baishali bakshi, adam doll, andy holdsworth operations ......baishali bakshi, adam doll, andy...
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Baishali Bakshi, Adam Doll, Andy Holdsworth
Operations Services Division
Ecological and Water Resources Division
Minnesota Department of Natural Resources
January 24, 2017
Outline of Talk Watercraft Inspection Program (WIP)
Data Description
Analysis Questions
Methods
Results
Maps
Insights
Watercraft Inspection ProgramEstablished: 1992
Goal: Prevent the spread of aquatic
invasive species (AIS) within Minnesota
• boater education
• watercraft inspections
• watercraft decontaminations
Total state spending on AIS in FY2015:
$10.5 million.
The WIP program: Over 40% of this
amount i.e. > $4 million.
Data Description Answers to survey questions asked to boaters
Years: 2013, 2014, 2015
Data changes over three years
Large datasets: Example: 2014 data
Rows / col = 230,426 / 75
Entry / Exit = 124,958 / 83,925
Waterbodies = 281
Analysis Questions
What are the violation rates at the
Through years
Boat level?
Lake level?
Where are inspectors finding the most zebra mussels?
How common are ‘repeat offenders’?
Risk Factors for AIS Violation Drain Plug (DP) in
Boat has been out of water for less than 24 hours
Boat has been in water for more than 24 hours
Didn’t see Inspector in a month or more
Launching again soon
Plants and Zebra Mussels (ZM) found: specify hand removal or decon needed
ZM stuck on vegetation found
Lake infested
Need further decontamination
Refused decontamination
1st Question/Risk Factor: Drain PlugDrain Plug Question-Entry Drain Plug Question-Exit
204,191
138,858
5,480 133,378
8,999195,192
Methods Code risk factors using R
Aggregate risk factors for entry and exit for each year
Present aggregated risk factors using charts at boat and
lake level
Prepare maps using
Analysis Results for ZM at lake level
Infested Waters shapefile
Spreadsheet on inspected lakes
Repeat offenders: Individual level analysis
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
2013 2014 2015
Drain Plug and ZM Violations in Minnesota
DP_Entry
DP_Exit
ZM_Entry
ZM_Exit
Drain Plug Violations for 2015Entry Exit
Boat Type
Drain
Plug is
Out
Drain
Plug is
In Total
Violation
% -
natural
wht
Violation
% -
imposed
wht
Canoe 4,799 84 4,883 2 1
Dock/Lift 505 6 511 1 1
Duckboat 774 49 823 6 6
Fishing Boat 119,120 5,329 124,449 4 2
Personal Watercraft 9,870 716 10,586 7 4
Pontoon 14,783 379 15,162 2 1
Runabout or Ski-Boat
with no Ballasts 38,709 2,185 40,894 5 3
Sailboat 1,676 67 1743 4 4
Wakeboard Boat with
Ballasts 4,956 184 5,140 4 3
Total 195,192 8,999 204,191 4 3
Boat Type
Drain
Plug is
Out
Drain
Plug
is In Total
Violation
% -
natural
wht
Violation
%-
imposed
wht
Canoe 3,339 20 3,359 1 0
Dock/Lift 491 2 493 0 0
Duckboat 857 21 878 2 2
Fishing Boat 90,849 4,074 94,923 4 2
Personal Watercraft 5,868 227 6,095 4 3
Pontoon 8,331 145 8,476 2 1
Runabout or Ski-Boat
with no Ballasts 20,090 920 21,010 4 2
Sailboat 1,282 9 1,291 1 1
Wakeboard Boat with
Ballasts 2,271 62 2,333 3 2
Total 133,378 5,480 138,858 2 2
Size class Weight
0-2000 1
2001-5000 0.8
5001-10000 0.7
10001-20000 0.6
20001-50000 0.5
More than 50000 0.4
ZM and Plant Violations: Exiting Boats
Most boats have more
violations for plants than
ZM
Fishing boats have
maximum plants
violations while Ski
boats stand out in ZM
violations
Both plant and ZM
violations are larger for
those boats that do not
have drain plug
violations but this is an
artifact of sampling.
Number of Boats
Boat Type
ZM not
found
ZM
found
ZM
(hand)
ZM
(decon)
Plants
(hand)
Plants
(decon)
Drain Plug
is Out Canoe 261 3 0 2 206 0
Dock/Lift 99 109 24 51 112 18
Duckboat 175 6 0 1 182 0
Fishing Boat 13,542 258 31 31 14,091 87
Personal Watercraft 1,014 46 0 6 1,020 9
Pontoon 1,570 201 43 71 1,559 92
Runabout or Ski Boat
with no Ballasts 3,981 460 44 106 4,158 145
Sailboat 356 8 1 5 262 84
Wakeboard Boat with
Ballasts 664 36 4 4 681 2
Drain Plug
is In Canoe 2 0 0 0 2 0
Dock/Lift 0 0 0 0 0 0
Duckboat 5 0 0 0 6 0
Fishing Boat 705 2 1 0 870 5
Personal Watercraft 55 0 0 0 51 1
Pontoon 21 0 0 0 25 0
Runabout or Ski Boat
with no Ballasts 240 20 0 5 250 6
Sailboat 3 0 0 0 3 0
Wakeboard Boat with
Ballasts 20 2 0 1 22 1
All Risk Factors for 2015 Exiting
Boats
Boat type DP in
In > 24
hrs
Launch
again
soon
Didn't
see
Inspector
Plants
-hand
Plant
s-
decon
ZM-
hand
ZM-
deco
n
ZM
on
veg
Lake
infested
Need
more
decon
Refus
ed
decon
Total
Score
Wtd.
