bancosta weekly market report · 2020-03-23 · 6% malaysia 5% taiwan, cn 4% ... in the jan-feb...

weeklymarketreport

Week 12/2020 (16 Mar – 20 Mar)

Comment: Indonesian coal exports in Jan-Feb 2020

107

81

2932

16 1510

50

109

85

26 28

16 1611

70

123

90

25 2320 17

11

77

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

China P.R. India Japan South Korea Malaysia Taiwan, CN Thailand Others

mln

to

nn

es

Indonesia - Coal Exports by Destination in Jan-Dec(mar 2020 ; source: refinitiv ; seaborne only ; in mln tonnes)

2017 (1-12) 2018 (1-12) 2019 (1-12)

China P.R.32%

India23%

Japan7%

South Korea

6%

Malaysia5%

Taiwan, CN4%

Thailand3%

Others20%

Indonesia Coal Exports by Dest. in Jan-Dec 2019 (mar 2020 ; source: refinitiv vessel tracking ; % of export volume)

In the 12 months of calendar 2019,Indonesia exported 386.4 mlntonnes of coal, according to vesseltracking data from Refinitiv.

This represents an increase of+7.1% year-on-year, compared tothe 360.9 mln tonnes exported incalendar 2018.

In terms of trade patterns, thingswere changing fast.

Mainland China is increasingly thedominant destination, accountingfor 31.7% of all exports ofIndonesian coal in 2019. This is upfrom a 30.2% share in 2018.

Total volumes to Mainland Chinaincreased by +12.5% in 2019 to122.5 mln tonnes.

This is a significant accelerationfrom the +2.1% growth seen lastyear.

Volumes also increased to India, by+6.0% y-o-y to 90.1 mln tonnes,from 85.0 mln tonnes in 2018.

India now accounts for 23.3% ofIndonesia’s exports, essentiallysame as the 23.5% in 2018.

Exports to Malaysia were up+25.2% in 2019 to 19.9 mln tonnes.

Malaysia’s share is now 5.2%. Totalshipments to ASEAN countries(excluding Indonesian cabotage)now account for about 10.5% ofIndonesia’s total coal exports.

Shipments to Taiwan have alsojumped, by +8.9% year-on-year in2019 to 17.1 mln tonnes.

Taiwan’s share was 4.4%, same asa year ago.

On the other hand, exports toSouth Korea crashed last year, by-19.0% y-o-y to 23.0 mln tonnes,from 28.4 mln tonnes in 2018.

This follows on a -11.8% declinealready seen last year.

South Korea now accounts for 6.0%of Indonesia’s coal exports, downfrom 7.9% in 2018.

Volumes to Japan have alsocontracted in 2019, by -2.3% year-on-year to 25.3 mln tonnes.

This follows an even deepercontraction of -9.4% recorded theprevious year.

Japan now accounts for 6.5% ofIndonesia’s exports.

What about 2020? What we haveseen so far is definitely not whatyou would expect, given the stateof world affairs…..

In the Jan-Feb period of 2020,Indonesia shipped 64.5 mlntonnes of coal, which was up+3.4% y-o-y.

Shipments from Indonesia toChina, at 21.5 mln tonnes, are avery strong +18.9% year-on-year

in the first 2 months of 2020.

China was the destination of 32.6%of all Indonesian coal exports inthese two months.

However we have to rememberthat this is an expected reboundafter very modest Chinese importsin Q4 of last year, which were lowdue to annual quotas on importsimposed by the government.

Another factor which contributedto the increase in Chinesepurchases from Indonesia lastmonth was the logisticaldisruptions and manpower issueswhich affected domestic miningand distribution of domestic coal –making coastal power plants morereliant on seaborne imports.

Exports to Japan are alsosignificantly up +30.9% year-on-year to 5.38 mln tonnes in the first2 months of 2020.

Those to ASEAN countries(primarily Malaysia and Thailand)are also up by a very strong +46.5%year-on-year to 8.4 mln tonnes.

On the other hand, shipments toIndia are down by -14.2% year-on-year to 14.3 mln tonnes.

Volumes to South Korea contractedeven more sharply by -20.3% year-on-year to 3.3 mln tonnes.

COMMENT MARKET REPORT – WEEK 48/2019 2COMMENT 2

INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS IN JAN-FEB 2020

MARKET REPORT – WEEK 12/2020

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

BPI 82 TC and Kamsarmax 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BPI TC

Unit 20-Mar 13-Mar W-o-W Y-o-Y

BPI 74 TC Avg. usd/day 5,923 7,725 -23.3% -26.9%

BPI 82 TC Avg. usd/day 7,259 9,061 -19.9% -26.8%

P1_82 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 6,340 8,375 -24.3% -22.1%

P2_82 Skaw-Gib Trip F. East usd/day 16,223 18,041 -10.1% +1.4%

P3_82 Pacific r/v usd/day 5,738 7,296 -21.4% -39.9%

1 Yr TC Period Panamax usd/day 10,000 10,250 -2.4% -2.4%

1 Yr TC Period Kamsarmax usd/day 11,500 11,750 -2.1% -2.1%

0

7,000

14,000

21,000

28,000

35,000

42,000

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

BCI TC and Capesize 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BCI TC


BCI TC Avg. usd/day 4,067 2,797 +45.4% -9.8%

C8 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 6,310 3,915 +61.2% +25.0%

C14 China-Brazil r/v usd/day 3,036 2,309 +31.5% -41.2%

C10 Pacific r/v usd/day 3,796 3,365 +12.8% -20.0%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 14,000 14,500 -3.4% +27.3%

Due to the falling bunker pricesrates dropped, but TCE increasedquite significantly gaining almost$1,500/d from Friday to Friday.Tubarao-Qingdao was still underpressure losing almost $1/mt in afew days and from mid $10/mt tohigh $9/mt for mid April laycan.Brazil RV was stable around$2,250/d.W Australia-Qingdao was swingingwith rates that went from$4.45/mt to $4.30/mt after

bottoming at $4.20/mt onThursday for early April laycan.Pacific RV rates remained for allweek in the mid/high $3,000/d.Saldanha Bay-Qingdao routefollowed Tubarao-Qingdao pathgoing down as well and reachingon Friday $7.75/mt level.

