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Bharti Airtel - BUY

Figure 6: Zain Africa operates in a large market with low penetrationCountry Population Penetration No of peers GDP / capita

Zambia 12.5 33% 2 1397

Niger 15.4 16% 4 691

Malawi 14.8 17% 1 850

Burkina Faso 15.8 23% 2 1259

Tanzania 45.8 33% 3 1352

Chad 11.5 19% 1 1670

Congo B 4.0 75% 2 4044

Gabon 1.4 123% 2 14747

Uganda 33.3 35% 3 1148

Sierra Leone 6.1 39% 3 728Madagascar 20.9 23% 2 995

DRC 67.5 14% 4 340

Kenya 39.9 48% 3 1735

Ghana 24.5 61% 4 1513

Nigeria 155.8 45% 3 2142

Source: Company, IIFL Research

Figure 7: In most of these countries, Zain leads the marketCountry EBITDA CapexSubs (mn)Ownership Mkt

Share

No 1 op No 2 Op

Zambia 97 51.6 2.9 79% 70% Zain MTN

Niger 53 43.4 1.4 90% 67% Zain Orange

Malawi 47 43.8 1.7 100% 72% Zain TNM

Burkina Faso 38 2.9 1.4 100% 51% Zain Telemob

Tanzania 79 39.3 4.8 60% 39% Zain Vodacom

Chad 44 35.1 1.2 100% 70% Zain Tigo

Congo B 43 38 1.4 90% 53% Zain MTN

Gabon 80 23.9 0.9 90% 62% Zain Libertis

Uganda 9 21.1 2.2 100% 37% MTN Zain

Sierra Leone 2 10.4 0.6 100% 46% Zain Africell

Madagascar 12 13.2 1.4 100% 38% Orange Zain

DRC 51 43.4 3.6 99% 45% Zain Vodacom

Kenya 14 47.8 2.2 95% 17% Safaricom Zain

Ghana -29.2 74 1.2 75% 9%

Nigeria 331 356.4 14.9 66% 25% MTN Zain

Total 871 844.3 41.9Source: Company, IIFL Research

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