bae urban economics - granicus
TRANSCRIPT
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LOYOLA CORNERS RETAIL ANALYSISC I T Y C O U N C I L P R E S E N TAT I O N
M A R C H 2 8 , 2 0 1 7
Los Altos, California
bae urban economics
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Purpose of study
Recap: 1990 Loyola Corners Specific Plan goals
Demographic profile
Macro retail trends
Retail potential in Loyola Corners
Loyola Corner SWOT analysis
Retail concepts to consider
Financial feasibility
Recommendations
AGENDA
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STUDY PURPOSEThe study will provide data and analysis to answer the following questions:
Retail sectors and types of retailers that are or would be viable at Loyola Corners?
What level of additional development (2 vs 3 stories) is needed to repurpose underperforming properties?
What would be the financial impact to redevelopment feasibility of not requiring parking for first floor retail?
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RECAP: 1990 LOYOLA CORNER SPECIFIC PLAN GOALS
Create attractive and functional shopping and commercial use facilities
Maintain the existing small, pedestrian scale of the area
Preserve and protect adjacent residential neighborhoods from traffic, noise, and visual impact
Provide a safe and effective multi-modal circulation and parking system
Encourage a mix of desirable neighborhood-serving commercial uses
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DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
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LOYOLA CORNER MARKET
AREA
Pal·o Alto
,~ E ~ ,~
Los Altos
..
- Woodland Plaza
* Loyola Corners
Competitive Retail Centers
Market Area (3-Minute Drive Time)
D Downtown Los Altos
Sunnyvale ~ I Remington -g
~ 0 I
tevens Creek
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POPULATION – MARKET AREA
+1,900 residents+800 households
2010 to 2016RecentGrowth
+1,700 residents+660 households
By 2021Forecast
29,300 residents11,000 households
2016 Today
+2,700 residents+1,400 households
2000-2016Growth
0 t '
0
tr
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KEY DEMOGRAPHIC DATALoyola Corners serves a community of families:
78% 71%
Loyola Corners Santa Clara County
% Family Households
39% 38%
% Households with Children under the age of 18
Loyola Corners Santa Clara County
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INCOME2016 estimated household income in Loyola Corner’s market area is significantly higher than the County average:
Loyola Corners $178,000
Santa Clara County
$99,200Loyola Corners has strong demographics to support retail
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LOYOLA CORNER’S RETAIL SECTOR
- ..... - ,_ _.,_ 11..--:i'"" -~ - • -=~ . . . - _.- .... -···- ,,.·_ 1" - - ~ ... ,-.~---. - - '1111. - .- - .- - ·.t;-~ ......... _ . .._
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Dublin
MARKET AREA COMPETITION
Livermore
Pleasanton
San Ramon
Walnut Creek
Pal'o Alto
IJ
r~~w ,~
E e:>
• Rancho
Shopping Center I~
Los Altos
* Loyola Corners
Competitive Retail Centers
Market Area (3-M inute Drive Time)
Downtown Los Altos
- Woodland Plaza
,....
Sunnyvale ~ 1 Remington -§
_g, 0 :r:
tevens Crekk
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MACRO RETAIL TRENDSUrbane suburbs
Commodity versus specialty retail
Lifestyle and hybrid centers
Omnichannel retail
Ground floor retail challenges
These trends influence the degree to which Loyola Corners can ultimately enhance its retail sector
Neighborhood centers in the market area are commodity centers
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RETAIL SALES – CITY LAGS COUNTY
$39.4 million in lost retail sales and $394,000 in retail sales tax revenue lost since 2009 Note: 2016 dollars
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
Sant
a C
lara
Cou
nty
(in $
000
Taxa
ble
Sale
s in
$00
0
Los Altos Santa Clara County- .......
