baja california sur aquifer, renewable energy, and desalination … · 2014-05-23 · baja...

Baja California Sur Aquifer, Renewable Energy, and Desalination Project: Preliminary Assessment of

Water Resources for Los Cabos and La Paz Municipalities

By Magdalena A K Muir, Kyle Leinweber, Alfonso Rivera & Andres Arandav

A Fulbright Research Presentation and Discussion with Municipality of Los Cabos and Centro Mario Molina and SCI Energy Lab on March 24, 2014

Presentation and Discussion

1. Overview of Baja California Sur Aquifer Renewable Energy Desalination Project

2. Energy and water nexus in Baja region

3. Baja California Sur precipitation, aquifers and hydraulic sub-basins maps

4. Aquifers and other water resources and sustainability for quantity and quality

5. Presentation by Centro Mario Molina on water resource calculation methodology

6. Discussion of presentation

7. Possible next steps

Energy and Water Nexus

• Baja California Sur is arid region that relies on precipitation for water resources.

• This precipitation becomes groundwater and is collected in different aquifers.

• There is a public desalination concession in Los Cabos (2006). A second desalination concession has been proposed for Los Cabos, and an initial concession has been proposed for La Paz.

• Many hotels, golf courses and marinas have private desalination and waste water treatment.

• Most electricity is generated from diesel.

• While water resources and desalination are required to support economic growth, renewable energy has a role in those water resources.

Baja California Sur Precipitation 1971 to 2000

Baja California Sur Precipitation 2011

Baja California Sur Hydrologic Sub-basins

Baja California Sur State Aquifers

Baja California Sur Aquifers

• Further knowledge required of capacity and dimensions of aquifers for the Municipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz, including issues such as whether the aquifers are connected as aquifer systems.

• Sustainability of aquifer and aquifer systems can be considered for quantity factors (i.e., flow volumes, recharge, discharge, time, scale, permeability, storage, pressure).

• Sustainability of the aquifers and aquifer based on quality (i.e., land-based and coastal contamination, saline intrusion, and diffusion through aquifers and possibly connected aquifer systems).

Baja California Sur Study Region: Los Cabos and La Paz Municipalities

Geology of Baja California Study Region

Aquifers in Municipality of Los Cabos .

San Jose del Cabo: Surface land use and possible contamination of San Jose Aquifer

San Jose del Cabo

Desalination in Los Cabos Municipality

Los Cabos Municipality receives water from a desalination project operated under a concession.

Private desalination used to meet all or part of water demand for many hotels, resorts, golf courses and marinas located in Cabos San Lucas, San Jose Del Cabos, and the tourism corridor between these two urban centers.

Private Desalination in Los Cabos Municipality

La Paz Basin and Elavation Map

La Paz Basin Geology Model

La Paz Basin Precipitation Model

Las Paz Basin Distribution of Recharge Areas

Aquifers in Municipality of La Paz

La Paz Aquifers

• La Paz Aquifer in basin to the south and south east of Municipality of La Paz.

• The precipitation model shows that the heaviest precipitation occurs in higher areas away from coast.

• Precipitation runoff will flow towards the lower lands near La Paz.

• Best area for groundwater in basin may be in southeast fractured granite.

• Vulnerability to saline intrusion in coastal areas of La Paz basin.

Proposed Gold Mining Projects in Sierra De La

Luna Mountains and Aquifer/Basin Implications

• Estimated 1.7 million ounces of gold, worth more than $2 billion.

• Argonaut Gold San Antonio mine is largest with surface area of 46,000 hectares.

• Open pit heap leach mine with 7 hills tops and 200 M tonnes rock processed.

• 50 M tonnes rock to be processed with cyanide, 150 M tonnes piled in exposed hills.

• Naturally occurring arsenic in rock.

• Water concessions from nearby ranches, or use groundwater, seawater or desalinated water.

Argonaut Gold San Antonio Mining Concession

San Antonio Mine and Aquifer Impacts

• Historic mining and contamination in mountains and San Juan de Los Planes basin.

• Size and nature of proposed gold mining operations immense.

• San Juan de Los Planes is nearby agricultural region, and possible contamination risks for aquifer.

• Possible risks to La Paz Aquifer?

• Could it affect San Jose Aquifer?

Table re Possible Available Groundwater in Los Cabos MunicipalityThe table is based on 1 IMPLAN LOS CABOS (May 4th 2012) , and 2 Segunda Actualizacion del Plan Director de Desarrollo Urbano, San Jose Del Cabo y Cabo San Lucas B.C.S.2040 (Abril 2013). The tablealso does not address the sustainability of the aquifers, or quality issues in relation to these aquifers.* Based on previously authorized concession for Cabo Cortez resort, 35% of whose water needs were proposed to be met by the aquifer, and 65% be met by privately owned desalination. Though this resort was cancelled in 2011, a subsequent similar proposal has been made so this number is included to illustrate possible future water uses for this aquifer.

