bangladesh climate vulnerability: floods and cyclones

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Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones BANGLADESH CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES House 10, Road 16A, Gulshan 1, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh Phone: 8818214-7, 9851234, 9852904; Fax: 9851417 Website: www.bcas.net Dr. Atiq Rahman Executive Director: Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) Founding Chairman: Climate Action Network – South Asia (CANSA) Visiting Professor: Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy , Tufts University and Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA IFPRI 2020 Conference on Building Resilience for Food and Nutrition Security Date: 15-17 May, 2014 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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May 16 in Parallel Session 3E "Earthquakes, Hurricanes, Floods & More: Dealing with Natural Disasters". Presented by A. Atiq Rahman, BCAS.

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Page 1: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

BANGLADESH CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES House 10, Road 16A, Gulshan 1, Dhaka 1212, BangladeshPhone: 8818214-7, 9851234, 9852904; Fax: 9851417Website: www.bcas.net

Dr. Atiq RahmanExecutive Director: Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS)Founding Chairman: Climate Action Network – South Asia (CANSA)

Visiting Professor: Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy , Tufts University and Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA

IFPRI 2020 Conference on Building Resilience for Food and Nutrition SecurityDate: 15-17 May, 2014

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Page 2: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Outline of the presentation

1. Bangladesh: Most vulnerable country

2. Extreme Events: Climate Impacts

3. Cyclones: A Case Study

4. Floods: A Case Study

5. Responses: By Communities

Page 3: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

CLIMATE CHANGE CASE STUDY: BANGLADESH VULNERABILITY

1. Sea Level Rise

2. Cyclone (Intensity & Frequency)

3. Deeper Penetration of Saline Water

4. Erratic Rainfall

5. Flood (Intensity & Frequency)

6. Drought

7. River Bank Erosion

8. Health

9. Food Security

10. Water Security

11. Land slide in CHT

12. Migration

Page 4: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Relief Map of South Asiahttp://www.flickr.com/photos/ocean_of_stars/2785428699/sizes/o/in/photostream/

Nepal

India

Myanmar

Pakistan

Page 5: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Bangladesh occupies a unique geographic location spanning a stretch of land between the mighty Himalayan mountain chain on the north and the open ocean on the south. It

is virtually the only drainage outlet for a vast river basin complex made up of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and the Meghna and their network.

Page 6: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

The Complex River Systems

1. Unique geographical location2. Dominance of flood plain3. Himalayan drainage eco-system

Water Tower

Water Sink

Page 7: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

The variability of onset, breaks and duration of the summer monsoon have enormous affects on water resources, agriculture, economics, ecosystems, and human mortality throughout South Asia and Bangladesh as well.

Location of Bangladesh in relation to major river basins in South Asia

Page 8: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Extreme Events: Global

Page 9: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Earth quakeTsunami

Volcanic Eruption

Flood & River ErosionCycloneDrought

Land slideHeat/Cold waves

Sea Level Rise and Salinity Intrusion

Nat

ural

Haz

ards

Extr

eme

Clim

atic

Eve

nts

Climate Change Related

Tectonic

Types of hazards

Page 10: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

How Climate Change Increases Risk

Changes in the magnitude,coverage and frequency of climaticextremes

Changes in average climaticconditions and climate variability,affecting underlying risk factors

Generates new threats, which aregion may have no or littleexperience in dealing with.

