balance sheet optimization… the fhlb way...balance sheet management:primary focus. other income....

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BALANCE SHEET OPTIMIZATION…THE FHLB WAY

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Improved ALCO Process (NII)

Higher Profitability(NIM)

Maximizing Shareholder Value

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BENEFITS OF A STRONG ALCO PROCESS

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WASHINGTON—The Federa l Rese rve m oved to cu t in te rest ra te s by a quarte r-pe rcen tage poin t—the first reduction since 2008—in a p re -em ptive strike to cush ion the econom y from a globa l slowdown and con tinu ing trade tensions.

Stock m arke ts sold off and the dolla r strengthened Wednesday a fte rnoon a fte r Fed Cha irm an Je rom e Powell d isappoin ted investors in h is post-decision news confe rence when he d idn’t m ore exp licitly ra tify expecta tions of add itiona l stim ulus in the m onths ahead .

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IMPLIED FED FUNDS TARGET RATE

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Long Term

Impl

ied

Fed

Fund

s Ta

rget

Rat

e

Pro jection Year EndDEC 2018 FOMC MEDIAN DEC 2019 FOMC MEDIAN DEC 2018 FOMC DOTS DEC 2019 FOMC DOTS Fed Funds Futures

-150bps -125bps

-100bps-50bps

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Fed Funds Futures

Source: Bloomberg

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December 2018

December 2019

TREASURY RATESAsse t Along the Yie ld Curve

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EQUITY RESEARCH HEADLINES

M&A Stra tegy Is Working to Main ta in ROA Desp ite Rate Challenges– The First Bancshares, Inc.

A Good Quarte r, bu t Furthe r NIM Pressure Rem ains a Headwind– Capstar Financial Holdings, Inc.

Strong Fees Offse t NIM Contraction for a Bea t as Dividend Increased : 1st Look– Bank of Hawaii Corp.

NIM Slip Drives 3Q19 EPS Miss, First Look– Southside Bancshares, Inc.

NII Pressure Outweighs New Expense Cuts; Trim m ing Estim ates– Associated Banc -Corp

NII Pressure Tough to Outrun ; Lowering Estim ates– PacWest Bancorp

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BASIC INCOME STATEMENTInterest Income (Earning Asset Yields)

Interest Expense (Cost of Funds)

Net Interest Income (NII) Balance Sheet Management:Primary Focus

Other Income

Operating Expense

Taxes

Net Income ROE vs. ROA Focus

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Net Income Before Taxes

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NET INTEREST INCOME DEPENDENCY CALCULATION

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Non-Interest Income

Net Interest Income (NII)

Net Interest Income (NII) +

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Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Data for all banks Nationally

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The more net interest income dependent your institution, the more

NIM will drive earnings

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EQUITY RESEARCH HEADLINES

3Q19 Growth Overpowers Margin Pressure ; Fine -Tuning Estim ates Higher– First Republic Bank

EPS Miss on Cred it Costs, Lower Margin and Weaker Growth– East West Bancorp

Strong Loan and Deposit Growth Offse ts Core NIM Compression– F.N.B Corporation

EPS Bea t Driven by Mortgage Revenue bu t Core Margin Drops– Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.

Good Growth and Mortgage He lp Neutra lize Margin Pressures– Umpqua Bank

Mortgage & Lower Provision Offse t NIM Compression /Weaker Growth– Eagle Bancorp, Inc.

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Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Data for all banks Nationally

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WHAT IS YOUR CUSTOMERS INSTITUTION’S

NET INTEREST INCOME DEPENDENCY?

NIM NUMBER?

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Strategize Prosperity700 N. Hurstbourne Parkway

Louisville, KY 40222Performance Rankings www.tayloradvisor.com

MetricUnder Performer

Savings BankUBPR Peer

Group AveragePercentile

RankYield on Investments (FTE) 2.06 2.60 8%Yield on Total Loans 4.08 4.71 11%Earning Asset Yield 3.24 4.18 6%Interest Expense to Avg. Earning Assets 0.99 1.03 48%Net Interest Margin (FTE) 2.25 3.17 9%Net Interest Income Dependency Ratio 0.92 0.84 77%