Concept San Lucas Aquifer (1)

(Mm3/Yr)

San Jose Aquifer(2)

(Mm3/Yr)

Santiago Aquifer(2)

(Mm3/Yr)

Average recharge 0.5 24 24.5

Committed natural discharge 3 4.6

Volume of ground water

concession

26.909 15.090517

Volume extracted in

technical study

26.2 13.2

Average available

groundwater

0 0 4.809483

Deficit (5.909) 0

Future authorized

concession

12.74*

Future deficit (7.9)*

Centro Mario Molina Background

The target is to achieve

sustainable planning and

management of cities, urban

development promoting low

carbon intensity schemes,

rational use of natural resources,

particularly water and energy.

Promoting sustainable

urban policies to boost

economic growth socially

equitable and

environmentally

responsible.

The Mario Molina Center for Strategic Studieson Energy and Environment is a non-profitindependent association, constituted in 2004to give continuity and consolidate in Mexicothe activities that throughout his life,Professor Mario Molina has accomplished. Itsmain purpose is to find practical, realistic andin-depth solutions to problems related withprotecting the environment, the use ofenergy and prevention of climate change, inorder to foster sustainable development.

• “The Mario Molina Center is a bridge of practical

solutions between science and public policies on

energy and the environment to foster

sustainable development”

I.2 Methodology (determination of gaps)

� Interpretation of results

Availability calculated (theoretical)

D = 29.29 Mm3/yr

Availability reported (real)D = 34.5 Mm3/yr

• The production (extraction) values reported by the OO are greater than the

volumes obtained following the methodology of calculation of CONAGUA.

• Surface water is not likely to benefit in full, however, to establish a baseline

was considered the theoretical value obtained from the calculation

methodology.

• Even when there is no water available in the aquifer, we continue drawing

water to supply the city.

Availability calculated ≠ Availability reported

Availability = VolREPDA + Dsurface

TAAF Consultoría Integral S.C. / www.grupotaaf.com

I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)

� Analysis bases (variation of water availability)

Year Period[yr]Availability

Mm3 ∆D [Mm3] ∆D [%]

2013 0 42.72 --- ---

2018 5 39.05 -3.67 -8.6%

2028 10 23.21 -15.84 -40.6%

2048 20 29.01 5.80 25.0%

2078 30 34.45 5.43 18.7%

Changes in water availability scenario A2

With the calculated values was obtained varying the availabilityfor each city (∆D%) considering climate change scenarios.

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

2009 2010 2011 2013 2018 2028 2048 2078

Mm

3

Year

Water availability






34.18

32.2822.86 21.46 21.74

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

2012 2022 2032 2042 2052 2062 2072 2082

Water availability [Mm3]

Year Period [Years] Availability

theoretical[Mm3] ∆D [Mm3] ∆D theoretical(%)

2013 0 34.18 --- ---

2018 5 32.28 -1.9 -5.60%

2028 10 22.86 -9.42 -29.20%

2048 20 21.46 -1.4 -6.10%

2078 30 21.74 0.27 1.30%

Year ∆D (%)AvailabilityM

m3

2010 34.51*

2011 -14.8% 29.40

2013 38.6% 40.75

2018 -8.6% 37.25

2028 -40.6% 22.14

2048 25.0% 27.68

2078 18.7% 32.86

� To obtain the variation of the actual availability of water, it wasapplied the theoretical ∆D% for each year to the amount of waterproduced by the OO in 2010.

Year ∆D (%)AvailabilityM

m3

2010 34.51*

2011 -0.8% 34.25

2013 0.0% 34.25

2018 10.4% 37.82

2028 8.9% 41.19

2048 -13.0% 35.84

2078 -18.2% 29.31

Variation of availability A2 scenario “Los Cabos”

Variation of availability A1B scenario “Los Cabos”

To calculate the gap variation, it was considered

the availability of the more adverse scenario (in

this case A2).

*Quantity of water produced according to information provided by the OOMSAPAS


� Analysis bases (variation of water availability

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2013 2018 2028 2048 2078

A2

A1B

Variation in the availability of scenario cc

Mm

3

Based on population growth scenarios, endowment per dayand drinking water coverage provided by the OO Los Cabos(OOMSAPAS), it was calculated the water demand [Mm3/year]

� Basis of analysis (demand calculation)