In the Atlantic basin the marketwas pushing a bit more: rates onFronthaul routes gained $1,000/dand rates on Bolivar-Rotterdam

route were $0.50/mt higher formost of the week and then wereweaker again on Friday, closing at$5.90/mt.Little activity reported on period.

CHARTERING 3

DRY CARGOCAPESIZE MARKET

PANAMAX MARKETThe beginning of the week wasslow in the Panamax segment withlittle activity due to the crisis.Rates from the ECSAm seemed tobe further weakening. As aconsequence of more severequarantine implementations, thePacific basin appeared to be morestandoff compared to previousweek: owners received lower bidsbut, similarly to the Atlantic basin,the market was tough due to thelack of action.

Both on the TA and on the PacificRV routes dropped the number offixtures due to the weak demand.Most trade was predominantlyfrom Brazil: a 82,000 dwt unit withdely Brazil was fixed at $13,000/d +$300,000 bb and another 80,000dwt was fixed for a trip to Med at$9,750/d. In addition, the decliningmarket withheld a further blow ona number of reports as theTimbues district ceased all portactivities until 3rd April due to the

Covid-19 outbreak.Little activity reported also fromAsia: a 81,000 dwt with dely NChina was fixed at $6,500/d for atrip to Japan with minerals, whilst a82,000 dwt was fixed at $4,250/dfor a coal trip via Indonesia withredely S China.Weaker bunker prices furtherencouraged owners to look atdeals with longer duration.


On the Handies not a lot of fixtureswere reported, but there wererumours about charterers ready topay $20,000/d for a fancy 37,000dwt unit basis dely dop Cont fortrips to SE Asia.On the repositioning business,owners of nice 37,000 dwt unitsasked for $12,000/d basis dely dopCont with Brazil destination. Afancy 34,000 dwt unit wasreported fixed around $10,000/dbasis dely Cont for trips to N Brazilwith fertilizers.Also on the Supramax not a lot offixtures were reported, but a nice

55,000 dwt Japan built was fixedaround $17,500/d basis dely dop NEurope for trips to E Med withscrap cargo.In BSea the market seemed edgingupwards: the tonnage tightenedthanks to a bit more demand andCoronavirus quarantines that tookaway tonnage from the market.In our opinion, it seemedinconceivable that the disruptionwhich is being imposed on us all,and the major economies in theAtlantic basin, will have anythingbut a strong bearish tone to theforward going market.

On the spot market, Supramaxunits were fixed in the $12,000/dwith dely Med for clinker cargoesto W Af, but rates on MEG-F Eastwere seeing slightly lower numbers- guess that owners East of Suezsaw fewer horrors.Was rumoured that Norden fixed a35,000 dwt unit at or close to$15,000/d with dely Canakkale fora trip to Italy: this value probablyreflected more theunattractiveness of the destinationrather than the market, but theheadline rate was striking.

Another positive week in USG withlarger units stable and increasingrates for Handies. Supramax unitswere fixed in the $15,000s/d for TARV while Ultramax had a premiumof few thousand dollars. OnFronthaul, rates were rangingbetween $20,000/d and up to mid$20,000/d depending on size andwhether petcoke or grains.Rates kept increasing in theHandysize segment on the back ofstrong demand: 32/35,000 dwtunits were fixed in the$11/12,000/d for TA RV, while

larger 36/39,000 dwt units werefixed in the $13,000/d.

The market in ECSAm startedshowing some negative signs: evenif the difference was minimal interm of rates, this showed adifferent trend. Handysize unitswere fixed at $11,250/d for trips toCont/Med, a touch less from$11,500/d. Also trips to F Eastremained pretty stable fixingaround $17,000/d. Brazilian coastaltrips were rumoured around$9,500/d.

A bearish trend was reported inthe Supramax and Ultramaxsegments: Supramax units werefixed at $15,000/d for trips toCont/Med and Ultramax units wererumoured at some $1,000/d more.For trips to F East Tess58 werepaying $13,250/d + 325,000 bbwhile Ultramax units were around$14,000/d + 400,000 bb.

CHARTERING 4

SUPRAMAX & HANDYSIZE MARKET

US ATLANTIC SOUTH AMERICA


N EUROPE MEDITERRANEAN

INDIA S AFRICA

The market within the MEG-IndianOcean started dropping: not manyfixtures came to light though therates discussed were around$9/10,000/d basis Fujairah andnearby delivery.56/57,000 dwt units wererumoured for short period around$10,000/d - low $10,000/d basis

MEG dely.From ECI, Supramax units werefixed early in the week at$11,000/d, about $1,000/d lesscompared to previous week;thereafter rates started droppingfurther.Ports enforcing quarantine broughtdown the activity: an Ultramax

from S Afr to Pacific basin was fixedat mid $12,000/d + low/mid200,000 bb with coal cargo andanother one was rumoured to beon subs with coal to Pakistan at low$11,000/d + mid 100,000 bb basisdely aps Richards Bay.

