b2 b 2012_presentation-g.pesti
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4th Bi-Annual Border to Border Transportation ConferenceSouth Padre Island, TexasNovember 13-15, 2012
US-Mexico Cross-Border Freight Traffic Trends
Geza Pesti and Rafael Aldrete-SanchezCenter for International Intelligent Transportation Research
Texas A&M Transportation Institute
Significance• Imports from Mexico Using Land Modes of Transport (1996-
2011 average)
• Following the 2007 global financial crisis, U.S. trade sharply declined worldwide. • In 2009, imports from Mexico fall by 39.2%1. • Has there been a sustained recovery after 2009?
• Identify trends in freight activities across the US-Mexico border
• Quantify temporal and spatial variations in surface trade.
ObjectivesAnalyze cross-border freight activities by
• Mode of transport
• Commodities
• Border states
• Ports and destination states
Approach
Trans-Border Surface Freight Database of the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Primary Data Source:
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
100000000000
200000000000
300000000000
400000000000
Surface Trade between U.S. and Mexico
19% 18%11% 13%
23%
-5%-1%
0%
12%7%
13%5% 2%
-14%
28%
15%
Early 2000s recession
2007 global financial crisis
Imports57%
Exports43%
Surface Trade(2004-2011 average)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Millions USD
Import
Export
Surface Trade between U.S. and Mexico
Trade by Surface Mode
Truck82%
Rail16%
Other2%
Truck80%
Rail15%
Other5%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Millions USD
All Surface Modes
Truck
Rail
Import
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Millions USD
All Surface Modes
Truck
Rail
Export
Seasonal Variation
Surface Trade of US States with MexicoRanked Based on Value of Traded Goods (2005-2011)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Texas
CaliforniaMichigan
Arizona Illinois
Mill
ions
USD
Freight Flow by Commodities
Change in the freight value was evaluated based on six commodity groups2:
• Group 1: Food, beverages, agricultural commodities (HS-code: 1-24)
• Group 2: Minerals, chemicals, plastic, fossil fuels (HS-code: 25-40)
• Group 3: Wood, fabrics, paper products, books (HS-code: 41-71)
• Group 4: Metals, metallic materials (HS-code: 72-81)
• Group 5: Manufactured goods (HS-code: 82-96)
• Group 6: Other goods (HS-code: 97-99)
Top Five Ports of Entry
Over 80 % of cross-border trade between the US and Mexico is concentrated at the following five ports:
• Laredo, TX
• Hidalgo, TX
• El Paso, TX
• Otay Mesa Station, CA
• Nogales, AZ
Food, beverages, agricultural commodi-
ties
Minerals, chemicals, plastic, fossil fuels
Wood, fabrics, paper products, books
Metals, metallic goods
Manufactured goods
Other goods
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10
20112010200920082007
0 10 200 10 20 30 0 10
Laredo El Paso HidalgoOtay Mesa Nogales
Import from Mexico (Billion USD)
Import by Commodity Groups
Food, beverages, agricultural commodi-
ties
Minerals, chemicals, plastic, fossil fuels
Wood, fabrics, paper products, books
Metals, metallic goods
Manufactured goods
Other goods
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10
20112010200920082007
0 10 200 10 20 30 0 10
Laredo El Paso HidalgoOtay Mesa Nogales
Export to Mexico (Billion USD)
Export by Commodity Groups
Summary
Trends and spatial variations in US-Mexico cross-border freight by
• Mode of transport• Commodities• Border states• Ports and destination states
Results in: CIITR Research Brief
US-Mexico Cross-Border Freight Traffic Trends
Looked at…
Will be interesting to see ….• Can the 2010-2011 positive trends be
sustained?• What will be the impact of the predicted
“Fiscal Cliff” after January