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Back-casting approach and modeling for low-carbon city
scenarios
Kei GOMI Kyoto University
International Workshop on Urban Energy and Carbon Modeling in Rapidly Urbanizing World
11th Mar. 2011. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
2
Contents
Backcasting approach
Phase 1: Extended snapshot tool
Phase 2: Backcasting tool
Lessons learned from application
2
2
3
Backcasting Approach
3
Vision
Socio-economic indicators
Energy demandGHG emissionsLC measures
Target year
RoadmapSchedule of measuresCost to implement measuresGHG emissions reductionsAncillary benefit of measures
Present
Scenario
4
Backcasting Approach
4
Vision
Socio-economic indicators
Energy demandGHG emissionsLC measures
Target year
RoadmapSchedule of measuresCost to implement measuresGHG emissions reductionsAncillary benefit of measures
Present
Scenario
Static model
Dynamic model
1
2
5
Procedure to develop LCS scenarios
(1) Establish the framework
(3) Socio-economic scenario
(4) Collection of low-carbon measures
(5) Estimating a snapshot using ExSS
(6) Developing a roadmap
(7) Setting quantitative information of measures
(8) Estimating a roadmap using BCT
Base year, target year, area, lcs target etc.
Narrative scenario, Socio-economic parameters in
the target year
Information of low-carbon measures
Socio-economic variables, Energy demand, GHG emissions, LC measures
Schedule of measures, Input resource, GHG emission reduction in every year
Indirect measuresRelations between
measuresGrouping into actions
Input resource, Integrated effect, Shortest periodEarliest starting year
Upper bound of resource
(2) Collection of the base year information
Socio-economic statistics, Energy statistics, etc
1. Vision 2. Roadmap
5
6
Phase 1. Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) A static, accounting type model
Consists of simultaneous equations with about 6000 variables
Mainly for local LCS scenarios, but can be applied for initial analysis of national ones.
It describes relations between;– Demography, Life style, Economic activity, Transport demand– Energy demand & supply side technology, – Energy consumption and CO2 emissions from all activities within
boundary (similar with “Geography Plus”)
Quick calculation (approx. 1 min. GAMS) Can be used with other models
7
Estimation flow
Wage Income
Export by goods
Government expenditure
Investment
Import ratio
Input coefficient matrix
Labor productivity Labor participation ratio
Household size
Consumption pattern
Demographic compositionTaxation and social
security
Floor area per output
Freight generation per output
Transport distance
Modal share
Trip per person
Trip distance
Modal share
Energy service demand per driving force
Fuel shareEnergy efficiency
CO2 emission factor
IO analysis
Output by industry
Consumption
Labor demand Population
Number of householdOutput of
commercial industry
Commercial building floor
area
Freight transport demand
Passenger transport demand
Population
Energy service demand
Output of manufacturing
industry
Exogenous variablesParameters
Endogenous variables
Final energy demand
Energy demand (DPG)
Central power generation (CPG)
Energy demand (CPG)
Primary energy supply
Dispersed power generation (DPG)
CO2 emssions
Energy efficiency DPG
Energy efficiency (CPG)
Fuel share (CPG)
Transmission loss (CPG)
Own use (CPG)
Energy end-use device share
Energy end-use device energy efficiency
Carbon sink
8
ExSS and other AIM models
8
Input coefficient
Capital formationExport by goods
Gov. expenditureImport ratio
Floor area per output
Energy service demand per driving force
Fuel shareEnergy efficiency
CO2 emission factorCarbon sink
Labor productivity
Labor participation ratio
Household size
Consumption pattern
Demographic composition
Taxation and social security
Freight generation per output
Transport distance
Modal share
Trip per person
Trip distanceModal share
Energybalance table
IO table
Labor/populationbalance table
Transportdemand …etc
LC measuresportfolio
Householdaccount
GHG emissionsinventory
Transport & land use:- Population distribution - Share of vehicles** - Urban/rural development plan**- Construction of infrastructure**- Nature conservation area- Renewal of building stock
** Sometimes regarded as LC measures/
Economy:- Economic growth level- Basic industries in the region- Fiscal policy- Private investment including FDI- Technological development- Consideration of environment
Household:- Demographic structure- Sense of value- Balance of work & life - Consumption style- Living style- Education- Time use
Energy*:- Technological development- Availability of energy resource- Fuel price- Power supply policy- Behavior change- Awareness of people & business
*Related to selection of LC measures.
