bangladesh in 1992 dilemmas of democratization

8/3/2019 Bangladesh in 1992 Dilemmas of Democratization

1/8

Bangladesh in 1992: Dilemmas of DemocratizationAuthor(s): Zillur R. KhanReviewed work(s):Source: Asian Survey, Vol. 33, No. 2, A Survey of Asia in 1992: Part II (Feb., 1993), pp. 150-156Published by: University of California PressStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2645324 .

Accessed: 26/11/2011 06:00

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at .http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp

JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of

content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms

of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected].

University of California Press is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access toAsian

Survey.

http://www.jstor.org
http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=ucalhttp://www.jstor.org/stable/2645324?origin=JSTOR-pdfhttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/stable/2645324?origin=JSTOR-pdfhttp://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=ucal


2/8

BANGLADESH IN 1992Dilemmasof DemocratizationZillurR. KhanHaving almost ompletedhecycleofelectedgovern-ment uleto populist uthoritarianuleto elected uthoritarianule,Ban-

gladeshhas arrived t a political rossroad, nd thedirectiont chooses otakewill determinehe futurefthe nationpolitically,conomically,ndsocially. Ultimately,t willbe the will ofthe vocaland conscientious ewwhose commitmento thenational nterest an make the differencee-tweenKissinger's basket ase" and a rapidly elf-dependentcenario orone of thepoorest ountries f the world. AdvancingBangladesh'sna-tional nterestwould involve, mong other hings, ringingboutbadlyneeded reformsn the country's ducational, conomic,political, ocial,bureaucratic,nd militaryystems.Most of the unsolvedproblems hat Bangladeshhas been facingwithincreasing ifficultyre rooted n the eadership's nability o understandthe role ofeducation nd training s perhaps he most effectivegentofchangefor he advancement f the society. Bangladesh's ecord nmain-taining nd building he educational nfrastructuren 1992 was less thansatisfactory.ts much-heraldedolicyto establish freeprimaryduca-tion systemwithbuilt-in ncentives orgirlsremains o be implemented,and theprefix compulsory" s applied to education s carefullyvoidedby policymakers or ackofsufficientesources nd the prevalent se ofcheapchild abor. The budgeted esources oreducation,which ncludehealthand populationprograms, ose to a modest 17.34% in the 1992budgetfrom14.91% in 1991,an increase hat will certainlynhibit heextent freformeeded obringBangladeshi outh o a competitiveevel.Liketheir ounterpartsnmostunderdeveloped/developingountries,tu-dents n Bangladeshhave beenspearheadinghe movement orreforms,

--M____ ZillurR. Khan is ProfessorndChair,DepartmentfPolitical ci-ence, UniversityfWisconsin-Oshkosh.? 1993byThe Regents f theUniversityf California

150


3/8

BANGLADESHN 1992 151and theresource onstraintsavepushed hem o pursuedirect ction ndbypass nstitutional eans forredress f grievances.

Crisis f dentityMost Bangladeshi olitical eaders ack adequatecommitmento qualityeducation nd this,togetherwiththe use of students s levers n theirpower truggles, as led to campusviolence crossthe country.Thirty-eight ncidentslaiming ive eadand over200 injured,werereported ur-ing 1991, nd comparablencidentsf student artisan nd factional io-lence occurredduring 1992. The Golam Azam issue in particularpolarized tudent olitics n 1992,making hemmoreunpredictable,n-tense, nd oftenviolent.Despitethe fact thatPrime MinisterKhaledaZia's BangladeshNationalist arty BNP) enjoys n absolutemajoritynParliament, haleda's charismaticppeal-largelyattributableo her n-heritancef the partyeadership rom er husband-has beenrapidly e-pleted due to her hurrieddecision n 1991 to seek the support f theJamaat-i-Islamiarty. Most Bengalisassociate the Jamaatand partyleaderGolamAzamwith he 1971collaboratorsf the Pakistanimilitary.Although he BNP couldnot have secured ts28 (out of30) nominatedwomen's eatswithoutheJamaat's upport, husgaining n absolutema-joritynthe egislature,haleda'sdecision o seeksupport romheultra-conservative arty ame back to haunt her during 1992 whenAzam'selection s Jamaat hief riggeredserious ontroversyverthe iberationwar,revivingnew the searchfor national dentity.Khaleda's inability o address the concernssurroundinghis issueamong tudents nd thosewho still arry ittermemoriesfatrocities er-petrated y thePakistanimilitaryn 1971 damagedherpopular mage,and in turn, ontributedo an increasing ocoon effect,istancing ermore nd morefrom olitical eality.Her ownego, coupledwith hefactthat he was increasinglyurroundedya coterie f nexperienceddvis-ers,prevented erfrom eactinguickly o publicresentmentf hergov-ernment's nefficientandling f the Golam Azam case as well as thecommunalviolenceof December1992 thatfollowed he destructionfBabriMasjid (mosque) in India by Hindu fanatics.The late PresidentZia's strategic on-decisionn GolamAzam turnedntoa political lun-der whenhiswidow'sgovernmentecided obring ormal harges gainstJahanara mam, mother f a martyr f the iberation ar,and 23 ofherassociatesforholding mock publictrialofAzam in March 1992 andhanding ownthedeath entence orhisalleged rimes gainsthumanity.The dilemmas fdemocratizationecamemorepronouncedntheBan-gladesh ase when n electedgovernmentad emerged ut failed o rein-forcedemocratic alues. In its efforto bring boutlaw and order n a


