FKDQJH LVHFRQRPLFDOO\EHQHILFLDO 8VLQJDQLQGLUHFWPHDQVRIH[FKDQJHLQFUHDVHVWKHRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUH[FKDQJHDVWKH GRXEOH FRLQFLGHQFHRIZDQWV LVQRORQJHUDUHTXLVLWHIRUPDNLQJWUDGLQJSRVVLEOH 7KHLQGLUHFWPHDQVRIH[FKDQJHWKDWEHFRPHVXQLYHUVDOO\DFFHSWHGLVFDOOHGPRQH\ ,Q 3ULQFLSOHVRI(FRQRPLFV KWWSPLVHVRUJGRFXPHQW3ULQFLSOHVRI(FRQRPLFV &DUO0HQJHU² WKHRUL]HVWKDWPRQH\HPHUJHVVSRQWDQHRXVO\IURPPDUNHWDFWLYLWLHVDQGWKDWIUHHPDUNHWPRQH\ HPHUJHVRXWRIDFRPPRGLW\VXFKDVSUHFLRXVPHWDOV >@ 0LVHVODWHUVKRZHGZLWKKLV UHJUHVVLRQWKHRUHPWKDWWKLVPXVW LQGHHGEHVRIRUSUD[HRORJLFDOUHDVRQV 0RQH\ PXVW KDYHHPHUJHGRXWRIDPDUNHWDQGLW PXVW KDYHVWDUWHGRXWDVDFRPPRGLW\ >@ 5HFRPPHQG 6HQG <RXDQGRWKHUVUHFRPPHQGWKLV

Upload: mises-fan

Post on 04-Apr-2018

217 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Banking and the State

7/29/2019 Banking and the State

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/banking-and-the-state 1/6

%DQNLQJDQGWKH6WDWH

0LVHV'DLO\)ULGD\)HEUXDU\E\7KRUVWHQ3ROOHLWKWWSPLVHVRUJGDLO\DXWKRU7KRUVWHQ3ROOHLW

´,WKDGFRPHWREHDFFHSWHGWKDWWKHSLJVZKRZHUH

PDQLIHVWO\FOHYHUHUWKDQWKHRWKHUDQLPDOVVKRXOG

GHFLGHDOOTXHVWLRQVRIIDUPSROLF\WKRXJKWKHLUGHFLVLRQVKDGWREH UDWLILHGE\DPDMRULW\YRWHµ

2UZHOO*>@$QLPDO)DUP6

7KH6WDUWLQJ3RLQW&LYLOL]DWLRQ%HJLQV

7KHIRXQGHURIWKH0HGLFLEDQNLQJG\QDVW\*LRYDQQLGL%LFFL

GH0HGLFL²VDLGWRKLVFKLOGUHQRQKLVGHDWKEHG´6WD\RXWRIWKHSXEOLFH\Hµ>@+LVZRUGV

UDLVHWKHTXHVWLRQ+RZPXFKGREDQNHUVNQRZDERXWWKHWUXWKRIPRGHUQPRQH\DQGEDQNLQJ"