AIM/enduse
House and building dynamics model
Macro-economy model
Industrial structure
Energy supply model
Technological evelopment Education
Traffic demandModel
Population/household dynamics model
Household productionand lifestyle model
Land use plan
Lifestyle
LC measures
LC measures
LC measures
LC measures
Key scenario elements to be assumed
Detailed assumptions without formal model
Element models in AIM tools
Parameters/exogenous variables to be input
Endogenous variables
Output of ExSS
IO analysis
Wage Income
Output by industry
Consumption
Labor demand Population
Number of household
Output of commercial
industry
Commercial building floor area
Freight transport demand
Passenger transport demand
Population
Energy demand
CO2 emission
Output of manufacturing
industry
Introduction of counter measures to be reflected
Power generation
Fuel shareEnergy efficiency
Own useTransmission loss
9
Phase 2: Backcasting Tool
Based on constraints and input information of measures, BCT estimates,– Schedule of measures– Emission reduction pass– Annual input resource (financial and human)
It also considers time needed for R&D, developing financial mechanism, social decision making, etc.
Integrated effect is also considered. 9
10
Application
Completed – Kyoto city, Japan– Shiga prefecture, Japan– Johor (Iskandar Malaysia),
Malaysia– Putrajaya, Malaysia– Thailand – Ahmedabad, India– Indonesia– Vietnam
Proceeding/plannning– Ratchaburi, Thailand– Higashi-ohmi, Japan– Nagasaki, Japan– Hanoi, Vietnum– Guangzhou, China– Bhopal, India– Bangladesh– Cambodia
10
11
Kyoto city: Vision
11
Socio-economic indicators GHG emissions
258 474 577 349
504
566 756
421
1506
1689 1655
819
2080 1256
1674
1276
1680 2204
2420
900
1740 1826
1815
821
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1990 2005 2030 BaU 2030 CM
CO
2em
issi
on
s (k
t-C
O2)
Residential
Commercial
Industry
Passenger Transport
Freight Transport
Waste incineration
7768 8015
8897
4586
2005 20302030/2005
Population (104) 147 140 0.95
No. of householdｓ (104) 65 65 0.99
GDP (bill yen) 6124 8305 1.36
GDP per capita (mill yen/capita)
4.15 5.94 1.43
Gross output (bill yen) 9938 1340
0 1.35
Primary industry 17 19 1.13
Secondary industry 2735 3542 1.30
Tertiary industry 6947 9507 1.37
Passenger transport (mill p-km)
9251 8192 0.89
Freight transport (mill t-km) 3484 4571 1.31
12
Low-carbon measures
12
Contribution to CO2 emissions reduction (compared to Frozen)
Direct measures
32
500
120
40
974
174
194
64
38
237
271
232
177
156
874
120
228
0 400 800 1200
Energy- saving behavior
Improvement of energy efficiency
Fuel shift & Natural energy
Energy- saving behavior
Improvement of energy efficiency
Fuel shift & Natural energy
Improvement of energy efficiency
Fuel shift
Eco- driving
Modal shift
Improvement of energy efficiency
Fuel shift & Natural energy
Improvement of energy efficiency
Fuel shift & Natural energy
Reduction of emissions per power generation
Forest absorption
Reduction of waste incineration
Res
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CO2 emissions reduction (kt- CO2)
Sector Low- carbon countermeasure Data SourceCategory
(*)Emissions reduction
(kt- CO2)Action
(**)
Air conditioner 50.1 3(***)
Highest energy efficiency air conditioner COP 6.60 2 E Diffusion ratio (cooling and heating) 50%High energy efficiency air conditioner COP 2.54 1 E Diffusion ratio (cooling and heating) 50%
High energy efficiency kerosene heating COP 0.88 1 E Diffusion ratio (heating: kerosene) 80% 12.9 3High energy efficiency gas heating COP 0.88 1 E Diffusion ratio (heating: gas) 80% 25.8 3High energy efficiency oil water heater COP 0.83 1 E Diffusion ratio (hot water: oil) 70% 6.1 3Gas water heater 55.0 3
Latent heat recovery- type water heater COP 0.83 1 E Diffusion ratio (hot water: gas) 50%High energy efficiency gas water heater COP 0.83 1 E Diffusion ratio (hot water: gas) 50%
Heat pump water heater COP 4.50 3 E Diffusion ratio (hot water: electricity) 70% 48.9 3High energy efficiency gas cooker Thermal efficiency (base year= 1) 0.55 1 E Diffusion ratio (cooking: gas) 70% 12.3 3High energy efficiency IH cooker Thermal efficiency (base year= 1) 0.86 1 E Diffusion ratio (cooking: electricity) 70% 8.0 3Fluorescent light
LED (substitute fluorescent light) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 2.67 1 E Diffusion ratio 50% 24.1 3Hf inverter fluorescent light Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 1.33 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%
Incandescent light 51.5 3LED (substitute incandescent light) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 8.70 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%Bulb- type fluorescent light Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 4.35 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%