Savings BankState Bank

AveragePercentile


Earning Asset Mix and Balance Sheet Positions

Asset Size ($000) 871,367 Pledged Securities (% of Portfolio) 0%Net Loans ($000) 514,879 59% Liquidity Ratio 50%Security Portfolio ($000) 256,800 29% FHLB Advances and Brokered CDs ($000) 10,343Cash and FFS ($000) 63,564 7% Cost of Funds (% of Average Liabilities) 1.29%

Municipals (% of Portfolio) 0 0% Tier 1 Capital 232,737MBS (% of Portfolio) 100,878 39% Tier-1 Leverage Ratio (%) 26.21CMO (% of Portfolio) 0 0% Total Risk Based Capital 233,772Agencies (% of Portfolio) 156,073 61% Total Risk-Based Capital Ratio (%) 69.97Other Securities (% of Portfolio) 0 0% Municipals (% of Total RBC) 0%

Net Interest Margin Dissection

Under Performer Savings Bank versus State Banks


Earning Asset Mix

Performance and Balance Sheet Snapshot - 2019Q4Under Performer Savings Bank (UPSB)

Under Performer Savings Bank versus UBPR Peer Group

Liquidity and Funding

Investment Portfolio Capital











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WHAT ARE COMMON APPROACHESTO THE ALCO PROCESS?

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APPROACHES TO ALCO

Economist Approach

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ECONOMISTS AND FED CHAIRS

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Fed Chairm an2018-Curren t

Jerome Powell

Fed Chairm an2014-2018

Janet Yellen


Ben Bernanke


Alan Greenspan


Paul Volcker

Father of Econom ics

Adam Smith

1976 Nobe l Prize Lectu re on In fla tion and Unem ploym ent

Milton Friedman

Popularized Laffe r Curve

Arthur Laffer

Keynesian econom ics

John M. Keynes

Rules of Production and Exchange

Karl Marx

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APPROACHES TO ALCOEconomist Approach

Pricing Approach

Interest Rate Risk Approach

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2323

…Page 2 of 1466

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HOW MUCH PAPER IS 1466 PAGES?

1 Ream = 500 Shee ts 1500 Shee ts = 3 Ream s

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APPROACHES TO ALCO

Economist Approach

Pricing Approach

Interest Rate Risk Approach

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Broker Approach

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WHAT SHOULD AN ALCO PROCESS AND PACKET LOOK LIKE?

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Position Assessment

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Capita l Liqu id ity

In te rest Ra te Sensitivity

Investm ents

ALCO BEST PRACTICES

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Asset Liability Management

Balance Sheet Management

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DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INTEREST RATE RISK, ASSET LIABILITY MANAGEMENT AND BALANCE SHEET MANAGEMENT?

Interest Rate Risk Management

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Loans

Deposits

Investments

Capital

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Liquidity

Funding

Strategies

OBJECTIVES AND STRATEGIES

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Public Information: FDIC, SNL, NYSE

Internal Information: ALCO Packet?

Questioning Technique

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KEYS FOR CONSULTIVE SELLING

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HOW ARE BANKS DIFFERENT?

Balance Sheet MixCashInvestm entsLoans

Loan Mix1-4 Fam ilyCom m ercia lConsum erFixedFloa tLoan Marke tp lace

Liquidity PositionFHLB Borrowing CapacityCore Deposit Stab ilityPledging Requirem ents

Tax PositionNet Opera ting LossAMT

Interest Rate Risk PositionAsse t/Liab ility Sensitivity

Bank 1

10%30%60%

80%10%10%90%10%Fla t

HighStab leHigh

YesNo

Liab ility

Bank 2

5%50%45%

20%40%40%20%80%Fla t

Modera teStab leNone

NoNo

Asse t

Bank 3

0%20%80%

35%45%20%50%50%

Strong Growth

NoneVola tileNone

NoYes

Neutra l

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Earning Asset Size

Net Interest Income Change in thousands of dollars (due to Yield change in basis points)

(in $000) 5 10 15 20 25 3050,000 25 50 75 100 125 150100,000 50 100 150 200 250 300250,000 125 250 375 500 625 750500,000 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500750,000 375 750 1,125 1,500 1,875 2,250

1,000,000 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

ONE YEAR NIM DOLLAR IMPACT

Sheet1

Earning Asset SizeNet Interest Income Change in thousands of dollars (due to Yield change in basis points)

