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Weekly Market Report

Week 24/2019 (10 June – 14 June)

Comment: MEG Crude Oil Outlook

index

comment page 2

chartering

dry cargo “ 3

tankers “ 6

containers “ 8

sale & purchase

newbuildings / finance “ 9

secondhand / demolition “ 10

commodities

news “ 11

prices “ 13

banchero costa network chartering - sale&purchase - ship finance - insurance - agency - research - and more...

comment

2 market report - week 24/2019

Nearly one month after the attack to four tanker vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, two tankers were hit in the Gulf of Oman while transiting waters near to Fujairah on Thursday 13 morning.

With regard to the critical relevance of the Middle East Gulf (MEG) for the shipping sector, below we trace last year MEG crude oil numbers in terms of oil reserves, productions and exports, retrieved from the latest OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin.

According to OPEC, the Middle Eastern countries accounted for 54 percent of global proven oil reserves and over 34 percent of global crude production in 2018 – making the MEG the largest crude producing region globally. Looking at crude oil reserves in the MEG, Saudi Arabia holds 33 percent, followed by Iran and Iraq with an additional 19 percent and 18 percent respectively.

In terms of output, the countries produced in total approximately 26.61 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2016; over the next two years and mainly as a result of OPEC decisions to cut production at the end of 2016 and then set new levels by mid-2018, yearly output dropped to around 25.69 million bpd in 2017 and reached around 25.74 million bpd in 2018.

Thanks to a crude oil production of around 10.32 million bpd in 2018, Saudi Arabia is by far the largest producer in the region – accounting for 40 percent of the total, before Iraq (4.41 mln bpd – 17 percent), Iran (3.55 mln bpd – 14 percent), UAE (3.01 mln bpd – 12 percent) and Kuwait (2.74 mln bpd – 11 percent).

As already mentioned in our previous weekly report comment, Middle Eastern countries dominated the list of 10 top global crude oil exporter in 2018 that shows Saudi Arabia leading with around 7.37 mln bpd, Iraq in third place with 3.86 mln bpd), and then UAE (2.30 mln bpd), Kuwait (2.05 mln bpd) and Iran (1.85 mln bpd) in the 5th, 6th and 9th place respectively. In terms of regions, the Middle East accounted for around 42 percent of global exports, while the next largest exporting region was Eastern Europe and Eurasia (mainly Russia) accounting for 16 percent, as well as Africa (14 percent).

MEG Crude Oil Outlook

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

Saudi Arabia

Russia

Iraq

Canada

UAE

Kuwait

U.S.

Nigeria

Iran

Kazakhstan

mln bpd

Top 10 Crude Oil Exporting Countries - 2018(source: OPEC ; in million bpd)

North America11%

Latin America10%

Eastern Europe and Eurasia

16%Western Europe

5%

Middle East41%

Africa14%

Asia Pacific3%

Global Crude Oil Exports by Region - 2018(Source: OPEC ; in percent of total volume)

North America 3% Latin America

22%

Eastern Europe and Eurasia

8%

Western Europe

1%

Middle East 54%

Africa 9%

Asia Pacific3%

Global Proven Crude Oil Reserves by Region - 2018(Source: OPEC ; in percent of total volume)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MEG Crude Oil Production by Country - last 10 years(source: OPEC/JODI; in million barrels per day)

S. Arabia Iraq Iran UAE Kuwait Oman Qatar Others

mln

bp

d

Unit 14-Jun 07-Jun W-o-W Y-o-Y

BPI TC Avg. usd/day 9,085 9,736 -6.7% -24.5%

BPI 82 TC Avg. usd/day 10,792 11,483 -6.0% -24.0%

P1 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 7,270 8,445 -13.9% -39.4%

P2 Skaw-Gib Trip East usd/day 16,659 17,432 -4.4% -13.0%

P3 Pacific r/v usd/day 9,505 10,058 -5.5% -19.1%

1 Yr TC Period Panamax usd/day 11,000 11,000 +0.0% -12.0%

1 Yr TC Period Kamsarmax usd/day 12,500 12,500 +0.0% -10.7%


BCI TC Avg. usd/day 14,203 15,007 -5.4% -21.0%

C8 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 10,550 11,845 -10.9% -44.5%

C14 China-Brazil r/v usd/day 15,518 15,068 +3.0% -13.2%

C10 Pacific r/v usd/day 16,063 17,817 -9.8% -6.8%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 16,500 16,000 +3.1% -12.0%

dry cargo chartering

Capesize market had a not very strong beginning last week, as 5 TC average lost almost $1,000/d despite gaining a bit again at the end of the week. Main activity was on the Tubarao/Qingdao standard route; Pacific instead was a bit quieter, mostly by the end of the week. The Tubarao/Qingdao opened the week at $16.80/mt, losing 30 cents on Wednesday but closing on Friday at $17.15/mt due to some fresh cargoes from Brazil fixed around low $17’s/mt. The West Australia/Qingdao standard route was traded at $7.68/mt on Monday, but lost 30 cents during the week. Meanwhile, a couple of fixtures were concluded on the Saldanha Bay/Qingdao trade around very low $13’s/mt. Not much activity on the front haul, which ranging between high $27,000/d and low $28,000/d; back hauls kept on consolidate its positive level, remaining at $1,300/d. On period a quite nice ship was fixed for 1 year at $16,500/d.