Refrigerator 72.1 3Super high energy efficiency refrigerator Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 2.92 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%Highest energy efficiency refrigerator Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 2.33 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%
TV 31.9 3LCD TV Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 2.27 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%Highest energy efficiency TV Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 1.54 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%
House insulation 100.7 2Next generation level Thermal loss (base year= 1) 0.36 4 E Diffusion ratio 40%New standard Thermal loss (base year= 1) 0.43 4 E Diffusion ratio 40%
Energy- saving behavior Energy service demand reduction ratio 10% 5 B Diffusion ratio 25% 32.4 3Photovoltaic generation Potential(ktoe) 295 6 S Diffusion ratio 10% 26.9 5Solar water heating Potential(ktoe) 1037 6 S Diffusion ratio (hot water: all) 10% 38.8 5Other energy efficiency improvement E 0.2 3Other fuel shifting S 27.3 3Total 625.1Air conditioner (cooling only) 41.3 4
Super high energy efficiency air conditioner (cooling only) COP 5.00 2 E Diffusion ratio (cooling: electricity) 50%Highest energy efficiency air conditioner (cooling only) COP 4.07 1 E Diffusion ratio (cooling: electricity) 50%
Cooling (gas) 19.1 4High energy efficiency gas heat pump COP 1.60 8 E Diffusion ratio (cooling: gas) 40%High energy efficiency absorption tiller (gas) COP 1.35 7 E Diffusion ratio (cooling: gas) 40%
High energy efficiency absorption tiller(oil) COP 1.35 9 E Diffusion ratio (cooling: oil) 70% 3.2 4High energy efficiency boiler (oil) COP 0.88 1 E Diffusion ratio (heating: oil) 70% 25.1 4High energy efficiency boiler (gas) COP 0.88 1 E Diffusion ratio (heating: gas) 70% 75.4 4Air conditioner (heating only) 67.0 4
Super high energy efficiency air conditioner (heating only) COP 7.40 2 E Diffusion ratio (heating: electricity) 90%Highest energy efficiency air conditioner (heating only) COP 4.44 1 E Diffusion ratio (heating: electricity) 10%
High energy efficiency oil water heater COP 0.87 1 E Diffusion ratio (hot water: oil) 70% 16.0 4Gas water heater 64.2 4
High energy efficiency gas waterheater COP 0.87 1 E Diffusion ratio (hot water: gas) 50%Latent heat recovery- type water heater COP 0.85 1 E Diffusion ratio (hot water: gas) 50%
CO2 cooling medium water heater COP 3.00 1 E Diffusion ratio (hot water: electricity) 100% 64.2 4High energy efficiency gas cooker Thermal efficiency (base year= 1) 0.55 1 E Diffusion ratio (cooking: gas) 70% 27.0 4IH cooking heater Thermal efficiency (base year= 1) 0.86 1 E Diffusion ratio (cooking: electricity) 70% 11.6 4Incandescent light 131.6 4
Timer controlled LED (substitute fluorescent light) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 3.95 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%Illumination controlled LED (substitute fluorescent light) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 3.36 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%
Incandescent light 20.6 4LED (substitute incandescent light) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 4.55 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%Bulb- type fluorescent light Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 4.55 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%
High- intensity evacuation light Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 4.18 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 0.5 4Large scale computer (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 1.18 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 3.1 4Personal computer (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 2.47 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 3.3 4Copier (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 1.45 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 0.9 4Fax machine (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 1.45 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 0.6 4Printer (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 1.45 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 1.2 4Elevator (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 4.01 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 5.4 4Ventilation 50.1 4
with energy- saving fan Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 2.00 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%with low- pressure duct Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 1.82 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%