7RGHYHORSDPHDQLQJIXODQVZHUWRWKLVTXHVWLRQLQWKHWUDGLWLRQRIWKH$XVWULDQ6FKRRORIHFRQRPLFV

RQHKDVWRVWDUWULJKWDWWKHEHJLQQLQJDQGWKDWLVZLWKWKH SURFHVVRIFLYLOL]DWLRQ

&LYLOL]DWLRQGHQRWHVWKHGHYHORSPHQWWKURXJKZKLFKPDQVXEVWLWXWHVWKHVWDWHRIWKHGLYLVLRQRIODERU

DQGVSHFLDOL]DWLRQWKDWLVSHDFHIXODQGSURGXFWLYHFRRSHUDWLRQIRUWKHVWDWHRIVXEVLVWHQFHWKDWLV

DYLROHQWKDQGWRPRXWKH[LVWHQFH

,QKLVPDJQXPRSXV+XPDQ$FWLRQ KWWSPLVHVRUJGRFXPHQW+XPDQ$FWLRQ /XGZLJYRQ0LVHV²

SXWIRUZDUGDSUD[HRORJLFDOH[SODQDWLRQRIWKH  SURFHVVRIFLYLOL]DWLRQZKLFKKHOSVXVXQGHUVWDQG

WKHFRXUVHRILWVHYROXWLRQ>@

7R0LVHVWZRIDFWRUVDUHDWWKHKHDUWRIWKHSURFHVVRIFLYLOL]DWLRQ7KHUHPXVWEHDQLQHTXDOLW\RI 

ZDQWVDQGVNLOOVDPRQJSHRSOH7KLVLVDQHFHVVDU\FRQGLWLRQIRUSHRSOHWRZDQWWRVHHNFRRSHUDWLRQ

0DQPXVWUHFRJQL]HWKDWKLJKHUSURGXFWLYLW\LVSRVVLEOHWKURXJKDGLYLVLRQRI ODERU0LVHVWKXV

DVVXPHV²DVDQHFHVVDU\FRQGLWLRQ²D PLQLPXPLQWHOOLJHQFHDPRQJKXPDQEHLQJVDQGDZLOOLQJQHVVWR

XVHWKLVLQWHOOLJHQFHLQSUDFWLFDOOLIH

 0RQH\(PHUJHV±&DUO0HQJHUV7KHRU\RIWKH2ULJLQRI0RQH\

7KHLQHTXDOLW\RIVNLOOVDQGZDQWVDFFRPSDQLHGZLWKWKHDVVXPSWLRQRID PLQLPXPLQWHOOLJHQFHOHDGV

SHRSOHWRHQJDJHLQWKHGLYLVLRQRI ODERUDQGVSHFLDOL]DWLRQ7KLVLQWXUQEULQJVDERXWWKHQHHGIRU 

LQWHUSHUVRQDOH[FKDQJH

7KHSULPLWLYHIRUPRIDQH[FKDQJHHFRQRP\LVEDUWHU%DUWHUKDVOLPLWDWLRQVKRZHYHU)RULQVWDQFH

XQGHUEDUWHUH[FKDQJHRSSRUWXQLWLHVGHSHQGRQDGRXEOHFRLQFLGHQFHRIZDQWV

6RRQHURUODWHUSHRSOHDVVXPLQJDPLQLPXPRI LQWHOOLJHQFHZLOO UHDOL]HWKDWXVLQJDQLQGLUHFWPHDQV

RIH[FKDQJHLVHFRQRPLFDOO\EHQHILFLDO

8VLQJDQLQGLUHFWPHDQVRIH[FKDQJHLQFUHDVHVWKHRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUH[FKDQJHDVWKH GRXEOH

FRLQFLGHQFHRIZDQWVLVQRORQJHUDUHTXLVLWHIRUPDNLQJWUDGLQJSRVVLEOH

7KHLQGLUHFWPHDQVRIH[FKDQJHWKDWEHFRPHVXQLYHUVDOO\DFFHSWHGLVFDOOHGPRQH\

,Q3ULQFLSOHVRI(FRQRPLFV KWWSPLVHVRUJGRFXPHQW3ULQFLSOHVRI(FRQRPLFV &DUO0HQJHU²

WKHRUL]HVWKDWPRQH\HPHUJHVVSRQWDQHRXVO\IURPPDUNHWDFWLYLWLHVDQGWKDWIUHHPDUNHWPRQH\

HPHUJHVRXWRIDFRPPRGLW\VXFKDVSUHFLRXVPHWDOV >@

0LVHVODWHUVKRZHGZLWKKLV UHJUHVVLRQWKHRUHPWKDWWKLVPXVWLQGHHGEHVRIRUSUD[HRORJLFDOUHDVRQV

0RQH\PXVWKDYHHPHUJHGRXWRIDPDUNHWDQGLWPXVWKDYHVWDUWHGRXWDVDFRPPRGLW\ >@

5HFRPPHQG 6HQG <RXDQGRWKHUVUHFRPPHQGWKLV

Page 2: Banking and the State

7/29/2019 Banking and the State

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/banking-and-the-state 2/6

KWWSPLVHVRUJVWRUH3URGXFWDVS["3URGXFW,G

 0RQH\:DUHKRXVLQJ

0RQH\LVDQHFRQRPLFJRRGOLNHDQ\RWKHU$VVXFKLWZLOOEH