Capesize Market

Rates

Panamax Market

Rates

Last week saw rates in the ECSA area easing, with Kamsarmax achieving $15,750/d + $575k basis ECSAm dely, while basis India similar size were achieving around $12,500/13,000/d. For trip to Atlantic a 79k dwt was reported fixed for trip redely Skaw-Passero at $14,000/d and $15,400/d was reported on an 82k dwt for trip via ECSAm with redely Jorf Lasfar. An 81k dwt was reported fixed for trip via Kamsar to China at $20,750/d basis Gib dely. Basis Cont dely, Kamsarmax were seeing levels in the low-mid $9,000/d for trips via Baltic to Cont, while for trip to Cont owners ratings were around $12,000/d for trips via EMed redely Passero. In FEast a 75k dwt was reported fixed with petcoke via Japan at $10,250/d basis Tianjin, while trip via Australia was fixed on an 82k dwt at $10,000/d basis Panjin for redely full India. Similar vessels were reported done for quick trip via Indonesia basis South China at $9,500/d redely Malaysia and with similar delivery a 75k was fixed for trip via West Australia to MEG with Alumina at $9,750/d.

3

0

7,000

14,000

21,000

28,000

35,000

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

BCI TC and Capesize 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BCI TC

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

BPI TC and Panamax 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BPI TC

market report - week 24/2019


Supramax were active with several fixtures higher than $1/1,500/d compared to previous week. Rates for Supras for USG to Cont/Med were in the $13,000's/d while Ultra were easely getting $19/20,000/d for grain cargoes to East and in the 16000 for tarv with grains. Handysize were improving as well, as more cargoes came out; rates were in the $8,000’s/d for USG/Med on 32/35k dwt and in the $10,000's/d for larger 37/39k dwt. ECSAm market started a significant slowdown, apart on Handysize which remained pretty much stable: rates for trip to Cont/Med area were still in the $10,500/d mark and still around $14,000/d for trip Feast. On Supramax levels were in the $14,000/d for trip to Cont and $15,000/d for trip to Med, with the trend getting downwards. Trip FEast saw Supramax asking $13,250/d + $325k bb and getting around $13,000/d + $300k bb, while Ultramax were getting $14,250/d + $425k bb Feast and $16,000/d for trip to Cont/Med.

Supramax & Handysize Market

Ind

ia

S A

fric

a

Cont market for Handy and Supramax was stable last week. One Handy was reported fixed basis dely ARA range for trip with scrap via Baltic for interCont RV at $8,000/d. Level for scrap to EMed on a modern 35k dwt were in the region of $8,500/d bss dely ARA range, while a 37k dwt was reported fixed for a trip into Morocco/WMed range at $11,000/d (probably because of the worse position compared to EMed/BlSea area). On Supra/Ultramax, albeit lack of fixtures, for front haul a nice 58k dwt was rated $16,000/d for a trip to Spore/Japan range against Charterer at $14,500/d. Stable market in Med too, with a note of positivism amongst owners in particular for Supramaxes, where we can notice some $14/15,000/d fixtures ex Canakkale to FEast and some numbers in the $7/8,000/d for trips to Cont. Slightly less strong were rates for trips back to USG/ECSAm where the average bids seemed to be in the $5,000/d, and on which some big Handies (38/39k dwt) being fixed at $6/6,500/d ex Canakkale. On smaller Handies (30/35k dwt) rates are stable at $5/6,000/d for trip to Cont and $11,000/d for trip to FEast, while trips back to USG/ECSA were struggling to be worth more than $4,500/5,000/d.

Demand kept increasing during the week. From MEG a 56k dwt was fixed bss UAE port dely at $13,000/d levels for redely WCI with limestones. Thereafter another spot 56k dwt was fixed bss Fujairah dely at $7,500/d for trip from MEG to ECI and redely bss Fujairah. By mid-week a 56k dwt was understood fixed at high $9,000/d levels for trip via WCI to Bangladesh, which seems to be a bit low. In wci the prevailing cyclone caused delays at many ports. A 51k dwt open WCI was rumoured fixed at $12,000/d dop levels for a coastal trip with petcoke within WCI, and a 58k dwt was heard fixed at mid $12,000/d aps loadport in WCI levels for salt to China. In SAfrica a 63k dwt was fixed at low $13,000/d aps + low $300k’s bb for trip via SAfrica to Pacific; thereafter a 61k dwt was heard on subs for trip via SAfrica to Pak at levels tic over mid $12,000/d aps + mid $200k bb levels.