(in $000)51015202530

50,000255075100125150

100,00050100150200250300

250,000125250375500625750

500,0002505007501,0001,2501,500

750,0003757501,1251,5001,8752,250

1,000,0005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000

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Investm ents

ALCO BEST PRACTICES

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Investm ents

• Formation• Adequacy• Planning• Stress Testing• Contingency Plan

BALANCE SHEET MANAGEMENT - CAPITAL

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LENDER RISK ACCOUNTSRisk Managem ent / Unin tended Consequences to Regula tory Capita l

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MORTGAGE PROGRAM PARTICIPATION (MPF & MPP)

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1. Allows your institution to manage risk and capital while enhancing non -interest income

2. FHLB holds liqu id ity, in te rest ra te , and prepaym ent risk for a ll loans purchased from m em ber institu tions

3. Provides Multip le Sources of non-in te rest incom e

• Gain on sa le on a flow basis• Option to re ta in se rvicing for recurring incom e• Lender Risk Account (LRA) provides opportun ity for add itiona l

incom e based on pe rform ance of sold loans over tim e

4. Term s genera lly m ore advantageous than Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac

5. Sa tisfy custom er dem ands for p roducts tha t m ay not fit your in te rest ra te risk p rofile

MORTGAGE PURCHASE PROGRAM (MPP & MPF) BENEFITS:

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0.689

0.693

0.546

HIGH PERFORMING MPP INSTITUTIONS

Source: FFIEC UBPR

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POTENTIAL ISSUES WITH THE LENDER RISK ACCOUNT

Som e exam iners have requ ired banks to risk-weigh t

the LRA a t 1,250%

LESS m eaningfu l for banks with sm all com m ercia l & consum er loan portfolios.

Typica lly have h igher risk-based cap ita l ra tios

MORE m eaningfu l for banks with la rge com m ercia l & consum er loan portfolios.

Typica lly have lower risk-based cap ita l ra tios

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Investm ents

• On Balance Sheet• Off Balance Sheet• Stressed Liquidity• Contingency Funding• Profit Center

BALANCE SHEET MANAGEMENT - LIQUIDITY

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Margina l Cost of Funds / FHLB Supplem enting Re ta il Deposits

FUNDING THE BALANCE SHEET

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LIABILITY MIX TREND ANALYSISDecember 31, 2018


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New MMDA Tier

Balance Rate

Tier 1 $0-$1,000 No Rate

Tie r 2 $1,001 -$249,999

2.25%

Tier 3 $250,000 + 0.75%

Crea ted New Money Marke t Product to Grow Deposits


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LIABILITY MIX TREND ANALYSISJune 30, 2019


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.61 .60

.74

.68

.98

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2

Cost of Funds with Conversion

SAMPLE BANK COF BY QUARTER


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MARGINAL COST OF FUNDS RESULTS

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.61 .60

.74

.68

.98

.83

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2

Cost of Funds with Conversion Cost of Funds w FHLB


Wholesale Funding BalancesFHLB Borrowings 3,000 Brokered Deposits - Internet Deposits - Reciprocal Deposits - Repurchase Agreements -


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FHLB Advances (overnight, term, or putable ) can:

• Elim ina te conversion risk – FHLB Advances a re 100% new m oney

• Accom m odates seasona l funding fluctua tions with flexib le te rm s

• Provides just in -tim e stab le liqu id ity while deposit stra tegies a re eva lua ted

KEY TAKEAWAYS

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FHLB Le tte r of Cred it / Unpledge the Investm ent Portfolio

IMPROVING THE LIQUIDITY RATIO

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2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2Loans to Deposits 93.2 93.7 91.6 91.6

Liquidity Ratio 15.9 16.0 18.2 18.8

Liquid Assets to Total Assets 13.8 13.8 15.8 16.3

Pledged Securities to Securities 56.7 51.6 55.3 51.1

KEY LIQUIDITY RATIOS


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3

Liquidity Ratio Liquid Assets to Total Assets

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STATE STATUTE GOVERNING ELIGIBLE COLLATERAL

✓

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3


2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3Loans to Deposits 93.2 93.7 91.6 91.6 92.8

Liquidity Ratio 15.9 16.0 18.2 18.8 24.1

Liquid Assets to Total Assets 13.8 13.8 15.8 16.3 21.6

Pledged Securities to Securities 56.7 51.6 55.3 51.1 15.4

KEY LIQUIDITY RATIOS


2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2Loans to Deposits 93.2 93.7 91.6 91.6

Liquidity Ratio 15.9 16.0 18.2 18.8

Liquid Assets to Total Assets 13.8 13.8 15.8 16.3

Pledged Securities to Securities 56.7 51.6 55.3 51.1

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3


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• Free Up the Bank’s Investm en t Portfo lio

• Im prove On-Balance Shee t Liqu id ity

• Sell low yie ld ing investm ents and m ake m ore rea l e sta te loans• Earning Asset Yield improvement can exceed 200bps in most cases!

