Eureka! Ten Breakthrough Ideas for Enrollment Optimization

A good idea is where you find it(David Holmes)

TABS 2010 Annual ConferenceDavid Erdmann

Dean of Admission & Enrollment, Rollins CollegeDirector, Essex Institute for Independent School Enrollment Management

The future ain't what it used to be(Tom Petty)

Essex Institute

Idea # 1

The house always wins(Danny Ocean)

Idea # 1 Corollary– You can’t beat the house, but you can stay even if you play your cards right

The House Your Cards

• Demographic shifts

• Economic uncertainty

• Changing consumer behaviors

• Educational options

• Family satisfaction with your school and its market position

Essex Institute

Actual and Projected Percentage Changes in Public High School Graduates

(Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Connecticut Maine Maryland Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Rhode Island Vermont

Per

cent

age

State

2002-2008

2009-2014

California Enrollment Projections White Non-Latino (Source: California Dept. of Education)

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Numbers

Grade 1

Grade 5

Grade 9

Grade 12

Applicants

Visits

Accepts

Enrolled

Inquirers

Universe

Word of mouth Word of mouth Word of mouth

The power of word of mouth

Essex Institute

Top tier schools

Other tier schools

The power of market position

X

“Stronger” Reputation(1:4 Win:Loss Ratio)

“Weaker” Reputation(4:1 Win:Loss Ratio)

(1:1 Win: Loss Ratio)

Essex Institute

Idea # 2

Get it right the first time (Phil Crosby)

Idea # 2 Corollary– It’s not a mistake until it goes out the door

Essex Institute

Idea # 3 If you’re not thinking segmentation, you’re not thinking

(Tom Peters)

Females

Males

Day

Interna-tional

Boarding

Domestic Boarding

Market Segments

Essex Institute

Idea # 4

Change focus as family moves up the interest curve

Essex Institute Family Interest Level

Investment Required to Increase

Family Interest

100%

Awareness Curiosity Interest Desire Commitment Commitment0

45%

70%

80%

90%

Curiosity

Uni

vers

e

Stea

lth In

quire

r

Inqu

irer

Visi

t

Appl

y

Enro

ll

Gra

duat

e

Giv

e Ba

ck

Focu

s on sc

hool

Focus on stu

dent Focus on school and student

Idea # 5

Align financial aid with enrollment priorities

Idea #5 Corollary-The need-based financial aid model won’t work anymore

Essex Institute

Caucasian

Student of Color

Case Study: Changes in family contribution2007-2008 to 2008-2009 (random study)

Essex Institute

$

$

$

-$1,000

-$2,000

-$3,000

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

Pric

e In

crea

se

Cases

Tuition, Room, and Board 09-10 $47,540Tuition, Room, and Board 10-11 $49,400Change $1,860 Overall Avg. Net Change to EFC -$511

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

Case Study: Changes in family contribution 2009-2010 to 2010-2011 (random study)

Difference

$5,000

-$5,000

$10,000

-$10,000

-$15,000

$15,000

Price Increase

$5,000

-$5,000

$10,000

-$10,000

-$15,000

$15,000

Price Increase

$5,000

-$5,000

$10,000

-$10,000

-$15,000

$15,000

Price Increase

$5,000

-$5,000

$10,000

-$10,000

-$15,000

$15,000

Price IncreaseAll cases

Essex Institute

Cases

Idea # 6 Think net revenue

(David Breneman)

Idea #6 Corollary-Capping financial aid could result in lower enrollments and a loss in net tuition revenue

Essex Institute

Additional net revenue

Idea # 7 The middle class is an untapped market

Essex Institute

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

$0-7,000 $7-14,000 $14-21,000 $21-28,000 $28-35,000 >$35,000

Estimated Family Contribution (EFC)

Per

cen

t o

f E

nro

llm

ent

Family Contribution

Independent School Enrollment - Economic Bi-Modality

Why the “middle class” is underrepresented in independent schools

• Age of oldest parent = 40

• Number of children = 1

• Adjusted Gross Income = $130,000

• Federal taxes = $15,000

• Net income = $115,000

• Total savings = $100,000

• Family contribution = $35,800

Essex Institute

Idea # 8

Essex Institute

Leadership counts -

more than we think -

about it

(Essex Institute)

Key traits of most effective leaders

• Competency

• Forward looking

• Inspiring

• Integrity

Key practices of most effective leaders

• Model the way

• Enable others to act

• Challenge the process

• Encourage the heart

• Inspire a shared vision

(James M. Kouzes & Barry Z. Posher)

Essex Institute

Ten Critical Leadership Flaws(Jack Zenger)

1. Lack energy and enthusiasum

2. Accept their own mediocre performance

3. Lack clear vision and direction

4. Have poor judgement

5. Don’t collaborate

6. Don’t walk the talk

7. Resist new ideas

8. Don’t learn from mistakes

9. Lack interpersonal skills

10. Fail to develop others

Essex Institute

Idea # 9

The “baby on board” is now your colleague in the workplace and seeks your guidance and support

(Neil Howe)

What Millennials Want

Mentoring and coaching

Almost daily feedback

Project co-ownership (working in teams)

A solid work/life balance

A road map to success and job security

Seek work that is personally fulfilling

Essex Institute

Idea # 10

Personnel problems don’t go away until the people do

(John W. Hanes, Jr. while on the Yellowstone River, Montana)

Essex Institute

Ten Breakthrough Ideas 1. The house always wins2. Get it right the first time3. If you’re not thinking segmentation, you’re not thinking4. Change focus as family moves up the interest curve5. Align financial aid with enrollment priorities 6. Think net revenue7. The middle class is an untapped market8. Leadership counts…more than we think…about it9. The “baby on board” is now your colleague in the workplace and

seeks your guidance and support10. Personnel problems don’t go away until the people do

Essex Institute

Most things we worry about never happen(Tom Petty)

David Erdmann Derdmann@rollins.edu

Essexinstitute.comErdmannconsulting.com

Essex Institute