Far

East

P

acif

ic

The Supra/Ultramax spot chartering demand was still not active enough to avoid rates to decrease further; this became more evident even for Ultramaxes, which were keeping on dominating market trades. A 60k dwt delivered passing SKorea was fixed at $8,000/d via NPacific back to Japan, rumors reported a larger Ultramax near to get booked at $8,000/d from NChina to SEAsia, while another 63k dwt size delivering Philippines got $7,000/d via ECAustralia to the FEast. A similar type chartered from Shanghai area performed a backhaul trip with steels via SKorea to the USG at $3,350/d for the first 60 days and $10,500/d thereafter. Trading between SEAsia to NFEast saw another similar Ultramax at $9,200/d from SVietnam via Indo to SKorea, while with delivery Shanghai area the rate agreed for this type of vessel via Indo to China was in the high $7,000’s/d. A 60k dwt delivered at NChina was booked for 1 year redely ww at $10,900/d. For the smaller size we only saw a 57,900 dwt fixed from NChian to ECI and a 30k dwt delivering at SKorea agreeing $5,000/d for a trip with billets from CIS Pacific to SEAsia.

US

Atl

anti

c

Sou

th A

mer

ica

4

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

BSI TC and Supramax 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BSI TC

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

BHSI TC and Handysize 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BHSI TC



BSI TC Avg. usd/day 8,152 8,173 -0.3% -30.8%

S4A 58 USG-Skaw/Pass usd/day 12,669 12,734 -0.5% -25.5%

S9 58 WAF-ECSA-Med usd/day 9,171 9,064 +1.2% -3.3%

S1B 58 Canakkale-FEast usd/day 14,136 13,564 +4.2% -11.7%

S11 58 Pacific r/v usd/day 6,891 6,970 -1.1% -38.3%


BHSI TC Avg. usd/day 6,276 6,175 +1.6% -27.2%


Sup

ram

axH

and

y

Rates

N E

uro

pe

M

ed

ite

rran

ean

Unit 14-Jun 07-Jun W-o-WPremium/

Discount

Jun (19) usd/day 14,954 15,000 -0.3% +5.3%

Jul (19) usd/day 16,467 15,833 +4.0% +15.9%

Aug (19) usd/day 16,917 16,125 +4.9% +19.1%

Q3 (19) usd/day 16,933 16,389 +3.3% +19.2%

Q4 (19) usd/day 18,729 18,313 +2.3% +31.9%

Q1 (20) usd/day 12,529 12,154 +3.1% -11.8%

Cal 20 usd/day 14,687 14,392 +2.0% +3.4%

Cal 21 usd/day 13,275 13,250 +0.2% -6.5%

Cal 22 usd/day 13,354 13,400 -0.3% -6.0%

Jun (19) usd/day 9,613 9,979 -3.7% +5.8%

Jul (19) usd/day 10,113 10,158 -0.4% +11.3%

Aug (19) usd/day 10,450 10,308 +1.4% +15.0%

Q3 (19) usd/day 10,333 10,278 +0.5% +13.7%

Q4 (19) usd/day 10,267 10,204 +0.6% +13.0%

Q1 (20) usd/day 8,479 8,683 -2.3% -6.7%

Cal 20 usd/day 8,968 8,950 +0.2% -1.3%

Cal 21 usd/day 8,467 8,504 -0.4% -6.8%

Cal 22 usd/day 8,125 8,083 +0.5% -10.6%

Jun (19) usd/day 8,229 8,529 -3.5% +0.9%

Jul (19) usd/day 9,046 9,379 -3.6% +11.0%

Aug (19) usd/day 9,879 9,929 -0.5% +21.2%

Q3 (19) usd/day 9,686 9,818 -1.3% +18.8%

Q4 (19) usd/day 9,708 9,854 -1.5% +19.1%

Q1 (20) usd/day 8,358 8,388 -0.4% +2.5%

Cal 20 usd/day 9,175 8,950 +2.5% +12.5%

Cal 21 usd/day 8,871 8,802 +0.8% +8.8%

Cal 22 usd/day 8,508 8,479 +0.3% +4.4%

Jun (19) usd/day 6,425 6,450 -0.4% +2.4%

Jul (19) usd/day 6,963 6,975 -0.2% +10.9%

Aug (19) usd/day 7,363 7,388 -0.3% +17.3%

Q3 (19) usd/day 7,383 7,404 -0.3% +17.6%

Q4 (19) usd/day 8,225 8,238 -0.2% +31.1%

Q1 (20) usd/day 7,338 7,331 +0.1% +16.9%

Cal 20 usd/day 8,075 8,056 +0.2% +28.7%

Cal 21 usd/day 7,931 7,913 +0.2% +26.4%

Cal 22 usd/day 7,888 7,869 +0.2% +25.7%

Han

dys

ize

Cap

esi

zeP

anam

axSu

pra

max

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21

Handysize Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000


Supramax Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

8,000

16,000

24,000

32,000


Capesize Forward Curve (usd/day)


Dry Bulk FFAs (Baltic Forward Assessments)

5

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000


Panamax Forward Curve (usd/day)



TD1 MEG-USG ws 18.73 17.64 +6.2% -0.6%

TD1 MEG-USG usd/day -6,788 -8,599 +21.1% +56.6%

TD2 MEG-Spore ws 40.88 38.83 +5.3% -15.0%

TD3C MEG-China ws 40.21 38.17 +5.3% -15.7%

TD3C MEG-China usd/day 14,704 12,110 +21.4% +51.3%

TD15 WAF-China ws 41.88 39.56 +5.9% -12.7%

Avg. VLCC TCE usd/day 3,958 1,756 +125.4% +233.4%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 34,250 34,000 +0.7% +71.3%