4/8

152 ASIAN SURVEY,VOL.XXXIII,NO. 2, FEBRUARY 1993rapidly eterioratingivil ociety, haleda Zia's governmentas managedto make unnecessary ompromises n the civil iberties f Bangladeshis.On thepretext f trengtheningts nti-terrorismrogram,he dministra-tion has given new ease on life o the SpecialPowersAct, a black awreminiscentf the colonial era thatallowssuspected issenters o be ar-rested nd held without rial. Around2,700Bangladeshis ave been an-guishing n prisonunder the electedgovernmentf Khaleda Zia.' Thedilemma onfrontingangladesh n 1992 in its democratization rocesswas this: ifKhaleda Zia increasinglyakesrecourse o extraconstitutionalmeasures o protect er government,hemight ose legitimacynd, thus,undercut he democratic rocess; f,on theotherhand, she succumbs othepressure eing generated y the massmovements f November ndearlyDecember, oincidingwith hecommunal nrest rising roundde-struction f the mosque in India, and dissolvesParliament morethanthreeyears arlier han required y the Constitution)o hold a midtermelection s demanded y the opposition, onstitutionalismould be com-promised, gain undercuttinghe democratic rocess.

The EconomyIn its 1992 report n Bangladesh, he WorldBank placed majoremphasison theneed to restore hort-termconomic nd financialtabilitynd re-verse he ong-term ecline n domestic nvestment.2he report ocusedparticularlyn the need (1) to enhance mplementationf the public n-vestment rogram y accelerating he pace of policyreforms;2) to im-prove hecountry's xternal ompetitiveness;nd (3) to increase omesticproductivitys a preconditiono an export-ledrowth trategy. he de-cline in the annual GDP growth ate has been significant. t marketprices, heGDP stands t $22.5 billion,withgrowth eclining rom peakof7.5% during Y 1975-80 Zia period)to 5.2% during Y 1981-86, o4.0% during Y 1987-89, urther eclining o 3.6% in 1990-91. If thedecline s not arrested oon, Bangladesh'sdependence n external e-sourceswillbecomeeven more acute, creatingn increasinglyntenablesocioeconomic ituation.Muchas donor ountries ould ike ohelpBan-gladesh, heymight ot be able to do so owing o changedglobalpoliticaland economic ealities.The World Bank report nderscored angladesh's conomicwoes,cit-ing everal pecific fficiency-limitingactors. irst, o attain ice elf-suffi-

1. The charge against one of them was that he took part in an anti-state ctivity ypresenting paperat the 1991 BengalStudiesConferencen theUnitedStates,which radi-tionally as ncluded cholars romWestBengal, ndia, ndBangladesh.This authorwasco-organizer f the conference.2. World Bank Report,no. 10265-BD, 1992.


5/8

BANGLADESH N 1992 153ciency, hedistortionsnagriculturalnputpricesmustbe minimized ndfarmersiven ccess to a widerange f nputs o theywillhave theneededflexibilityo react o changingncentives. econd,forprivate ector evel-opment nmanufacturing,twill benecessary oremove hefollowingm-pediments: 1) poor oan recovery, hichhas limitednvestors'ccess tocredit;2) inadequate ccess to rawmaterials,ompounded y mport e-strictionsnd hightariffs;3) frequent ailures n thepowersupply ndother tilities;4) shortage ndincreasingmilitancyf killed abor; 5) thelimited ransportnfrastructure;nd (6) governmentailure o implementits ndustrial olicy.Whether r not the 1992budgethas succeededas a decision-makingtoolin addressinghe crucialproblemsmphasized n the report emainsto be seen. The suggestedmport nd tariffiberalization olicy s facingstiff esistance rom ertainvested nterests,n particular he domesticpackagingndustriesnd poultry armers ho have beenhardhitbynewcompetitionrom utside. Likethe political ilemma fdemocratization,the iberalization ftheeconomy s subject o the pullsof an openversuscontrolled ystem; ike the politicians, he industrialists-includingheagribased nes-are findingutthat hey annothave their ake andeat ttoo.