HFRQRPL]HG OLNHDQ\RWKHUJRRG

3HRSOHZLOOGHPDQGFRQYHQLHQWZD\VRIKROGLQJDQGH[FKDQJLQJ

WKHLUPRQH\SURSHU

:LWKSHRSOHGLIIHULQJLQLQGLYLGXDOWLPHSUHIHUHQFHWKHUHZLOOEH

VDYHUVWKRVHZKRKROGH[FHVVEDODQFHVRIPRQH\SURSHUDQG

LQYHVWRUVWKRVHZKRGHPDQGPRQH\SURSHULQH[FHVVRI WKHLUDFWXDOKROGLQJV>@

,WLVDJDLQVWWKLVEDFNGURSWKDWWZRNLQGVRIPRQH\EXVLQHVVHVZRXOG

HPHUJHLQWKHIUHHPDUNHWGHSRVLWEDQNLQJRUPRQH\ZDUHKRXVLQJ

DQGORDQRUFUHGLWEDQNLQJ>@

'HSRVLWEDQNLQJRIIHUVFXVWRGLDQVDIHJXDUGLQJDQGVHWWOHPHQWVHUYLFHVWRKROGHUVRIPRQH\SURSHU

)RULQVWDQFHKROGHUVRIPRQH\SURSHUFDQGHSRVLWWKHLUFRPPRGLW\PRQH\ZLWKDGHSRVLWEDQNDJDLQVW

UHFHLYLQJDPRQH\FHUWLILFDWHLQWKHIRUPRIDEDQNQRWHRUDVLJKWGHSRVLW

&UHGLWEDQNVZRXOGUHILQDQFHWKHPVHOYHVE\REWDLQLQJJHQXLQHVDYLQJVWKDWLVE\LVVXLQJLQWHUHVW

EHDULQJERQGV6DYHUVZLOOZLOOLQJO\H[FKDQJHWKHLUPRQH\SURSHUDJDLQVWVXFKUHWXUQ\LHOGLQJERQGV

7KHPDUNHWLQWHUHVWUDWHZLOOEHGHWHUPLQHGE\WKHVXSSO\RIDQGGHPDQGIRUPRQH\SURSHUDQGVR

WKHHTXLOLEULXPPDUNHWLQWHUHVWUDWHZLOOUHIOHFWWKH VRFLHWDOWLPHSUHIHUHQFHUDWH ,QRWKHUZRUGV,Q

DIUHHPDUNHWWKHUHZLOOTXLWHQDWXUDOO\EHDSURIHVVLRQZKLFKZHPD\FDOO´EDQNHUVµVRPHEDQNHUV

ZLOOZRUNLQWKHPRQH\ZDUHKRXVLQJEXVLQHVVRUGHSRVLWEDQNLQJVRPHLQFUHGLWEDQNLQJ

7REHVXUH,QDIUHHPDUNHWGHSRVLWEDQNLQJDQGFUHGLWLQVWLWXWLRQVZLOOUHSUHVHQWOHJDOO\VHSDUDWH

HQWLWLHVDQGVRZHZRXOGKDYHWKHGHSRVLWEDQNHU DQGZHZRXOGKDYHWKHFUHGLWEDQNHU 

7KH,QFHQWLYHIRU$JJUHVVLRQ

,QDIUHHPDUNHWWKHUHDUHRQO\WKUHHZD\VRIDFTXLULQJSURSHUW\WKDWLVLQDQRQDJJUHVVLYHZD\

KRPHVWHDGLQJZKLFKDFWXDOO\GHQRWHVWKH´ILUVWXVHUILUVWRZQHUSULQFLSOHµSURGXFWLRQDQG

YROXQWDU\FRQWUDFWLQJ

,QUHDOLW\KRZHYHUWKLQJVPD\EHVRPHZKDWGLIIHUHQW

)UDQ]2SSHQKHLPHUSRLQWHGRXWWKDW´7KHUHDUHWZRIXQGDPHQWDOO\RSSRVHGPHDQVZKHUHE\PDQ

UHTXLULQJVXVWHQDQFHLVLPSHOOHGWRREWDLQWKHQHFHVVDU\PHDQVIRUVDWLVI\LQJKLVGHVLUHV7KHVHDUH

ZRUNDQGUREEHU\RQHVRZQODERUDQGWKHIRUFLEOHDSSURSULDWLRQRI WKHODERURIRWKHUVµ >@

7KHORJLFRIKXPDQDFWLRQ WHOOVXVWKDWWKHUHLV²LQIDFWWKHUHPXVWEH²IRUWKHLQGLYLGXDODQ

HFRQRPLFLQFHQWLYHWRDJJUHVVDJDLQVWRWKHUSHRSOHV·SURSHUW\7ZRLQWHUUHODWHGSUD[HRORJLFDOLQVLJKWVH[SODLQWKLV

)LUVWZHNQRZIRUVXUHWKDWDQHDUOLHUVDWLVIDFWLRQLVSUHIHUUHGRYHUDODWHUVDWLVIDFWLRQRIZDQWVZH

DOVRNQRZIRUVXUHWKDWDVDWLVIDFWLRQRIZDQWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKORZFRVWVLVSUHIHUUHGRYHUDVDWLVIDFWLRQ

RIZDQWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKKLJKFRVWV,QRWKHUZRUGVLQGLYLGXDOVWU\WRDFKLHYHWKHLUHQGVZLWKDVOLWWOH