TD6 BSea-Med ws 90.56 81.56 +11.0% +4.5%

TD6 BSea-Med usd/day 22,572 16,345 +38.1% +122.3%

TD20 WAF-Cont ws 80.80 71.36 +13.2% +18.5%

MEG-EAST ws 75.00 70.00 +7.1% +7.1%

TD23 MEG-Med ws 55.00 29.33 +87.5% +71.9%

Avg. Suezmax TCE usd/day 22,565 16,872 +33.7% +175.0%


TD7 NSea-Cont ws 92.92 98.89 -6.0% -18.4%

TD7 NSea-Cont usd/day 8,511 12,399 -31.4% -9.4%

TD17 Baltic-UKC ws 68.06 73.61 -7.5% -32.3%

TD17 Baltic-UKC usd/day 8,288 12,142 -31.7% -54.1%

TD19 Med-Med ws 91.67 81.00 +13.2% -22.1%

TD19 Med-Med usd/day 10,757 5,933 +81% -8.6%

TD8 Kuwait-China ws 108.00 107.83 +0.2% +13.8%

TD8 Kuwait-China usd/day 14,518 14,032 +3.5% +511.3%

TD9 Caribs-USG ws 89.38 88.44 +1.1% -36.2%

TD9 Caribs-USG usd/day 7,046 6,649 +6.0% -48.9%

Avg. Aframax TCE usd/day 10,751 11,135 -3.4% +5.5%


VLC

CSu

ezm

axA

fram

ax

tanker chartering

VLCCs market was mostly steady last week, as the expected knock-on effect after Thursday morning’s tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman didn't materialize yet. At the same time, Suezmax rates were in the rise both in West, with 130,000 mt West Africa/Europe up to WS80 and 135,000 mt Black Sea/Med up to WS90, and East where, by Friday, 140,000 mt Basrah/West went at least twice on subs at WS55. Aframax rates in Med grew up to WS90 level, as expected from the end of last week. Market remained weak in North West Europe, with 100,000 mt ex Baltic to UKC paying below WS70, and maintained steady levels in the Americas and in East.

Crude Oil Tanker Market

6

Rates


-10,000

5,000

20,000

35,000

50,000

65,000

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

VLCC MEG-Far East (usd/day)

-5,0005,000

15,00025,00035,00045,00055,00065,00075,000

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

TD6 Suexmax BSea-Med (usd/day)

-15,000-5,0005,000

15,00025,00035,00045,00055,000

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

TD19 Aframax Med-Med (usd/day)

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000

May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19

1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

VLCC Suezmax Aframax

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,000

Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19

1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

LR2 MR2

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

MR Pacific Basket (usd/day)

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

MR Atlantic Basket (usd/day)

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

TC1 LR2 MEG-Japan (usd/day)

tanker chartering

Product Tanker Market

Delays at Turkish Straits for Daylight Restricted Vessels

East of suez, LR2 rates softened to WS100 for MEG/Japan voyages basis 75,000 mt while MEG/UKC reached $2.075 mln and LR1 rates for East moved slightly downward at WS112.5. West of Suez, LR2 and LR1 trading UKC/Japan ended the week at $1.8 mln and $1.5 mln respectively. In Med, rates for clean Handysize on CrossMed lost ground and settled at WS135 together with Black Sea/Med ones that shifted to WS150 mark. In Cont, clean Handysize for Baltic/UKC eased to WS112.5 and CrossCont followed at WS102.5 level. Clean MR rates on Cont/TA routes lost almost 20 WS points week-on-week and closed at WS100 level basis 37,000 mt, while back hauls (TC14 route) gained 5 WS points to WS80 basis 38,000 mt. The dirty Handysize and MRs market in Med saw another drop in rates last week. Mainly due to too few cargoes in the market and a longer tonnage list full of prompt vessels, the 30,000 mt CrossMed and Black Sea/Med trades slipped down to WS140/145 and WS150/150 levels respectively. Contrary to the Med, Cont market for Handysize was firm with rates for 30,000 mt CrossCont reaching WS125 due to a slightly higher number of cargoes around coupled with the usually thin tonnage list. Panamaxes were again quiet and stable at WS100 basis 55,000 mt for Cont or Med/TA .



TC1 MEG-Japan ( 7 5 k ) ws 99.69 105.63 -5.6% +2.2%

TC1 MEG-Japan ( 7 5 k ) usd/day 13,911 15,326 -9.2% +117.8%

TC8 MEG-UKC ( 6 5 k ) usd/mt 27.64 28.00 -1.3% +15.5%

TC5 MEG-Japan ( 5 5 k ) ws 112.28 116.72 -3.8% -1.4%

TC5 MEG-Japan ( 5 5 k ) usd/day 12,277 12,968 -5.3% +78.5%

TC2 Cont-USAC ( 3 7 k ) ws 99.44 118.33 -16.0% -10.3%

TC2 Cont-USAC ( 3 7 k ) usd/day 4,995 8,368 -40.3% +193.5%

TC14 USG-Cont ( 3 8 k ) ws 78.21 70.00 +11.7% +15.3%

TC14 USG-Cont ( 3 8 k ) usd/day 1,603 83 +1831.3% +137.3%

TC9 Baltic-UKC ( 2 2 k ) ws 112.50 120.00 -6.3% -23.7%

TC6 Med-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 135.31 143.13 -5.5% +0.2%