The lack ofcommitmenty top leadersto settle onflictswiftlyndfairly,heir esignationobureaucratic ootdragging,ndwidespreador-ruption ave madetheBangladeshi conomy ven essviable n 1992. Thisis inspite f donorpressure or tructuraldjustment,euphemism or nultimatumo implementadlyneededreforms. he 1992budget howeda revenue urplus,which added to foreign rants nd loans and extra-budgetaryesources otaled93 billion akas Tk. 38.8 = US$1). BudgetexpendituresotaledTk. 97.55 billion, egistering shortage fTk. 4.46billion.The irony fthe1992budget, otunlike hose nprevious iscal ears,sthat t showeda surplus n itsexpenses ategory nd pathetic eficitsncapitaldevelopment.On top ofthat, he internal ecisionmakerswereunabletoutilize he external esources eceived rom onor ountriespe-cifically o fill hegapingholes in thecapital budget. This anomalyofnonutilizationfexternal esources,stimated t over $5 billion, ame tothe surface n NovemberwhenWorld BankPresident ewis T. Prestonvisited angladesh ndreminded hegovernmentf theneedfor wiftm-plementationfeconomic eforms. othIndia and PakistanfaredbetterinPreston's ssessment f aid utilization ecords. Thiswas a clearsignalfrom id givers hat before eekingnew and/or additional id commit-ments, angladeshmustfirstttend o itsbulging roject id pipeline y


6/8

154 ASIAN SURVEY,VOL. XXXIII,NO.2, FEBRUARY1993prompt nd effectiveecisions nd actions o improve ignificantlyts aidabsorptivend/orutilization erformance.Another nomalyof the 1992 budgetwas the 17% slice for defense,whichwhen hehidden xpenseswerefactoredn, ncreased o more han20% of therevenue udget. In the processofforcing ut theErshad re-gime, hecivilian eadership eceived hesupport f a number f militaryleaders nd themass of oldiery.This, ogether ith hefact hat heBNPwas createdby a militaryeader, ed to Khaleda's decision o expandthemilitaryudget, ontrary o popularexpectations.But apartfrom elec-tiveemploymentnd increasingGDP, themilitaryxpenditure ill dovery ittle oraiseconsciousnessbout ocietalneeds nd howbest o meetthem.

ForeignPolicyThe clarity nd vigorof a nation'sforeign olicy argely ependson thestate f tsdomestic olicies ndifferentreas. Havingcompletedheelec-toralprocesswithconsiderableuccess n 1991, Bangladeshfound 1992frought ith xtraordinarilyifficultituationsf ethnicnsurgency,olit-ical uncertainty,nd seriouseconomic mbalance. All thesehave had avery egativempact n theviabilityndlegitimacyfBangladesh's olicytoward tsgiantneighbor,ndia, and its onlyotherneighbor,Myanmar,withwhich tshares tssoutheasternoundary.The government'snability o meet the legitimate emands of theChakmasoftheChittagong ill tracts, he argest roup mong hecoun-try'stribalpopulation,has had a numberof importantonsequences.First, thnicnsurgenciesavecreated foreignolicyproblemwithNewDelhi owing o the llegalmigration f someChakmasto India. Second,the nsurgents ave used Indianterritorys a sanctuary romwhich heyreportedly avebeenlaunching uerrilla ttacks gainstBangladesh or-dersecurity ersonnel s well as terrorizinghecivilianpopulation verthelast twodecades. In its efforto crushthe Chakmainsurgency,hegovernment as beenspending k. 6.5 billion ca. $150 million) year.Untilrecently,haka has made little r no serious ttempto negotiatewith he nsurgentsvertheir ourdemands, amely: 1) subregionalu-tonomy; 2) retention fRegulation1900,which accorded them pecialstatus s disadvantaged ribals;3) continuationf the office fchief; nd(4) a constitutionally andatedrestrictionn Bengalisettlementn theHill Tracts.3

3. Based on theauthor's nterviewn 1970 withRaja TridipRoy,chief f theChakmas,andRashedKhan Menon,one of theopposition artyeaders,nAugust1992. Menon wasseriously njuredn an assassinationttemptn the same month.