Vending machine (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 2.17 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 11.5 4Traffic light (LED type) Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 3.75 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 1.4 4High energy efficiency transformer Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 2.53 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 13.3 4Other electric appliances 61.2 4
30% energy- saving type Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 1.43 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%10% energy- saving type Electricity consumption (conventional type= 1) 1.11 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%
Building insulation Thermal loss (base year= 1) 0.50 1 E Diffusion ratio 100% 231.1 2BEMS Energy demand reduction ratio 10% 10 E Diffusion ratio 25% 24.4 4Energy- saving behavior Energy service demand reduction ratio 10% 5 B Diffusion ratio 25% 40.3 4Photovoltaic generation Potential(ktoe) 295 6 S Diffusion ratio 10% 26.9 5Solar water heating Potential(ktoe) 1037 6 S Diffusion ratio (hot water: all) 5% 49.6 5Other fuel shifting S 70.8 4Total 1161.8Energy efficient equipments E 184.7 4
High energy efficiency boiler Thermal efficiency(base year= 1) 1.09 11 Diffusion ratio 80%High energy efficiency furnace Thermal efficiency(base year= 1) 1.67 12 Diffusion ratio 80%High energy efficiency morter Electricity consumption(base year= 1) 1.25 11 Diffusion ratio 80%Inverter control Electricity consumption(base year= 1) 1.05 11 Diffusion ratio 80%
Fuel shifting From oil to gas S Shifting ratio 60% 63.9 4Increase in the ratio of seasonal vegetable production Ratio of CO2 emissions against non- seasonal vegitable produc 0.7 17 E Ratio of selling seasonal vegitables 36.2% 0.3 4Increase in the ratio of wooden buildings Ratio of CO2 emissions against non- wooden buildings 0.6 17 E Diffusion ratio 30% 9.0 4Total 257.9Vehicle 270.7 1
Hybrid vehicle Fuel cost (conventional type= 1) 0.6 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%High energy efficiency vehicle Fuel cost (conventional type= 1) 0.8 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%
Modal shift From vehicle to; B 236.7 1Intra area trip walking and bicycle Shifting ratio 15%
train and bas Shifting ratio 30%Inter area trip bicycle Shifting ratio 10%
train and bas Shifting ratio 30%Trip to outside of the city train Shifting ratio 30%
Bio fuel From oil to bio fuel S Diffusion ratio 20% 231.7 5Eco- driving Fuel efficiency improvement ratio 24% 13 B Diffusion ratio 20% 37.8 1Total 776.9Vehicle 176.9 1
Hybrid vehicle Fuel cost (conventional type= 1) 0.6 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%High energy efficiency vehicle Fuel cost (conventional type= 1) 0.8 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%
Bio fuel From oil to bio fuel S Diffusion ratio 20% 156.2 5Total 333.1Bio- methanol power generation 17 production of electricity (ktoe) 18.8 53.8 5Reducing the amount of waste incineration 17 Rate of CO2 emissions reduction 40% 228.1 3, 4Improvement of CO2 intensity of power generation CO2 emission per generation (tC/toe) 0.78 873.9 (****)
Fuel shifting 14Generation efficiency improvement
Coal Generation efficiency 48% 15Gas Generation efficiency 55% 16
Total 4310.7
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13
A system of 130 measures
13
TDM implementation
Designing pedestrian transit mallPavement wideningUse of pedestrian transit mall
Construction of car- parkManagement of car- parkPromotion of park and ride
Study on road pricingConstruction of road pricing facilityImplementation of Road pricingReducing vehicle inflow
Introducing IC cardImprovement of public transport timetableMore convenient terminalIncrease of public transport use
Public bicycle parking areaOrdinance of bicycle parking area on commercial buildingsPlanning subsidy scheme on bicycle parking areaSubsidize bicycle parking areaIncrease of bicycle parking areaPromotion of bicycle parking areaIncrease of bicycle use
Implementation of KICS- LLC*1
model projectIncrease of KISC- LLC projectIncrease of railway use
Planning of LRT*2 systemConstruction of LRT systemOperating LRTUsing LRT system
Board of bus using system promotionIncrease of bus lanePromotion of bus lane systemIntroducing public transport priority systemIncrease of bus use
Campaign sightseeing using public transportPlanning intelligent bus transit systemOperating intelligent bus transitIncrease use of public transport by visitors outside of the city
Improvement of sightseeing information displayPublic transport information service by websiteIncrease use of public transport by visitors outside of the city