LQSXWDVSRVVLEOHDQGLQ WKHVKRUWHVWSHULRGRI WLPH

6HFRQG WKHSURFHVVWRFLYLOL]DWLRQGRHVQRWH[WLUSDWHPDQ·VLQFOLQDWLRQWRDJJUHVVLRQ,QGLYLGXDO$FDQ

EHH[SHFWHGWRDJJUHVVDJDLQVW%WKDWLVDJDLQVW%·VSURSHUW\LIDQGZKHQKHJHWVDZD\ZLWKLW³WKDW

LVLIWKHH[SHFWHGEHQHILWVIRU$IURPDJJUHVVLQJDJDLQVW%ZLOOEHKLJKHUWKDQWKHH[SHFWHGFRVWV

KHKDVWREHDUE\GRLQJVR

,WLVWKHLQGLYLGXDO·VHFRQRPLFLQFHQWLYHWRDJJUHVVDJDLQVWRWKHUSHRSOHV·SURSHUW\WKDWLVDWWKHKHDUW

RIWKHHPHUJHQFHRIZKDWLVW\SLFDOO\FDOOHGJRYHUQPHQW

$JRYHUQPHQWFDQEHXQGHUVWRRGDVDWHUULWRULDOPRQRSROLVWRIFRPSXOVLRQDQDJHQF\WKDWHQJDJHVLQ

LQVWLWXWLRQDOL]HGSURSHUW\ULJKWVYLRODWLRQVDQGWKHH[SORLWDWLRQ²LQ WKHIRUPRIH[SURSULDWLRQ

Page 3: Banking and the State

7/29/2019 Banking and the State

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/banking-and-the-state 3/6

WD[DWLRQDQGUHJXODWLRQ²RISULYDWHSURSHUW\RZQHUV >@

7RDQVZHUWKHTXHVWLRQ:KDWGREDQNHUVNQRZDERXWWKHWUXWKDERXWPRQH\DQGEDQNLQJ"LWLV

QHFHVVDU\WRWDNHDFORVHUORRNDWWKHYDULRXV  IRUPVRIJRYHUQPHQW

7RVWDUWZLWKRQHFDQPDNHDGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQJRYHUQPHQWVZLWKDORZWLPHSUHIHUHQFHDQG

JRYHUQPHQWVZLWKKLJKWLPHSUHIHUHQFH

$WRQHHQGRIWKHVSHFWUXPLVWRERUURZDFULPLQDOPHWDSKRUIURP0DQFXU/2OVRQ²WKH

URYLQJEDQGLW>@7KHURYLQJEDQGLWUHSUHVHQWVDIRUPRIJRYHUQPHQWWKDWKDVD OLPLWHGLQWHUHVW LQWKH

ZHOIDUHRIVRFLHW\DQGDVDUHVXOWKLVWKHIWW\SLFDOO\DSSURDFKHVSHUFHQWRIVRFLHW\·VLQFRPH

7KHURYLQJEDQGLWGRHVQRWKDYHWRVKDUHLQWKHGDPDJHKLVDJJUHVVLRQFDXVHVWRVRFLHW\LQWHUPVRI 

ORVWLQFRPH7KHWLPHSUHIHUHQFHRIWKHURYLQJEDQGLWLVWKHUHIRUHUHODWLYHO\KLJK+HWDNHVDVPXFK

IURPKLVYLFWLPVDVSRVVLEOHDQGWKHUHLVQH[WWRQRHFRQRPLFLQFHQWLYHWRUHVWUDLQKLVVWHDOLQJ

$WRWKHUHQGRIWKHVSHFWUXPLVWKHVWDWLRQDU\EDQGLW/LNHWKHURYLQJEDQGLWKHDOVRKROGVWKH

PRQRSRO\RIFRHUFLRQRYHUKLVYLFWLPV

+RZHYHUWKHVWDWLRQDU\EDQGLWKDVDQHQFRPSDVVLQJLQWHUHVWLQVRFLHW\·VZHOIDUH+HZLVKHVWRNHHS

KLVYLFWLPVSURGXFLQJWKHPRUHKLVYLFWLPVSURGXFHWKHPRUHWKHUHLVWRWDNHIRUWKHVWDWLRQDU\

EDQGLW

6KDULQJLQVRFLHW\·VORVVHVWKHVWDWLRQDU\EDQGLWZLOOPDNHVXUHWKDWKLVWKLHYHU\LVOLPLWHG7KHKLJKHU

WKHORVVHVLQSURGXFWLRQIURPWKLHYHU\DUHWKHORZHUZLOOEH WKHOHYHORIDJJUHVVLRQDWZKLFKWKH

VWDWLRQDU\EDQGLW·VWDNHLVPD[LPL]HG7KHVWDWLRQDU\EDQGLW·VWLPHSUHIHUHQFHZLOOWKHUHIRUHEHORZHU

WKDQWKHWLPHSUHIHUHQFHRIWKHURYLQJEDQGLW

7DNLQJDFORVHUORRNDWWKHVWDWLRQDU\EDQGLWRQHFDQPDNHDGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQ  SULYDWHRZQHUVKLS