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RETAIL SALES BY DISTRICT
Downtown has seen an overall increase in nominal taxable retail sales while El Camino Real has been declining-to-flat
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
Taxa
ble
Sal
es in
$00
0s
Downtown LosAltos
El Camino &Nearby
--
/ ' .................. -----.... '-- I ....____,_._.,__,..,.--A-
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RETAIL SALES BY DISTRICT
Loyola Corners has seen a decrease in nominal taxable sales overall in contrast to some other districts in Los Altos
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
Taxa
ble
Sal
es in
$00
0s
Loyola Corners
RanchoShopping Center
Foothill Plaza
Woodland Plaza
Village Court
---------
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RETAIL POTENTIAL
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SMALL PARCELS AND
FRACTURED OWNERSHIP
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PARCEL AND BUILDING INVENTORY
• 26 commercial buildings in Loyola Corners
• Primarily one-story structures built between 1940s and 1960s (70% of total)
• Undistinguished and eclectic architectural mix
• ‘Sea of asphalt’ feeling
• No landscaping
• Average building/shop size only 3,000 square feet
• Many buildings too small for regional or national credit retailers
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WEAKNESS• Older building stock w/unremarkable
architecture• Fragmented parcels and ownership• No landscaping and ‘sea of asphalt’
parking
STRENGTH• Strong market support for
neighborhood retail• High household incomes • Unique history• Good location w/access to
residential neighborhoods
Opportunities• Older, functionally obsolete existing
buildings = low cost basis for redevelopment
• High residential values can support mixed use development
• Encourage parcel consolidation and new public amenities w/bonus density
Threats• Retail sector quickly evolving• Long term retail consolidation
a constraint on space demand• Risk of further economic
decline w/out redevelopment
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RETAIL CONCEPTS TO CONSIDER• Loyola Corners as a ‘Neighborhood Village,’ ‘Commons,’ or
‘Third Place’
• Loyola Corners is presently one of several ‘commodity’ neighborhood-serving retail centers in Los Altos
• Consider re-positioning Loyola Corners to differentiate it from other traditional neighborhood centers –and downtown– by offering unique setting and public amenities
• BAE has identified a number of ideas and concepts that Los Altos could consider
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CONCEPTS FOR LOYOLA CORNERS
Park Valencia @Santana Row, San Jose CA
Mojo Bicycle Café, San Francisco CA Westbrae Biergarten, Berkeley CA
Rockridge Market Hall, Oakland CA
Farmer’s Market @Marin County Mart,Larkspur CA
Planting Beds @The Willows ShoppingCenter, Concord CA
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FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY
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ECONOMICS OF REPURPOSING LOYOLA CORNERS
• A project ‘pencils out’
• Revenues exceed expenses
• A market rate of return on investment
What is development feasibility?
• Permitted use
• Land cost
• Hard and soft costs
• Interest rates
Key factors
• Sales price per sq. ft.
• Rental rates
• Capitalization rates
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THREE SCENARIOS TESTED
Prototypical Project• 979, 987 & 991 Fremont
• .67 acre
• 10,700 sq. ft. existing improvements
Scenario #1
10,000 SF replacement retail
14 residential condominiums
2 stories
Scenario #2
5,000 SF Reduced retail
14 residential condominiums
2 stories
Scenario #3
10,000 SF Replacement retail
24 residential condominiums
3 stories
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FINANCIAL RESULTS
Scenario #1
Revenue does not cover
development costs
Feasibility gap: -$3.4 million
Scenario #2
No developer return
Feasibility gap: -$2.0 million
Not feasible
Scenario #3
Revenues cover development costs
Residual value:+1.1 milion
Feasible
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PRO FORMA OBSERVATIONS
Adding a 3rd story results in financial feasibility
In all three scenarios, the retail component of the project does not pencil out –rents are too low to justify replacement
Reducing parking requirements, helps, but does not solve this problem
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RECOMMENDATIONS
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RECOMMENDATIONS
#1: Explore methods to incentivize parcel aggregation w/density bonus
#2: Adopt specific and prescriptive Loyola Corners Design Standards
#3: Identify and amend zoning and development standards to allow for non-traditional retail concepts
#4: Expand the amount of residential permitted within the plan area
#5: Consider vacating B Street to encourage development of a public space or amenity
#6: Revise allocation of service retail for second floor location
#7: Provide flexibility to height limits to encourage improvements
BAE formulated a number of recommendations for consideration:
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THANK YOU
QUESTIONS?