FHLB LETTER OF CREDIT BENEFITS

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Investm ents

• Static/Dynamic Modeling• Non-Parallel Shock/Ramp• Impact on Asset Quality• Assumption Development• Assumption Stress Testing• What-If Simulations

BALANCE SHEET MANAGEMENT – INTEREST RATE RISK

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FHLB Putab le Advance / Risk/Reward Trade-Off

GETTING PAID FOR INTEREST RATE RISK

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.91.96

.99

1.06

1.20

1.41

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2



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CD AND FHLB MATURITY/REPRICING

Short -term FHLB Advances:

$14MM @ 1.7%

Brokered Deposit Maturities:

$2.1MM 11/12/19 @ 2.3%


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Recommended client request

pricing on 10 year NP 1 year

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-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1 Yr or less 1-3yr 3 yrs +

FHLB Maturity/Repricing

9/30/2019 6/30/2019

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

3 Mos or less 3 Mos - 12Mos

1 Yr - 3 Yrs 3 Yrs+

CD Maturity/Repricing

9/30/2019 6/30/2019

CD AND FHLB MATURITY/REPRICING


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.91.96

.991.06

1.20

1.41

1.59 1.57

0.50

0.70

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4



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Investm ents

• Liquidity Risk• Price Risk• Credit Risk• Impairment• Risk Adjusted Returns• ALM Considerations

BALANCE SHEET MANAGEMENT - INVESTMENTS

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Municipa l Bonds with Rea l Esta te Nexus / Best Re turn pe r Risk-to-Colla te ra l Value

AN UPTAPPED SOURCE OF LIQUIDITY

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Capital

Risk Weighting

est. FHLB Lendable

ValueLiquidation Time Frame

Tax Equivalent

YieldDuration

15yr MBS 20% 95% 3 days 2.10% 5.030yr MBS 20% 95% 3 days 2.45% 7.5

Agency 10yr NC 1yr 20% 95% 3 days 2.35% 8.5AAA Bank Qualified Muni GO 20% 90% 3 days 2.65% 8.5

AAA General Market Muni GO 20% 90% 3 days 3.15% 8.5

Interest Rate RiskLiquidity

ASSET STRATIFICATION

Sheet1

CapitalLiquidityAsset QualityInterest Rate RiskNET Yield

ASSET #Risk Weightingest. FHLB Lendable ValueLiquidation Time FrameProbability of DefaultLoss Given DefaultProvision ExpenseTax Equivalent YieldReset / CallDuration

15yr MBS120%95%3 days0.0%0.0%0.0%2.10%15yr5.02.10%

30yr MBS420%95%3 days0.0%0.0%0.0%2.45%30yr7.52.45%

Agency 10yr NC 1yr220%95%3 days0.0%0.0%0.0%2.35%1yr8.52.35%

AAA Bank Qualified Muni GO320%90%3 days0.0%0.0%0.0%2.65%10yr8.52.65%

AAA General Market Muni GO620%90%3 days0.0%0.0%0.0%3.15%10yr8.53.15%

Commercial Real Estate Loan5100%60%months -> maturity8.4%20.0%1.7%4.25%7yr6.04.01%

0.1428571429

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MUNICIPAL CREDIT RISK IS MUCH LOWER VS. CORPORATES

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• Three Years- Computer Software

• Five Years- Computer Hardware, Cars, Trucks, Buses, Aircraft

• Seven Years- Furniture, Fittings, Fixtures, Office Equipment, Agricultural Machinery

• Fifteen Years- Qualified Improvements – Building, Land, Property

• Thirty Nine Years- Nonresidential Real Property

Source : EY

GENERIC DEPRECIATION GUIDANCE

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CPU Software

CPU Hardware, Cars, Trucks, Buses, Aircraft

Furniture, Fittings, Fixtures, Office Equipment, Ag Machinery

Nonresidential Real Property

Source : Trad ing Desk (MMD Index)

Non-Rea l Esta te Series Rea l Esta te Series

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Spre

ad to

UST

Amou

nt

Ma turity Date

East Allen County School Build ing CorpSeptem ber 2017 Issuance Sca le

Amt(M) Sprd

RECENT MUNICIPAL ISSUANCE SCALE AND SPREADS

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PROPOSED MUNICIPAL OFFICIAL STATEMENT – SUGGESTED LANGUAGE• Option 1

“At a minimum, x% of the deal proceeds will be used for real-state related purposes.”