Construction of electric vehicle recharge stationsEco- vehicle promotionPlanning eco-vehicle subsidyEco- vehicle subsidyDiffusion of eco- vehicle
Training of eco-drivingDiffusion of eco- driving
WalkableCity, Kyoto
Mobility management
TDM promotion
Modal shift (automobile to railway or
bus)
Transit mall Park & Ride Road pricing
Increase of public
transport use
Improvement of
environment for the usage
of bicycle
Modal shift (automobile to railway)
Amenity in the usage of
railway
Light Rail Transit
Modal shift (automobile
to bus)
Bus priority
Modal shift of visitors
Sightseeing campaign
using public transport
Public transport
information service
Diffusion of eco- vehicle
Promotion of buying
eco- vehicle
Diffusion of eco- driving
Enlightenment for eco-
driving
Kyoto style Buildings and Forest
Management
Improvement of insulation
level in houses
Consulting service for
energy saving houses
CASBEE Kyoto
Improvement of insulation
level in business buildings
Improvement of emission intensity in
construction
Promotion of Wooden houses
Wooden public
buildings
Forest absorption
Forest management
Absorption of CO2 by
planting tree
Promotion of planting tree
on private space
Planting tree on public
space
Planning of consultation system for energy- efficient buildingsOperation of consultation system for energy- efficient buildingsDiffusion of better insulated houses
Design of CASBEE Kyoto systemOperation of CASBEE Kyoto system Holding training workshops of CASBEE Kyoto system Propagation of better insulated housesPropagation of better insulated offices
Planning Heisei Kyo- Machiyatype housingConstruction of Heisei Kyo-MachiyaprototypesImplementation of Heisei Kyo-Machiya type housing Diffusion of Heisei Kyo-Machiya type housing
Publishing guidance of wooden house specificationConverting public buildings to wooden ones
Implementation of Integrated forestry planImplementation of forestry management activation project
Operating subsidize system of tree plantingPlanting tree on private space
Planting tree on roadside
Low Carbon Lifestyle
Improvement of efficiency in residential equipments
Enlightenment in lifestyle
Environmental education Eco- point
Energy-saving
behavior in houses
Reducing municipal
wasteincineration
New recycling
plan
Encouragement of eco-household accountingEnergy saving consulting servicePromotion of eco- community associationDiffusion of energy saving labelingDiffusion of energy efficient home applianceDiffusion of energy saving behavior
Training of eco-supporters at Miyako Ecology CenterEnvironmental education in schoolImplementation of Children’s Eco- life Challenge ProjectDiffusion of energy efficient home applianceDiffusion of energy saving behavior
Operating eco-point system Diffusion of energy efficient home appliance
Implementation of new national recycling society planReducing municipal waste
Decarbonationof Industry
Improvement of efficiency in business equipments
Large emitter
programs
KES environmental management
system standard
Support for SME
Promotion of R&D
Energy- saving behavior in
business establishment
Corporate environmental philanthropy
Promotion of corporate
environmental philanthropy
Energy saving in
public buildings
Energy saving reform of
public buildings
Improvement of emission intensity in agriculture
Seasonal vegetable
promotion
Reducing industrial
solid waste incineration
New recycling
plan
Implementation of large programsDiffusion of energy efficient equipmentsDiffusion of energy saving managing system
KES*3
consultation and lectureBidding that gives preferential treatment to KES- certified companiesDiffusion of energy efficient business equipmentsDiffusion of energy saving behavior
Subsidy to small businessesFunding to small buisinessesDiffusion of energy efficient business equipments
R&D in environment+ nano cluster research organizationDiffusion of energy efficient home appliance developed in the nanoclusterDiffusion of energy efficient business equipments developed in the nanocluster
Implementation of KESC*4
Planning of public building reformation of energy saving systemsEnergy saving reformation of public buildings
Promotion of seasonal vegetable distributionImprovement of industrial production techniqueIncrease the ratio of seasonal Kyoto vegetable consumption
Implementation of new national recycling society planReducing industrial solid waste emission
Comprehensive Use of
Renewable Energy
PV/SWH
PV/SWH for public
buildings
Promotion of PV/SWH for houses
Fuel shift of automobile
(petroleum to biomass)
Sustaining BDF
production
Promotion of biofuel
Power generation by biomass
Bio methanol
power generation
Power generation by waste
incineration
Creating a installation specification of PV/SWH for public buildingInstallation of PV/SWH on public building
Subsidize system of PV Diffusion of PV devices