RIJRYHUQPHQW IHXGDOLVPPRQDUFK\DQG SXEOLFRZQHUVKLSRIJRYHUQPHQWGHPRFUDWLF

UHSXEOLFDQLVP>@

7KHFDUHWDNHURIDSULYDWHO\KHOGJRYHUQPHQWPD[LPL]HVWKH  SUHVHQWYDOXHRIWKHWRWDOLQFRPHZKLFK

UHVXOWVIURPH[SURSULDWLQJWKHSURSHUW\RIWKHUXOHG

$PRQDUFKIRULQVWDQFHKROGVWKHPRQRSRO\RIH[SURSULDWLRQRYHUKLVYLFWLPVDQGKLVWLPH

SUHIHUHQFHZLOOEHGXHWRKLVHQFRPSDVVLQJLQWHUHVWUHODWLYHO\ORZ

,QFRQWUDVWWKHFDUHWDNHURIDSXEOLFO\RZQHGJRYHUQPHQWZLOOPD[LPL]HKLVFXUUHQWLQFRPH+LVWLPH

SUHIHUHQFHZLOOWKHUHIRUHEHUHODWLYHO\KLJK

3XEOLFRZQHUVKLSRIJRYHUQPHQWPHDQVPDMRULW\YRWLQJ7KHPDMRULW\RI WKHSHRSOHGHFLGHVDERXW

ZKRZLOOVHUYHDVWKHWHPSRUDU\FDUHWDNHURISXEOLFRZQHUVKLSRIJRYHUQPHQW

7KHDYHUDJHYRWHUZLOO VXSSRUWWKRVHSROLWLFLDQVZKRDUHH[SHFWHGULJKWO\RUZURQJO\WRLPSURYHWKH

YRWHU·VHFRQRPLFVLWXDWLRQ$YRWHUKDVHYHU\HFRQRPLFLQFHQWLYHWRDFWLQ WKLVZD\²LUUHVSHFWLYHRI 

WKHIDFWWKDWWKHLQFRPHKHPD\REWDLQLQWKLVZD\UHVXOWVIURPH[SURSULDWLQJIHOORZFLWL]HQV

7KHFDUHWDNHURISXEOLFRZQHUVKLSRIJRYHUQPHQWLQWXUQKDVDQLQFHQWLYHWRVHFXUHWKHPDMRULW\RI 

WKHYRWHUV+HZLOOIDYRUSROLFLHVRIH[SURSULDWLQJWKHW\SLFDOO\IHZKLJKLQFRPHSURGXFHUVWRWKH

EHQHILWVRI WKHW\SLFDOO\ODUJHJURXSRIOHVVSURGXFWLYHRUQRQSURGXFWLYHSHRSOH

7KHLPSRUWDQWLQVLJKWKHUH LVDVIROORZVSXEOLFRZQHUVKLSRIJRYHUQPHQWZLOOOHDGWRDQRQJRLQJ

HURVLRQRIWKHHQFRPSDVVLQJLQWHUHVWRIWKHPDMRULW\RIWKHSHRSOHLQWKHPDUNHWLQFRPHRIVRFLHW\ 

RULQRWKHUZRUGVVRFLHW\·VWLPHSUHIHUHQFHZLOOLQFUHDVH

*RYHUQPHQW%ULQJV)UDXGXOHQW%DQNLQJ

7KHULVHLQ VRFLHW\·VWLPHSUHIHUHQFHLVWKHFHQWUDOH[SODQDWRU\IDFWRUIRUH[SODLQLQJWKHHPHUJHQFHRI 

IUDXGXOHQWEDQNLQJZKLFKLVHSLWRPL]HGE\DSXUHILDWPRQH\UHJLPH

:HNQRZWKDWWKHFDUHWDNHUVRISXEOLFO\RZQHGJRYHUQPHQWZLVKWRH[SURSULDWHUHVRXUFHVIURPWKH

SXEOLFDWODUJH7KLVFDQEHGRQHPRVWFRQYHQLHQWO\E\REWDLQLQJFRQWURORYHUPRQH\SURGXFWLRQ

Page 4: Banking and the State

7/29/2019 Banking and the State

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/banking-and-the-state 4/6

KWWSPLVHVRUJVWRUH3URGXFWDVS["3URGXFW,G

UHSODFLQJFRPPRGLW\PRQH\ZLWKILDWPRQH\DQGSURGXFLQJPRQH\WKURXJKFUHGLWH[SDQVLRQ