10

Page 11: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Climatic Extreme Events

Temperature rise and heatwaves in China, Russia, Mongolia, Korea, Japan, India and South East Asia

Increased and erratic rainfall induced frequent floods in Bangladesh, India, China and South East Asia

Cyclones and Typhoons in South Asia, Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Japan and China

11

Page 12: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Climatic Extreme Events

Number of recorded disasters doubled globally from approximately 200 to over 400 per year in the past two decadesNine out of 10 disasters are now climate related

Sea level rise and salinity in South Asia, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and SEA

Droughts in South Asia including India and Bangladesh, South East Asia, China and Mongolia

Page 13: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Source: Swiss Re sigma Catastrophe database: Include floods, storms, droughts, forest fires, cold wave & frost, hail and other

Change in Frequency of Hazard Event

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Page 15: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Global cost of weather extreme events is increasing to a great extent

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Page 16: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Number of houses damaged per million people per year (using 21 datasets)

Source: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011, UNISDR

16

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Global Cyclones Incidence and Intensity

17

Page 18: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Extreme Events: Bangladesh

Page 19: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones
Page 20: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Hazard Class Map Ranking of multi-hazard maps used for preparing the risk-index : Cyclone ( high risk-5, risk-3,wind risk- 1) Flood (Severely flooded due to major

river floods – 3, flash flood due to major river-2, other flood-1)

Riverbank erosion(severe erosion-2, erosion -1)

Drought (very severe drought prone areas – 2, severe drought-1)

Page 21: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Sea

Lev

el R

ise

Page 22: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Cyclone

Page 23: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Saline Zone of Bangladesh

Page 24: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Err

atic

Rai

nfal

l

Page 25: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Flood

Flood 2004

Page 26: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Flood Frequency

FloodedArea

Return period (Years)2 5 10 20 25 50 100

Areaaffected %

20 30 37 43 52 60 70

Last 30years

5 3 2 2

Last 10years

3 2 1 1

Inundated Area during Different Floods and Number of Occurrences in Last 30 Years

For Example: A flood event with return period of 20 years has already occurred twice during the last 10 years.

Page 27: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

EXISTING DROUGHT SITUATION,AND DROUGHT SITUATION IN THE YEARS 2030 & 2075

EXISTING DROUGHT

DROUGHT CLASSES (KHARIF SEASON)

Very Severe DroughtSevere DroughtModerate DroughtLess Moderate DroughtSlight Drought

Very Slight to NilSevere & ModerateModerate & Less ModerateSunderbansForest

ADDITIONAL DROUGHTPRONE AREAS IN 2030

ADDITIONAL DROUGHTPRONE AREAS IN 2075

Page 28: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Rive

r Ban

k E

rosio

n

Page 29: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Health

Source: IPCC AR4, 2007

Page 30: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Migration

Source: IPCC AR4, 2007

Internal initially

External later

No one wants to leave their land

Global justice: Issues of migration

Human rights: Issues of migration

Migration already happening

Strategic dimension of migration

Page 31: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones
Page 32: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Key Climate Change Stresses and Impacts on CHT

• Hills support sub-ecosystems which are rich in species and biodiversity

• These give livelihood supports to the hilly people

• Key stresses in CHT– Temperature rise– Erratic rainfall– Extreme events -Flood

and Landslide

Page 33: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Maxim

um

Temperature

Page 34: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Cyclones

Page 35: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

1970

19912007

Source: DMB Situation Report,2007

• According to ICZMP coastal area includes 19 districts. Among these 16 coastal districts are considered in present study

• Total area: 42,500 km2

• Total population: 31 million (BBS, 2001)

History of major cyclones

Page 36: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Cyclone

Page 37: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Cyclones in Bangladesh

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Page 38: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

• Wind speed will increase around 10%for one degree Celsius increase in temperature.

• Frequency and Intensity of cyclone will be more.

Climate Change Impact on Cyclone

Page 39: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Recent Cyclones in the Subcontinent

SIDR: Bangladesh: 2007

NARGIS: Myanmar: 2008

RASHMI: Bangladesh: 2008

AILA : Bangladesh: 2009

MOHASEN: Bangladesh: 2013

Page 40: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

CYCLONE

40

Page 41: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Floods

Page 42: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Frequency of Flood

42

Page 43: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Flood

Flood 2004

Page 44: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

FLOOD

44

Page 45: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Causes

a. Heavy rainfall

b. Heavy siltation of the river bed reduces the watercarrying capacity of the rivers/stream.

c. Blockage in the drains leads to flooding of the area.

d. Landslides blocking the flow of the stream.

e. Construction of dams and reservoirs

f. In areas prone to cyclone, strong winds accompaniedby heavy down pour along with storm surge leads toflooding.