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

BHSI 28 TC and Handysize 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BHSI TC

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

BSI TC and Supramax 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BSI TC

HANDYSIZE Unit 20-Mar 13-Mar W-o-W Y-o-Y

BHSI_28 TC Avg. usd/day 5,651 5,137 +10.0% -14.9%

BHSI_38 TC Avg. usd/day 7,617 7,103 +7.2% -11.3%

HS2_38 Skaw/Pass-US usd/day 8,232 7,630 +7.9% +19.4%

HS3_38 ECSAm-Skaw/Pass usd/day 11,478 11,472 +0.1% -5.1%

HS4_38 USG-Skaw/Pass usd/day 11,975 11,144 +7.5% +18.4%

HS5_38 SE Asia-Spore/Japan usd/day 5,432 4,988 +8.9% -36.2%

HS6_38 Pacific RV usd/day 5,243 4,656 +12.6% -34.5%

1 Year TC Period 32,000 dwt usd/day 7,500 7,250 +3.4% -18.9%

1 Year TC Period 38,000 dwt usd/day 8,000 8,250 -3.0% n.a.

SUPRAMAX Unit 20-Mar 13-Mar W-o-W Y-o-Y

BSI TC Avg. usd/day 8,146 8,255 -1.3% -9.9%

S4A_58 USG-Skaw/Pass usd/day 15,291 14,259 +7.2% +23.9%

S1C_58 USG-China/S Jpn usd/day 20,909 21,078 -0.8% +21.3%

S9_58 WAF-ECSA-Med usd/day 7,096 8,646 -17.9% -14.7%

S1B_58 Canakkale-FEast usd/day 18,300 18,407 -0.6% +37.9%

S2_58 N China Aus/Pac RV usd/day 6,783 6,586 +3.0% -25.2%

S10_58 S China-Indo RV usd/day 5,713 6,089 -6.2% -32.8%

1 Year TC Period Supramax usd/day 9,000 9,500 -5.3% -10.0%

1 Year TC Period Ultramax usd/day 10,750 10,750 +0.0% -2.3%

CHARTERING 5

SUPRAMAX & HANDYSIZE MARKET

FAR EAST PACIFIC

After quite a long positive trend,the market in F East remainedmore or less stable compared toprevious week: on Supramaxsegment rates even decreased abit, around $200/300/d less on allroutes.Not many fixtures were reportedto China: a 57,000 dwt with delyHong Kong was fixed at $5,000/dfor a trip via Indonesia to China.

A 56,000 dwt unit with delyIndonesia was reported to be fixedat $9,000/d for a trip to Thailandand a similar unit with dely Sporetook $1,000/d less for the sametrip.A 55,000 dwt dely Philippines wasdone at $7,500/d for a trip viaIndonesia to Philippines.Some fixtures were reported toWest direction: a 56,000 dwt dely S

China was rumoured to be fixed at$6,250/d for a trip to Bangladeshwith clinker, a similar size unit withdely Indonesia was done around$7,000/d for a trip toPakistan/Tuticorin range and a55,000 dwt with dely Japan took$3,350/d for a trip to MEG withslags.


0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23

Handysize Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000


Supramax Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000


Panamax Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

9,000

18,000

27,000

36,000

45,000


Capesize Forward Curve (usd/day)

CAPESIZE Unit 20-Mar 13-Mar W-o-WPremium/

Discount

Mar (20) usd/day 3,184 2,938 +8.4% -21.7%

Apr (20) usd/day 6,200 5,141 +20.6% +52.4%

May (20) usd/day 8,100 7,972 +1.6% +99.2%

Mar (20) usd/day 3,184 2,938 +8.4% -21.7%

Q2 (20) usd/day 8,067 7,985 +1.0% +98.4%

Q3 (20) usd/day 12,013 13,388 -10.3% +195.4%

Q4 (20) usd/day 13,856 15,438 -10.2% +240.7%

Cal 21 usd/day 11,841 12,300 -3.7% +191.1%

Cal 22 usd/day 12,759 13,141 -2.9% +213.7%

Mar (20) usd/day 8,192 8,705 -5.9% +12.9%

Apr (20) usd/day 7,420 9,317 -20.4% +2.2%

May (20) usd/day 8,167 9,933 -17.8% +12.5%

Mar (20) usd/day 8,192 8,705 -5.9% +12.9%

Q2 (20) usd/day 8,114 9,872 -17.8% +11.8%

Q3 (20) usd/day 9,795 11,211 -12.6% +34.9%

Q4 (20) usd/day 9,870 11,105 -11.1% +36.0%

Cal 21 usd/day 10,186 10,649 -4.3% +40.3%

Cal 22 usd/day 10,092 10,445 -3.4% +39.0%

Mar (20) usd/day 7,714 7,932 -2.7% -5.3%

Apr (20) usd/day 6,504 8,164 -20.3% -20.2%

May (20) usd/day 6,725 8,386 -19.8% -17.4%

Mar (20) usd/day 7,714 7,932 -2.7% -5.3%

Q2 (20) usd/day 6,741 8,383 -19.6% -17.2%

Q3 (20) usd/day 8,318 9,636 -13.7% +2.1%

Q4 (20) usd/day 8,593 9,593 -10.4% +5.5%

Cal 21 usd/day 8,693 9,254 -6.1% +6.7%

Cal 22 usd/day 8,689 8,996 -3.4% +6.7%

Mar (20) usd/day 6,904 6,941 -0.5% -9.4%

Apr (20) usd/day 7,516 7,854 -4.3% -1.3%

May (20) usd/day 8,360 8,547 -2.2% +9.8%

Mar (20) usd/day 6,904 6,941 -0.5% -9.4%

Q2 (20) usd/day 8,148 8,391 -2.9% +7.0%

Q3 (20) usd/day 9,229 9,316 -0.9% +21.2%

Q4 (20) usd/day 9,129 9,216 -0.9% +19.9%

Cal 21 usd/day 8,779 8,891 -1.3% +15.3%

Cal 22 usd/day 8,729 8,829 -1.1% +14.6%

HANDYSIZE (38k)

