balancing science and policy while developing delta scenarios for the netherlands
TRANSCRIPT
World Delta Summit, Jakarta, 23 november 2011
Balancing science and policy while developing Delta Scenarios for the Netherlands
Aline te Linde, Rutger van der Brugge, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Willem Bruggeman
Delta Programme
3 general programmes• Safety against flooding• Fresh water• Building and
transformation
6 regional programmes
Delta Commissioner and small staff
5 Delta decisions in 2015
Delta Law
2050 and 210018 november 2011
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Delta Scenarios
What?
Climate change and spatial developments
Data for model input (quantitative)
Story lines and maps (qualititative)
Why?
Problem and sensitivity analysis
Development of strategies
Robustness analysis
Inspiration for innovation
No prediction, no ideal planned future, but: plausible futures
Available since May 2011
Actors and knowledge flow
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KNMI
Deltares
PBL
Feedback scientific expert team
Workshops with stakeholders
Staff Delta Commissioner
All SPs
Ministry
4 climate change scenarios(KNMI, 2006)
Available scenarios
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4 socio-economic scenarios(WLO, 2006)
Available scenarios
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Add fig
national
public
national
international
public private
4 Delta Scenarios
Socio-economic growth
Socio-economic shrink
Moderateclimate change
Fastclimate change
Crowd
Rest
Steam
Warm
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Corners of the field
2050 2100
0 2 4 610
14
18
22
26
30
climate change
temperature rise (°C)
socio-economicdevelopment
inhabitantsNL
(x million)2000
1
sea level rise (cm)
0 10 50 100
4 scenario's, two periods
spatial pressure
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Use of scenarios in the Delta Programme
Scenario 1
Safety
‘20 ‘40 ‘602000 2100‘70 ‘90‘10
Intake Goudabrackish
Salt intrusion
W-NL
Maeslantbarrier
Dordrecht
Peak discharge large rivers
Sea level
Low flows
‘50
/ fresh water
Economy
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Change in discharge regime
Lobith, Rijn - 2100
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Maand
Lobith, Rijn - 2050
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Maand
Ver
ande
ring
(%)
Relative change of the mean monthly discharge of the Rhine river
Month Month
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Extreme discharges Rhine river 2050
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 100
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5x 10
4
← 20 ← 100 ← 1250
gumbel variate (-)
Afv
oer (m
3 /s)
overschrijdingsfrequentlielijn Rhine.Lobith.2050 (gumbel schaal)
Reference
G
G+W
W+
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Land subsidence in 2050
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
(m)
0 - 0.00001
0.00001 - 0.005
0.005 - 0.01
0.01 - 0.1
0.1 - 0.3
0.3 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1.000000001 - 5
Without climate changeup to 1 m / 100 yrsin peat areas
under fast climate change: twice
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Salt intrustion
Change in chloride concentration ground water fast climate change scenario
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Spatial development last century
1900 1960 2010
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2050: RC vs GE
live work agricult. nature. live work agricult. nature.
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Difference between scenarios
Difference:
GE more urbanisation
RC more concentration
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2100: REST and WARM vs STEAM and CROWD
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Impression CROWD and STEAM beyond 2050
Growth scenario
high density urbanized areas
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Impression REST and WARM
Shrink scenario
more space for nature
Dilemmas on the science-policy interface
Bandwith / uncertainty
Long-term: storylines, qualitative
Mean values
Small spatial resolution
Most likely scenario
Long-term: quantification
Extreme values
High spatial resolution
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Science Policy
Include (adaptation) measures?
Include wild cards?
Conclusions
• When developing scenarios for water / delta management: do not focus on climate change only, but also consider socio-economic change (land use, soil subsidence)
• Involve all parties early:– Learn eachothers language– Discuss dilemmas– Level expectations
• Continue communication, but with strict facilictation of the meetings / workshops for efficiency
Knowledge brokering
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Moderate climate change in the scenarios REST and FULL
year reference (‘2010’)
2050 2100
ave. discharge Rhine in february (m3/s) 2.900 3.100 3.200
ave. discharge Rhine in september 1.800 2.000 2.100
ave. discharge Meuse in februari 490 500 520
ave. discharge Meuse in september 89 93 97
sea level (cm) (2000 = 0) 0 15 35
extreme discharge Rhine 1/100 jaar (m3/s)
12.000 13.000 14.000
extreme discharge Meuse 1/100 jaar 2.900 3.000 3.200
ave. precipitation winter + 4% + 7%
ave. precipitation summer + 6% + 12%
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25
Fast climate change in the scenarios STEAM and WARM
year referentie (‘2010’)
2050 2100
ave. discharge Rhine in february (m3/s) 2.900 3.400 4000
ave. discharge Rhine in september 1.800 1.300 900
ave. discharge Meuse in februari 480 530 590
ave. discharge Meuse in september 89 48 30
sea level (cm) (2000 = 0) 0 35 85
extreme discharge Rhine 1/100 jaar (m3/s) 12.000 14.000 17.000
extreme discharge Meuse 1/100 jaar 2.900 3.200 3.500
ave. precipitation winter + 14 % + 28 %
ave. precipitation summer - 10% - 19 %