PARAMETER UNITYear

2013 2018 2023 2028

Population Inhab. 253,577 280,878 311,119 344,616

Drinking water coverage % 89.90% 90.80% 91.70% 92.50%

Annual production l/s 1,172 1,313 1,486 1,640

Annual production Mm3/año 36.96 41.39 46.3 51.73

Endowment l/inhab*día 444 444 444 444

consumption l/inhab*día 282 282 282 282

Annual increase in population inhab. 5,133 5,686 6,298 6,976

Required extraction l/s 26.4 29.25 32.39 35.88

Variation of drinking water coverage % 89.86% 90.85% 91.74% 92.54%






34.18

32.2822.86 21.46 21.74

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

2012 2022 2032 2042 2052 2062 2072 2082

Water availability [Mm3]

Year Period [Years] Availability

theoretical[Mm3] ∆D [Mm3] ∆D theoretical(%)

2013 0 34.18 --- ---

2018 5 32.28 -1.9 -5.60%

2028 10 22.86 -9.42 -29.20%

2048 20 21.46 -1.4 -6.10%

2078 30 21.74 0.27 1.30%

� To obtain the variation of the actual availability of water, it wasapplied the theoretical ∆D% for each year to the amount of waterproduced by the OO in 2013.

Variation of availability A2 scenario “La Paz”

Variation of availability A1B scenario “La Paz”

To calculate the gap variation, it was considered

the availability of the more adverse scenario (in

this case A2).*Quantity of water produced according to information provided by the OO SAPA



15.0

17.0

19.0

21.0

23.0

25.0

27.0

29.0

31.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mm

3

Año

Variation in the availability of scenario cc

Disponibilidad

(A2)

Disponibilidad

(A1B)

Year ∆D [%] Availability[Mm3]

2013 25.48*

2018 9.46% 27.89

2028 0.57% 28.05

2048 -6.61% 26.2

2078 -21.09% 20.67

Year ∆D [%] Availability [Mm3]

2013 25.48*

2018 -5.60% 24.07

2028 -29.20% 17.05

2048 -6.10% 16

2078 1.30% 16.21

Based on population growth scenarios, endowment per dayand drinking water coverage provided by the OO La Paz(SAPA), it was calculated the water demand [Mm3/year]

� Basis of analysis (demand calculation)


PARAMETER UNITYear

2013 2018 2023 2028

Population inhab. 235,268 273,005 316,795 367,609

Drinking water coverage % 97.50% 97.90% 98.20% 98.40%

Annual production l/s 953 1,106 1,283 1,489

Annual production Mm3/año 30.06 34.88 40.47 46.96

Endowment l/inhab*day 350 350 350 350

consumption l/inhab*day 210 210 210 210

Annual increase in population Inhab. 6,897 8,003 9,287 10,777

Required extraction l/s 27.94 32.42 37.62 43.66

Variation of drinking water coverage % 97.52% 97.86% 98.16% 98.41%

I.2 Methodology (determination of gaps)

� Results

30.1

34.9

40.5

47.0

25.524.1

21.26

17.0

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

2013 2018 2023 2028

Gaps

Demanda anual Disponibilidad (A2)

47%

Gaps

63%31

%15%

Mm3

II. 1 Identifying actions (benchmarking)

National average coverage

47.4% CONAGUA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Puerto

Peñasco

La Paz Celaya Mazatlán Tecate Puerto

Vallarta

Saltillo Los Cabos

17

30

8594 96 97 99 99

Micrometering (%)

$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$250.00

$300.00

$350.00

Mazatlán Puerto

Vallarta

Puerto

Peñasco

Saltillo Celaya Tecate Los Cabos La Paz

$67.50

$122.92

$162.80$177.80 $179.83

$210.40

$240.84

$323.80

$/m

on

th

Expenditure on water(rate of 20 m3)

Información PIGOO 2011

Information PIGOO 2011

Baja California Aquifer Renewable Energy Desalination Project: Possible Next Steps

Develop further understanding of aquifers and other water sources for Municipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz.

Explore desalination and waste water treatment projects, and role of renewable energy, in public and private projects in Municipalities of Los Cabosand La Paz.

Acknowledgements for Presentation

IMPLAN Los Cabos for digital maps, data, and information.

Centro Mario Molina for slides and presentation on water resources.

“Managing Arroyos in Los Cabos” by SCI Affiliated Researcher Eric Porse, in

cooperation with IMPLAN Los Cabos.

For further information contact:Dr. Magdalena A K Muir ([email protected])Associate Adjunct Research Scholar, Columbia Climate Center at Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York City,Visiting Scholar, Center Carbon-free Power Integration and Mangone Center for Marine Policy, University of Delaware,Research Associate, Arctic Institute of North America Associate Professor, Aarhus University & Centre for Energy Technologies

This presentation and research supported by Fulbright Canada under the Fulbright Canada- RBC Award; the Columbia Climate Center at the Earth Institute, Columbia University; the Center for Carbon-free Power Integration and the Mangone Center for Marine Policy in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, University of Delaware; and Aarhus University

Herning and the Center for Energy Technologies.

baja california sur aquifer, renewable energy, and desalination … · 2014-05-23 · baja...

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