SUPRAMAX (58k)

PANAMAX (82k)

CHARTERING 6

DRY BULK FFAS (Baltic Forward Assessments)


10,000

25,000

40,000

55,000

70,000

85,000

Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20

1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

VLCC Suezmax Aframax

-5,000

10,000

25,000

40,000

55,000

70,000

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

TD19 Aframax Med-Med (usd/day)

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

TD6 Suexmax BSea-Med (usd/day)

0

60,000

120,000

180,000

240,000

300,000

360,000

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

TD3C VLCC MEG-Far East (usd/day)VLCC Unit 20-Mar 13-Mar W-o-W Y-o-Y

TD1 MEG-USG ws 99.55 206.82 -51.9% +302.5%

TD1 MEG-USG usd/day 122,349 274,052 -55.4% +3809%

TD2 MEG-Spore ws 115.46 224.58 -48.6% +97.6%

TD3C MEG-China ws 112.50 217.50 -48.3% +95.2%

TD3C MEG-China usd/day 118,289 243,347 -51.4% +316.8%

TD15 WAF-China ws 112.50 195.00 -42.3% +104.5%

Avg. VLCC TCE usd/day 120,319 258,700 -53.5% +859.4%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 65,000 50,000 +30.0% +103.1%

SUEZMAX TD6 BSea-Med ws 126.67 201.67 -37.2% +86.0%

TD6 BSea-Med usd/day 64,432 115,839 -44.4% +1358.7%

TD20 WAF-Cont ws 109.77 219.09 -49.9% +124.2%

MEG-EAST ws 120.00 200.00 -40.0% +60.0%

TD23 MEG-Med ws 90.00 189.29 -52.5% +104.9%

Avg. Suezmax TCE usd/day 59,450 116,357 -48.9% +1482.4%


AFRAMAX TD7 NSea-Cont ws 182.22 121.39 +50.1% +88.1%

TD7 NSea-Cont usd/day 77,287 33,746 +129.0% +1096.0%

TD17 Baltic-UKC ws 157.50 97.22 +62.0% +94.2%

TD17 Baltic-UKC usd/day 73,653 33,992 +116.7% +406.2%

TD19 Med-Med ws 176.94 144.17 +22.7% +81.5%

TD19 Med-Med usd/day 63,799 44,842 +42.3% +487.4%

TD8 Kuwait-China ws 136.94 135.83 +0.8% +26.9%

TD8 Kuwait-China usd/day 37,378 34,183 +9.3% +220.0%

TD9 Caribs-USG ws 173.75 181.25 -4.1% +85.3%

TD9 Caribs-USG usd/day 47,314 47,449 -0.3% +655.2%

Avg. Aframax TCE usd/day 57,022 38,062 +49.8% +436.2%


CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKET

CHARTERING 7

TANKER

After the rush of the previous weekcharterers were more cautiouswith cargoes and few fixtures werereported. As a result, VLCC ratessoftened with MEG-F East dealsfixed during the week in the lowhundreds.The Suezmax segment followed theVLCC path: 130,000 mt cargoesfrom WAfr to Europe were fixed atWS110 level, whilst 135,000 mt

cargoes from BSea to Med were onsubs at WS130. Rates for 140,000mt cargoes from Basrah to Meddecreased assessing at WS90.The market in the Aframaxsegment kept on firming in NWEurope: 100,000 mt cargoes fromBaltic to UKC were fixed up toWS150, whilst in Med rates fromBSea were rumoured at WS190level.

The feeling was that rates havereached the top for the time being,but new quarantine measurescould reserve surprises.70,000 mt cargoes from USG toEurope were fixed at lower levelthan previous week going down toWS155 level.Authorities in Novorossiyskofficially extended quarantinemeasures to 141 countries.



Northbound days 2.0 3.0 -33.3% -66.7%

Southbound days 3.0 3.0 +0.0% -40.0%


TC1 MEG-Japan ( 7 5 k ) ws 176.25 155.75 +13.2% +80.2%

TC1 MEG-Japan ( 7 5 k ) usd/day 51,062 41,548 +22.9% +334.5%

TC8 MEG-UKC ( 6 5 k ) usd/mt 40.69 40.15 +1.3% +41.9%

TC5 MEG-Japan ( 5 5 k ) ws 167.50 161.39 +3.8% +46.0%

TC5 MEG-Japan ( 5 5 k ) usd/day 34,453 31,161 +10.6% +205.7%

TC2 Cont-USAC ( 3 7 k ) ws 173.33 169.17 +2.5% +5.2%

TC2 Cont-USAC ( 3 7 k ) usd/day 24,480 22,209 +10.2% +61.1%

TC14 USG-Cont ( 3 8 k ) ws 116.07 137.14 -15.4% +23.6%

TC14 USG-Cont ( 3 8 k ) usd/day 14,585 17,002 -14.2% +383.3%

TC9 Baltic-UKC ( 2 2 k ) ws 201.43 207.14 -2.8% +6.2%

TC6 Med-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 202.50 180.94 +11.9% +32.2%

TC7 Spore-ECAu ( 3 0 k ) ws 181.67 166.39 +9.2% +7.9%

TC7 Spore-ECAu ( 3 0 k ) usd/day 23,679 19,536 +21.2% +79.9%

TC11 SK-Spore ( 4 0 k ) usd/day 22,106 19,490 +13.4% +137.3%

MR Pacific Basket usd/day 29,975 25,884 +15.8% +138.8%

MR Atlantic Basket usd/day 30,339 31,913 -4.9% +79.6%

LR2 1 Year TC Period usd/day 22,000 22,000 +0.0% +15.8%

MR2 1 Year TC Period usd/day 15,500 15,500 +0.0% +0.0%

TD12 Cont-USG ( 5 5 k ) ws 115.63 104.38 +10.8% +4.2%

TD18 Baltic-UKC ( 3 0 K) ws 155.42 181.67 -14.4% +2.5%

BSea-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 190.0 172.5 +10.1% +35.7%