Score
Fishing Boat 4,074 8,873 8,741 11,715 15,017 92 32 31 3 257 1,268 189 50,292 20,117
Runabout or Ski-Boat with no
Ballasts 920 4,623 911 2,324 4,418 151 44 111 4 480 501 157 14,644 8,786
Pontoon 145 3,339 591 1,696 1,655 95 43 71 1 201 331 75 8,243 5,770
Personal Watercraft 227 1,911 301 873 1,084 11 0 6 1 46 147 37 4,644 3,715
Wakeboard Boat with Ballasts 62 530 143 204 704 3 4 5 0 38 80 18 1,791 1,791
Canoe 9 515 28 244 265 84 1 5 0 8 22 2 1,183 1,183
Dock/Lift 20 58 171 493 208 0 0 2 0 3 12 3 970 970
Sailboat 2 213 71 29 112 18 24 51 0 109 13 0 642 642
Duckboat 21 33 95 99 188 0 0 1 0 6 13 1 457 457
Total Violation 5,480 20,095 11,052 17,677 23,651 454 148 283 9 1,148 2,387 482 82,866 43,432
Average Violation 609 2,233 1,228 1,964 2,628 50 16 31 1 128 265 54 9,207 4,826
Size class Weight
0-2000 1
2001-5000 0.8
5001-10000 0.7
10001-20000 0.6
20001-50000 0.5
More than 50000 0.4
All Risk Factors for Exiting Boats-Lake Level
Case # DP In BIW Launch Inspector Found
ZM
found
Plants-
hand
Plants-
decon
ZM-
hand
ZM-
decon
ZM on
veg
Lake
infested
More
decon
Refused
decon Total Boats #
27013311 53 326 68 133 1210 208 1084 60 12 48 0 208 72 30 3512 4224
18003401 77 920 192 247 739 0 737 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 2916 2392
27013303 32 337 42 100 717 223 604 56 6 46 4 223 93 39 2522 1458
27013309 83 120 72 95 834 78 791 18 5 9 0 78 45 16 2244 3331
18031203 75 660 113 114 409 25 387 4 5 7 0 24 25 10 1858 1631
11030501 133 507 99 267 232 44 180 3 11 19 0 44 81 59 1679 1835
10005902 37 36 163 216 576 1 557 2 0 0 0 1 31 6 1626 3571
27013302 39 213 42 102 490 86 428 32 8 17 1 86 45 13 1602 1683
18031201 94 652 90 156 233 53 182 1 7 38 0 53 5 2 1566 1200
10000201 2 15 54 66 672 0 658 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 1471 1696
Who is a Repeat Offender?
A response of ‘Yes’ to a question about a violation, being
recorded more than once for the same license plate
number.
For example: Plate# X said Yes to the question “Were
ZM found?”, three times.
Repeat Offenders for EntryID Boat type # ZM
Violations
Entering Water
body
Last visited Going to
041jgc Runabout (2) 2 Mississippi NA NA
312gkx Wakeboard
/Runabout
2 Minnetonka Minnetonka Minnewashta
503gjn Pontoon 4 Lower Prior Lower Prior Lower Prior
520rew Pontoon 3 Le Homme Dieu;
Victoria
Cowdry; Le
Homme Dieu
Le Homme
Dieu; Victoria
870jtl Runabout (2) 2 Minnetonka Minnetonka Minnetonka
ybb4897 Runabout (2) 2 Minnetonka NA NA
ybm5927 Dock
Lift/Pontoon
2 Christmas/Minneto
nka
Upper Prior;
Minnetonka
Christmas;
Minnetonka
17
Repeat Offenders for ZM-2015
Repeat offenders: 62Repeat offenders: 7
ZM Violators:
188
Entering
boats:
129,526
Exiting boats:
93,488
ZM violators: 964
Potential Insights
On average: 0.6% ZM violations and 4% DP violations in 2015.
Both types of violations are higher for exiting boats ZM for entry: 0.1%; ZM for exit: 1%
Fishing boats had the most plant violations while runabout boats had the most ZM violations
We found that a very small fraction of boats were repeat offenders for ZM, and these boats were mainly pontoon and/or runabout boats
We’re able to focus on a short list of lakes with a high tendency for ZM violations on exit. This will help prioritize inspection efforts for the most AIS prone lakes.
Recommendation: Recording a metric for AIS, such as #/lbs ZM found—valuable to understanding the distribution of AIS across lakes and boat types. It will also improve the ‘Violation Rate’ metric used in annual report.
Possible Future Steps Maps on risk factors other than ZM
Repeat offenders across categories
What is the relation between time spent on inspection and
violation rates for any risk factor?
Targeted analysis at specific infested lakes
Questions dividing Boaters in Survey
Things found for Entry Boat in water (<>) 24 hours
100,4722,508
5,377
57,128
48,870 5,070
5044,873
High-riskLow risk
Decontamination: 5%-8%
Decon for Entry Decon for Exit
1302,378
9,086152
707
9,740
Key point: The total number of exiting boats is lower than entering boats but a higher
percentage of exiting boats are decontaminated compared to entering boats.
DP and ZM Violations in Minnesota
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2013 2014 2015
ZM_Entry
ZM_Exit
DP_Entry
DP_Exit