Collection of used cooking oil
R&D of Gasified methanol developmentSetting guideline of biofuel useDifferentiate taxation of biofuel useDiffusion of biofuel use in national scaleFuel shift of vehicle from oil to biofuel
R&D of Gasified methanolConstruction of bio methanol plantOperation of bio- methanol power generation
Power generation from solid waste incineration
Establishment of a Funding Mechanism
Promotion of options by
funds
Kyoto citizen environmental
fund
Forest environment
tax
Kyoto carbon offset
Operation of Kyoto citizen environmental fund
Design of forest environment tax systemImplementation of forest environment tax system
Development of Kyoto carbon offset model projectFull- scale operation of Kyoto carbon offset system
*1 KICS- LLC: Kyoto Information Card System, LLC*2 LRT: Light Rail Transit*3 KES: KES Environmental Management System Standard*4 KESC: KES Community
14
Promotion of KESC(KES community)
Implementation ofCO2 reduction action
plan in public buildings
A city of walking, KyotoEstablishment of a
Funding mecahnismLow-carbon
lifestyleCo-benefits of scenery
and low-carbonComprehensive use of
renewable energyLow-carboninnovationIndirect option
Direct option
Modal shift (from vehicles to trains and buses)
Shared street
Widening of pavements
Designing wider pavement
Diffusion of park and ride
Introduction of IC card to buses
Construction of bicycle parking areas
Modal shift (from vehicles to buses)
Intelligent bus transit
Establishment ofbus lanes Bus priority system
Discussion on Kyoto prefecture and Kyoto city joint conference
Introduction ofKICS-LLC
Modal shift (sight seeing)
Sightseeing promotion using public transport
advertisements
Improvement of sightseeing
information displays
Information service onwebsites
Diffusion of energy-efficientfreight vehicles
Subsidy to introduce energy-efficient freight vehicles
Diffusion of eco-driving
Education oneco-driving
Insulation of commercial buildings
Establishment of building code
Lectures and certification
of energy-saving advisors
CASBEE training
Institutional design of CASBEE-Kyoto
Insulation of residential buildings
Institutional design of energy-saving
housing consulting
Energy efficiency improvement in residential sector
Diffusion of energy-saving
labeling
Promotion of eco-community
associations
Diffusion of eco-household
accounting
Energy saving behaviorin the home
Expansion of “Children Challenging
Eco-life” project
Environmental education in elementary and junior high schools
Environmental education at
Miyako Ecology Center
Improvement of residents’ awareness
Selection of energy-efficienthome appliances
Residents’ conference on wooden houseing
Discussions by project team
Construction of prototypeand promotion
Preparation of prototype construction and promotion
Regulation and guidance of
wood utilization
Selection of facilities
Reduction of energy demand in construction
Wooden housing
Woodenpublic buildings Subsidy for
utilization of local wood
Promotion ofutilization of local wood
Expansion of utilizationof local wood
Subsidy for building greenery
Rooftop gardening Roadside trees
Carbon sinks (residential area)
Tree thinning plan
Integrated forestry plan
Tree thinning
Carbon sinks(forest)
Forest environmental tax
Discussion and propositionof ordinance by a project team
Energy-saving behaviorin commercial buildings
Submission of plansand reports by
specified corporations
Implementation of planing and reporting
system
Expansion of KES-certifiedcorporations
Education of KES(Kyoto environmental
management standard)
Energy savingconsultations and
subsidy
Energy-efficiency improvementof business equipments
ESCO project on public buildings
Selection of ESCOsupplier
Energy saving renovation of
public buildings
Survey on deteriorationof public buildings
Repair of public buildings
Energy-saving behavior in public buildings
Energy-efficiency improvement in public buildings
Formulation of CO2 reduction action plan
in public buildings
Construction of biogas
plants
Construction of gasified
methanol plants
Development ofefficient methane
fermentation technology
Biogas production from methane fermentation
Collectionof kitchen garbage
Gasified methanolproduction
Development of gasified methanol
synthesis technology
Expansion ofBDF production
Gasifiedmethanol
experiments
Reduction of energy demand for agriculture
Expansion of seasonal Kyotovegetable consumption
Promotion of seasonalKyoto vegetables
Improvement of growing techniques
Fuel shift of vehicles(from diesel oil to BDF)
Collection of used cooking oil
Reduction of wasteincineration
Formulation of new recycling
plan
Reduction of wastegeneration
Implementationof new recycling
plan
Diffusion of PV and solar water heaters