TC7 Spore-ECAu ( 3 0 k ) ws 160.56 159.38 +0.7% -10.4%

TC7 Spore-ECAu ( 3 0 k ) usd/day 13,331 12,915 +3.2% +26.7%

TC11 SK-Spore ( 4 0 k ) usd/mt 12.43 8.96 +38.7% +50.3%

MR Pacific Basket usd/day 15,738 13,448 +17.0% +156.5%

MR Atlantic Basket usd/day 8,803 9,567 -8.0% +249.9%

LR2 1 Year TC Period usd/day 21,000 21,000 +0.0% +50.0%

MR2 1 Year TC Period usd/day 14,500 14,500 +0.0% +3.6%

TD12 Cont-USG ( 5 5 k ) ws 100.00 98.44 +1.6% -4.5%

TD18 Baltic-UKC ( 3 0 K) ws 125.00 118.75 +5.3% -30.7%

BSea-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 155.0 167.5 -7.5% +3.3%

Med-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 145.0 155.0 -6.5% +3.6%

Cle

anD

irty

Rates


Northbound days 2.0 1.5 +33.3% +33.3%

Southbound days 2.0 1.5 +33.3% +33.3%

600

700

800

900

1,000

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

Shanghai Container Freight Index

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

13/6/18 13/10/18 13/2/19 13/6/19

Geared - 1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

2500 1700 1100

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

13/6/18 13/10/18 13/2/19 13/6/19

Gearless - 1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

4250 3500 2700


ConTex index 398 399 -0.3% -25.5%

4250 teu (1Y, g’less) usd/day 9,043 9,037 +0.1% -31.4%



2500 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 8,898 9,828 -9.5% -27.1%



Last week ConTex lost 1 point reflecting the current charter market situation for the feeder segments. At the same time, we recorded a surge of fixtures in the classic Panamax segment.

containers

VHSS Containership Timecharter Assessment (source: Hamburg Shipbrokers’ Association)

Containership Market

Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange)

8


Comprehensive Index index 779 783 -0.5% #N/A

Services:

Shanghai - North Europe usd/teu 745 779 -4.4% #N/A

Shanghai - Mediterranean usd/teu 741 745 -0.5% #N/A

Shanghai - WC USA usd/feu 1,416 1,439 -1.6% #N/A

Shanghai - EC USA usd/feu 2,464 2,502 -1.5% #N/A

Shanghai - Dubai usd/teu 820 840 -2.4% #N/A

Shanghai - Santos usd/teu 1,774 1,330 +33.4% #N/A

Shanghai - Singapore usd/teu 140 140 +0.0% #N/A


Recent Fixtures

Vessel Name Built TEUs TEU@14 Gear Fixture Period Rates

Csl Sophie 2005 4,738 3,272 no fixed to Zim 2/3 m $9,750/d

Hobby Hunter 2009 4,255 2,811 no extended to Cosco 6 m $11,750/d

Gerhard Schulte 2006 3,534 2,413 no extended to Acl 3/5 m $10,750/d

Cape Araxos 2016 2,202 1,574 yes extended to Gsl 9/12 m $12,400/d

Type Size Built Yard Buyers Price Comment

Bulk 208,000 dwt 2021 Qingdao Beihai Shandong Shipping 55.5 each 4 units

Crude 158,000 dwt 1H 2021 Sumitomo Avin International 60 each 2 units

Crude 115,000 dwt 2Q 2021 New Times Chartworld Shipping n.a. 4+2 units

100

105

110

115

120

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

Yen/USD Exchange

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

USD/Euro Exchange

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19

Newbuilding Prices (usd mln)

Ultramax LR2 MR2

3 yrs 5 yrs 7 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs 20 yrs

USD 1.82 1.84 1.92 2.04 2.18 2.24

Euro -0.29 -0.16 0.00 0.25 0.57 0.73

Libor USD Libor Euro Euribor Euro

6 Months 2.28 -0.34 -0.26

12 Months 2.25 -0.25 -0.17

In the drybulk, a substantial order was placed by Chinese Owners Shandong Shipping for 4 x Newcastlemax around 208,000 dwt at Qingdao Beihai, China. Price is $55.5 mln each (Tier-III, scrubber fitted) and deliveries in 2021. NB contract is supported by 5 years COA with Vale, Brazil. In the tankers, Avin International of Greece has ordered 2 x 158,000 dwt Suezmax tankers at Hyundai Heavy Industries, Korea for deliveries 1H 2021. Price is region $60 mln each, vessels will be tier III and scrubber fitted. Chinese New Times Shipbuilding has received an order for 4+2 Aframax tankers with options to convert them to LR2 from Chartworld Shipping. Deliveries are set as from 2Q 2021. Gas sector has also registered new orders with Korean shipyards in the highlights. Daewoo has received an order for one 169,500 cbm LNG carrier for delivery in 2022 from Maran Gas of Greece (price undisclosed), whilst Hyundai Heavy Ind has agreed for 1+1 x 86,000 cbm LPG carriers with compatriots KSS Line. Price is $74 mln (scrubber fitted). Vessels will have 5 year t/c at $830,000/month.