Med-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 180.0 162.5 +10.8% +38.5%

DELAYS AT TURKISH STRAITS (for daylight restricted vessels)

CHARTERING 8

PRODUCT TANKER MARKETThe LR2 market remainedsustained during the last week.75,000 mt Nap MEG-Japanincreased up to WS175 confirmingthe market uptrend: plus 15 pointsduring the week.90,000 mt Jet MEG-UKC ended at$3.7mln. LR1 followed the sametrend of LR2 despite demand wasnot so big as for the bigger size:55,000 mt Nap MEG-Japan closedat WS165 and 65,000 mt Jet MEG-UKC was confirmed again at$2.6mln.

After the spike of crude carriersreported during previous week,also Handysize and MR segmentsgained a few points thanks toincreasing activity both from Medand BSea. CrossMed rates for30,000 mt cargoes closed the weekat WS180 level and rates on BSea-Med route were rumoured atWS190.Also the MR segment was morebusy with CrossMed rates thatmoved up to 45@130 level.In the N instead the situation was

different: a very little activityreported and a longer position listled rates to soft down to WS155for 30,000 mt cargoes on CrossUKCroute. CrossUKC rates on MRinstead remained at WS130 basis45,000 mt cargoes.Rates on Panamax segment insteadremained firm up to WS117.5 for55,000 mt cargoes, both from Medand UKC.

0

16,000

32,000

48,000

64,000

80,000

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

TC1 LR2 MEG-Japan (usd/day)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

MR Atlantic Basket (usd/day)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

MR Pacific Basket (usd/day)

10,000

14,000

18,000

22,000

26,000

30,000

Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20

1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

LR2 MR2



Comprehensive Index index 898 912 -1.5% +23.4%

Services:

Shanghai - North Europe usd/teu 797 827 -3.6% +16.5%

Shanghai - Mediterranean usd/teu 892 903 -1.2% +21.9%

Shanghai - WC USA usd/feu 1,549 1,610 -3.8% +16.6%

Shanghai - EC USA usd/feu 2,785 2,912 -4.4% +19.1%

Shanghai - Dubai usd/teu 1,015 1,009 +0.6% +76.5%

Shanghai - Santos usd/teu 1,358 1,460 -7.0% +4.6%

Shanghai - Singapore usd/teu 211 191 +10.5% +42.6%


ConTex index 390 393 -0.8% +0.0%

4250 teu (1Y, g’less) usd/day 12,070 12,207 -1.1% +40.0%



2500 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 8,985 9,026 -0.5% -1.9%



FIXTURES

The Contex faced another week-on-week decline across allsegments going back to 12 months

ago levels.The charter market reported plentyof extensions in different areas; the

market however was driven bydemand in Asia.

CHARTERING 9

CONTAINERS

VHSS CONTAINERSHIP TIMECHARTER(source: Hamburg Shipbrokers’ Association)

CONTAINERIZED FREIGHT INDEX(source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange)

Vessel Name Built TEUs TEU@14 Gear Fixture Period Rates

Navarino 2010 8531 6333 no fixed to Msc 11/13 m $23,000/d

Akinada Bridge 2001 5500 4200 no fixed to Zim 6/8 m $16,000/d

Northern General

2008 4294 2920 no fixed to Gfs 3/6 m $11,950/d

Scio Sky 2002 2732 2267 no fixed to SeaLead 3/6 m $8,400/d

As Roberta 2006 1440 1065 no extended to Xpress 3/6 m $7,000/d

Lantau Bay 2007 1049 671 no fixed to Namsung 3/6 m $7,900/d

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

19/3/19 19/7/19 19/11/19 19/3/20

Gearless - 1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

4250 3500 2700

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

19/3/19 19/7/19 19/11/19 19/3/20

Geared - 1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

2500 1700 1100

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

Shanghai Container Freight Index


20-Mar 13-Mar W-o-W Y-o-Y

USD/Euro 1.07 1.11 -3.6% -6.0%

Yen/USD 110.93 107.62 +3.1% +0.8%

SK Won/USD 1,246 1,219 +2.2% +10.5%

Ch Yuan/USD 7.10 7.01 +1.2% +5.7%

3 yrs 5 yrs 7 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs 20 yrs

USD 0.52 0.57 0.67 0.77 0.79 0.79

Euro -0.24 -0.15 -0.04 0.09 0.21 0.25

Libor USD Libor Euro Euribor Euro

6 Months 0.99 -0.29 -0.31

12 Months 0.93 -0.21 -0.19

Unit 01-Mar-20 M-o-M Y-o-Y

Capesize usd mln 47.9 -0.1% -2.1%

Kamsarmax usd mln 26.8 -0.4% -4.2%

Ultramax usd mln 25.3 -0.2% -3.8%

VLCC usd mln 84.0 +0.0% -0.1%

LR2 Coated usd mln 45.5 +0.1% -2.4%

MR2 Coated usd mln 33.2 +0.0% -1.7%

In the dry segment most of theactivity reported during the weekwas at Chinese shipyards, whereBank of Communications FinanceLeasing Co moved for 4 x OreCarriers 325,000 dwt to be built atQingdao Beihai Shipyard withdelivery in 2H 2021/1H 2022.Vessels will be backed by a longterm employment (10/15 years) toVale. Japanese owner Nisshin Kaiun

increased his commitments withNantong Xiangyu for 2 additionalDolphin 64,000 dwt designUltramaxes to be delivered during2021. These two vessels could havebeen already under construction atthe yard. Huayang Shipping signedwith Jiangsu New Yangzijiang anorder for 2 x 52,000 dwtSupramaxes for delivery Feb-May2022: vessels to be used for China

Coastal trades.In the gas segment a LPG carrier89,000 cbm was ordered by UnionMaritime Ltd at Hyundai withdelivery end of 2021. Greek ownerMaran Gas added at Daewoo 1extra LNG tanker 170,000 cbmbringing to 12 the total number ofvessels ordered at the yard.