Promotion of power generation from waste
More efficientgeneration
facilities
Installations of PV and solar water heatersin private buildings
Subsidy for PV installation
Installations of PV and solar water heatersin public buildings
Establishment of guidelines
of PV installation
Establishment ofcitizens’ eco-fund
Operation of citizens’eco-fund
Expansion of fundingsources and investment
Operation of citycarbon offset scheme
Model project of citycarbon offset scheme
Modal shift (from vehicles to bicycles)
Expansion of materials of BDF
Collection of unused fat and oil
Fuel shift (from purchased electricity to biogas power generation)
Reduction of CO2 emission factor in power generation
Prerequisite option Partial prerequisite option
Accelerating option Harmonizing (parallel) option
Energy saving advisory service
Actions to which options belong
Modal shift (from vehicles to trains)
15
Roadmap
15
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
TDM implementation
Designing pedestrian transit mall
Pavement widening
Use of pedestrian transit mall
Construction of car- park
Management of car- park
Promotion of park and ride
Study on road pricing
Construction of road pricing facility
Implementation of Road pricing
Reducing vehicle inflow by road pricing
Introducing IC card
Increase of public transport use (by IC card)
Improvement of public transport timetable
Increase of public transport use (by timetable improvement)
More convenient terminal
Increase of public transport use (by more convenient terminal)
Public bicycle parking area
Ordinance of bicycle parking area on commercial buildings
Planning subsidy scheme on bicycle parking area
Subsidize bicycle parking area
Increase of bicycle parking area
Promotion of bicycle parking area
Increase of bicycle parking area
Implementation of KICS- LLC model project
43.8
32
32
32
11
11
11
TDM implementation
Designing pedestrian transit mall
Pavement widening
Use of pedestrian transit mall
Construction of car- park
Management of car- park
Promotion of park and ride
Study on road pricing
Construction of road pricing facility
Implementation of Road pricing
Reducing vehicle inflow by road pricing
Introducing IC card
Increase of public transport use (by IC card)
Improvement of public transport timetable
Increase of public transport use (by timetable improvement)
More convenient terminal
Increase of public transport use (by more convenient terminal)
Public bicycle parking area
Ordinance of bicycle parking area on commercial buildings
Planning subsidy scheme on bicycle parking area
Subsidize bicycle parking area
Increase of bicycle parking area
Promotion of bicycle parking area
Increase of bicycle parking area
Implementation of KICS- LLC model project
16
Lessons learned (Local gov.)
Difficulty of imaging far future for stakeholders
Training of local officers– At least one full-time officer – Whose background is engineering– Two years (Must be shorten)
Leadership of the mayor (governor) Collaboration of various bureau of local government
Stakeholders tend to think the estimation result is fixed number and can not be changed any more
17
Lessons learned (Technical)
Data is NOT always necessary for Designing future (Future data does not exist!)
Boundary: Similar with “Geography Plus”– Which boundary can reduce the emissions
most?
Stakeholders wanted to develop ONE scenario
18
Lessons learned (Researchers)
Local researchers must do modeling and scenario development. (Not me!)
At least 2 local researchers should be involved– A senior researcher who is influential to the
government– A young and smart researcher who is good at
quantitative modeling
19
More… Visit website to see our brochures:
http:// Papers
– Gomi, K., Shimada K., Matsuoka, Y., Natio, M. (2007), “Scenario study for a regional low-carbon society”, Sustainability Science, 2, 121-131.
– Shimada K., Gomi, K., Matsuoka, Y., (2007), “Developing a long-term local society design methodology towards a low-carbon economy: An application to Shiga Prefecture in Japan”, Energy Policy, 37, 4688-4703.
– Gomi, K., Shimada K., Matsuoka, Y., (2010), “A low-carbon scenario creation method for a local-scale economy and its application in Kyoto city”, Energy Policy, 38, 4783-4796.
– Gomi, K., Ochi, Y., Matsuoka, Y., (2010), “A concrete roadmap towards a low-carbon society in case of Kyoto city”, Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy Special Issue, 2, 31004.
2020
Seeking indirect options
Prerequisite measure
Accelerating measure
Direct masure
Prerequisite measure
Barrier
Barrier
No
Find a barrier disturbing it
Find a way to overcome the
barrier
Can we complete it by the target year?
Find a barrier making it slow
No
Find a way to overcome the
barrier.
Barrier
Can we start it immediately?