Newbuilding Market

Newbuilding Reported Orders

Indicative Newbuilding Prices (China)

sale & purchase

Interest Rates

Interest Rate Swaps

9

Unit 01-Jun-19 M-o-M Y-o-Y

Capesize usd mln 48.9 -0.4% +4.5%

Ultramax usd mln 26.1 -0.4% +1.5%

Supramax usd mln 23.1 -0.1% +1.8%

VLCC usd mln 83.9 -0.2% +3.5%

LR2 Coated usd mln 46.5 -0.5% +3.5%

MR2 Coated usd mln 33.5 -0.4% +0.1%

14-Jun 07-Jun W-o-W Y-o-Y

USD/Euro 1.13 1.13 -0.1% -4.0%

Yen/USD 108.6 108.2 +0.3% -1.9%

SK Won/USD 1,185 1,181 +0.3% +9.4%

Exchange Rates


TYPE VESSEL NAME DWT BLT YARD BUYERS PRICE NOTE

Bulk AGTR Ambition 99,999 2019 Tsuneishi Zhoushan European buyers

low 30 enbloc, price rgn

Bulk AGTR Blossom 99,999 2019 Tsuneishi Zhoushan low 30

Bulk Hector 52,500 2002 Kanasashi Chinese buyers 6.66

Bulk Las Tortolas 50,600 2011 Oshima C. Of Navision 12.25 Open Hatch / DD

due August

Prod Ever Rich N 18 105,400 2003 Sumitomo Greek buyers 14.5

Prod FPMC 22 50,900 2010 STX

European buyers 45

enbloc, price region. FPMC 22

zinc coated. others epoxy

Prod FPMC 21 50,900 2009 Jinling

Prod FPMC 20 50,900 2009 Jinling

350

400

450

500

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

SubCon Demo Assessment (usd/ldt)

Dirty Tnk Clean Tnk Dry Bulk

15

20

25

30

35

40

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

Secondhand Values (usd mln)

Kamsarmax Aframax MR


Dry Bulk usd/ldt 419.8 420.0 -0.0% -3.7%

Dirty Tanker usd/ldt 424.8 425.8 -0.2% -2.8%

Clean Tanker usd/ldt 421.0 424.0 -0.7% -4.5%

sale & purchase

Secondhand Market

Baltic Secondhand Assessments

Baltic Ship Recycling Assessment (Subcontinent)

10


Capesize usd mln 35.2 35.3 -0.2% +3.4%

Kamsarmax usd mln 23.2 22.9 +1.7% +6.8%

Supramax usd mln 17.5 17.5 -0.0% -4.6%

VLCC usd mln 68.6 68.4 +0.3% +11.2%

Aframax usd mln 35.3 34.9 +1.0% +17.8%

MR Product usd mln 28.1 28.1 -0.0% +8.4%


In the drybulk, two Post-Panamax resales 'AGTR Ambition' and 'AGTR Blossom' around 99,999 dwt (Loa is 240 m and Beam is 39 m) were resold enbloc to European buyers at region low$30 mln each. Deliveries are within the year. Kamsarmax 'Key Navigator' around 82,000 dwt 2014 (but non-eco) was sold within Japan at $23.25 mln, price is also reflecting BWTS fitted. Finally a very modern, eco-design ultramax 'Ultra Innovation' around 61,200 dwt 2016 built Tadotsu, Japan was privately sold to undisclosed buyers with 1 year T/C back to Owners at index linked rate. In the tanker segment, a clean LR2 'EVER RICH N 18' of around 105,000 dwt Sumitomo 2003 built achieved a strong $14.5 mln. The MR2 sector keeps busy, last week a Japanese owned 'High Efficiency' around 46,500 dwt 2009 built Naikai was sold to European buyers at region $16.2 mln basis BWTS installed during last dry-dock passed recently. Three Formosa Plastic MR2 (one zinc coated, STX 2010 and 2 epoxy coated 2009 Jinling) were sold enbloc to European buyers. Price $45 mln in total.

Secondhand Reported Sales

From June 2019, the Panamax BSPA benchmark changed into a Kamsarmax (82,500mt dwt on 14.43m, LOA 229m, beam 32.25m, 97,000cbm grain) and the benchmark BSPA Aframax specifications was amended to 115,000mt dwt and 44m beam