NEWBUILDING REPORTED ORDERS

Type Size Built Yard Buyers Price Comment

Dry 325,000 2021/22 Qingdao Beihai Bof Comm. n.a. 4 units

Dry 64,000 2021 Nantong Xiangyu Nisshin n.a. 2 additional units

LPG 89,000 2021 Hyundai Union Maritime n.a.

SALE & PURCHASE 10

NEWBUILDINGS / FINANCE

INTEREST RATES

INTEREST RATE SWAPS

EXCHANGE RATES

INDICATIVE NEWBUILDING PRICES (CHINA)

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20

Newbuilding Prices (usd mln)

Capesize Ultramax MR2

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

USD/Euro Exchange

100

105

110

115

120

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

Yen/USD Exchange


The activity in the 2nd hand marketwas sensibly affected by theoutbreak of the COVID-19; besidesdifficulties in travelling, crewchanging and flying people toinspect ships, the most attention isdedicated to preserve the dealswhich are in place and successfullycompletes hand over under newstringent conditions.Two sisters Handysize bulk carrierunits of 38,800 dwt built in 2015 atTaizhou Kouan were reportedcommitted sub inspection for aprice of $ 24.3 mln to undisclosedBuyers (ships are Open Hatchunits, partly Tween deckers, BWTSfitted).

A Chinese Supramax AIFANOURIOS50,000 dwt built in 2002 atShanghai Shipyard was reportedsold for $4.9 mln (dry dock dueprompt in April).The Bulk Chile 56,000 dwt built in2009 by Mitsui, controlled byJapanese owner, was inviting offersduring the week. While there wasstill uncertainty of the outcome ofthe offers, few offers wererumoured around high $9 up to$10 mln and possibly werewithdrawn, with sellers aiming over$11 mln (wog). More info will bereported in the next report.In the tanker market a VLCCBUNGA KASTURI 300,000 dwt built

in 2003 at Universal was reportedsold to Indians for a price of $32mln, whilst the Suezmax MOGRA150,000 dwt built in 2000 byNippon Kokan with SS due in June2020 was rumoured sold toVenezuelan for $17 mln.A modern Aframax Nanyang Star105,000 dwt built in 2012 bySumitomo was reported sold toundisclosed for a price of $ 32.5mln.In the product carriers market, theCAPE BEIRA 40,000 dwt built in2005 at SLS (SS due in November2020) after failing on subs toNigerian Buyers was reportedcommitted to Monaco basedBuyers.

SECONDHAND REPORTED SALES


Dry Bulk usd/ldt 358.6 363.3 -1.3% -18.1%

Tanker usd/ldt 362.2 368.2 -1.6% -18.0%


Capesize usd mln 31.5 31.6 -0.3% -13.1%

Kamsarmax usd mln 22.3 22.3 -0.2% +4.2%

Supramax usd mln 16.0 16.1 -0.8% -10.8%

VLCC usd mln 75.3 75.3 +0.0% +12.2%

Suezmax usd mln 52.7 52.6 +0.1% n.a.

Aframax usd mln 40.9 40.8 +0.3% +23.5%

MR Product usd mln 29.9 29.8 +0.3% +8.0%

BALTIC SECONDHAND ASSESSMENTS

SHIP RECYCLING ASSESSMENT

From June 2019, the Panamax BSPA benchmark changed into a Kamsarmax (82,500mtdwt on 14.43m, LOA 229m, beam 32.25m, 97,000cbm grain) and the benchmark BSPAAframax specifications was amended to 115,000mt dwt and 44m beam

SALE & PURCHASE 11

SECONDHAND / DEMOLITION

20

25

30

35

40

45

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

Secondhand Values (usd mln)

Kamsarmax Aframax MR

350

400

450

500

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

Demolition Assessment (usd/ldt)

Dry Bulk Tanker


TYPE VESSEL NAME DWT BLT YARD BUYERS PRICE NOTE

Bulk Aifanourios 50,000 2002 Shanghai n.a. 4.9

Bulk Smart Tina 38,000 2015 Taizhou 12.3

Bulk Smart Lisa 38,000 2015 Taizhou 12

Crude Bunga Kasturi 300,000 2003 Universal Indian buyers 30

Crude Mogra 150,000 2000 NKK Venezuelan buyers 17

Crude Aquanaut 112,000 2003 hyundai UAE buyers 16.7

Crude Nanyang Star 104,000 2012 Sumitomo undisclosed buyers 32.5

Chem Woolim Dragon 9 8,000 2011 Mokpo UAE buyers 8.75

German buyers

Grain price slumps attractbargain-hunting by importersThe collapse in grain prices causedby concern about the global impactof coronavirus has generated somebargain-buying by importingcountries, traders said on Tuesday.But they said the extent was stilllimited and there were no signsimporters were making especiallylarge purchases to expand stocks.“We are seeing bargain buying thisweek by countries which needgrains and can make big savings bymoving into the market,” oneEuropean trader said. “Butinventories are not beingexpanded.”Unseasonal rain and hail damagescrops in India, hits farmers’incomeUnseasonal torrential rains and hailstorms have damaged the winter-planted crops of millions of Indian growers, inundating wheat, potato, chickpea and rapeseed farms in large parts of the fertile northern plains, farmers said. Most farmers were caught by surprise by the repeated rain and hail that has lashed fields full of mature crops, raising concerns about quality degradation, threatening to cut yields, and pushing back harvests. Farmers in one of the world’s leading food-producing and consuming countries sow winter crops from October, a month after the June-September monsoon rains end, with harvesting starting from March. Wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas are the main winter-planted crops. Rains have hit the wheat crop in the northern states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, India's grain belt. Although brim-full granaries will help India deal with any drop in wheat output, crop losses will cut farmers' meagre incomes. "Even the farmers who have been able to salvage their crops, will find it