7KHEDQNLQJLQGXVWU\DQGWKHEDQNHUVDUHWKHUHIRUHWKHQDWXUDODOO\IRUJRYHUQPHQW·VSODQQHG

WKLHYHU\,QIDFWWKRVHLQJRYHUQPHQWDQGWKHEDQNHUVZLOODQGORJLFDOO\VRFROOXGHIRUHVWDEOLVKLQJD

SXUHILDWPRQH\V\VWHP

%DQNHUVUHDOL]HWKDWWKH\ZRXOGHDUQDGGLWLRQDOUHYHQXHLIDQGZKHQWKH\DUHDOORZHGWRLVVXHQHZ

PRQH\EDODQFHVWKURXJKFUHGLWH[SDQVLRQRU H[QLKLORPDNLQJORDQVEH\RQGWKHDPRXQWRIPRQH\

SURSHUDYDLODEOHWRWKHP

7KH\XQGHUVWDQGWKDWVXFK IUDFWLRQDOUHVHUYHEDQNLQJLVDIDLUO\SURILWDEOHXQGHUWDNLQJWRWKHPDQGVRWKHGHSRVLWDVZHOODVWKHORDQEDQNHUZLOOEHLQIDYRURIPHUJLQJGHSRVLWEDQNLQJZLWKORDQEDQNLQJ

7KHWHPSRUDU\FDUHWDNHUVRISXEOLFO\RZQHGJRYHUQPHQWVDUHYHU\PXFKLQIDYRURIIUDFWLRQDOUHVHUYH

EDQNLQJWRR%HLQJDILUVWUHFHLYHURIWKHQHZPRQH\JRYHUQPHQWFDQH[SURSULDWHUHVRXUFHVIURPWKH

QDWXUDORZQHUVRIWKLQJV

+DYLQJPRQRSROL]HGWKHODZLWZLOOEH UHODWLYHO\HDV\IRUJRYHUQPHQWWRGHFODUHIUDFWLRQDOUHVHUYH

EDQNLQJOHJDO

(QJDJLQJLQIUDFWLRQDOUHVHUYHEDQNLQJKRZHYHULVULVN\IRUWKHEDQNHU+HNQRZVWKDWLIDQGZKHQ

KLVFRXQWHUIHLWLQJLVGHWHFWHGDEDQNUXQPD\HQVXHDQGKHZRXOGEHIRUFHGRXWRIEXVLQHVVRU

ZRUVH

)RUJRYHUQPHQWEDQNIDLOXUHVDUHIDLUO\XQGHVLUDEOHWRR,WZRXOGEULQJVHYHUHSROLWLFDODQGHFRQRPLF

SUREOHPV0RVWLPSRUWDQWGHIDXOWLQJEDQNVHQGDQJHUDFFHVVWRFUHGLWDQGPRQH\RQHDV\WHUPV

*RYHUQPHQWZLOOWKHUHIRUHJUHDWO\VXSSRUWHGE\WKHEDQNHUV VHWXSDFHQWUDOEDQNZKLFKZLOO

HQDEOHDQGJUHDWO\HQFRXUDJHDOOEDQNVWRLQIODWHWKHTXDQWLW\RIPRQH\LQDFRPELQHGHIIRUW

(YHQZLWKDFHQWUDOEDQNLQSODFHKRZHYHUWKHULVNRIDEDQNUXQLVQRWHQWLUHO\HOLPLQDWHG:KDWLV

QHHGHGLVIRUWKHFHQWUDOEDQNWRKDYHDPRQRSRO\RYHUPRQH\SURGXFWLRQ

7KLVLVZK\VRRQHURUODWHUFRPPRGLW\PRQH\ZLOOEHUHSODFHGE\LUUHGHHPDEOHSDSHURU ILDWPRQH\DQGILDWPRQH\ZLOOEH JUDQWHGOHJDOSULYLOHJHVVXFKDVIRULQVWDQFHOHJDOWHQGHUVWDWXV7RWKLV

HQGJRYHUQPHQWZLOOPDNHLWOHJDOIRUEDQNHUVWRVXVSHQGWKHUHGHHPDELOLW\RIRXWVWDQGLQJPRQH\

FHUWLILFDWHVLQWRPRQH\SURSHU

&ROOHFWLYH&RUUXSWLRQ

2QHPD\ZRQGHU+RZGRJRYHUQPHQWDQGEDQNHUVJHWDZD\ZLWK

WKLV²WKDWLVIUDXGXOHQWO\H[WUDFWLQJUHVRXUFHVIURPSURGXFHUVDQG

FRQWUDFWRUVYLDLVVXLQJLQIODWLRQDU\PRQH\"