news

Dry Bulk Commodities

India takes over China as world's top importer of scrap aluminum in Q1 India overtook China as the world's largest scrap aluminum importer in the first quarter of 2019 as its imports rose 18.8% year on year. The south Asian nation imported 334,725 mt of scrap aluminum in the first quarter of 2019, more than 330,567 mt that of China, which has been the world's largest scrap importer for decades. China's scrap aluminum imports fell 32.1% during the period. India's scrap aluminum imports have been on the rise due to higher demand for secondary aluminum alloy used in automobile and housing parts, industry sources said. Meanwhile, China's scrap imports have been on a decline as the government restricted imports on environmental concerns. Russia to introduce ferrous scrap export quota Russia will restrict ferrous scrap exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) by implementation of regional quotas for six months starting on 1 July, the country's government said today. And it stated that from 1 January 2020, exports of ferrous scrap will be conducted exclusively by means of an exchange-based tender process. The government will draft a bill to support this proposal by 1 September. Russian deputy prime minister Dmitry Kozak instructed the trade and industry ministry, economy ministry and federal anti-monopoly watchdog FAS to table the draft bill on quotas before 25 June. Iron ore prices may fall on global supply rebound, higher scrap use in China Elevated iron ore spot prices may see an eventual decline as iron ore supply normalizes from Brazil, more scrap is used in China and its industrial output slows, speakers at the S&P Global Platts Steel Markets Europe conference said. Iron ore spot prices may fall from over $100/dry mt CFR China currently to reach a long-term price of around $60/mt eventually, down to the cash cost of better quality iron ore mines, Marcel Genet, managing director of strategy consultancy Laplace Conseil, said at the conference in Barcelona Thursday. China 2018 thermal power investment lowest since 2004 China’s total investment in thermal power construction last year fell to its lowest level since 2004, according to data from an official industry group, as the country tried to restrict investment in polluting projects. The China Electricity Council (CEC), which represents power generators, plant builders and equipment manufacturers, said investment in new thermal power plants reached 78.6 billion yuan ($11.35 billion) in 2018, down 8.3% on the year and amounting to 28% of total spending in the sector. US soybean export projection for 2018-19 reduced by 75 million bushels in June WASDE report The total estimated US soybean exports for the 2018-19 crop year saw a 75 million-bushel decline from May in the US Department of Agriculture's June World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report released Tuesday. The report showed few adjustments for soybeans from the May report. The lower export estimate was based on low May shipments and a lower import forecast for China, according to the USDA. China seeks to roll July U.S. soybean cargoes to August Chinese soybean buyers are asking sellers in the United States to delay cargoes due to be shipped in July until August, two sources familiar with the matter said, raising fears of cancellations like ones that roiled the market last year. The contract renegotiations come as the world’s top two economies remain locked in a protracted trade war that prompted China to sharply cut purchases of the oilseed from its No. 2 supplier starting from the middle of last year. Ottawa expands insurance for Canadian canola exporters amid China dispute Ottawa increased the insurance coverage available for canola exporters, a government corporation said on Thursday, as it seeks to reduce trade risks amid a dispute with China. China halted purchases of Canadian canola in March, citing pests in shipments by Richardson International Ltd and Viterra Inc. India's Adani expects to ship first coal from Australian mine in two years India’s Adani Enterprises expects to ship first coal from its Australian mine in two years, Adani Mining Chief Executive Lucas Dow said on Thursday, after the company won the green light to start construction on the long delayed project. “The construction period for the mine and rail project is two years. You could be thinking from today in two years’ time people should be expecting we have exported our first piece of coal,” Dow told reporters. Brazil lifts suspension of beef exports to China Brazil's government said on Thursday it has lifted a suspension of beef exports to China after dealing with an atypical case of mad cow disease, sending shares of Marfrig Global Foods, Minerva SA and other Brazilian meatpackers soaring. The suspension had been in effect since June 3 after a case was reported in a 17-year-old cow in the state of Mato Grosso. Cases can arise spontaneously in cattle herds, usually in animals 8 years old or older. Source: Refinitiv / Argus Media / Platts

market report - week 24/2019 11

news

Oil & Gas

Two oil tankers struck in suspected attacks in Gulf of Oman - shipping firms Two oil tankers were hit in suspected attacks in the Gulf of Oman and the crews have been evacuated, shipping firms and industry sources said on 13 June, a month after a similar incident in which four tankers in the region were struck. The Bahrain-based U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet said its were assisting the tankers after receiving distress calls following "reported attacks". The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, part of the Royal Navy, said it was investigating. Middle East tanker attacks send ship insurance soaring The recent spike in attacks on tankers near the Persian Gulf is inflating insurance premiums for ships transiting through the wider Middle East, increasing the cost of transporting oil from the region. Insurance rates for crude oil cargoes loading in the Middle East are now up to 20 times higher following the latest attacks. A shipping insurance source said shipowners now have to pay 0.1%-0.4% of the cargo value in insurance, compared with 0.02% prior to the attacks. "Underwriters are terrified it will happen again over the next few days,“ the source said. Saudi seeks oil supply protection as U.S and Iran face off Saudi Arabia called for swift action to secure Gulf energy supplies and joined the United States in blaming Iran for attacks on two oil tankers in a vital shipping route that have raised fears of broader confrontation in the region. Thursday's tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman exacerbated the antagonistic fallout from similar blasts in May that crippled four vessels. Oil prices slip as economic worries outweigh tanker tensions Oil prices slipped on Monday as signs of an economic slowdown amid international trade disputes began to outweigh supply fears that were stoked by attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman last week and sent prices higher. “China’s industrial output growth (is) falling to the lowest level in 17 years amid trade tensions with the U.S. Today, oil markets will have to digest more demand concerns as India implemented retaliatory tariffs on a number of U.S. goods yesterday,” consultancy JBC Energy said in a note. OPEC cuts oil demand outlook, building case to keep supply curbs OPEC has cut its forecast for growth in global oil demand due to trade disputes and pointed to the risk of a further reduction, building a case for prolonged supply restraint in the rest of 2019. The producer group and its allies meet in the coming weeks to decide whether to maintain supply curbs. Some members are worried about a steep slide in prices, despite demands from U.S. President Donald Trump for action to lower the cost of oil. Saudi Energy Minister hopes OPEC agrees to extend production cut "early July" Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday that OPEC would probably meet in the first week in July in Vienna and that he hoped it would reach consensus on extending its agreement to cut oil output. Falih said earlier this month that OPEC was close to agreeing to extend the agreement beyond June, although more talks were still needed with non-OPEC countries that were part of the production deal. IEA cuts 2019 estimate for oil demand growth on global trade worries The outlook for oil demand growth in 2019 has dimmed due to worsening prospects for world trade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday, although stimulus packages and developing countries should boost growth going into 2020. The Paris-based IEA, which coordinates the energy policies of industrial nations, revised down its 2019 demand growth estimate by 100,000 barrels to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), but said it would climb to 1.4 million bpd for 2020. IEA flags larger seasonal refinery run rise this year Seasonal refining activity will raise global throughput by 4.2mn b/d by August from May levels, according to the IEA, with the ramp-up concentrated in the western hemisphere. The increase represents a firm rise from 2018, when throughput climbed by 3.3mn b/d between May and August. Refinery runs in the Atlantic basin, led by the US and Europe, will increase by 0.9mn b/d on a monthly basis, the IEA said in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR). The IEA forecasts throughput growth to climb by 1.1mn b/d year on year to 83.7mn b/d in 2020 — more than double the rise it foresees for this year. The IEA forecasts refined product demand to grow by 0.9mn b/d. S.Korea stops Iranian oil imports in May as sanction waivers end South Korea halted all imports of Iranian oil in May, customs data showed on Saturday, as waivers on U.S. sanctions against Iran ended at the start of last month. The world's fifth-largest crude oil importer was among countries granted six-month waivers by the United States in November last year, and resumed Iranian oil imports from January this year after a four-month hiatus. Source: Refinitiv / Argus Media / Platts

market report - week 24/2019 12

300

400

500

600

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

Wheat and Corn Prices (usd/t)

Corn Wheat

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

Steel Prices in China (rmb/t)

Rebar Plate

40

60

80

100

120

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

Iron Ore and Coal Prices (usd/t)

Steam Coal Iron Ore

40

50

60

70

80

90

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

Brent and WTI Oil Prices (usd/bbl)

Brent WTI

200

400

600

800

14/6/18 14/10/18 14/2/19 14/6/19

Bunker Prices @ Singapore (usd/t)

IFO 380 IFO 180 MGO


Wheat usd/t 544.3 496.5 +9.6% +9.9%

Corn usd/t 462.0 411.3 +12.3% +28.7%

Soybeans usd/t 326.4 849.5 -61.6% -64.0%

Palm Oil usd/t 483.1 480.4 +0.6% -17.0%


Iron Ore (Platts) usd/t 104.3 97.8 +6.7% +59.6%

Iron Ore China @Tangshan rmb/t 824.0 776.0 +6.2% +72.4%

Rebar in China rmb/t 3,964 4,008 -1.1% -4.7%

Plate in China rmb/t 4,098 4,122 -0.6% -4.2%

HR Coil in China rmb/t 3,953 3,992 -1.0% -10.7%

CR Sheet in China rmb/t 4,294 4,325 -0.7% -8.5%


Steam @ Richards Bay usd/t 63.2 63.3 -0.2% -40.3%

Steam @ Newcastle usd/t 71.9 73.0 -1.6% -37.5%

Coking Coal Australia usd/t 196.0 199.0 -1.5% -1.9%


Crude Oil Brent usd/bbl 61.7 63.5 -2.9% -15.3%

Crude Oil WTI usd/bbl 52.3 54.2 -3.6% -18.1%

Crude Oil Dubai usd/bbl 59.9 62.0 -3.3% -19.5%

Natural Gas Henry Hub usd/mmbtu 2.40 2.33 +3.0% -21.1%

Gasoline Nymex usd/gal 1.72 1.74 -1.1% -14.4%

ICE Gasoil usd/t 564.0 558.0 +1.1% -11.2%

Naphtha Tokyo usd/t 466.8 467.1 -0.1% -26.6%

Jet-Kerosene Asia usd/bbl 73.5 73.3 +0.3% -14.9%


Rotterdam usd/t 356.0 373.0 -4.6% -16.0%

Gibraltar usd/t 381.0 393.5 -3.2% -17.2%

Singapore usd/t 372.5 395.0 -5.7% -17.2%

Rotterdam usd/t 385.0 405.5 -5.1% -14.7%

Gibraltar usd/t 411.5 430.5 -4.4% -15.3%

Singapore usd/t 413.5 427.0 -3.2% -14.5%

Rotterdam usd/t 540.0 546.0 -1.1% -15.6%

Gibraltar usd/t 581.0 586.0 -0.9% -17.1%

Singapore usd/t 560.5 566.0 -1.0% -16.8%

IFO

38

0IF

O 1

80

MG

O

commodities

Oil & Gas Prices

Coal Prices

Iron Ore and Steel Prices

Agricultural

Bunker Prices


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