difficult to get reasonable prices due to quality issues," said Dharmendra Malik, a farm leader from Uttar Pradesh.Coronavirus prompts Malaysia palm plantation closures, world vegoil supply concernsMalaysia's palm oil plantations willstop operations for the next twoweeks to comply with governmentorders to contain the spread of thecoronavirus, a producer group saidon Wednesday, raising concernsover global edible oil supplies.Malaysia is the world's second-largest producer of palm oil, whichis used in everything fromcosmetics to cookies and accountsfor around 65% of global edible oilexports. The country has closed itsborders and restricted internalmovement by shutting schools andbusinesses from Wednesday untilMarch 31, after the number ofinfections in the country climbedto the highest in Southeast Asia.Palm oil analysts estimate thatMalaysia's crude palm productionwill drop by 350,000-700,000tonnes for the month of Marchdue to the harvest pause,potentially cutting Marchinventories to 1.0-1.3 milliontonnes. India, the world's topvegetable oil importer, could takea hit if the supply disruption lastslonger, a top broker said.Russia could limit some foodexports, sees no deficit of grainRussia could limit exports of somefood products if the coronavirusoutbreak leads to a shortage, itsofficials said on Tuesday, addingthat the domestic agriculturemarket remains stable and nodeficit of grain was expected.Grain exports from Russia, theworld's largest wheat exporter,jumped last week as the roubleweakened against the dollar andfell to four-year lows. "We areprepared to impose restrictions on

the export of essential foodstuffs ifa shortage of such goods arises, tofulfil the needs of the domesticmarket," said First DeputyPrime Minister Andrei Belousov."But today, with the exception of avery limited number of positions,we do not see such a need," hetold the same meeting.Activity at Argentina’s Rosariograins port normalized - chamberActivity at Argentina's Rosariograins port normalized after thepublication of coronavirus shiptrade protocol, the maritime portactivities chamber said onWednesday. The protocol comesafter the disruptions at ports in theworld's number one exporter ofsoy oil and meal, which is also thethird largest-seller of corn andunprocessed soybeans.Indonesia to cancel rules requiringdomestic ships for coal, palmexportsIndonesia's government willrevoke rules requiring exporters ofcoal and palm oil to use domesticshipping companies for shipments,Coordinating Minister for Maritimeand Investment Affairs LuhutPandjaitan told reporters onWednesday. Indonesia, the world'sbiggest thermal coal exporter,issued regulations in 2018requiring its coal and palm oilexporters to use domestic shippingcompanies, which were due tocome into force this May. Thegovernment has since concludedthat the rule would be disruptivefor exports and President JokoWidodo has ordered it to berevoked, Pandjaitan said. "In thiscurrent situation, we should notdisrupt (exports), so in a recentmeeting the President decided theTrade Ministry regulation shouldbe revoked," he said.

Source: Refinitiv

COMMENT MARKET REPORT – WEEK 48/2019 12COMMODITIES 12MARKET REPORT – WEEK 12/2020

DRY BULK NEWS

Oil industry may fill global storagein months as record glut buildsThe oil market could see a recordsupply surplus in April ascoronavirus wipes out demand andbig producers pump more, creatinga global glut that threatens tooverwhelm storage capacity withinmonths and force widespreadindustry shutdowns, analysts said.Crude is already gushing intostorage at land and sea worldwideas countries curb travel economicactivity falls due to coronavirus.Storage levels are rising evenbefore a wave of supply hits themarket from Saudi Arabia, Russiaand other producers who aregearing up to fight a price war formarket share. Both US and Brentprices have fallen by more than 50percent in the last 10 trading days,following the most pronounceddemand destruction since thefinancial and economic crisis of2008. As storage reaches capacity,a slide toward $10 per barrel ispossible, according to someinvestors and analysts. That lasthappened during the 1998 glutbefore oil companies, and oil-producing nations curbed supply.Britain’s oil industry calls on thepublic purse as first fields shutBritain’s oil and gas sector calledon the government on Thurs tohelp it survive, as an oil price crashtriggered the first field shutdownsin the North Seam, home of theBrent crude stream that underpinsglobal oil prices. As Saudi Arabiaand other low-cost producersincluding Russia are flooding themarket with oil, higher cost energyproducers worldwide, like those inthe North Sea, are under pressurewith prices falling down belowbreakeven points. Enquest becamethe first British producer to shutNorth Sea fields in the wake of theoil price slump in 17-year lows,saying it will not restart its Heather