Flood

Page 46: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Chronology of Big Floods

Page 47: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Economic Loss and Fatality of Floods

Page 48: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

RADARSAT ScanSAR Wide image, 23 July 2004

Page 49: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Climate Change Impact on River Flow

Sources: A study conducted by CEGIS using the hydrological model SWAT

Page 50: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

BrahmaputraAnnual: 710,000 Mm3

Increase: 5-10%

Annual: 150,000 Mm3

Increase: 7-10%

MeghnaGanges

Annual: 350,000 Mm3

Increase: 8-17%

Climate Change Impact on River FlowCont..

Page 51: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

• Flooding event will increase both in terms of intensity and frequency

• The average flooding depth will increase about 0.3 m

• The 50 year return period of flood event will be a 20 year event

Climate Change Impact on Flooding

Page 52: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

The Linkage

Climate Change

Global Warming (Anthropogenic)

Temperature Rise•LST•SST

Variation in Precipitation Ice Melting and Sea Level Rise

Flood Drought Cyclone and Storm Surge

Loss of Property + Injury + Death

DISASTER

Page 53: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Food Security IPCC estimates that, by 2050, rice production in

Bangladesh could decline by 8 percent and wheat by 32 percent

Decrease production of livestock, Increase of pest attack Decrease production of fisheries

Page 54: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Development over time in Climate Change Impacted scenario and Adaptation Achievements

Dividend in climate smart development

Deve

lopme

nt ($

)

Climate impacted development loss

Climate smart adaptation benefits

Time (t) years

54

Page 55: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Floods and Cyclones pictures

Page 56: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Climate Disasters in Bangladesh

Page 57: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones
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Page 59: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones
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Responses: Some Examples on Community Based

Adaptation

Page 65: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Source: Char Livelihood Program of DFID

Raised Plinth Height

Page 66: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Hom

este

ad G

arde

n on

Ra

ised

Plin

th

Page 67: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Raised Plinth of Toilet

Page 68: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Livestock During Flood

Raising Plinth

Page 69: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Preservation of Household Assets Over False Ceiling

Storage of Food during Flood

Page 70: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Storage of Safe DrinkingWater & Dry Food

Page 71: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Community based rain water harvesting

Household based rain water harvesting

Page 72: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Floating Garden During Flood

Locally Known as Baira Cultivation

Page 73: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Raised Tube Well

Page 74: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Store Extra Furnace

Page 75: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Protecting from Erosion

Protecting Income Generating Activity

Page 76: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Water Collection in Hilly Region

Page 77: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Community People Using the Water of Re-excavated Pond

Page 78: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Pond Sand Filter

Page 79: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Household Based Rain Water Harvesting in Drought Prone Area

Page 80: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Drip Irrigation

Page 81: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Household Based Irrigation Farming

Page 82: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Crab Farming in Saline Water

Page 83: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Saline Tolerant Rice

Page 84: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Chickpeas in Drought Area

Page 85: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Seed storage system/seed bank

Adjustment in Cropping pattern Hanging Nursery

Making Soil heap

Local Adaptation Practices in Nepal

Page 86: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

A Greenhouse in Pakistan

Page 87: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Examples in Agriculture

Nigeria Morocco

Senegal India

Page 88: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Example in Agriculture

Australia

Page 89: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Examples in Agriculture

Farming in Brazil

Page 90: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Intensive Potato Farming in Canada

Examples in Agriculture

Page 91: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Farming in New Zealand

Examples in Agriculture

Page 92: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

Farming in Philippines

Examples in Agriculture

Page 93: Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones