Balance of Power in AsiaMuhammad Zeshan

International & Area Studies Department

Pukyong National University, Busan

Background

In 1960, the Soviet Ambassador (Mihail Kapitsa) said:

“We support India and Afghanistan against you (Pakistan) because they are our friends, even when they are wrong. But your friends (United States) do not support you, even when they know you are right”.

Later, Kennedy’s India policy:

Resulted in a mismatch of military power in the Indian sub-continent.

Pakistan turned towards China and Bhutto (the Prime Minister that time) declared:

“We will not barter or bargain Chinese friendship away for anything”.

Background

During 1963 and 1964, China was the largest importer of cotton from

Pakistan.

In May 1963, Chou Enlai (first Premier of China) said:

“China would defend Pakistan throughout the world” for “Pakistan defended

China in SEATO and CENTO”.

The U.S. was unhappy with Pakistan as it signed an air traffic agreement with

China.

It gave Pakistan traffic rights at Canton and Shanghai airports in exchange for

the rights to China at Karachi and Dacca airports.

That was the first air traffic agreement signed by China with any non-Socialist

country.

Background

This air traffic agreement helped China a lot as it was engaged in a border

clash against India.

These flight agreements provided Pakistan easier access to the Africa and

Middle East.

As a result, United States promptly held up a loan of around $ 4.3 million for

Pakistan’s airports improvement.

Objective of the Study

United States is inclined more towards India than Pakistan.

This policy is creating a power imbalance in the region given that both

Pakistan and India are traditional rivals with the nuclear weapons.

Hence, the present study would mainly examine the relations between

Pakistan, India, China and United States in the context of balancing of power.

Balance of Power in Asia:

By Hans Morgenthau

In Politics Among Nations, Morgenthau stated that economic progress in Asia,

and particularly in China may carry the greatest implications for the rest of

the world in future.

The awakening of Asia will result in full possession of the instruments

produced with modern technology, particularly in the nuclear field which

recently was a virtual monopoly of the Western countries.

Such developments would cause a swift distribution of power.

Balance of Power in Asia:

By Hans Morgenthau

He stated that any nation either Europe or Asia that would be able to add its power to the huge power-potential of China might make itself the future master of Asia and the world.

During 1941, President Franklin Roosevelt focused the U.S. policy at opposing the expansionist designs of Japan.

It resulted in attack on the Pearl Harbor, hence the U.S. entered into the World War II.

After the War, the U.S. promoted a strong China as a fortification against Japan.

However this policy could not go a long way as the communists seized power in China.

It made the U.S. focus on containing the communist China.

Balance of Power in Asia:

By Hans Morgenthau

Morgenthau stated the U.S. policy to China as a peripheral military

containment.

He stated that the erection of military solid points at the border of

the Chinese Empire will be useless in future.

He expressed his doubt that such a policy might be effective once

China is tough enough to spill over its current frontiers.

He claimed the China that the U.S. will confront in future will be not

only a strong power but also the strongest nation on earth.

The U.S. peripheral military methods would disappear in no time.

Balance of Power in Asia:

By Hans Morgenthau

He stated that the Chinese are predominant on the land while the U.S. is

strong at the sea and also in the air.

This policy underlies the geopolitical notion in favor of the United States that

no single state gained a hegemonial position in Asia.

Forty-seven years from now, Hans Morgenthau envisioned the rise of China,

rebalance of the U.S., and the Asia in Truth and Power.

China Considers Pakistan a real Ally

The newly expanded deep water Gwadar port in Pakistan is part of

China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and it is near completion.

It is believed that this port would start a new chapter of economic

development and prosperity in this region as it would be a regional

trade hub.

The construction of infrastructure projects in Balochistan (CPEC) goes

through Gilgit and Baltistan, and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

The China-Pakistan cooperation helps both as India has to face a two-

front threat in case of war with either country.

Right now South Asia is evolving with important new aspects in the

balance of power. It is a struggle between the U.S. and China along

with India and Pakistan.

China and Pakistan Reshaping Balance

of Power in Asia

As India aims to become a dominant player in global power hierarchy, it strengthens ties with United States.

On the other hand, China seeks to turn towards Pakistan as its best interest as it would fend off Indo-U.S. cooperation in the South and East Asia.

In 2010, while visiting Pakistan, the Chinese Premier (Wen Jiabao)said:

“Pakistan made huge losses and an important role to international fight against terrorism. Therefore its sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity must be respected.”

China has proven itself a reliable provider of military hardware to Pakistani army.

On economic front, the amount of bilateral trade between China and Pakistan is amounted to $12 billion during 2012.

Indo-US Alliance

India has been buying over $100 billion of armaments each year, for

the last eight years.

Around two-third of these arms are deployed against Pakistan.

Recently, India and the Unites States have strong military relationship.

It includes co-production of unconventional defence articles,

cooperation on maritime safety etc.

In 2015, both countries have signed a new framework for Indo-US

defence relationship.

This Indo-US alliance would bring some clear negative consequences

not only for Pakistan’s security but also for China’s security.

Further, such intensive support from the U.S. would only increase

arms race in South Asia.

Indo-US Alliance

The Joint Strategic Vision (of US and India released in 2015) says that

India and the U.S. share the idea of peace, stability and success in the

Asia-Pacific Region.

India also has permitted the U.S. stand on the South-China Sea islands

that are disputed with China.

Currently, India is the only state in the region that is working in

cohesion with the U.S. ambitions for the repression of China.

The U. S. Defence Agreements with

Pakistan

Pakistan is negotiating with the U.S. officials for buying F-16s.

Previously, Pakistan had to pay only $ 270 million while rest of the

money was to be paid by United States through a Foreign Military

Financing (FMF) subsidy.

However, without the FMF allocation, price for eight F-16 fighter

aircrafts would increase by two and- a-half times compared to original

price.

The F-16 contract was a part of Pak-U.S. defence agreement.

Washington had committed to provide Islamabad its provision of

hardware assistance in its fight against terrorism.

However, currently the U.S. is backing out of its policy for Pakistan.

Conclusion

The United States wants its influence in Asia through India.

The U.S. is preparing India to stand in front of China at the time of

need.

The China is aware of this policy, therefore it is expanding its defence

and economic ties with Pakistan.

A stronger Pakistan is in the benefit of China as it would protect its

interest in the region.

It resulted in China Pakistan Economic Corridor project that worth

USD 46 billion.

It is believed that this project would prove itself an economic game

changer in the region.

Thank you!