,VLWDODFNRINQRZOHGJHRQWKHSDUWRIWKRVHZKRDUHRQWKHORVLQJ

HQGRIWKHFRXQWHUIHLWLQJPRQH\UHJLPH"2UDUHWKHFRVWVRI UHYROWLQJDJDLQVWDSXUHILDWPRQH\UHJLPHSURKLELWLYHO\KLJKIURP

WKHYLHZSRLQWRIWKHLQGLYLGXDO"

$QHFRQRPLFDOO\UHDVRQDEOHWKDWLVSUD[HRORJLFDODQVZHUWRWKLV

TXHVWLRQFDQEHIRXQGZLWKZKDW,FDOO´FROOHFWLYHFRUUXSWLRQµ>@

2QFHJRYHUQPHQWLQWHUYHQHVLQVRFLHW\·VPRQHWDU\DIIDLUV

LQGLYLGXDOVZLOOLQFUHDVLQJO\GHYHORSDGLVSRVLWLRQIRUYLRODWLQJRWKHU

SHRSOHV·SURSHUW\

%\WDNLQJDGYDQWDJHRIJRYHUQPHQWDOFRHUFLYHDFWLRQDQLQGLYLGXDOFDQUHDSWKHEHQHILWVIURP

DJJUHVVLQJDJDLQVWWKHSURSHUW\RIRWKHUVZKLOHKHKDVWREHDURQO\DIUDFWLRQRIWKHGDPDJHKLV

DFWLRQGRHVWRVRFLHW\DVDZKROH

+HKDVHYHU\LQFHQWLYHWRDFWLQWKLVZD\KHZRXOGKDYHWREHDUWKHORVVHVRIZKDWHYHURSSRUWXQLW\

IRUYLRODWLQJRWKHU·VSULYDWHSURSHUW\KHSDVVHVXS

Page 5: Banking and the State

7/29/2019 Banking and the State

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/banking-and-the-state 5/6

Page 6: Banking and the State

7/29/2019 Banking and the State

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/banking-and-the-state 6/6

&RPPHQWRQWKLVDUWLFOH

7KRUVWHQ3ROOHLWLVFKLHIHFRQRPLVWRIWKHSUHFLRXVPHWDOVILUP'HJXVVD*ROGKDQGHO*PE++HLVDOVR

DQKRQRUDU\SURIHVVRUDWWKH)UDQNIXUW6FKRRORI)LQDQFH0DQDJHPHQW+HLVDQDGMXQFWVFKRODURI 

WKH/XGZLJYRQ0LVHV,QVWLWXWHDQGZDVDZDUGHGWKH23$OIRUG,,,3UL]HLQ/LEHUWDULDQ

6FKRODUVKLS+LVZHEVLWHLV ZZZ7KRUVWHQ3ROOHLWFRP KWWSZZZ7KRUVWHQ3ROOHLWFRP 6HQGKLPPDLO

PDLOWRWKRUVWHQSROOHLW#\DKRRGH6HH7KRUVWHQ3ROOHLWVDUWLFOHDUFKLYHV

KWWSPLVHVRUJGDLO\DXWKRU7KRUVWHQ3ROOHLW

<RXFDQVXEVFULEHWRIXWXUHDUWLFOHVE\7KRUVWHQ3ROOHLWYLDWKLV 566IHHG KWWSPLVHVRUJ)HHGVDUWLFOHVDVK["