- Gives FHLB a basis for de te rm in ing lendable va lue . Issue r re ta ins flexib ility.

• Option 2

“Proceeds from 2017-2024 maturities to be used for non real -estate related purposes such as purchase of new buses, school fixtures, computers, capitalized interest, cost of bond issuance, etc. “

and“Proceeds from 2025-2038 maturities to be used for the renovation and improvements to OldElementary School, Old Jr./Sr. High School and construction of New East End High School.”

- Gives FHLB a basis for de te rm in ing lendable va lue . He lps p ricing of longer-da ted te rm s.

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OFFERING STATEMENT – FHLB VERBIAGE FOR PLEDGING

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Risk m anagem ent p ractices with stra tegy form ation to im prove /protect m argin- not one-size fits a ll

Im prove understand ing of your m em ber ’s ba lance shee t to m ake be tte r decisions

Im plem ent thorough ba lance shee t m anagem ent with FHLB Products

KEY HOW-TO… TAKEAWAYS FROM TODAY’S PRESENTATION

The im portance of your custom er’s educa tion th rough FHLB Case Stud ies by a th ird party

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CEO & CFO Workshop

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8:00 a.m. Registration and Breakfast

8:45 a.m. Welcome and Introductions

9:00 a.m. Balance Sheet Optimization : Profit Improvement Workshop for CEOs and CFOs Why Balance Sheet and NIM Management is Important for Community Banking?•Review different Asset Liability Management Packets and Facilitation Techniques (Best and Worst Practices)•Process Improvement: Position Assessment and Strategy Formation

9:45 a.m. Break

10:00 a.m. •Capital Management: Credit Cycle and Interest Rates (Case Study)•Liquidity Assessment: Liability Management and Deposit Pricing (Strategy/Case study to improve margin and manage liquidity)•Interest Rates: Best Practices (Strategy/Case Study to improve/protect earnings in different rate environments)

10:45 a.m. Break

11:00 a.m. •Investment: Relative Value Analysis and Sector/Yield Improvement Ideas (Case Study)•Review Various Balance Sheet Strategies: It’s not always about rate (Loan pricing and Case study)•Conclusion/Questions

11:45 a.m. Lunch

CEO & CFO WORKSHOP AGENDA

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QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS?

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Todd Taylor, CPA, CFAE-m ail: [email protected] : www.TaylorAdvisor.comPhone : 502 412-2524

Omar Hinojosa, CFAE-m ail: om [email protected] : www.TaylorAdvisor.comPhone : 502 814-5656

Slide Number 1Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4BENEFITS OF A STRONG ALCO PROCESSSlide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8TREASURY RATESSlide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12NII DEPENDENCY AMONG ALL BANKS NATIONALLY Slide Number 15NET INTEREST MARGIN AMONG ALL BANKS NATIONALLYSlide Number 17 Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30 Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Slide Number 35Slide Number 36Slide Number 37Slide Number 38Slide Number 39Slide Number 40Slide Number 41Slide Number 42Slide Number 43Slide Number 44Slide Number 45Slide Number 46Slide Number 47Slide Number 48Slide Number 49Slide Number 50Slide Number 51Slide Number 52Slide Number 53Slide Number 54Slide Number 55Slide Number 56Slide Number 57Slide Number 58Slide Number 59Slide Number 60Slide Number 61Slide Number 62Slide Number 63Slide Number 64Slide Number 65Slide Number 66Slide Number 67Slide Number 68Slide Number 69Slide Number 70Slide Number 71Slide Number 72Slide Number 73Slide Number 74Slide Number 75Slide Number 76Slide Number 77Slide Number 78

balance sheet optimization… the fhlb way...balance sheet management:primary focus. other income....

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