and Thistle/Deveron fields. Oil andgas producers worldwide have cutspending and dividends, and somewarned this would lead toshrinking future output asbenchmark oil futures have slidtowards what could be their worstquarterly falls since the 1980s.Britain has said it would launch a330 bln pound ($399 bln) lifeline ofloan guarantees and provide afurther 20 bln pounds in tax cuts,grants and other help forbusinesses facing the risk ofcollapse.Crude oil freight rates after franticweek, but may rise againAfter a frantic week that sentcrude oil freight rates to recordhighs amid a bookings bonanza toship Saudi oil to the world, ratesare not easing as charterers balk atthe nosebleed charges and awaitSaudi volume plans for April,shipping sources said. At least fiveVLCC provisional charters failedthis week along with another fivefor Suezmax tankers, most ofwhich were related to Saudi crudeoil loadings, shipbrokers sourcessaid. Crumbling demand forrefined fuels as the coronaviruspandemic sweeps across the worldhas also pressured refiningmargins, forcing processors to slowoutput and contemplate extensivemaintenance.Majors looking to store jet fuel atsea as air travel drastically curbedMajor oil companies including BP and Shell are preparing to take the rare step of storing jet fuel at sea as the coronavirus outbreak disrupts airline activity globally, while refiners are shifting to diesel because of the poor margins associated with jet fuel production. Jet fuel demand has cratered as airlines suspend flights due to the coronavirus pandemic, which globally has infected more than 204,000 people and killed 8,700,

prompting travel restrictions from governments around the world, including the US. Market participants and refiners have had to scramble to adjust to incredibly low prices. Storing jet fuel at sea, however, is something of a last resort. The product is sensitive to contamination and degrades more quickly than other refined fuels and especially crude oil, so after a few months, it no longer can be used for aviation, according to analysts. US Blacklists Chinese, South African companies over Iran oil tradeThe US identified seven companies that have blacklisted for trade in Iranian petrochemicals – three based in mainland China, three in Hong Kong and one in South Africa – the State Department said in a statement Separately, the department also named five Iranian nuclear scientists who the Commerce Department said it sanctioned for having taken part in Iran’s pre-2004 nuclear weapons program and who continue to be employed by the Iranian side. The announcements appeared designed to signal Washington would not east its campaign of choking off Tehran’s ability to export its oil, despite appeals from China and other that it do so on humanitarian grounds because of the coronavirus outbreak. The State Department identified the firms targeted as Hong Kong-based Mcfly Plastic Hk Ltd, Saturn Oasis Co, Sea Charming Shipping Company Ltd; Chinese companies Dalian Golden Sun Import & Export Co. Ltd. Tianyi International (Dalian) Co. Ltd and Aoxing Ship Management (Shanghai) Ltd and South Africa’s SPI International Proprietary Ltd.

Source: Refinitiv

COMMENT MARKET REPORT – WEEK 48/2019 13COMMODITIES 13MARKET REPORT – WEEK 12/2020

OIL & GAS NEWS

300

400

500

600

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

Wheat and Corn Prices (usd/t)

Corn Wheat

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

Steel Prices in China (rmb/t)

Rebar Plate

40

60

80

100

120

140

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

Iron Ore and Coal Prices (usd/t)

Steam Coal Iron Ore

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

Brent and WTI Oil Prices (usd/bbl)

Brent WTI

0

200

400

600

800

20/3/19 20/7/19 20/11/19 20/3/20

Bunker Prices @ Singapore (usd/t)

IFO 380 0.5% LSFO MGO


Wheat usd/t 541.5 503.5 +7.5% +16.3%

Corn usd/t 341.0 363.3 -6.1% -10.0%

Soybeans usc/bu 868.5 846.3 +2.6% -4.3%

Palm Oil usd/t 526.3 562.3 -6.4% -1.2%


Iron Ore (Platts) usd/t 89.6 90.1 -0.6% +4.3%

Iron Ore @Tangshan rmb/t 669.0 665.0 +0.6% +5.9%

Rebar in China rmb/t 3,560 3,502 +1.7% -11.1%

Plate in China rmb/t 3,827 3,837 -0.3% -8.3%

HR Coil in China rmb/t 3,569 3,581 -0.3% -11.0%

CR Sheet in China rmb/t 4,201 4,223 -0.5% -6.1%


Steam @ Richards Bay usd/t 63.5 66.0 -3.7% -18.4%

Steam @ Newcastle usd/t 66.3 65.8 +0.8% -29.1%

Coking Coal Australia usd/t 159.5 160.0 -0.3% -24.9%


Crude Oil Brent usd/bbl 25.9 31.9 -18.6% -61.3%

Crude Oil WTI usd/bbl 22.7 30.5 -25.5% -61.6%

Crude Oil Dubai usd/bbl 30.8 34.8 -11.4% -53.6%

Nat Gas Henry Hub usd/mmbtu 1.53 1.85 -17.3% -44.0%

Gasoline Nymex usd/gal 0.54 0.79 -31.2% -71.7%

ICE Gasoil usd/t 289.8 315.8 -8.2% -51.5%

Naphtha Tokyo usd/t 292.5 330.4 -11.5% -47.1%

Jet-Kerosene Asia usd/bbl 40.6 45.1 -10.0% -48.9%


Rotterdam usd/t 181.0 197.0 -8.1% -56.0%

Fujairah usd/t 228.0 256.5 -11.1% -47.2%

Singapore usd/t 207.5 215.0 -3.5% -51.8%

Rotterdam usd/t 250.0 286.5 -12.7% n.a.

Fujairah usd/t 300.5 326.0 -7.8% n.a.

Singapore usd/t 297.5 334.0 -10.9% n.a.

Rotterdam usd/t 316.5 344.5 -8.1% -45.4%

Fujairah usd/t 475.0 498.0 -4.6% -35.9%

Singapore usd/t 293.5 324.0 -9.4% -52.4%

IFO

38

00

.5%

LSF

OM

GO

OIL & GAS

COAL

IRON ORE AND STEEL

AGRICULTURAL

BUNKER

COMMODITIES 14

PRICES


MARKET REPORT –WEEK 19/2019

NEWS

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