$XWKRU,G

&RS\ULJKWE\WKH/XGZLJYRQ0LVHV,QVWLWXWH3HUPLVVLRQWRUHSULQWLQZKROHRULQSDUWLVKHUHE\JUDQWHGSURYLGHGIXOOFUHGLWLVJLYHQ

 1RWHV

$VLPLODUYHUVLRQRIWKLVSDSHUZDVKHOGDWWKHWKDQQXDOPHHWLQJRIWKH3URSHUW\DQG)UHHGRP

6RFLHW\RQ6HSWHPEHULQ%RGUXP7XUNH\

>@3DUNV70HGLFL0RQH\%DQNLQJ0HWDSK\VLFVDQG$UWLQ)LIWHHQWK&HQWXU\)ORUHQFH

3URILOH%RRNV/WG/RQGRQS

>@,IDQGDVIDUDVODERUXQGHUWKHGLYLVLRQRIODERULVPRUHSURGXFWLYHWKDQLVRODWHGODERUDQGLI 

DQGDVIDUDVPDQLVDEOHWRUHDOL]HWKLVIDFWKXPDQDFWLRQLWVHOIWHQGVWRZDUGFRRSHUDWLRQDQG

DVVRFLDWLRQPDQEHFRPHVDVRFLDOEHLQJQRWLQ VDFULILFLQJKLVRZQFRQFHUQVIRUWKHVDNHRID

P\WKLFDO0RORFKVRFLHW\EXWLQDLPLQJDWDQLPSURYHPHQWLQKLVRZQZHOIDUH([SHULHQFHWHDFKHV

WKDWWKLVFRQGLWLRQ³KLJKHUSURGXFWLYLW\DFKLHYHGXQGHUWKHGLYLVLRQRI ODERU³LVSUHVHQWEHFDXVHLWV

FDXVH³WKHLQERUQLQHTXDOLW\RIPHQDQGWKHLQHTXDOLW\LQWKHJHRJUDSKLFDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKH

QDWXUDOIDFWRUVRISURGXFWLRQ³LVUHDO7KXVZHDUHLQDSRVLWLRQWRFRPSUHKHQGWKHFRXUVHRIVRFLDO

HYROXWLRQ´0LVHV/Y +XPDQ$FWLRQWKHGS

>@6HH0HQJHU&>@ 3ULQFLSOHVRI(FRQRPLFV&KDSWHUSS²HVS²

´7KHRULJLQRIPRQH\«LVDVZHKDYHVHHQHQWLUHO\QDWXUDODQGWKXVGLVSOD\VOHJLVODWLYHLQIOXHQFH

RQO\LQWKHUDUHVWLQVWDQFHV0RQH\LVQRWDQLQYHQWLRQRIWKHVWDWH,WLVQRWWKHSURGXFWRID

OHJLVODWLYHDFW(YHQWKHVDQFWLRQRISROLWLFDODXWKRULW\LVQRWQHFHVVDU\IRULWVH[LVWHQFH&HUWDLQ

FRPPRGLWLHVFDPHWREHPRQH\TXLWHQDWXUDOO\DVWKHUHVXOWRIHFRQRPLFUHODWLRQVKLSVWKDWZHUH

LQGHSHQGHQWRIWKHSRZHURIWKHVWDWHµ

>@6HH0LVHV/Y +XPDQ$FWLRQS²0LVHV/Y 7KH7KHRU\RI0RQH\ 

DQG&UHGLWSS²

>@2QWKHLVVXHRI WLPHSUHIHUHQFHVHH0LVHV/Y+XPDQ$FWLRQWKHGSS²

DOVR+RSSH++2Q7LPH3UHIHUHQFH*RYHUQPHQWDQGWKH3URFHVVRI 

'HFLYLOL]DWLRQLQ'HPRFUDF\7KH*RG7KDW)DLOHG SS²

>@,QWKLVFRQWH[WVHHIRULQVWDQFH+RSSH+++RZLV)LDW0RQH\3RVVLEOH"²RU7KH

'HYROXWLRQRI0RQH\DQG&UHGLWLQ7KH(FRQRPLFVDQG(WKLFVRI3ULYDWH3URSHUW\6WXGLHVLQ

3ROLWLFDO(FRQRP\DQG3KLORVRSK\ QGHGSS²

>@2SSHQKHLPHU)7KH6WDWHS

>@6HHIRULQVWDQFH+RSSH++2Q0RQDUFK\'HPRFUDF\DQGWKH,GHDRI1DWXUDO

2UGHULQ'HPRFUDF\7KH*RG7KDW)DLOHG SDOVR5RWKEDUG01>@ )RUD1HZ /LEHUW\ &KDSWHU7KH6WDWHSS

>@6HH2OVRQ0 3RZHUDQG3URVSHULW\2XWJURZLQJ&RPPXQLVWDQG&DSLWDOLVW

'LFWDWRUVKLSV%DVLF%RRNVHVSSS²

>@,QWKLVFRQWH[WVHH+RSSH++2Q0RQDUFK\'HPRFUDF\DQGWKH,GHDRI1DWXUDO

2UGHULQ'HPRFUDF\7KH*ROG7KDW)DLOHG SS²HVS²2QGHPRFUDF\VHH

5RWKEDUG01>@3RZHUDQG0DUNHWV*RYHUQPHQWDQGWKH(FRQRP\ WKHG&KDSWHU

%SS²DQGSS²

>@6HH3ROOHLW7)LDW0RQH\DQG&ROOHFWLYH&RUUXSWLRQLQ7KH4XDUWHUO\-RXUQDORI 

 $XVWULDQ(FRQRPLFV9RO1RSS²