baltic sea region climate change adaptation strategy
DESCRIPTION
Baltic Sea Region Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. Project type: EU INTERREG IV B project Period: 36 months Kick-off meeting: 10-12 January 2011 Ole Krarup Leth Danish Meteorological Institute. Overview. 1 Climate change: An understanding of the problem … Why BALTADAPT Partners - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
www.baltadapt.eu
Baltic Sea Region Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
Project type: EU INTERREG IV B projectPeriod: 36 monthsKick-off meeting: 10-12 January 2011
Ole Krarup LethDanish Meteorological Institute
www.baltadapt.eu
Overview
1 Climate change:
• An understanding of the problem …• Why BALTADAPT• Partners• Work to be carried out
2 Some components to the knowledge- base – what should we relate to:
• Warming – regional• Precipitation – regional• Sea level – regional
www.baltadapt.eu
Background
Realise the disaster but prevent the catastrophe ...
In our everyday life we calculate the risks and take our precautions – the same is true regarding climate change and climate change adaptation …
www.baltadapt.eu
Background
EU´s strategy for the Baltic Sea...• Elaborated by the European Commission• Launched in 2009• Four focus areas:
1) Environmentally sustainable
2) Increase economical/industrial competitivenes
3) Improve infrastructure
4) Security• Focus area 1), priority area 5 (of 15): „Adaptation to
climate change“ • Priority area 5 is implemented via the action plan:
„To establish a regional adaptation strategy for the Baltic Sea Region“ BALTADAPT
www.baltadapt.eu
Project goals and expected results
Overall objectives:• Come up with sustainable solutions for climate adaptation in the Baltic
Sea Region
objectives:• Develop a climate change adaptation startegy for the Baltic Sea region
Expected results:• Improve knowledge sharing between scientists and politicians• Collect existing knowledge on climate change adaptation, and identify and
fill in gabs in this knowledge• Develop a climate change adaptation strategy for the Baltic Sea region• Develop an action plan (for decision makers) for the Baltic Sea region
www.baltadapt.eu
Baltadapt partnership
The Secretariat of the Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS)/Baltic 21
Danish Meteological Institute (DMI; LP)
Finnish Environment
Institute (SYKE)
University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute (EMI)
University of Latvia (LU)
Baltic Environmental Forum (BEF), Lithuania
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
Federal Environment Agency (UBA)
Federal Ministry for the
Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear
Safety (BMU)
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW)
National Environmental
Research Institute, Aarhus,
University (NERI)
www.baltadapt.eu
Project structureW
ork
pack
age
1:
Pro
ject
man
agem
ent
Wor
k pa
ckag
e 2:
Co
mm
un
icat
ion
an
d
info
rmat
ion
Work package 4:
Develop knowledge base and vulnerability assessment for the BSR
Work package 3:
Develop a BSR climate change
adaptation strategy
Work package 5:
Develop a BSR climate change
action plan
www.baltadapt.eu
ww
Project structure
Work Group 1:
BSR physical system
Work Group 2:
BSR ecosystem
Work package 4:
Develop knowledge base and vulnerability assessment for the BSR
Work Group 3:
BSR coastal zone
T1: Describe the state of knowledge (review and compilation of literature and recent research results)T2: Identify climate change impacts on coastal zone env. cond. (e.g., questionnaires send to experts)T3: Identify climate change impacts on coastal uses and function (e.g., questionnaires send to experts)
The assessment in WP 4 is a review of existing knowledge on climate change and related issues, not an evaluation of climate change itself.
www.baltadapt.eu
Background
The Baltic Sea and its coastlines face challengesdue to climate change...• Changes in precipitation amounts
and patterns• Increase in terrestrial and sea
temperatures• Rise in sea level• Decrease in ice cover• Intensified eutrophication and
algal blooms, increased runoff and pollution
...it is time to adapt now!
www.baltadapt.eu
IPCC, 2007
A2 (red curve): The skeptical/pessimistic emission scenario [6Gt C/yr (now) 29 Gt C/yr]
B1/B2 (blue/black curves): The optimistic emission scenario [6Gt C/yr (now) 5/13 Gt C/yr]
A1B (green curve) : The in-between scenario
Observed, global surface temperature and modeled surface temperature till 2100. All relative to 1980-1999.
Conclusion: 1.8ºC- 4ºC increase in global surface temperature by year 2100.
Climate change - what does data tells us
www.baltadapt.eu
Climate change - what does data tells usEnsemble of 9 different, coupled, regional climate models for the IPCC A1B scenario
Summer temperatures (avg. 2071-2100) – (avg. 1961-1990). (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios)
Winter temperatures (avg. 2071-2100) – (avg. 1961-1990). (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios)
Conclusion: 3-5ºC increase in the Baltic Sea region
Conclusion: 2-4ºC increase in the Baltic Sea region
Results from the EU-project Ensemble (2004-2009), Dr. Ole Bøssing Christensen, DKC, DMI
www.baltadapt.eu
Climate change - what does data tells usEnsemble of 9 different, coupled, regional climate models for the IPCC A1B scenariet
Winter precipitation [change in % from (avg. 1961-1990) to (avg. 2071-2100)]. (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios)
Summer precipitation [change in % from (avg. 1961-1990) to (avg. 2071-2100)]. (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios)
Conclusion: ~20-40% higher precipitation in the Baltic Sea region
Conclusion: ~5% less to 24% higher precipitation in the Baltic Sea region
Results from the EU-project Ensemble (2004-2009), Dr. Ole Bøssing Christensen, DKC, DMI
www.baltadapt.eu
Climate change – storm surgesAreas affected by storm surges
Schmidt-Thomé, P., et al. (2006). The spatial effects and management of natural and technological hazardsin Europe -ESPON 1.3.1 (ESPON report No. 1.3.1). Geological Survey of Finland (GTK).
Coast lines in the North Sea and Baltic Sea affected by storm surges
Future changes in sea level and in storm surge heights owing to:
1) Changes in global sea level.
2) Regional and local changes owing toland rise.
3) Changes in direction and strength of local winds.
www.baltadapt.eu
Climate change – storm surges
Modeled (IPCC A2) 10 yr. extreme for year 2100 minus today. Largest increase (up to 20 - 40 cm) is expected in the Wadden sea, Gulf of Finland and the Bothnian Bay.
Expected sea level rise in Danish waters by yr. 2100
Individual contributions
Global sea level rise 30 -100 cm
Land rise – (10 - 20) cm
Contrib. from local winds 0 - 40 cm
Sum 10 - 120 cm
Increase in water level: Effect of changes in local winds (2100 – Now)
Expected increase in sea level by yr. 2100
K. S. Madsen, Recent and future climatic changes in temperature, salinity, and sea level of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. PhD thesis, 2009, pp. 1-149. Danish energy agency, see http://www.klimatilpasning.dk