7/8

BANGLADESH N 1992 155Since India's cooperation s vitalfor he resolution f manyof Bangla-desh's foreign olicyproblems-including he Chakma repatriationsndthe end of their nsurgency,order ettlements, ater-sharingrom he

Ganges, nd so on-it has become hegeneral ractice or hehead of anyBangladeshigovernment/stateo pay official isitsto New Delhi fromtime o time. PrimeMinisterKhaleda Zia's May 1992 visitwas perhapsdesignedoseekDelhi's help n pressuringheChakma nsurgentso cometo a negotiated ettlementn their ormal emands. Her ointcommuni-que with he ndian primeministereemedto open up thedormant, uthighly olatile llegal mmigrationssue. Such a sensitivessue,whichhadonce moved ndiraGandhito consider utting fence roundBangladesh,should have beenaddressedmuch morecautiously fterwidespread on-sultation t home.Insteadofrepatriating angladeshiChakmas, ndian effortso returnillegal mmigrantsed to the rounding p of over 100 Bengali-speakingpeoplefrom heslumsof New Delhi and pushing hem ntoBangladesh.This created bipartisan rotest gainst he Indian decision nd almostdefeatedhepurpose f Khaleda's goodwill isit; t also casta diplomaticgloomover the seventh AARC summit cheduled o be heldduring hesecond week of December n Dhaka. The summitwas postponed ntilJanuaryndthen ndefinitelyecauseofthedisturbancesnIndiaover hedestructionftheBabriMasjid. PrimeMinister haledaZia's diplomaticsetbackswith ndia proved o be, fortunatelyorher, blessingndisguise,generatingenewed upport t home ndealingwith hequestionable e-signs f ndia. Scapegoatingmaywork ometimes, utcarryinghebogeyofIndia toofarwill certainly e counterproductiveorBangladesh.Whether r not Khaleda's India visithad any far-reachingffects,herewas a temporaryesolution fter ertrip fa long-standingorder rob-leminvolving he transferf a strip f ndian and to Bangladesh or c-cess to Bangladeshi nclaves nsideIndia; also the Chakma insurgentsmade overtureshrough unilateral essationofhostilityo encourageDhaka tonegotiate settlement. oreover,ndiafor hefirstime eemedto agreetomultilateral egotiations,nvolving angladesh nd Nepal,toresolve he rapidly eterioratingroblem f sharingwaterfrom he Gan-ges. India has also reportedlygreed o negotiate proposalwithBangla-desh and other outhAsian countriest the SAARC summit or 10%reductionftariffso bolster he sagging ntraregionalrade.Khaleda's Pakistan isitnAugust ought o generate ew nitiativesorincreasing akistani nvestmentn Bangladesh. However, erreportedf-fer o return hefewmoney-losingangladeshiutemillsto their ormerPakistani wners eceived ittle r no encouragement,nd neither idhersuggestionhat n equitable rrangemente considered orgiving angla-


8/8

156 ASIAN SURVEY,VOL.XXXIII,NO.2,FEBRUARY 1993desh ts due shareof dentifiablessetsdevelopedwithresources rom heformer ast Pakistan. However,many n Bangladesh, articularlyhosestill amentinghe 1971fragmentationfthe slamic tate fPakistan, awKhaleda Zia's cordialreceptiony Pakistani eaders s a positive ign hatsomeday hesymbiotic elationshipetween woof the three argestMus-lim countriesn the world ouldbe restored ndperhaps enerate coun-tervailing eightgainst oth ndiaand Myanmar'suspected ropensitiesto takeBangladesh orgranted.Myanmar,nd earlierBurmese overnmentecisions vertheyears oquell the Arakanese nsurgency,rowing ut ofdemandsforgreater e-gional utonomy,esultedn theperiodic xodus o Bangladesh fArakaninhabitantsfBengaliorigin known s Rohingya). n spiteof a repatria-tion greementnApril 1992, nly5,981out ofan estimated 54,000refu-gees had beenrepatriateds ofDecember. Lacking ufficientoodfor tsowndisadvantagedocals,theBangladesh overnmentas experiencedn-creasing nternal ressure n the ssue, nd a local citizens roup alledtheRohingya epatriation ctionCommitteessued n ultimatumaying hatif the repatriation as not completed y December31, it wouldstartnoncooperation ovement.

ConclusionThe new representativeovernmentn Bangladeshoperates n a societythat s still radition-orientedndonlybeginningts ourney romtatus ocontract,nd where hetendency o monopolize overnmentalower s incontinuous onflictwithextreme luralization.The dangerof a rapidlyshrinkingommonground n whichconflicts an be resolved lwaysex-ists. The yearbrought ut n theopen whatBengali ociety as been try-ing to leavehidden. Having confrontedhe problem f national dentitythrough heGolam Azam and indemnityssues,Bangladeshis re beingforced o facesocietalrealities.But to define hemosturgent roblemsconfrontinghepeoplewilldemand higherevelofrationalityn thepartof bothpolicymakers nd implementers.It is not easy to find egitimatemeans to resolve he conflicts,nd onewouldhesitateosuggesthatPrimeMinister haledaZia's representativegovernmentasbeenevenmoderatelyuccessfulntransformingtselfntoa democratic overnmentapableofbuilding onsensus n nationalgoalsand how bestto attain hem.

bangladesh in 1992 dilemmas of democratization

Documents